1

SURGE THEORY WEIGHS IN ON THE BALANCE OF EVIDENCE INTHE DEBATE ON GLOBAL WARMING

Bruce A. Leybourne, Naval Oceanographic Office, Geophysics Division, StennisSpace Center, MS 39522

[Follow up article to “Seismic Predictors of El Nino Revisited” by Daniel WalkerAmerican Geophysical Union EOS Transactions, Vol. 80, #26, June 22, 1999]

(Keywords: El Nino Southern Oscillation; Surge Tectonics; East Pacific Rise; CentralPacific Megatrend; Mantle Dynamics)

SUMMARY

Walker's observations reported in the article, Seismic Predictors of El Nino Revisited, correlateincreased T-phase seismicity along the East Pacific Rise (EPR) as a precursor to El Nino events.Associated phenomena preceded by seismic activity include episodic seafloor spreading and reducedpressure in the high-pressure cell of the Southern Oscillation (SO). These observations repeated seventimes since 1964 in a pattern unexplained by current geophysical theory. Two counterclockwise-rotatingmicroplates along the EPR, the Easter and Juan Fernandez microplates, are considered to be driven bydownwelling tectonic vortices, as explained by a more recent geophysical theory known as the surgetectonic hypothesis. These twin microplates underlie the high-pressure cell of the SO associated with ElNino. The tectonic vortices may be directly responsible for the pressure changes as they shape-shift fromglobal-scale geoid undulations. Shape-shifts create density oscillations within a vortex and may accountfor local microgravity change. This mechanism is analogous to pressure changes in atmosphericvortices, like tornadoes and hurricanes, which are known to affect local microgravity. Approximately 0.33ugal/mbar (gravity field to atmospheric pressure change) has been demonstrated and quantified as earlyas 1977 by Warburton and Goodkind using superconducting gravity meters. The “missing link” betweenseismicity and El Nino may well be tectonic microgravity-induced atmospheric pressure change orgravitational teleconnection. This mechanism for tectonic coupling to atmospheric pressure oscillationsthrough tectonic vortices may explain El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a known teleconnection ofother parameters such as sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure. The Central PacificMegatrend (CPM) connects planetary-scale tectonic vortices underlying the ENSO pressure cells. Itconnects the microplates on the EPR across basin to the Banda Sea tectonic vortex. The Banda Sea is aplate triple junction (between the Australian, Pacific, and the Southeast Asian plates) just north of Darwin,and it underlies the low-pressure cell of ENSO. Active surge channels or geostreams defined by thenewer surge model link these planetary-scale tectonic vortices. The geodynamic circulation patternbased on the newer model is similar to Walker circulation patterns known in atmospheric models. SirGilbert Walker (Walker, 1924; Walker and Bliss, 1932) first observed sea-level pressure variations of theSO teleconnection in the 1920’s. Based on new insights, a pilot study with cryogenic superconductinggravity meters placed near the twin microplates may detect the driving forces behind ENSO. The ordersof magnitude involved seem plausible and, if experimentally proven, would open new corridors of climateresearch, alleviating the focus on greenhouse gases as the primary source of climate change. Failure toexplain the El Nino link to seismicity casts doubt that the debate on “the human contribution to climatechange” will ever be clearly resolved. Dedicating research funds allocated to global warming issues canbe justified based on Walker’s observations alone, and research can be implemented by the Ridge Inter-Disciplinary Global Experiments (RIDGE) and Ocean Mantle Dynamics (OMD) science plans. These areNational Science Foundation initiatives that foster interdisciplinary scientific study of mid-ocean ridgeprocesses.

2

INTRODUCTION

EVIDENCE FOR TECTONIC LINK TOCLIMATE

Since 1964, there has been almost fourdecades of extensive work (Walker, 1988; 1995;1999; Walker and Hammond, 1990) on T-phase(teleseismic signals detected by hydrophonearrays placed in the ocean’s acoustic wave-guides) seismicity in the Pacific. This workdocuments earthquakes along spreading ridgesoccurring in swarms along hundreds ofkilometers. Specifically, these earthquakesoccur along the East Pacific Rise (EPR) nearEaster and Juan Fernandez microplates (Fig. 1).These earthquakes are associated withhydrothermal venting, magma outpourings, and

atmospheric high-index pressure phases ofSouthern Oscillation Index (SOI) and indicate aswelling of the entire ridge along the plateboundary. Walker found earthquakesassociated with these intense episodes ofseafloor spreading are precursors to thereduced atmospheric pressure in the El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) high-pressure cellover Easter Island. These observations repeatedseven times since 1964 in a pattern unexplainedby current geophysical theory. His 1999 articleconsiders the energy transfer mechanism for thecorrelation between earthquake activity and theatmospheric pressure drop to possibly bemicrogravity, as suggested by Leybourne in1996.

Fig. 1. Location Map: 1. Central Pacific Megatrend (CPM); 2. East Pacific Rise (EPR); 3. EasterMicroplate (EM); 4. Juan Fernandez Microplate (JFM); 5. Banda Microplate (BM); 6. Australian-AntarcticDiscordance (AAD); 7. Lake Baikal (LB). Inserts 3 – 7 are Tectonic Vortices Discussed (NAVOCEANO).

2

Fig 2. Bathymetry of East Pacific Rise near Easter and Juan Fernandez Microplates. Note area off RidgeIsland Chains Indicating Incoming Geostreams from the Central Pacific Megatrend (NAVOCEANO).

