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SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATIONdoi: 10.1038/nchem
nature chemistry | www.nature.com/naturechemistry 1
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATIONdoi: 10.1038/ngeo697
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1
Supplementary Information
Supplementary Movie 1. Detected aftershocks within the first hour after the 2004
Mw6.0 Parkfield earthquake. (a) The cross-section view of the detected events along
the San Andreas Fault (SAF) color-coded by their occurrence times after the mainshock.
The star denotes the epicenter of the mainshock. The background shading denotes the
mainshock slip distribution from Murry and Langbein1. (b) 2-8 Hz band-pass-filtered
vertical seismogram recorded at station MMNB. The vertical red dashed lines and blue
lines mark the origin time of newly detected event and those listed in the NCSN catalog,
respectively. (c) Envelope function of the 2-8 Hz band-pass-filtered vertical seismogram
recorded at station MMNB in the first hour after the mainshock. The vertical red line
denotes the moving origin time, and the short blue line marks the origin time of event
listed in the NCSN catalog.
Supplementary Movie 2. All detected events after the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield
earthquake plotted as logarithmic time since the mainshock. (a) The cross-section
view of the detected events along the SAF color-coded by the logarithmic time after the
mainshock. The background shading denotes the slip distribution of the mainshock and
the first 60-day afterslip from Murry and Langbein1. (b) Envelope function of the 2-8 Hz
band-pass-filtered vertical seismogram recorded at station EADB after the mainshock.
Other symbols are the same as in Supplementary Movie 1.
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Supplementary Note 1: Comparisons Between the Detected and Catalog Events
Since some detected events are also listed in the Thurber et al.2 catalog, we compute
the inter-hypocentral distance between the template events and these detected events
listed in the catalog (Figure S1a). We find that 95% of the events are within the distance
of 2.7 km for CC values larger than 0.2, which roughly places an upper-limit of the
location uncertainty of the detected events relative to the templates. We also compare the
magnitude difference and the median amplitude ratios between the templates and those
detected events that are also listed in the Thurber et al.2 relocated catalog. The results are
roughly consistent with the relationship of tenfold increase in amplitude for one unit
increase in magnitude (Figure S1b). The amplitude-magnitude distribution shown in
Figure S1b also contains large scatter, most likely due to the frequency-band limitation of
the amplitude ratios, or unknown changes in instrument gains. We do not attempt to
apply any magnitude correction in this study.
As mentioned in the main text, a total of 543 events were listed in the Thurber et al.2
catalog from 09/28/2004 to 09/30/2004, and 933 events were listed in the NCSN catalog
in the same period. The difference between the Thurber et al.2 and the NCSN catalogs
mainly stems from the fact that the Thurber et al.2 catalog only contains events with high-
quality waveforms that correlate with other events, and hence is not as complete as the
NCSN catalog.
To further evaluate the quality of the detected events, we first identify those events
that are listed in the NCSN but not in the Thurber et al.2 catalog. Next, we match them
with our newly detected catalog by requiring their origin time difference to be less than 2
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s, and the hypocentral separation distance to be less than 10 km. Figure S2 shows the
comparisons of the hypocentral depths and magnitudes of the 415 events that satisfy the
above matching criteria. The distributions generally follow the 1-1 relationship but also
contain some scatter. At least some of the scatter in the hypocentral depths reflects the
inherent difference between the standard NCSN and the Thurber et al.2 relocated
catalogs. In addition, we simply assign the location of the detected event as that of the
best template event in this study. In reality, they could be separated by certain distances,
which would result in scatter in the depths and magnitudes.
Figure S1. Comparisons of earthquake parameters between the template and
detected events. (a) Mean cross-correlation (CC) values versus hypocentral separations
between the template and detected events. The background shade shows the logarithmic
number of event pairs over a grid cell with the size 0.1 km x 0.01 CC value. The solid
triangles mark the corresponding CC values above which 95% of the data points are
within certain distances. (b) Difference in magnitude versus the median amplitude ratios
between the templates and those detected events that are also listed in the Thurber et al.2
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relocated catalog. The red dashed line marks the relationship between tenfold increase in
amplitude and one unit increase in magnitude.
Figure S2. Comparisons of earthquake parameters between the 415 events.
Comparisons of hypocentral depths (a) and magnitudes (b) for 415 events that are listed
in the NCSN catalog and detected by the matched filter technique. The dashed line marks
the 1-1 relationship.
