Upload
emilia
View
39
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Super-Regional Modeling Testbed to Improve Forecasts of Environmental Processes for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coasts Wright, L.D.; Signell, R.; Friedrichs, C.; Harding, J.; Howlett, E.; Levin, D.; Luettich, R.; and Smith, E. 15 February 2011 ASLO 2011 Aquatic Sciences Meeting - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Super-Regional Modeling Testbed to Improve Forecasts of Environmental Processes for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coasts
Wright, L.D.; Signell, R.; Friedrichs, C.; Harding, J.; Howlett, E.; Levin, D.; Luettich, R.; and Smith, E.
Super-Regional Modeling Testbed to Improve Forecasts of Environmental Processes for the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coasts
Wright, L.D.; Signell, R.; Friedrichs, C.; Harding, J.; Howlett, E.; Levin, D.; Luettich, R.; and Smith, E.
15 February 2011ASLO 2011 Aquatic Sciences Meeting
S41 Ecological Forecasting: Progress, Challenges and Prospects
• Southeastern Universities Research Assn (SURA)
• Motivation for the Testbed: Improving prediction of environmental processes
• Design of this Testbed
• Year 1 Products
• Future work
Outline
SURA’s Mission: To advance nuclear physics, information technology, and
facilitate better understanding of coastal and environmental phenomena that impact our lives.
• Southeastern Universities Research Assn (SURA)
• Motivation for the testbed: Improving prediction of environmental processes
• Design of this testbed
• Year 1 products
• Future work
Outline
Improving Forecasts of Coastal Environmental Processes
• Factors: – open boundary conditions, – surface and river forcing conditions, – enhanced physics, – adjustable parameters, – data assimilation, numerics, amount of data assimilated,– skill of modelers(!), – vertical and horizontal resolution, – coupling to wave and met models.
• “Which model is better?” is not the right question. – What factors in the simulation resulted in a better solution? – How much better? – At what cost?
Defining Improvement • To measure improvement for environmental processes, we
need to define skill metrics for specific environmental processes and often for specific region:
• Inundation ✔• Hypoxia ✔• Search and rescue• Deep oil spills • Navigation• Harmful algal blooms
• Diver operations• Alternative energy citing • Beach erosion• Regional impact of climate
change
-- ALL REQUIRE DIFFERENT SKILL METRICS!
Operational centers will directly benefit from the community’s help in this process – too broad for NOAA and NAVY!
The ocean community needs a common cyberinfrastructure to access, analyze and display data from the different models: each model community currently has their own standards and toolsets.
A Common Cyberinfrastructure for Model Data
Structured Grids Unstructured Grid
5x5
6x3
10 nodes
Variety of StretchedVertical Coordinates
• Southeastern Universities Research Assn (SURA)
• Motivation for the testbed: improving prediction of environmental processes
• Design of this testbed
• Year 1 products
• Future work
Outline
A Testbed Framework for Coastal Ocean Models
• Build a common infrastructure to enable access, analysis and visualization of all coastal ocean model data produced by NOAA, NAVY and IOOS
• Develop skill metrics and assess models in three different regions and dynamical regimes, to ensure a robust and powerful infrastructure
• Identify factors that could be transitioned to operations
• Build stronger relationships between academia and operational centers through collaboration
Testbed “Management”
25 members
Testbed Management
Don Wright, Project PILiz Smith, SURADoug Levin, Program Mgr
Testbed Advisory/Evaluation
Group
Rich Signell, USGS
7 members
Testbed Teams
Estuarine HypoxiaChesapeake Bay
Carl Friedrichs, VIMS
21 members
Shelf HypoxiaGulf of Mexico
John Harding, MSU
Shelf HypoxiaGulf of Mexico
Shelf HypoxiaGulf of Mexico
Coastal InundationGulf and East CoastRick Luettich, UNC-CH
Cyber Infrastructure
Eoin Howlett, ASA
20 members 24 members
CyberinfrastructureAll Regions – All Teams Extending CI from OGC, Unidata and
others (NOAA DMIT, USGS CDI) to support unstructured grids, and add functionality
Web Access via OpenDAP w/CF Unidata Common Data Model/NetCDF
Java Library API Distributed search capability Browser based map viewer (WMS) Toolbox for scientific desktop analysis All components standards-based!