GEOSTREAM SURGE THEORY

NEW GEOPHYSICAL INTERPRETATION

The Easter and Juan Fernandezmicroplates (Fig. 2), rotate clockwise on theEPR (Searle et al., 1989; Larson et al., 1992;Bird, 1994). They are considered to be drivenby downwelling tectonic vortices (Fig. 3a andFig. 3b, Source: Major Shared Resource Center-

MSRC), as explained by a more recentgeophysical theory known as the surge tectonichypothesis (Meyerhoff, et al., 1992, 1996).These twin vortices underlie the high-pressurecell of the Southern Oscillation (SO) associatedwith El Nino. The Central Pacific Megatrend(CPM) (Smoot and Leybourne, 2001, in press,Fig. 1 and Fig. 2) connects planetary-scale

2

tectonic vortices underlying the ENSO pressurecells (Leybourne, 1998a).

Fig. 3a. Generic Downwelling Vortex UnderliesEaster and Juan Fernandez Microplates. ArrowsRepresent Spreading Direction from GeostreamContraction/Expansion or Surges (MSRC).

Fig. 3b. Thin Upper Line RepresentsAsthenosphere Axial Counterflow Flow andExplains why no Narrow Focused Zone ofUpwelling along the Ridge from the Deep Mantlewas Found in Ridge Experiments (MSRC).

The path of the CPM begins in theBanda Sea region and passes through structuralfeatures of Irian-Jaya, the Van Rees, and theMaoke Mountains of New Guinea. The BandaSea is a plate triple junction (between theAustralian, Pacific, and Southeast Asian plates)just north of Darwin and is considered anupwelling mantle vortex (Fig. 4a and Fig. 4b)underlying the low-pressure cell of ENSO(Leybourne and Adams, 1999). The CPM thencontinues along the north of the western Pacifictrenches through the southern portion of theOntong-Java Plateau. The Vityaz Trench

System then extends over 2500 km in the formof the Kilinailau, the North Solomon, the Ulawan,and the Cape Johnson trenches. Themegatrend appears to splay eastward along aflowing magma regime. The GalapagosFracture Zone gets a fresh infusion of magmafrom the active Line Islands that run south-southeast at the Tuamotu Ridge, and the zonediverts eastward as a massive ridge whichchanges to the north fork of the Easter FractureZone. This trend continues to the Eastermicroplate, or vortex structures on the EPR. Itconnects the EPR across basin to the BandaSea tectonic vortex.

Fig. 4a. Note Hurricane Symbol in Bathymetryof Banda Microplate. The AsthenosphereCounterflow Upwells in the Central VortexFlowing Westward along Indonesian Island Arc(NAVOCEANO).

Fig. 4b. Artist Conceptualization Under Seafloorof Deep Mantle Upwelling and Stream FlowHypothesized to Form Banda VortexGeomorphology. Viewing Direction North Sameas Fig. 4a. (MSRC).

2

Active surge channels, or “geostreams,”defined by the newer surge model link theseplanetary-scale tectonic vortices. The originallead for a trans-Pacific megatrend was from theworks of the late A.A. Meyerhoff. He broughtthis region to attention with the publication ofSurge Tectonics: A New Hypothesis of EarthDynamics in 1992. This insight was based onhis many years of field study for oil exploration inSoutheast Asia, the former USSR, and China,

as well as his background in fluid dynamics.Additional evidence of the CPM includes first-order trends of high-pass-filtered satellitealtimetry data from the Geodetic Earth-OrbitingSatellite (GEOSAT, Fig. 5), revealing across-basin trends in the gravity geoid (Sandwell et al.,1995; Leybourne and Smoot, 1997; Smoot,1999). Also there is seismicity within the interiorof the Pacific midbasin established with T-phaseseismic hydrophone arrays (Walker, 1989).

Plate tectonic investigators must use adhoc explanations for the CPM and to explainseveral other lines of geological evidence.Paleoclimatic data, specifically the distribution ofancient evaporites, carbonate rocks, coals, andtillites, along with fossil faunas and florasindicate the present position of the rotationalaxis, continents, and ocean basins have beenfairly constant somewhere between 570–1,600

million years (Meyerhoff and Meyerhoff, 1972a).Another remarkable line of evidence isundeformed sediment in many island arc trenchfills and fracture zones crossing the ridges.These sediment layers should be deformedsubstantially if subduction and seafloorspreading take place, as plate theory purports(Meyerhoff and Meyerhoff, 1972a; Choi, 1997).

Fig. 5. Pacific Ocean Basin Structural Trends Based on High-Pass Filtered GEOSAT Data in LambertEqual Area Projection. Follow the Central Pacific Megatrend from the Banda to East Pacific RiseVortices and Note Eastward Splaying. Compiled by Smoot in 1995 (Smoot and Leybourne, 1997).

2

A CASE FOR GEOSTREAM FLOW ANDVORTEX ANALYSIS

Easter Island and Juan Fernandezmicroplate rotations are driven by shear alongthe edges from relative motion of thesurrounding major plates (Pacific, Nazca, andAntarctic plates) like roller bearing, asinterpreted with the plate tectonic hypothesis(Searle et al., 1989; Larson et al., 1992; Bird,1994). Larson et al. state, “Enclosing the core ofthe microplate, the inner pseudofaults form apattern resembling the meteorological symbolfor a hurricane.” While Bird states, “The result isa feature that appears much like a geological“hurricane” embedded in the crust of the earth.”These references to the Juan Fernandezmicroplate belie the significance of the surgetectonic interpretation of these features astectonic vortices (Fig. 3a and 3b). Basic fluiddynamics can be applied based on surge theory.The difference in a surge interpretation is thatthese features represent high-pressure ordownwelling tectonic vortices as opposed to thelow-pressure upwelling of a hurricane mentionedabove. The reasoning is based on atmosphericdynamics, where high pressure iscounterclockwise in the southern hemisphere,and a well-defined high has a characteristicupper-level low with opposite spin, or clockwiserotation like the microplates exhibit. In theopposite sense it is well known that an upper-level high is necessary for development of thelow pressures in hurricane formation. If theupper-level high is sheared, hurricanes weaken.

