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o c e ce, ro a y Judgement and

SuperstitionWhat is a ‘coincidence’?Why might there be an evolutionary

advantage in assuming that coincidences

have a reason?What is the relationship between

coincidence and ‘probabilitymisjudgement’?

What is the relationship betweencoincidence and superstition?

Why are pigeons superstitious? In whatway?

What functions do superstitious beliefs

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ro a y u e e ,coincidence and

supersitionExplanations for anomalousexperience

 The role of coincidence andprobability  judgements in anomalousexperience

Explanations for superstitious 

behaviour and magical thinkingPersonality factors underlying

anomalous experience

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Be random!

Write 5o digits (0-9) in a randomorder.

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How good are people at judging probability?

Which of these sets of lotterynumbers is more likely to come up?

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 612, 19, 24, 28, 34, 41

How big a group of people do youneed before the chance of two of 

them sharing a birthday is above50%?23, 43, or 98?

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Bad judgers of probability:

How does ‘repetition avoidance’identify them?

How do they score on ‘belief in theparanormal’ scales?What is the validity problem here?

Why do they believe in horoscopes?Why are they taken in by ‘psychic

mediums’?

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s pro a y u e erelated to belief in the

paranormal?Blackmore 100 volunteers aged 12-67 years and got them to assess

probability in coin tossing task.Also gave them a ‘belief in theparanormal’ questionnaire. The ‘goats’ performed much better. How is this related to the role of 

coincidence and superstition in paranormal belief?

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Homework for Thursday

Notes addressing the questions onyour ‘coincidence and probability

 judgements’ sheet.

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‘Supersense’?

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vo u o aryexplanations for

superstitious behaviourAssuming that a ‘coincidence’ (twoevents occurring close together in

time) means that the two arecausally related may have hadadaptive value for our ancestors. Atleast, the consequences of assuming

false causal links would have usuallybeen much better than missing realcausal links.

Explain this statement fully.

i f i i

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Formation of superstitiousbehaviour through operantconditioning

How did Skinner make pigeons‘superstitious’?

Explain this using the concept of ‘reinforcement’.How does this relate to the

evolutionary argument?

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Links

Superstitious pigeons:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xr

Superstitions soldiers:http://

news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_ 

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