Supplementary Note 2: Statistical Properties of Detected Aftershocks
Next, we compare the statistical properties (i.e., frequency-magnitude relationship and
aftershock decay patterns) for aftershocks listed in the NCSN catalog and those detected
by the matched filter technique. To ensure that we compare events from the same region,
we select earthquakes along the strike of the SAF (139.2o) with a fault-normal distance
less than 2 km, and within −50 km (NW) to 20 km (SE) relative to the epicenter of the
2004 M6 earthquake (−120.3667o, 35.8155
o). The choice of the along-strike distance
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takes into account potential aftershock migrations, which is described in details in the
main text and the following sections.
Figure S3a shows a comparison of the magnitudes versus logarithmic time since the
Parkfield mainshock for aftershocks listed in the NCSN catalog and those detected by the
matched filter technique. It is clear that our method have detected significant amount of
“missing” aftershocks, especially in the first few hundred seconds immediately after the
mainshock. In addition, many small-magnitude events in the range of –2 to 0 were
identified at latter times. We also compute the evolving magnitude of completeness Mc
with time using the goodness-of-fit test (GFT)3. Specifically, we select 100 aftershocks
each time, move forward by 20 events, and determine the Mc value as the magnitude at
which 90% of the data can be modeled by a power-law fit. We find that the Mc value
decrease systematically with time since the mainshock, indicating an increase of the
detection ability with time for our matched filter technique, similar those observed for
regular catalogs (e.g., ref. 4).
Figure S3b compares the frequency-magnitude relationships for events in both
catalogs. The cumulative magnitude-frequency distribution curves for both catalogs are
similar at larger magnitudes, and deviate from each other at smaller magnitudes. The Mc
values estimated from the GFT method are 1.1 and 0.9 for the NCSN and our detected
catalog, respectively. Figure S3c compares the aftershock decay rates for both catalogs.
To reduce the bias due to these missing aftershocks at smaller magnitudes, we only select
aftershocks with magnitude larger than 1.5, which is well above the Mc value for both
catalogs. We compute the seismicity rate by using moving overlapping windows (e.g.,
ref. 5). The initial window contains 2 data points. We then slide the window by 1 data
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point and increase its window length by 1 data point. The maximum allowable length is
21 data points. The aftershock rates for both catalogs decay logarithmically with time
since the mainshock, with an Omori’s law decay slope p close to 0.8. For the detected
events, the aftershock rate in the first few hundred seconds shows clearly deviation from
the power-law decay with the slope of 0.8. This observation is similar to the seismicity
rate directly measured from high-pass-filtered seismograms in the same region6.
However, because the Mc value changes dramatically with time after the mainshock (e.g.,
refs 4, 7), it is quite possible that Mc value is larger than 1.5 immediately after the
mainshock. In addition, the HRSN short-period instruments were clipped during and in
the first 30 s after the Parkfield mainshock. Hence, some early aftershocks that occurred
during this period could be missing in our detected catalog. Finally, it is interesting to
note that the seismicity rate curve with m ≥ 1.5 for the detected events are still above that
of the NCSN catalog at 2-3 days after the mainshock, indicating that missing events from
a regular catalog could extend to a few days, larger than the first few hours as suggested
from previous studies (e.g., refs 4, 6-9).
To investigate this further, we count the numbers of events for both catalogs in three
magnitude bins, 0 ≤ m <1, 1 ≤ m < 2, and m ≥ 2, and compute the ratio between them in
each 0.2 logarithmic time bin. We then use the percentage of (1 – ratio) as a proxy for a
measure of missing aftershocks in the NCSN catalog (Figure S4). We find that more than
80% of intermediate-size events (1 ≤ m < 2), and 60% of the large events (m ≥ 2) is
missing in the NCSN catalog within the first hour after the mainshock. The detection
ability of the NCSN improves with time since the mainshock. By the second day, only
55% of the events in the magnitude range of 1 ≤ m < 2 are missing.
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In comparison, the percentage of missing aftershocks for large events (i.e., m ≥ 2) is
nearly constant (50-70%) after the first few hundred seconds (Figure S4). A detailed
examination of waveforms of these newly detected aftershocks with m ≥ 2 at later times
reveals that some do correspond to newly detected events (e.g., Figure S5d). However, in
other cases, the magnitudes of the newly detected events were assigned erroneously. For
example, in Figure S5a, the template event 20041102102612 (CUSP ID 32416567) as
listed in the NCSN catalog has a local magnitude ML = 3.28. It was followed within 10 s
by another event (CUSP ID 30506546) with larger amplitude, but the coda duration
magnitude for this event listed in the NCSN catalog is only Md = 1.05. Because the
waveforms of the first event match best to those of the detected event 20040930152020,
the assigned magnitude is 2.48, which is based on the median amplitude ratio of 0.16. In
reality, the true magnitude of this newly detected event could be much smaller.