EVIDENCE OF DOWNWELLING ON RIDGE

Gravity studies undertaken inconjunction with a wide-angle seismic refractionsurvey during the Mantle Electromagnetic andTomography (MELT) experiment find evidencefor denser, colder mantle near a small Over-lapping Spreading Center (OSC) on the EastPacific Rise (EPR) at approximately 15o 55’ S(Forsyth, et al., 1998). The direct quote frompage 1217 is, “Wide-angle seismic refractiondata recorded on secondary Ocean BottomSeismic (OBS) array show that crustal thicknessand structure near this small OSC is normal.Therefore, the gravity anomaly probably iscaused by denser and perhaps colder mantlenear the OSC. P and S wave arrivals fromteleseismic earthquakes are earlier along thesecondary array than at comparable distances

from the axis in the primary array, consistentwith lower temperatures or lower melt fractionsnear the OSC. Finally, Rayleigh wave phasevelocities show a pronounced, along-axisincrease beginning in the vicinity of the OSC,suggesting that melt concentrations are lowerbeneath the OSC and northward.” Thisevidence is contrary to upwelling mantle under aridge, which should be hotter and less dense,characteristics of a buoyant mantle. No attemptis made by investigators to explain this contrarypiece of evidence or incorporate it into anymodeling efforts. The data are basicallyreported, but ignored. This is a reminder of thehumorous adage field data collectors sometimesuse in reference to in-house modelers, in that “ifthe data doesn’t fit the model something must bewrong with the data.” Of course in this casenothing is wrong with the data:; it is irrefutable:the mantle is denser under the OSC. Howcould the mantle possibly downwell under theridge, especially in the vicinity of an OSC, whereall plate tectonic models predict mantleupwelling? The answer is found with a surgetectonic interpretation of converging mantle flowalong-axis under a pressurized ridge. The ridgepressure forces denser mantle downward andvolatile magmas upward in a counter-flowpattern very similar to atmospheric dynamics.

FLAWED THEORY 180 DEGRESS OUT OFPHASE

Mantle geostreams converge from thenorth and south along the EPR axis in additionto the across-basin convergence from the CPMto pressurize the EPR. This pressure inducesmantle downwelling within overlappingspreading centers of the microplates. Mantlestream-lines are defined by the ridge axis andmantle sinks into the Endeavor Deep of JuanFernandez microplate and the Pito Deep ofEaster microplate. Asthenosphere counterflowgenerated in the upper-level low flows oppositethe mantle and supplies magmas to thevolcanoes and ridge system (Fig 3a, 3b, and4b). This geodynamic interpretation is based onatmospheric dynamics or basic fluid dynamicsand explains the rotation of the microplates andunderlying geomorphology. If this model provescorrect, it points out the basic flaw in the platetectonic concept. The flaw is that the mantleflow dynamic of plate tectonics along ridges is180 degrees out of phase with reality. There isno linear upwelling of mantle at the ridge along a

2

crack in the plates, but instead there ishorizontal mantle flow along the ridge axis withdiscrete downwelling within vortices alongpressurized zones of the ridge. Counterflow (anexhibition of Newton’s third law of motionobserved in many fluids) to the mantle createsinterconnected magma chambers in theasthenosphere. Surges within theseinterconnected magma chambers, also calledgeostreams or surge channels, produceextrusions of volcanic rocks. This principle notonly applies to ridge systems, but also tocontinental rifts and island arcs. It may beapplied globally without ad hoc interjections.Pressure variations in magnitude and direction(up vs. down) within different systems explaindiffering geomorphology.

Fig. 6a. Bathymetry of the AAD Looking NorthIndicating 1km drop over 600km expanse andModeled as Downwelling Zone with ConvergingAxial Flow as early as the 1970’s(NAVOCEANO).

GLOBAL APPLICATION OF SURGE

The EPR is the most highly pressurizedridge on earth and exhibits a positivebathymetric profile with high spreading rates.Other ridges have similar flow dynamics, butexhibit different geomorphology due to differentpressures. The Mid-Atlantic Ridge isdepressurized and exhibits a negativebathymetric profile and slower spreading rates.The Southeast Indian Ridge exhibits a positivebathymetric profile with intermediate spreadingrates, except at the Australian-AntarcticDiscordance (AAD, Fig. 1), where adepressurized zone exhibits a negativebathymetric profile (Fig. 6a). The AAD can also

be modeled as a vortex (Fig. 6b) withconverging flow along the ridge axis. Reducedpressure causes a negative bathymetric profilealong the ridge, approximately 1 km deeper overa 600km expanse (Leybourne and Adams,2000).

Variations of a converging axial flowmodel for the AAD were proposed as early 1973(Vogt and Johnson, 1973; Vogt, 1976; Alvarez,1982; 1990; Vogt et. al., 1983; Forsyth et al.,1987; Klein, 1988; Kuo, 1993), but flows aroundthe plates are seen to be a refinement of theplate tectonic model even though downwelling atthe ridge axis is 180 degrees out of phase withthe proposed plate concept. Interpretations ofthe AAD are really based on the tenets of surgetheory, but unwittingly are blatant examples ofthe ad hoc refinements used to fit geophysicalobservations into plate theory instead of using atheory that fits the observations.

