Proprietary & confidential. © Decision Lens 2013

Super Bowl XLVII Prediction

Super Bowl Predictions

! Rely on many factors

! Quantifiable measures of team performance

! Intangible assessments of momentum

! We can draw on the predictions of a large number of

experts in the field

2

Decision Lens Application

! Blend together quantitative and qualitative

assessments

! Sensitivity analysis allows for examination of “what-if”

scenarios

! Hierarchy process works well for breaking down

criteria, e.g. offense, defense, and special teams

3

Three Main Factors

! Advanced Statistics

! Expert/Group Assessments ! Vegas Lines, Pundits, National Polls

! Intangibles ! Momentum, Previous Super Bowl Experience, etc.

4

Advanced Statistics

! Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)

! Developed by Football Outsiders

! Accounts for outside factors to provide accurate

assessment of offense, defense, and special teams

! Publicly available results

5

Expert/Group Assessments

! Point spreads and moneyline bets show how Vegas

oddsmakers view the probabilities of each team’s

victory

! Football Outsiders uses their DVOA formulas and

others to make a prediction

! Crowd-sourced opinions from ESPN’s SportsNation

poll of over 300,000 fans

6

Intangibles

! Momentum, injury risk, coaching record

! Ray Lewis

! Ability to analyze qualitative factors a strength for

Decision Lens

7

Results

Three Scenarios ! “Stat-Heavy”

! “Defense Wins Championships”

! “Trust The Experts”

Score of 1 means best in the league in every category and 100%

chance to win game

Score of 0 means worst in the league in every category and 0% chance to win game

8

Stat-Heavy

! 60% of weight is allocated to advanced statistics ! Defense equal importance to offense ! Passing > Rushing ! Special teams mild impact

! Total scores: San Francisco .589, Baltimore .536 Close San Francisco win

9

Defense Wins Championships

! Less weight is allocated to statistics, but that weight is more heavily allocated to defense

! Total scores: San Francisco .628, Baltimore .476 San Francisco’s defensive advantage is larger than their advantage in other areas

10

Trust The Experts

! More weight is allocated to the predictive measures of Vegas oddsmakers, Football Outsiders, and ESPN’s crowd-sourced poll

! Total scores: San Francisco .611, Baltimore .461 Experts are confident in San Francisco’s chances of victory

11

How could Baltimore win?

! Baltimore has advantages in two categories ! Special Teams performance

! Intangible factor of Ray Lewis

! Situations in which Baltimore scores higher depend on one or both of those factors having a much higher weight than normal

12

Conclusion

! Decision Lens predicts a medium-sized victory for

San Francisco, neither blowout nor nailbiter

! Most likely scenario of a Baltimore victory involves a

game-changing special teams play

! Jacoby Jones (BAL) has 3 return tds this season

! David Akers (SF) has had an off year kicking

13

Conclusion

14

Stat Heavy Conclusion

15

Conclusion – Highest Level Criteria

16

17

For more information about this presentation and

sports related predictions please contact

Gavin Byrnes – gbyrnes@decisionlens.com

He loves this stuff.