We note that Md is assigned to the majority of small events in the Thurber et al.2 and
the NCSN catalogs, while ML is assigned to some intermediate-size events (3 ≤ ML ≤ 5),
and the moment magnitude Mw is assigned to a few large events (Mw ≥ 4). Bakun10
found
that the USGS Md is consistent ML with in the magnitude range of 1.5 to 3.25, and Md is
slightly larger than ML for ML ≤ 1.5 and smaller than for ML ≥ 3.25. Because we do not
expect to see a large magnitude discrepancy (e.g., larger than 2) among different
magnitude scales, it is likely that small portions of magnitudes in the NCSN catalog are
not determined properly. Because some of the misdetermined magnitudes could be
transferred into the magnitudes estimated in our study, we suggest that the 60% missing
rate at later times for m ≥ 2 is probably an overestimate value, which likely reflects both
true missing events, and those with magnitude assigned erroneously.
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Figure S3. Statistical properties of the detected aftershocks. (a) A comparison of
event magnitude versus time since the Parkfield mainshock for aftershocks detected by
the matched filter technique (red triangle) and those listed in the NCSN catalog (blue
circle) The green square shows the evolving Mc value computed using the goodness-of-
fit test3. (b) Cumulative (lines) and non-cumulative (triangles and circles) number of
aftershocks versus magnitude for events detected by the matched filter technique (red)
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and those listed in the NCSN catalog (blue). The larger solid symbols mark the Mc values
for two different catalogs. (c) A comparison of the aftershock rate for the detected events
(red) and listed in the NCSN catalog (blue) with magnitude larger than 1.5. The green
dashed line corresponds to the seismicity rate before the mainshock (i.e., background
rate). The two horizontal lines correspond to the average background rate and the
maximum allowable detection rate of 0.5/s (1 event for every 2 s). The solid, dashed and
gray dashed lines show the reference rate with p = 1, 0.8, and 0.5, respectively.
Figure S4. Number of aftershocks since the mainshock. Number of events listed in the
detected catalog (a) and the NCSN catalog (b), and the ratio between them (c) plotted
with logarithmic time since the main shock in three magnitude bins.
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Figure S5. Example waveforms recorded at the vertical component of station
MMNB. The waveforms for the template and detected events are shown in red and black,
respectively. The amplitudes of waveforms in each panel are plotted using the same scale
in counts. In panel (a), the template event 20041102102612 with ML = 3.28 was followed
by another event (CUSP ID 30506546) with larger amplitude but smaller magnitude Md =
1.05. In panel (b), the magnitude of the template event Md = 3.55 is probably much larger
than the true magnitude, given the amplitude of waveform and similarity with those
shown in (a). In (c), the estimated magnitude for the detected event is M = 2.6, while the
magnitude listed in the NCSN catalog is only Md = 1.07. Given the amplitude ratio
between the template and detected event, it is likely that the magnitude of the template
event Md = 1.98 is over estimated. Panel (d) represents a true detected event with
estimated M = 2.7.
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Supplementary Note 3: Examples of Detections at Different Locations
Figure S6 shows the detections for 7 template events at various distances and depths
along the fault strike. The detection rates for the last two events around Gold Hill (GH)
near the mainshock epicenter are much larger than other events that are further away
around Middle Mountain (MM), suggesting different occurrence patterns of aftershocks
in distinct regions. In addition, events with shallow (Figure S6a) and deep (Figure
S6b,d,e) hypocentral depths generally have less detection as compared with those at
intermediate depths (Figures S6c,f,g). In particular, the template event 20031021090015
is the last event in the SAFOD LA targeting clusters before the 2004 Parkfield earthquake
(Robert Nadeau, per. comm., 2007). The first detected event occurred on 09/29/2004
00:26:55, about 7 hours after the mainshock. In comparison, the first repeating SAFOD
targeting event after the Parkfield mainshock as listed in the Thurber et al.2 relocated
catalog occurred at 9/30/2004 04:34:53, about 35 hours after the mainshock. A detailed
earthquake relocation based on waveform cross-correlation is needed to determine
whether these newly detected events belong to the SAFOD targeting events or not (e.g.,
ref 11), which is beyond the scope of this study. However, the similarities of waveforms
between these newly detected events and those listed in the SAFOD targeting events
indicate that they must occur very close to each other (Figure S7). In summary, within the
waveform detection ability, our result suggests that the SAFOD target regions did not
become active until 7 hours after the mainshock.