Fig. 6b. Arrows Denote Deep ConvectionConnection Under Australia is 180 Degrees outof Phase with the Plate Tectonic Concept(MSRC).

Within the framework of surgeinterpretation, ridges appear to be dominated bydownwelling mantle vortices along overlappingspreading centers and possibly at transformoffsets. Island arcs, on the other hand, appearto be dominated by upwelling mantle vorticesfrom under the continents, exemplified byformation of island arcs predominantly eastwardof landmasses and crustal isostaticcompensation to upwelling by trench formationin the arcs. Geostreams generally moveeastward like jetstream patterns because ofearth rotation, although ocean basins seem tobe dominated by north/south meridian flow at

2

the ridges. Continental geostreams arerepresented by mountain ranges and continentalrift areas and are interconnected directly toocean basins along tectonic trends in a GlobalEarth Teleconnected Oscillation System(GETOS). This includes the SouthernOscillation (SO), the North Pacific Oscillation(NPO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO),all of which are ocean/atmosphericteleconnection patterns underlain by andcoupled to major tectonic vortices bymicrogravity.

Fig. 7. Conceptually Simplified Deep MantlePlanetary Scale Convection Cells GloballyTeleconnected to the Outer Core. ArrowsDenote Banda and East Pacific Rise DeepMantle Walker Circulation (MSRC).

Surge theory allows atmospheric 3-Dcirculation patterns, such as Walker Circulation,to be considered as a model for tectonicdynamics in the Pacific Basin instead of onlysimple Hadley Cell 2-D convection, consideredas a driving force in plate tectonics. Once thissimple shift in perspective is made it is fairlyeasy to understand how large downwellingtectonic pressure cells along offsets on the EPRare dynamically linked to mantle upwelling in theBanda Sea tectonic vortex (Fig. 7). Uppermantle stream flow processes across the PacificBasin, along the CPM, and around the Pacific“Rim of Fire” diverge (Fig. 4b) under the BandaSea. Divergence also occurs north of New

Zealand within other tectonic vortices fartheralong the CPM vortex street (Smoot andLeybourne, 1997). These geostreams allconverge on the EPR, and have a deepplanetary-scale vortex connection near the outercore (Fig. 7). These convection componentscomplete a simple Walker Circulation model forthe tectonics of the Pacific Basin. A Banda Seasurge model is portrayed by Leybourne andAdams (1999).

Finally a note of interest is the westwarddrift in sequential, 5-year intervals in the WorldMagnetic Models (WMM). This agrees with thesurge concept of westward drift in the deepmantle as a counterflow to upper mantleeastward flowing geostreams, exactly analogousto eastward jetstreams and westward tradewinds. Although inconclusive and untenable,this interesting geophysical observation is yetanother small piece of evidence that seems tofall into place with the newer surge model.

GRAVITATIONALTELECONNECTION

TECTONIC MODULATION OF CLIMATE

The surge hypothesis impliesgravitational teleconnection of tectonics toclimate (Leybourne and Smoot, 2000). It takesvery little change in microgravity (0.3-0.4ugals/mbar or approximately 1ugal for every3mbars) to produce atmospheric pressure flux ofone mbar. This relationship has beendemonstrated and quantified (Warburton andGoodkind, 1977) using superconducting gravitymeters. Microgravity changes of 6ugals werenoted for typical weather patterns with maximumshifts up to 45ugals. Inversely, this means smallregional atmospheric fluxes of the SO, which areapproximately 4-6mbars, may be explained withonly a 2ugal change within a regional-scaletectonic vortex. Are tectonic dynamics capableof producing microgravity shifts of thismagnitude? Francis et al. (1997) document a17ugal shift in the gravity field over anapproximate 6-month period withsuperconducting gravity meters moving throughMembach, Belgium. They attribute this shiftcompletely to geophysical origin. This 17ugalshift, which moved through Europe in early1996, may also be related to the 1997/98 ElNino if it migrated toward the Pacific Basin as aslow-moving microgravity wave caused by geoid

2

undulations. It also follows that increases inhurricanes in the Atlantic after an El Nino maybe explained by eastward migration ofmicrogravity waves. Modulation of jetstreampatterns by across-basin sea-level pressureoscillations is the common denominator betweenlarge-scale global climate changes and the largevariation in the number of hurricanes formedwithin the Atlantic from year to year.

Earth scientists generally accept thatglobal eustatic sea-level changes of variousmagnitudes and duration have various origins.Tectonics as a driving force for climate changehas previously been considered forSupercontinental Gondwanaland-type platecollisions and tectonic rifting cycles on the orderof 108 years (Fairbridge, 1982). Changes inseafloor spreading rates and mid-ocean ridgevolumetric expansion/contraction arehypothesized to have tectonic cycles on theorder of 107 years (Koming, 1984, Pitman,1978). Sedimentary depositional cyclicity hasbeen recorded throughout the Phanerozoic inseismic sequences at periods of 105 and 106

years and are known as Milankovitch seriescorrelations.

MILANKOVITCH SERIES CORRELATIONS

Planetary orbital motions altering theradius between earth and sun control theamount of incoming solar radiation of 20,000-,40,000-, and 100,000-, year duration(Milankovitch series correlation). The apparentcause of these 105 and 106 depositional cyclesaffecting climate/sea-level fluctuations is solarinsolation changes due to the orbitalparameters, as opposed to tectonic fluctuation,which is considered a separate mechanism.What if they are not completely separatemechanisms?