Search services
Mapping services and browse application
Analyze in scientific desktop application
Shelf Hypoxia Gulf of MexicoHydrodynamic & biogeochemical hindcast comparisons of hypoxia models (stand alone) coupled to 3 different Gulf of Mexico hydrodynamics modelsEvaluation of two shelf hypoxia formulations (NOAA & EPA)
Shelf Hypoxia Gulf of MexicoHydrodynamic & biogeochemical hindcast comparisons of hypoxia models (stand alone) coupled to 3 different Gulf of Mexico hydrodynamics modelsEvaluation of two shelf hypoxia formulations (NOAA & EPA)
ROMS Surface and bottom water oxygen
mmol O2 m-3
By R. Hetland, K. Fennel and C. Harris
Estuarine Hypoxia Chesapeake Bay
1. Estuary:– 5 Hydrodynamic models– 3 Biological (DO) models– 2004 data from 28 CBP stations– Comparing T, S, max (dS/dz), DO via target diagrams2. Shelf: OBCs 5 hydrodynamic models
Estuarine Hypoxia Chesapeake Bay
1. Estuary:– 5 Hydrodynamic models– 3 Biological (DO) models– 2004 data from 28 CBP stations– Comparing T, S, max (dS/dz), DO via target diagrams2. Shelf: OBCs 5 hydrodynamic models
Models doing better on oxygen than stratification!(by M. Friedrichs)
Stratification (dS/Dz)
Dissolved Oxygen
Inundation Extra-tropical – Gulf of MaineTropical – Gulf of Mexico
4 models: 3 unstructured grid +1 structured grid; Coupled wave-storm surge-inundation (total water
level) Consistent forcing, validation and skill assessment
using existing IMEDS tool, Extensive observational data sets for historical
storms Ike, Rita and Gustav in standard formats, SURA has provided supercomputer resources.
Inundation Extra-tropical – Gulf of MaineTropical – Gulf of Mexico
4 models: 3 unstructured grid +1 structured grid; Coupled wave-storm surge-inundation (total water
level) Consistent forcing, validation and skill assessment
using existing IMEDS tool, Extensive observational data sets for historical
storms Ike, Rita and Gustav in standard formats, SURA has provided supercomputer resources.
Extratropical Grid for Scituate, MA
Tropical Grids for Galveston Bay
Inundation Extra-tropical – Gulf of MaineTropical – Gulf of Mexico
- 4 models: 3 unstructured grid +1 structured grid- Coupled wave-storm surge-inundation (TWL)- Consistent forcing, validation and skill assessment using existing IMEDS tool - Extensive observational data sets for historical
storms Ike, Rita and Gustav in standard formats- SURA has provided supercomputer resources
Inundation Extra-tropical – Gulf of MaineTropical – Gulf of Mexico
- 4 models: 3 unstructured grid +1 structured grid- Coupled wave-storm surge-inundation (TWL)- Consistent forcing, validation and skill assessment using existing IMEDS tool - Extensive observational data sets for historical
storms Ike, Rita and Gustav in standard formats- SURA has provided supercomputer resources
Tropical Grids for Galveston Bay
Interactive Modeling Evaluation and Diagnostic Systems
http://testbed.sura.org
• Foundation of a cyberinfrastructure framework for search, access and display of all NOAA, NAVY and IOOS model data, via browser and scientific desktop application
• Skill metrics and identification of key performance factors and cost for three important dynamical regimes and environmental issues
• Concept of Operations for transition from research to operations
• Improved communication between research and operations
Testbed Year 1 Products
• Expand to more regions and problems
• Examine more factors (e.g. data assimilation)
• Build out the cyberinfrastructure
• Conduct training in the community
• Sustaining future development
Future Work for the Testbed