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Figure S6. Examples of positive detections for 7 template events. The mean CC values
above the detection threshold of 9 times the MAD (red dashed line) are plotted with time
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since the Parkfield mainshock. These 7 events occur at different along-strike distances
and hypocentral depths. The event ID, along-strike distance, depth, and number of
detections are marked on top of each panel.
Figure S7. 2-8 Hz band-pass-filtered vertical seismograms recorded at station
MMNB. The first event was used as the template. The red traces correspond to three
newly detected events. The black traces correspond to events listed in the Thurber et al.2
catalog and belong to the SAFOD LA repeating cluster (Robert Nadeau, per. comm.,
2007). The corresponding magnitude is also marked on the top right of each trace.
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Supplementary Note 4: Detailed Investigations of Aftershock Migration
The aftershocks could potentially expand further north in the creeping section, and
south towards Cholame than shown in Figure 3. However, we cannot detect aftershocks
in those regions, which are outside the spatial distribution of our template events in the
Thurber et al.2 catalog (ranging from –49 to 19 km in the along-strike direction). To rule
out such possibility, we examine the along-strike distance versus logarithmical time
relative to the 2004 Parkfield mainshock for all events listed in the standard NCSN
catalog (Figure S8), which covers a broader region than the Thurber et al.2 catalog. The
general feature is similar, in that aftershocks expend along the SAF strike with
logarithmical time since the mainshock. The migration speed in the creeping section is
close to those shown in Figure 3, and the aftershock area merges with the background
seismicity at about –50 to –45 km near 107 s (~115 day) after the mainshock. However,
the migration pattern is clearer in Figure 3 because of the significant increase of events in
that region. In comparison, the migration speed as outlined by aftershocks listed in the
NCSN catalog SE of the mainshock epicenter is 2.8 km/decade, while the migration
pattern in the detected aftershocks is not clear (Figure 3). Such a difference could be
caused by missing aftershocks SE of the epicenter in the first few days after the
mainshock, as illustrated in Figure 3. Nevertheless, it is clear that few aftershocks occur
beyond 20 km SE of the Parkfield mainshock.
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Figure S8. Migration of the aftershocks from the NCSN catalog. The occurrence
times relative to the 2004 Parkfield mainshock versus the along-strike distances for all
events listed in the NCSN catalog before (a) and after (b) the mainshock. The two black
lines mark the approximate slopes of migration of aftershocks along the fault strike. The
short bar marks the time scale of 1 hour, 1 day, 30 day, and 1000 day before or after the
mainshock.
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Based on their depth distributions, we separate all aftershocks into the following
depth range: 0 – 3, 3 – 9, and 9 – 16 km, and compare their migration patterns (Figure
S9). The shallow event above 3 km depth mostly occurred north of MM in the creeping
section of the SAF. The apparent migration speed is ~6 km/decade. The majority of
aftershocks occurred at intermediate depths between 3 and 9 km. Aftershocks started
immediately along the mainshock rupture zone, and the apparent migration speed is ~3.4
km/decade. Most deep events larger than 9 km occurred beneath and SE of MM. The
apparent migration speed is between 2.8 and 3.7 km/decade. By the end of the detection
period (09/30/2004), the aftershocks at shallow and intermediate depth expanded to 38-40
km along the SAF strike NW of the epicenter. In comparison, the deep aftershocks only
expanded to the distance of 26-28 km.
Finally, we examine the temporal evolution of the hypocentral depths for the detected
aftershocks. Because the migration pattern might be different for events at different
along-strike locations, we divide the entire aftershocks into three segments according to
their seismicity distributions: creeping section northwest of MM, beneath MM, and
southeast of MM (Figure S10). Except for a few outliers, the shallow aftershocks (i.e.,
top 5 km) in the creeping section northwest of MM and beneath MM appear to migrate in
the up-dip direction. However, a lack of shallow seismicity southeast of MM prevents us
from investigating the up-dip migration pattern in that segment. Similarly, the down-dip
migration is best shown in segments beneath and southwest of MM. The fact that most
aftershocks deeper than 9 km northwest of MM occurred ~1 day since the mainshock is
consistent with a relatively slow along-strike migration of deep seismicity (Figure S9).
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Figure S9. Along-strike Migration of aftershocks at different depths. The occurrence
times since the 2004 Parkfield mainshock versus the along-strike distances for events at
depth of 0 – 3 km (a), 3 – 9 km (b), and 9 – 16 km (c). Other symbols are the same as in
Figure 3b.