Milankovitch’s original concept(Milankovitch, 1941) is that the orbital position ofthe planet controls the amount of incoming solarenergy, thus controlling long-term climatetrends. Three principal orbital parameters affectlow-frequency oscillations of the Earth's size andshape. Eccentricity (100,000-year cycles) is thedeviation of the orbit from a perfect circle;obliquity (40,000-year cycles) is the angle of tiltof the Earth's axis with respect to the plane of itsorbit; and precession (26,000-year cycles) is thedirection in which the rotation axis points.Interactions between principal orbital parameterscontrol much long-term climate change. The

dominance of eccentricity has been linked toglacial cycles. The similarity between theduration of major glacial cycles, such as those ofthe past 800,000 years, and the duration ofeccentricity cycles imply a causal relationship(Berger, 1980; Berger et al., 1984). Such orbitalperiodicities have been found in deep-sea cores(Hays et al., 1976; Berger et al., 1984).

Even though first-order mechanisms ofclimate change may be separate volumetricexpansion/contraction of ridges versus solarisolation flux, what if these mechanisms arelinked by microgravity modulation ofatmospheric pressure through tectonic vorticies?Tectonic and solar changes in addition toplanetary alignments and intergalactic orpossibly interstellar events may all altermicrogravity at various magnitudes and timescales. Arguments that solar insolationvariations caused by relatively short-termsunspot activity have higher magnitudes thanthose induced by orbital parameters may pointto a more complex mechanism at work thansolar insolation alone, as stated in Milankovitchseries correlations (Leybourne, 1998b).Variations in height of lake levels in the MiddleEast, like the Caspian, have been linked tosunspot activity, (Rodionov, 1994) but the phaseis not consistent. This mysterious climate linkmay be explained by variations in the magnitudeof gravitational teleconnection which alter stormtracks dependent on tectonic vortexteleconnection strength. When the effect oftectonic gravitational teleconnection onatmospheric flow dynamics is considered, amuch more powerful concept for the drasticchanges observed in climatic proxies emerges.This concept links all eustatic sea level andclimate change to tectonic dynamics, includingmodern-day high-frequency variations of El Ninocycles. Shifting wind patterns, especially the jetstreams meridional to zonal perturbations, maybe controlled by GETOS. If this effectdominates the modern climatic swings of ElNino, logic implies that larger changes recordedin climate proxies are a result of more dramaticchanges in these modern processes. Theseprocesses may be quantified and modeled usingaccurate time-series microgravity data collectedwithin the tectonic vortices of GETOS.

The tectonic gravitational teleconnectionmodulation hypothesis enhances Milankovitchseries correlation with climatic shifts, especiallyin light of the argument that orbital changes ofradius between the earth and sun alonecorrelated to temperature change are not

2

enough to explain the degree of climatic changeobserved in the geologic record. Local changesin “g” induced from undulations in the sun, theearth, or planetary alignments could invoke aweakening or strengthening of microgravitationalteleconnection between tectonic vortices, thusshifting jetstream patterns globally.

DISCUSSION

THEORY IS SUSPECT IN SLOW PROGRESSOF EARTH-CLIMATE SCIENCES

Many ad hoc flow models for the uppermantle have been created to make sense ofobserved geomorphology, bathymetry, gravity,geoid field, and melt compositions. Thesemodels include plume upwelling and swellformation at hotspots, small-scale convectionbeneath plates, mantle flow and melt migrationbeneath moving spreading centers, convectiveoverturn above subducting plates, astheno-sphere flow associated with propagating rifts,downwelling beneath the AAD, return flow fromtrenches to ridges, and flow around subductingslabs during trench rollback. These models areconsidered refinements of plate theory in thethree decades since the plate tectonic revolutionand are discussed by principal investigators ofmantle dynamics on the web-page of the OceanMantle Dynamics (OMD) Initiative.

Hotspot eruptions of lava are distinctfrom those sampled at mid-ocean ridges orisland arcs and are considered surfacemanifestations of buoyant plumes rising from thelower mantle by most investigators. A bigquestion noted is “do distinct channels connectridges to off-axis hotspots or is reactive porousflow more likely?” Another problem noted is“how are melts focused into narrow linear zonesat ridges?” In order to address these questions,the larger issue of the validity of the basicworking model of plate tectonics, which isvirtually accepted without question by themajority of earth scientists, must be addressed.To do this, let’s analyze what modern-dayinvestigators have to say about mantle dynamicsin light of a new theory.

POINT BY POINT REVIEW OF COMMENTS

In a recent review of one of my ownpaper submissions, reviewers objected to surge

tectonics with the comment that “the inertialforces and Coriolis force must surely benegligible in the mantle.” Dynamic viscosity isassumed to be on the order of 1018 to 1023 Poise(dyne-sec/cm2). The term negligible has beenused often in science to ignore what areconsidered small effects. When researchersconsider climatic time intervals, the influence ofmicrogravity on the atmosphere, and the sheervolume of material in a regional tectonic vortex,these forces may become apparent.

