Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Sunny with a Chance. Elwynn Taylor Weather Impacts on Agriculture Urban- AgAcademy Ag-101. Geislers , 3 miles East. Prairie & Climate. The Wealth of the Earth Highest Productivity Known Highest Carbon Sequestration 35% Grass, 35% Legume, 30% other . 40% Corn, 30% Soybean. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Sunny with a Chance
Elwynn TaylorWeather Impacts on Agriculture
Urban-AgAcademyAg-101
Geislers, 3 miles East
Prairie & ClimateThe Wealth of the Earth
Highest Productivity KnownHighest Carbon Sequestration
35% Grass, 35% Legume, 30% other
40% Corn, 30% Soybean
Bio-Fuel (Utah, 1944)
• Something like our 8N• Our food acres increased 50%
Ballard Springs PondMillville silt-loam
• Reduction of farm land• Fuel market competes with feed
market
of citrus’, sandwiches, & climates change
In 1968 cooling was a major concern, so was population (Paul Ehrlich). “The greatest threat is our energy hunger, I ordered a lunch delivered, from 1400 miles away.” Dr. Hyrum Johnson
Global Energy Demand is Rising Rapidly Because Energy Consumption and Income are Linked
Energy Demand Reduction?
Energy Farming
Bio-FuelReduce Atmospheric Carbon?Convert coal to liquid fuel?
Economy: Fuel or Food?
Alternatives: Hydro, Wind, Solar, Nuclear
Production Outlook
Grain or Fiber?• Improved yield–Maize U. S. yield 1960-2009
x3.0– Rice World yield 1960-2009
x2.3– Rice Philippines yield
x3.1– Rice U. S. yield
x2.3 I S U
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 20400
102030405060708090
100110120130140150160170180190200 U.S. Corn (Maize) Bu/acre
1930 25 BPA
1979 100 BPA
1956 50 BPA
2030 200 BPA
I S U
The Crop TrendTrends changeTrend & Volatility
Trend is Technology + Climate Change
Volatility is Weather + Climate Cycles
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Resource Capture
Almost 60 in 1894, 121 in 2007
1950-1993 Precipitation
Precipitation Change for Iowa
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20200
10
20
30
40
50
60
f(x) = 0.0517145900733844 x − 69.0758854257082
Ames, IA Precipitation by year 1893-2007
100+ yr Precipitation
Increased Stream Flow:Increased # of Flood-prone Years
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
f(x) = 6.93204241599198 x − 12627.4395898116
Turkey River at Garber, IA
12
34
5
67
8
9
10
Warm Winters Cold Winters
COLD
WARM
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/weekly-sst.php
•
La Niña Outlook 9Mar 2012• 30% Chance La Niña persists into Summer• 60% Chance El Niño begins immediately • 10% Chance of Neutral ? ?
• Minimal chance of Neutral SOI• 30% Chance of La Niña with US Yield < 148 BPA $6.60• 60% Chance of El Niño with US Yield > 168 BPA $5.00• 10% Chance of neutral with US Trend+ 164 BPA $5.15• $ from Wisner 2/9/2012• http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf
Based on the evolution of recent atmosphere-ocean conditions, I am dropping the odds from 50/50 to less than 30% for continued La Niña conditions into the upcoming summer. In fact, there is a distinct possibility that we could see a switch to El Niño by mid-2012. … ([email protected]), (303) 497-6340
Soy 41bpa $11.95, 43.5bpa $10.60, 45.5bpa $10.35
Today DEC corn $5.60 May corn $6.50
Madden-Julian
• Contributing to the weather today• wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/22/the-madden-julian-oscillation/
•
• mesonet.agron.iastate.edu
•
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120629_rpts.html
IL
•
IL (historical)
•
•
IL (historical)
•
Outlook• Warm through Sat, then not as warm• Thunder storms possible• Then through 24 Mar:
• Based on current atmosphere-ocean conditions, I believe the odds for this La Niña event to continue right through early summer (June-July 2012) are just about 50%. Beyond that, it is worth noting that four of the ten two-year La Niña events between 1900 and 2009 ended up as a three-year event, so I would put the odds for this to occur in 2012-13 at 40% right now.
• http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