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Figure S10. Migration of the early aftershocks with depth. The occurrence times since
the 2004 Parkfield mainshock versus their hypocentral depths for events at the following
along-strike distances: creeping section northwest of MM (−50 ∼ −22) km (a), beneath
MM (−22 ∼ −18) km (b), and southeast of MM (−18 ∼ 20) km (c). The blue circles and
the red triangles mark the events listed in the Thurber et al.2 catalog and detected by the
matched filter technique, respectively. The short bar marks the time scale of 1 hour, 1 day,
and 30 day after the mainshock.
Supplementary Note 5: Seismic Activity Immediately Before the Parkfield
Mainshock
Because our detection time to start on the midnight of 09/28/2004, we have detected
some seismic activity before the occurrence of the Parkfield mainshock. Out of the 19
detected events on 09/28/2004, only 4 events are listed in the Thurber et al.2 catalog
before the Parkfield mainshock. The seismicity spreads out in space and time (Figures
S11-S12), and do not show any clustering around the hypocenter of the Parkfield
mainshock. Hence, it is clear that within the detection ability, we found no foreshock
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activity associated with the Parkfield mainshock. This is consistent with the lack of clear
preseismic strain signals during the weeks to seconds before the Parkfield mainshock12
.
Figure S11. Detected and catalog events before and after the Parkfield mainshock.
The occurrence times relative to the 2004 Parkfield mainshock versus the along-strike
distances for all events before (a) and after (b) the mainshock. The blue circles mark the
events listed in the Thurber et al.2 relocated catalog. The large green star marks the
location of the 2004 Parkfield mainshock, and the green dashed line denotes the
approximate fault length from the mainshock slip inversion1. The red small triangle mark
the event detected by the matched filter technique. The two black lines mark the
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approximate slopes of migration of aftershocks along the fault strike. The short bar marks
the time scale of 1 hour, 1 day, and 30 day before or after the mainshock.
Figure S12. Detected and catalog events before and after the Parkfield mainshock.
The occurrence times relative to the 2004 Parkfield mainshock versus the hypocentral
depths for all events before (a) and after (b) the mainshock in linear time scale, and
before (c) and after (d) the mainshock in logarithmic time scale. The blue circles and the
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red triangles mark the events listed in the Thurber et al.2 catalog and detected by the
matched filter technique. The two black lines mark the approximate slopes of migration
of aftershocks in up-dip and down-dip directions. The short bar marks the time scale of 1
hour, 1 day, and 30 day before or after the mainshock.
Supplementary Note 6: Apparent Migration Caused by Plotting the Time Axis as
Logarithmic
One potential cause of the apparent migration (Figures 3 and S8-S10) is an increase in
the number of samples by plotting the time axis in the logarithmic scale. Such bias does
exist if the seismicity rate is near constant. See for example Figure S11a and Figure S12c
for events before the mainshock. However, if the aftershocks follow the Omori’s law
decay with p = 1 immediately after the mainshock, we would expect equal number of
events in each logarithmic time bins and hence do not have such bias. In reality, the p
value for the Parkfield sequence is about 0.8-0.9 at later times, and we are still missing
events immediately after the mainshock (See Supplementary Note 2 and Figure S2). Both
would result an increase of the sample size with logarithmic time.
To further rule out such bias, we first generate plots similar to Figure 3 for
aftershocks with m ≥ 1.5 (Figure S13). This results in a significant reduction of the total
number of events, but with more uniform distribution of sample size with logarithmic
time. Next, we divide the whole catalog into 20 sub-catalogs with equal number of
aftershocks (Figure S14). In both cases, we find that similar migration patterns still exist.
We also generate synthetic catalogs by randomizing the origin times and the along-strike
distances (Figure S15). We find that randomizing the origin times could produce a pattern
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that mimic the logarithmic-type migration. However, the numbers of aftershocks are not
enough to match with the observed ones in the first few hours after the mainshock due to
the time randomization.
Finally, we compare the linear, logarithmic, and √t migration patterns in both linear
and logarithmic time scales (Figure S16). The √t migration pattern is predicted for fluid
induced seismicity, where the distance r = √4πDt, and D is the hydraulic diffusivities13
.
As shown in Figure S16, it is relatively easy to distinguish linear expansion with the other
two types. The expansion with logarithmic time is characterized by very rapid expansion
at early time and virtually no expansion at later times. In comparison, the expansion with
the square root of time is somewhat between the linear and logarithmic expansion. It
expands less rapidly at early time, and more at latter times as compared with the
logarithmic time expansion. Figure S17 shows that with one free parameter D, it is
relatively difficult to fit both the start and end of the observed seismicity front with √t
function. In addition, the obtained D is much larger than the typical range of 1-10 m2s
-1 in
the crust14
. Hence, we suggest that the migration pattern is best characterized by
logarithmic, rather than √t or linear functions.