Difficulties in geodynamic modeling withplate tectonics are self-evident with commentsby OMD principle investigators. Statementssuch as, “Previously, the geometry of plates hadto be prescribed, i.e., inserted by hand, becausethe temperature-dependent, viscous creeprepresentation of mantle rheology employed inthe models did not permit the naturaldevelopment of lithospheric plates. Instead, arigid, globally continuous lid developed at thecold surface of the earth.” What viscosity wasused in these models? And what developedsounds possibly like the earth’s original Archeanshield with remnant magnetism found in modernday ocean basins now offered as the proof ofplate tectonics (discussed by Meyerhoff andMeyerhoff, 1972b). Another objection raised byMeyerhoff in 1972 was that the term plate in“plate tectonics” is a misnomer. Plate meanssmooth flat thin material, whereas the earth is asphere. Thus the rub, the theory might moreaptly be called “bowl tectonics.” Anothercomment implied the lack of a global application:“Small-scale convection in the asthenosphere offlow induced locally at plate boundaries isdifficult to represent in global models, but havebeen successfully developed in regionalmodels.” Surge theory ideas are already beingincorporated into newer modeling efforts assuggested by other comments such as, “Newmodels are being constructed of two-phase flowthat describe separate paths of melt and mantlematrix and the geochemical consequences ofthe separate paths of these two very different‘fluids.’” This seems to refer to geostreams andthe counterflow generated in the asthenosphereas prescribed by surge theory. Then again,“Many models have been developed for plume-ridge interaction and particularly for flow awayfrom Iceland in the asthenosphere along theReykjanes Ridge” sounds like surge theory.Small excerpts say, “but there is a more efficientalong axis distribution of melt in crustal magmachambers” and “melt transport into the lowercrust may be highly 3-D and variable along

2

axis.” Along-axis flow is considered a highpossibility. 3-D flow seems to be a surprise toplate theorists who tend to think in 2-D profiletype convection patterns as evidence bystatements like, “MELT investigators were ableto demonstrate that mantle processes beneaththe southern East Pacific Rise are distinctly 3-D.” Serious concern is demonstrated by, “Thereis, however, no direct evidence for the existenceof plume-like mantle flow beneath slowspreading ridges and serious questions havebegun to emerge about this model.” Really?This statement looks like the possible “deathknell” for plate theory and is an isolated exampleof modern investigators finally starting toquestion the foundation of the model. Anotherstatement, “Theoretical models will then beneeded to use the seismological constraints toquantitatively examine the possible drivingmechanism” implies driving mechanism modelsare needed. While the statement, “Theproblems of along-axis mantle flow, lateralvariations in melting, and mantle mixing areintimately related” indicates along-axis flow is aproblem for the current model. Commentsabound showing the tentative nature ofunderstanding encompassed by the plate model.For example, “Island arc magmas are producedthrough the interaction of volatiles from the slabwith hot material in the mantle wedge, but theexact process and its geometry are uncertain”or “The pattern of mantle flow beneath fastspreading mid-ocean ridges and the magmaplumbing system that transports melt from theupper mantle to crust is still very poorlyunderstood.”

SERIOUS QUESTIONS AND LAST STRAWSOF PLATE TECTONICS

Particularly pertinent to the link betweentectonics and climate are comments by OMDinvestigators referring to the CPM discussedearlier: “There are intraplate, volcanic ridges onthe Pacific Plate whose origin is not wellunderstood.” It goes on to say, “Their originseems linked to equally enigmatic gravitylineations that are aligned in the direction ofabsolute plate motion,” which refers to the CPMGEOSAT trends in Fig. 5. It continues with,“Although they have not been thoroughlyinvestigated, it has been demonstrated thatthese ridges are not hotspot traces; they do notform in the near-ridge, spreading environmentand they are not volcanic arcs in a subduction

setting. Suggestions for their origin includesmall-scale convective rolls in theasthenosphere, lithospheric boundinage orstretching, and small plumes resembling mini-hotspots that originate in the upper mantle.” TheCPM does not fit into any previous ad hocexplanations, so some more explanations areconstrued. The investigators further state,“Whatever their origin, these ridges and gravitylineations provide one of the few clues to mantleprocesses in the vast intraplate region betweenplate creation at the spreading centers andsubduction of the plates at trenches.” This clue

ad rierbial strawt continu

s wits i25 T7m2u158.75 Tw (rp2ee,5gutdes07 T platequalv84. )Tj ET856eiwon betwtOo6t0abaw (heyET BT 83pri5itsE125 5uBT � p9s dp622r5 0 irencolat8Eper5 5ui thEtba ,c.75 Tw2li3 Tw (end ew cidto m (adT50.12R2 p9s d187.c2P8 ei3 Twwtwee-ri2r ET BT 324.1257ebicd1.12- udgedge TD 0.881 TM4.125 Tw (setting.85CPM)Tjiwon betw2Ang mini-)T4bicdiALateqE TE2lere, 2.90.12L n5o 7Bridges o8g co8L ad2T 324.125 561.25 o an6-)T4bu,ng BT 72.125 101.25 T T325 TD ot)rug6181 Tw69 I1 TMo8L ssed856eoseu7c thei0.824 Tw 8Eper5 5ui to ;uDtwes witsetqRr state1 goswits i25 T7m2u158. 5 6(pl0ngosot E3hehei025 o 24.thoroughly)Tj ET BTteqE TE2le04Stecs witsetq9 D 01 Tw TD 0.57 Tw (ParticulC2 p9s dp622r5 0 irbplates at trenchegl g7)late motion,” whiciIi9lp co8

2

(6) Magnetic anomalies are generally near mid-ocean ridges, but ridges are not essential forthe presence of magnetic anomalies.

(7) Magnetic time scales and reversal epochsare based on speculative assumptions andquestionable extrapolations from sparsedata.

