Super Schedule Analysis USING THE SUPER RANKINGS TO ANALYZE
YOUR FANTASY SCHEDULE MAT HARRISON --- @EXPLOSIVEOUTPUT
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What Are the Super Rankings? The Super Rankings derived from
pitting the fantasy player against the fantasy defense on a weekly
basis. Two years ago, CP and I put on our analyst hats, and added
key stat inputs (offensive line ranking, age, depth, career carries
and projections) in order to project a full season. This didnt come
without many mistakes, pain and agony We bounced several ideas back
and forth, almost acting as fantasy therapists with the Super
Rankings as the lost subject. We put it all together and we
got
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Analyst + Therapist =
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Key Points About Schedule Analysis Good and bad STARTS are much
easier to predict than easy or difficult fantasy playoff runs.
Today, were not looking at the end of the season. Looking for
favorable starts to the season. Avoiding difficult stretches to
kick off the year. If you roster too many players with a tough open
to the schedule, by Week 7 you may have changed your license plate
to this
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The Curious Case of Nick Foles
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Last year Nick Foles started 11 games, had 27 TD passes and
only 2 interceptions. His opponents (rank vs. QB): Giants (12),
Buccaneers (27), Cowboys (31), Raiders (29), Packers (26),
Washington (22), Cardinals (19), Lions (14), Vikings (32), Bears
(9), Cowboys AGAIN (31) SEVEN of his opponents were in the bottom
10 vs. QBs Only ONE of his opponents cracked the top 10
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Schedule Means Something The five toughest schedules for QBs
last season: Arizona - Carson Palmer (finished 25 th among QBs)
Atlanta Matt Ryan (finished 18 th well below ADP) Minnesota
Christian Ponder (finished in Minnesota) San Francisco Colin
Kaepernick (finished 14 th well below ADP) Tampa Bay Josh Freeman
(was cut in October, may finish in Canada) Tampa Bay Mike Glennon
(impressed so much that he was replaced by Josh McCown)
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Todays Super Rankings Today were using a yardage-heavy scoring
system 1 point/25 yards passing 1 point/10 yards rushing or
receiving 1 point per reception 4 points per touchdown pass 6
points per rushing or receiving touchdown For more versions of the
Super Rankings, check out LeagueSafe Post
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Quarterbacks Hot Starts Drew Brees Start: at ATL, at CLE, MIN,
at DAL, TB, bye, at DET, GB SIX of those seven teams finished as
BOTTOM 13 in FFpts vs. QB last season Russell Wilson Start: GB, at
SD, DEN, bye, at WAS, DAL ALL FIVE of those teams finished in the
bottom 11 last season FFpts vs. QB Sam Bradford Start: MIN, at TB,
DAL, bye, at PHI ALL FOUR of those teams finished in the bottom 8
last year vs. QB. BRADFORD BUYERS BEWARE: His next 4 games: SF
(twice) SEA, KC
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Quarterbacks Tough Starts Aaron Rodgers Start: at SEA, NYJ, at
DET, at CHI, MIN, at MIA, CAR, at NO FIVE of Rodgers first eight
opponents finished in the top 9 vs. QBs last season Jay Cutler
Start: BUF, at SF, at NYJ, GB, at CAR, at ATL, MIA FOUR of Cutlers
first seven opponents finished in the top 8 vs. QBs in 2013 Joe
Flacco Start: CIN, PIT, at CLE, CAR, at IND Only Cleveland did not
finish in the top half vs. QB last year, they get healthy Joe Haden
and rookie Justin Gilbert
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Running Backs Hot Starts Arian Foster Start: WAS, at OAK, at
NYG, BUF, at DAL WAS, OAK and DAL were bottom 5 vs. RBs last season
Pierre Thomas Start: at ATL, at CLE, MIN, DAL Three of the Saints
first four opponents were bottom 10 in the league vs. RBs in 2013
Frank Gore Start: at DAL, CHI Dallas and Chicago were the worst two
defenses vs. RB last year, Gore gets them in Week 1 and 2.
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Running Backs Tough Starts Ryan Mathews Start: at ARI, SEA, at
BUF, JAC, NYJ Arizona, Seattle and the Jets were the 3 toughest
teams to run on in 2013 Rashad Jennings Start: at DET, ARI, HOU
Detroit and Arizona were top 4 vs. RB last season, Houston ranked
15 th. Steven Jackson (didnt make this list!) Start: NO, at CIN, TB
Each of those three teams were in the top 8 against RBs last
season. Montee Ball Start: IND, KC, at SEA, bye, ARI, at NYJ, SF,
SD SIX of his first seven games are against top 13 defenses vs. RB
(KC was 16 th )
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Wide Receivers Hot Starts Andre Johnson Start: WAS, at OAK, at
NYG, BUF, at DAL WAS, OAK and DAL were bottom 12 vs. WRs last
season, BUF 15th Victor Cruz Start: at DET, ARI, HOU, at WAS, ATL,
at PHI, at DAL Five of Cruzs first seven opponents ranked in the
bottom 12 vs. WR in 2013 Julian Edelman Start: at MIA, at MIN, OAK,
at KC Miami was 8 th best vs. WR last year, Vikings, Raiders and
Chiefs were bottom 10 in the league vs. position
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Wide Receivers Tough Starts Keenan Allen Start: at ARI, SEA
Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman to kick off a season, thank
you very much. Julio Jones Start: NO, at CIN, TB, at MIN, at NYG
Giants, Bengals and Saints each ranked in the top 8 vs. WR last
year. Tampa added Verner Void, Vikings secondary should be better
under Zimmer Vincent Jackson Start: CAR, STL, at ATL, at PIT, at NO
Panthers, Saints, Steelers ranked in top 12 vs. position in 2013,
Rams not far behind in 15 th
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I wish you nothing but @ExplosiveOutput this season