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Figure S13. Migration of the Parkfield early aftershocks with m ≥ 1.5. (a) The cross-
section view of the all detected events with m ≥ 1.5 along the SAF color-coded by the
logarithmic time after the mainshock (green star). (b) The occurrence times of
aftershocks with m ≥ 1.5 since the 2004 Parkfield mainshock versus the along-strike
distances. Other symbols and notations are the same as in Figure 3.
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Figure S14. Aftershock migration plotted with equal number of events. (top left) The
cross-section view of the all detected events along the SAF color-coded by the
logarithmic time after the mainshock. The green star denotes the hypocenter of the
mainshock. The background shading denotes the mainshock slip distribution from Murry
and Langbein1. (top right) The background seismicity before the Parkfield mainshock.
(panel 1-20) Parkfield early aftershocks plotted in equal number of events.
Figure S15. Aftershock migration before and after randomization. (a) The
logarithmic occurrence times of all aftershocks within 2 km of the SAF strike since the
2004 Parkfield mainshock versus the along-strike distances. (b) The randomized
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occurrence times since the mainshock versus the along-strike distances. (c) The
occurrence times since the mainshock versus the randomized along-strike distances.
Figure S16. A comparison of different migration functions. A comparison of linear
(red), √t (green), and log10(t) (blue) functions in linear (a) and logarithmic scales. The
solid, dashed, and dotted lines correspond to slightly different parameters in each
function.
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Figure S17. Aftershock migration plotted in linear time scale. The along-strike
distances versus the occurrence times of all aftershocks within 2 km of the SAF strike
since the 2004 Parkfield mainshock. The blue line marks the best-fitting logarithmic
function and the green lines marks three √t functions with different D values. The panel
(a) shows the entire 55 hours and panel (b) shows the first 5 hours after the mainshock.
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Supplementary Note 7: Comparison with the Principle Component Analysis of
Savage and Langbein15
Many recent studies have focused on the comparison of the postseismic deformation
and cumulative number of aftershocks following several large earthquakes16-21
, including
the 2004 Parkfield earthquake15, 20-22
. In most cases, the postseismic deformation and the
cumulative number of aftershocks are linearly related. This led Perfettini and Avouac16
to
propose that both postseismic deformation and aftershocks are driven by reloading of the
seismogenic zone resulting from frictional afterslip.
Savage and Langbein15
performed a principal component analysis of the 12 continuous
GPS stations located close to the epicenter of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake, and found
that the first mode F1(t) alone provides an adequate description of the postseismic
deformation at all sites. In addition, they showed that after the first few days, the
temporal function F1(t) appears to be linearly related to the cumulative number of
aftershocks ΔN(t) with m > 1.5. However, the data within the first few days appears to
follow another linear relationship with different slope. Savage and Langbein15
suggested
that missing aftershocks immediately after the mainshock6 could not explain such change
in slope because the early aftershocks are already too many to match the linear
relationship established at later times.
To verify this, we compare the cumulative number of aftershocks with m > 1.5 obtained
from this study with the temporal function F1(t) used in Savage and Langbein15
. We use
the along-strike distance range of (−28.18 ~ 3.30) km, and distance range perpendicular
to the SAF strike of (−4.14 ~ 3.75) km to select aftershocks. Those numbers are chosen to
be close to the quadrilateral used in the study of Savage and Langbein15
. Aftershocks
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occurred later than 2.35 day after the mainshock (the end of our catalog) are taken from
the NCSN catalog in the same space window. We also removed the background rate of
0.0925 per day following the work of Savage and Langbein15
. As shown in Figure S18,
we find a break in the slope at ΔN(t) = 300 (t = 3.16 day). The break point and the slope
shown in Figure S18c are slightly different as compared with those in Figure 8c of
Savage and Langbein15
, most likely due to the minor difference in space window used in
selecting aftershocks. Because the temporal function appears to be smooth (Figure S18b),
we suggest that the break in slope mainly comes from the cumulative aftershocks. Figure
S18d shows that the difference in the slope is even larger if we use the newly detected
catalog, consistent with the previous inference that the observed feature is not caused by
missing early aftershocks, but by too many early aftershocks15
.