(8) It is suspected that much of the drill holedata did not actually reach basement, butencountered basaltic underplating layers.

Thus, it is contended that sweeping conclusionsbased on speculations built upon misconceived

2

waves in the oceans, or oceanic fronts. Thesefronts are pressure/temperature waves movingthrough their corresponding medium and in theearth are called surges, microgravity waves, ortectonic fronts (Leybourne, 1997).

The influence of gravitationalteleconnection on atmospheric pressure may befactored into current global General CirculationModels by coupling geodynamic tectonic flow toocean/atmosphere models based on principlesof surge tectonics. Calculating a regional surgeindex for modeling longer-range climate patternssuch as the ENSO may be possible. ENSO iscontrolled by the largest tectonic vortexstructures on earth, the Banda vortex in theIndonesian Island Arc teleconnected across thePacific Basin via the CPM to strong downwellingvortices along offsets on the EPR near EasterIsland and Juan Fernandez microplates.Application of this concept in other areas, suchas the North Pacific and the North Atlantic,provides the answers to questions such as: (1)What creates the large-scale changes inpressure (SLP) that cause a vacillation ofmeteorological patterns between zonal andmeridional flow in the northern hemisphere?and (2) Why is zonal flow predominant in thesouthern hemisphere? East-west vs. north-south orientation of dominant vortices answersthese questions. If geophysicists fail to explainthe El Nino link to seismicity, there is littlechance that the debate on “the humancontribution to climate change” will ever beclearly resolved. Dedicating research fundsallocated to global warming issues can bejustified based on Walker’s observations alone,and research can be implemented by the RidgeInter-Disciplinary Global Experiments (RIDGE)and Ocean Mantle Dynamics (OMD) scienceplans. These are National Science Foundationinitiatives that foster interdisciplinary scientificstudy of mid-ocean ridge processes. Thepossibility that tectonic phenomena maymodulate weather patterns when gravitationalpotential energy is released or stored inocean/atmosphere coupled dynamics aspressure and temperature changes should beinvestigated.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

An excellent friend, Michael B. Adams atLogicon, created all NAVOCEANO images from5-minute gridded bathymetry data and createdall MSRC images from personal discussions of

surge tectonic conceptualizations. In addition hecreated animations portraying these conceptspresented at Marine Technology SocietyOCEANS ’99 and OCEANS 2000 conferences.Most images are clips taken from theseanimations. Also I’d like to thank Chris Smoot,who I consider a mentor and close personalfriend. His line drawing of the major oceanbasins from high-pass filtered GEOSAT data,extensive bathymetric compilation experience,and knowledge of seafloor geomorphology haveenabled our global application of the surgeconcept which he expresses as an author withinthe 1996 Surge Tectonics: A New Hypothesis ofGlobal Geodynamics book. We have co-authored several papers and continuecollaboration even after his retirement. Inaddition, Chris introduced me too severalauthors of this book at the New Concepts inGlobal Tectonics conference in Tuskuba, Japan.This has lead to my continued correspondenceand support from Ismil Baht in India, formerlywith the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology,and Dong Choi and Mac Dickens in Australia,who edit the New Concepts in Global TectonicsNewsletter. This newsletter creates a forum toexpress controversial new ideas in tectonics,which might not have a place for expressionelsewhere. These new friends have encouragedmy contributions and have been instrumental insupporting new ideas in tectonic modulation ofclimate. They are the backers of surge theoryand other enlightening ideas, which bring thepromise of new solutions to the table in thetectonic arena. Surge theory enters the fray inthe debate on global warming and other tectonicsolutions.

B. A. Leybourne is an employee of the NavalOceanographic Office. However, the opinionsand assertions contained herein are those of theauthor, and are not to be considered as officialstatements of the U.S. Department of the Navy.

REFERENCES

Alvarez, W., Geologic evidence for the plate-driving mechanism: The continental undertowhypothesis and the Australian-AntarcticDiscordance, Tectonics, 9 (5), 1212-1220, 1990.

Alvarez, W., Geological evidence for thegeographical pattern of mantle return flow and

2

the driving mechanism of plate tectonics, J.Geophys. Res. 87, 6697-6710, 1982.

Berger. A., The Milankovitch astronomical theoryof paleoclimates: a modern review; Vistas In: A.Beer, K. Pounds and P. Beer. (eds), Astronomy,24, 103-122, 1980.

Berger. A., and others (eds), Milankovitch andclimate understanding the response toastronomical forcing. In: Part 1 and 2:Proceedings of the NATO Advanced ResearchWorkshop on Milankovitch and Climate.Mathematical and Physical Sciences, NATO,ASI Series, Series C, 126, 30 Nov.- 4 Dec.,1982. D. Reidel Publishing Company. 1984.

Bird, R.T., GLORIA Tells all about JuanFernandez, Geology, 7-11, 1994.

Choi, D.R., Geology of the oceans aroundAustralia, Part I ocean lineaments: Continuationfrom the continent, New Concepts in GlobalTectonics Newsletter 3, 8-9, June, 1997.

Fairbridge, R.W., The fracturing ofGondwansland. In: The Ocean Floor. eds. R.A.Scrutton and M. Talwani. John Wiley and Sons,pp. 229-235, 1982.

Forsyth, D.W., R.L. Ehrenbard, and S. Chapin,Anomolous upper-mantle beneath theAustralian-Antarctic Discordance, Earth Planet.Sci. Lett. 84, 471-478, 1987.

Forsyth, D.W., D.S. Scheirer, S.C. Webb, L.M.Dorman, J.A. Orcutt, A.J. Harding, D.K.

2

Leybourne, B.A., and M.B. Adams, TheAustralian-Antarctic Discordance: Pressurizedvs. Non-Pressurized Ridge System. MarineTechnology Society Oceans 2000 ConferenceProceedings, 3, Providence, Rhode Island, Oct.2000.

Leybourne, B.A., and N.C. Smoot, Ocean basinstructural trends based on GEOSAT data.Proceedings of Gulf Coast Section of MarineTechnology Society Conference. 135-140,Stennis Space Center, MS, April 23-24, 1997.

Leybourne, B.A. and N.C. Smoot, Surgehypothesis implies gravitational teleconnectionof tectonics to climate: El Nino and the CentralPacific Geostream/Jetstream, HimalayanGeology 23 (1), 1-15, 2000.

Meyerhoff, A.A., I., Taner, A.E.L. Morris, W.B.Agocs, M. Kamen-Kaye, M.I. Bhat, N.C. Smoot,and D.R. Choi, Surge Tectonics: A NewHypothesis of Global Geodynamics. MeyerhoffHull, D. (ed) Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp317, 1996.

Meyerhoff, A.A., I. Taner, A.E.L. Morris, B.D.Martin, W.B. Agocs, and H.A. Meyerhoff, Surgetectonics: a new hypothesis of Earth dynamics,In: New Concepts in Global Tectonics. eds. S.Chatterjee and N. Hotton III. pp. 309-409.Lubbock. Texas Tech University Press. 1992.

Meyerhoff, A.A., and H.A. Meyerhoff, “The NewGlobal Tectonics”: Major Inconsistencies, Amer.Assoc. Petrol. Geo. Bull. 56 (2), 269-336, 1972a.

Meyerhoff, A.A., and H.A. Meyerhoff, “The NewGlobal Tectonics”: Age of Linear MagneticAnomalies of Ocean Basins, Amer. Assoc.Petrol. Geo. Bull. 56 (2), 337-359, 1972b.

Milankovitch, M., Kanon der Erdbestrahlung undseine Anwendung auf des Eiszeitproblem. RoyalSerbian Academy, Belgrade, 1941.

Pitman, W.C., III, Relationship between eustacyand stratigraphic sequences of passive margins,Geol. Soc. Amer. Bull. 89, 1387-1403, 1978.

Rodionov, Sergei N., Global and RegionalClimate Interaction: The Caspian SeaExperience, Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp241, 1994.

Sandwell, D.T., E.I. Winterrer, J. Mammerickx,R.A. Duncan, M.A. Lynch, D. Levitt, and C.L.Johnson, Eviedence for diffuse extension of thePacific plate from Pukapuka ridges and cross-grain lineations, J. Geophys. Res.,100, 15087-15099, 1995.

Searle, R.C., R.I. Rusby, J. Engelin, R.N. Hey, J.Zukin, P.M. Hunter, T.P. LeBas, H. Hoffman andR. Livermore, Comprehensive sonar imaging ofthe Easter microplate, Nature 341, 701-705,1989.

Smoot, N.C., Orthogonal intersections ofmegatrends in the Western Pacific ocean basin:a case study of the Mid-Pacific mountains,Goemorphology, 30, 323-356, 1999.

Smoot, N.C., and B.A. Leybourne, The CentralPacific Mega-trend, Geomorphology, in press,2001.

Smoot, N.C. and B.A. Leybourne, The SouthAdriatic basin: a vortex structure on the world-encircling vortex street, Mar. Tech. Soc. Jour. 31(2), 21-35, 1997.

Vogt, P.R., and G.L. Johnson, A longitudinalseismic reflection profile of the Reykjanes ridge,Part II, Implications for the mantle hotspothypothesis, Earth and Planet. Sci. Lett., 18, 49-58, 1973.

Vogt, P.R., Plumes, sub-axial pipe flow, andtopography along the mid-ocean ridge, Earthand Planet. Sci. Lett., 29, 309-325, 1976.

Vogt, P.R., N.Z. Cherkis, and G.A. Morgan,Project Investigator, Evolution of the Australian-Antarctic Discordance deduced from a detailedaeromagnetic study, In: Antarctic Earth Science,eds. R.L. Oliver, P.R. James, and J.B. Jago,Australian Academy of Science, Canberra, pp.608-613, 1983.

Walker, G., Correlation and seasonal variation ofweather, Memoirs of Indian Meteorol. Dept., 24,275-332. 1924.

Walker, G., and Bliss, E.W., World Weather, V,Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 4, 53-84, 1932.

Walker, D.A., Seismicity of the East Pacific:correlations with the Southern Oscillation Index?EOS Trans. AGU. 69, 857 1988.

2

Walker, D.A., Seismicity of the Interiors of thePlates in the Pacific Basin, EOS Trans. 70 (50),1543-1544, 1989.

Walker, D.A., More evidence indicates linkbetween El Ninos and seismicity. EOS Trans.AGU. 76 (33), 1995.

Walker, D.A., Seismic Predictors of El NinoRevisted. EOS Trans. AGU, 80 (25), 1999.

Walker, D.A., and S.R. Hammond, Spatial andtemporal distributions of T-phase sourcelocations on the Juan de Fuca and GordaRidges. EOS Trans. AGU. 71, 1601. 1990.

Warburton, R.J., and J.M. Goodkind, Theinfluence of barometric-pressure variations ongravity. Geophys. J.R. Astr. Soc. 48, 281-292,1977.