It is still unclear what is main cause of such break in slope. An increase of the slope
between the cumulative number of aftershocks and postseismic deformation suggests that
the partition between seismic and aseismic slip, i.e., the seismic coupling coefficient χ, is
larger immediately after the mainshock than at later times. One possible mechanism is the
transient embrittlement and/or strengthening of patches at high strain rates that are
otherwise creeping or partially creeping at low strain rates23-25
. A time-dependent
variation in the strain rate could also result in temporary deepening of the brittle-ductile
transition zone after the mainshock26-27
, and diminishing seismic moment of repeating
aftershocks25
. An alternative explanation is that other mechanisms, such as dynamic
stresses from the seismic waves generated by the mainshock (e.g., ref. 28, and reference
therein), contributed to trigger aftershocks immediately after the mainshock, but not at
later times. The third possibility is missing m > 1.5 aftershocks in the NCSN a few days
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after the mainshock (See also Supplementary Note 2 and Figures S3-S5). Although this is
in contradiction with the general view of increasing detection ability after the
mainshock4, we cannot completely rule it out at this stage. Applying the same matched
filter technique to the continuous data at later times after the mainshock could help to
resolve this issue.
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Figure S18. Cumulative number of aftershocks and post-seismic deformation. (a)
The cumulative number of aftershocks with m > 1.5 from the NCSN catalog (red) and the
combined catalog (green) versus the logarithmic time since the mainshock. The blue line
marks the end time of the newly detected catalog. The magenta and cyan lines mark the
break point inferred from the NCSN catalog (panel c) and the combined catalog (panel
d), respectively. (b) The composite principle components of the first mode F1(t) versus
the logarithmic time since the mainshock. The green circle, blue plus, and black square
mark the 1-min, 30-min and daily data, respectively. (c) The first mode F1(t) versus the
cumulative number of aftershocks from the NCSN catalog. The solid and dash blue lines
are the best linear fit to the data for ΔN(t) > 300 and < 300, respectively. The cyan line
marks the break point of ΔN(t) = 300 (t = 3.16 day). (d) The first mode F1(t) versus the
cumulative number of aftershocks from the combined catalog. The solid and dash blue
lines are the best linear fit to the data for ΔN(t) > 600 and < 600, respectively. The
magenta line marks the break point of ΔN(t) = 600 (t = 2.35 day).
Supplementary Note 8: Comparison with the Numerical Simulations of Kato29
Kato29
performed 3D numerical simulations to study aftershock expansions triggered
by propagating postseismic sliding (i.e., afterslip) with varying frictional parameters a
and b of the laboratory-derived rate-state dependent friction law30
. He found that the
radius of the aftershock area expands logarithmically with time since the mainshock, and
the rate of aftershock expansion is inversely proportional to the value of A−B
(=(a−b)σeff), where σeff is the effective normal stress. The latter effect can be explained by
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an increase of steady-state frictional stress (and hence resistance to postseismic sliding)
with increasing A−B value29
.
Here we compare the migration speed obtained in this study with the simulation results
of Kato29
. We first define the mainshock rupture area to be 28 km NW and 4 km SE of
the mainshock epicenter, based on the mainshock slip inversions (e.g., refs 1,31) and the
extent of the aftershock area in the first 100-200 s after the mainshock (Figure 3). Next,
we use a mainshock rupture radius Rs of 16 km and effective mainshock epicenter at 12
km NW of the true epicenter to convert the convert the along-strike distance into ratio
relative to the mainshock rupture radius (R/Rs). Figure S19 shows that the observed
migration speed is roughly consistent with the simulated migration speeds for A−B value
of 0.2–0.5 MPa. The simulation with A−B value of 0.1 MPa does not match the
observations well because all aftershocks occurred within the first month. In comparison,
there is a lack of early aftershocks in the first 500 s and very few events in the first day
for A−B value of 0.8 MPa, inconsistent with the general pattern shown in Figure S19a. As
noted in the main text, the corresponding value of a–b is in the range of 0.004–0.01,
assuming an effective normal stress of 50 MPa32
. Our value is close to the value of 0.007
obtained by geodetic inversion of Barbot et al.33
, and is an order of magnitude higher than
the value of 0.0001–0.002 obtained by Johnson et al.32
. By analyzing afterslip of the 2003
Mw8.0 Tokachi-Oki earthquake, Miyazaki et al.34
and Fukuda et al.35
obtained the A-B
value of 0.6 MPa and 0.214-0.220 MPa, respectively, close to the values inferred in this
study.
We note that the simulation done in Kato29
is not designed specifically for the Parkfield
region. While the rupture radius of the simulated mainshock is 15 km, which is close to
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the true rupture length of ~32 km for the Parkfield mainshock, the average co-seismic
slip and the resulting seismic moment is 1-2 order larger than those for the Parkfield
mainshock. In addition, the simulated aftershock has a rupture radius of 3 km,
corresponding to a moment magnitude Mw = 5.5 (with the assumption 3 MPa stress drop
and the circular crack model of Eshelby36). In comparison, the largest aftershock of the
Parkfield mainshock has Mw = 5.0, and the majority of aftershocks has much smaller
magnitude. Finally, the simulated aftershocks only occur once within the 3-yr recurrence
interval, and they occur right at the time of the inferred seismicity propagation front. In
comparison, only a few aftershocks occur near the migration front, and the majority of
aftershocks occur behind the migration front. Hence, the above comparison needs to be
viewed with caution. A future simulation with parameters similar to the real Parkfield
environment would help to convert the obtained migration speeds into frictional
parameters along the SAF.
Figure S19. Comparison of aftershock migration with numerical simulations. (a) The
occurrence times of aftershocks from the NCSN (blue) and detected catalogs versus the
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R/Rs since the Parkfield mainshock. The black dashed line marks the approximate
migration of the seismicity front, and the green dashed line mark the approximate
mainshock radius. (b) The occurrence times of simulated aftershocks versus the R/Rs for
Case 1-5 with varying A−B values shown in Figure 8 of Kato29
.
Supplementary Note 9: Limitations and Future Development of the Technique
While the matched filter technique developed in this study is effective in detecting
many missing aftershocks immediately after the mainshock, it has several limitations:
First, it requires the usage of waveforms of existing events as template. Hence, it can
only detect events around the region that have template events. Brown et al.37
have
developed a technique to search for low-frequency earthquakes within non-volcanic
tremor by performing running autocorrelation of the continuous waveforms. Such
technique could also be applied to detect and locate events without the requirement of
pre-existing templates.
Secondly, we choose the 20 samples/s data, rather than the 250 samples/s data
recorded by the HRSN in this study. This is mainly limited by the heavy computation
associated with the sliding-window cross-correlations. Because of this, we only applied a
2-8 Hz filter to the data. So the mainshock coda is longer and could mask some early
aftershocks in the first 100-200 s. In addition, many HRSN recordings clipped in the first
50 s. Hence, our catalog is likely missing some early aftershocks immediately after the
mainshock. As mentioned by Peng et al.6, the 2004 Parkfield earthquake and its
immediate aftershocks were recorded by many nearby instruments on scale. These
include the SAFOD pilot hole38
, the USGS GEOS Parkfield array39
, the CGS Parkfield
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strong motion arrays40
, and the USGS Parkfield Dense Seismograph Array (UPSAR)41
.
Although most of these instruments are set in triggered mode, the rigorous aftershock
sequences result in continuous recordings in the first few hundred seconds or so. Figure
S20 shows an example of on-scale recording of the Parkfield mainshock and its
aftershocks within the first 1000 s by one of the SAFOD Pilot Hole instruments PH001 at
1096 m depth below surface. The numerous spikes in the spectrogram correspond to the
early aftershock signals, with only 16 of them listed in the NCSN catalog. As noted
before, our early aftershock catalog is still not complete in the first few hundred seconds.
We envision that the same matched filter technique could be applied to those on-scale
continuous recordings and higher frequency bands
to detect the missing events
immediately after the Parkfield mainshock.
Finally, depending on the mean CC value, the identified event could have a small but
distinguishable separation from the template event. In this study, we simply assign the
location of the template with the highest CC value to the detected event. A further
development of our matched filter technique is to integrate the information of waveform
similarity and relative arrival times between the template and detected events to relocate
these events using the double-difference algorithm (e.g., refs 42, 43). These studies will
be performed in a follow-up work.
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Figure S20. Parkfield early aftershocks recorded by the SAFOD Pilot Hole station.
(a) The raw vertical-component seismogram recorded at the SAFOD Pilot Hole station
PH001 within the first 1000 s after the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield earthquake. (b) The
corresponding spectrogram of (a) showing the mainshock and numerous early
aftershocks. The think horizontal line at 40 Hz marks the corner of the high-pass filter,
and the thin bands around 60 and 184 Hz mark the continuous electronic noise. (c) The
envelope functions of the median-averaged spectrogram above 40 Hz. The vertical blue
and red lines mark the origin times of 16 and 130 aftershocks listed in the NCSN catalog
and detected by our technique, respectively.
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