Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 1 Investigating “Hider” Theory New Horizons in Search Theory 4 th Workshop

Tuesday, April 18, 2023

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Investigating “Hider” Theory


New Horizons in Search Theory4th Workshop


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Presentations

• Group 1: Hiding Contraband (WMD)Steve Basile, Jeff Cares, Bill Glenney, Tim Mertens, Frank Tito

• Group 2: ASW and Other Military ExamplesMichelle Jarvais, David Jarvis, Rich Katz, Brian McCue, Bill Pruitt


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Group 1: Hiding Contraband (WMD)

Steve Basile, Jeff Cares, Bill Glenney, Tim Mertens, Frank Tito


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Operational Context• General Competitive

Context– Hider, Searcher with active

strategies– Not necessarily mirror image

strategies• Forces, Elements Involved

(all have some signature)– Organization

• Policy makers, financiers, scientists, technicians, deliverers, suppliers

• Communications, contracts, policies, links, social networks, trust, fear, etc.

– Resources • Could be outwardly benign,

particularly in isolation• e.g., site, money, raw

materials, recipe, etc.• Could be virtual, distributed

– Process• Arrangement of resources

and organization to produce contraband

– Contraband• End product of a process

• Environmental Considerations– Size of the thing

and the area in which it is hidden

– Background (ambient noise in the environment)

– Backyard (familiarity with background)

– Neutral or unrelated activity (affects positively or negatively)

– Clutter, evasion, deception, decoy, camouflage

GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband


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Operational Problem• Hide what?

– Organization, resources, process or contraband

– Specifically undeclared WMD

• Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, Explosive

• Stockpile volume equivalent to a 3-car garage

• Hide where?– Within a country

• With exceptions, e.g., resources, people, money can go global

• Hide why?– Because it is illegal

• Prevent sanctions• Protect sovereignty

– Surprise– Obscure scale

• Ambiguity about intentions, capability, size of arsenal, readiness

– Protect stockpile• For later use,

survivability, prevent theft, sale value, deterrent value

– Affect world/regional/local opinion

• Sympathy for regime if WMD remains hidden

• Affect political events (e.g., 2004 US election)

• Support larger political strategy

• Hide when?– For months or years



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Major Process Elements

• What are the major factors that impact hider success?

• What are the relationships between these major factors?

• Are any of these substantially greater than the others?



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Process Diagram

PROCESS

CONTRABAND

RESOURCES

ORGANIZATION



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Network Strategy

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Ratio of Buttons to Strings

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Kauffman, At Home in the Universe, p.57


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Insights and Conclusions

• Many of the parts are in plain sight• Links are often the things that are

telling– Hider needs “invisible thread”

• Search for contraband very like ASW– Hider relies on big area/small

stockpile

• Hider relies on knowledge or searcher’s capabilities, location

• High combinatoric space to hide in– Network of org + resourcesGROUP 1: Hiding Contraband


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Group 2: ASW and Other Military Examples

Michelle Jarvais, David Jarvis, Rich Katz, Brian McCue, Bill Pruitt


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GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples

Potential Operational Scenarios• Orange ASUW on Blue HVU (Carrier)

– Transiting– Flights Operations

• “Dipping Game”• SOF Scenario – Minimize hiding discontinuities

(hiders coming from a hider)

• Submarine vs. submarine example– Searcher who is also a hider– Differences in hiding between nuclear, diesel and

AIP subs• “The Great Scud Hide”

– Any type of mobile missile launchers (TELs, Soviet nuclear trucks)

• Mine fields• SSBN Example

– Our mission is to hide


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Operational Context:Submarine Attack on Carrier

• General competitive context– Orange trying to sink Blue Carrier in one of two

scenarios, transiting to an operational area and carrier flight operations in a coastal area

• Forces, elements involved– Orange

• Subs• OIA- Other Information Assets (aircraft to cue

subs, etc.)– Blue

• Carrier (PRIMARY HIDER) - a big ship in a bigger ocean

• Subs• Helicopters• Other Information Assets (surface escorts, air,

satellites, etc.)• Environmental considerations

– Water depth, distance from coastline, conditions of the body of water (salinity, temperature, bottom type, etc.)


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Orange Sub Orange OIA

Blue Carrier Search & KillHIDE

CueHIDE

Blue Sub HIDE, Search & KillSearch & Kill

CueHIDE

Blue Helo HIDE

Search & KillN/AN/A

Blue OIA N/ACue

Jamming, spoofing, hacking, cyberwar


Operational Context: Submarine Attack on Carrier


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Operational Context:Submarine Attack on Carrier• Describe the specific Hider

application– Hide what?

• The PRIMARY HIDER is the Blue Carrier• SECONDARY HIDERS include the Orange

Sub & Blue Sub

– Hide where?• Transiting to the area of operations• Operating off the coast of a hostile country

– Hide why?• To provide air operations

– Hide when?• For duration of transit and of air operations—

and return transit


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Sub on CV

Sub on Sub

Helo on Sub

Sub on Sub

R ? ? ? ?

V ? ? ? ?

T ? ? ? ?

A ? ? ? ?

P = 1 – e-2RVT/A


Operational Context:Submarine Attack on Carrier – Some Pseudo-Facts


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321 γγγγ

++i


Operational Context:Submarine Attack on Carrier – Some Real Math

• Is his sub going to find my sub before my sub finds his carrier?

• Some math: given three exponential processes w/ rates γ1 , γ2, and γ3, the probability that event i has happens first is:

• The γ’s are the various 2RVT/A’s.


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Major Process Elements

• Hide How?– What are the major factors that impact hider

success?• Standoff distance from the shore, farther out

you are the better you can hide• Predictability of carrier movement, both during

transit and during flights operations (like to turn into the wind)

– What are the relationships between these major factors?

– Are any of these substantially greater than the others?



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Insights and Conclusions• The importance of the duality of the

searcher/hider– The notion of split personality– Each has its own behavior– However, there are links between the

searcher/hider aspects of the personality

• There is a network of interactions searchers and hiders

• Local vs. global behavior– Change of behavior based on local

interactions

• What would be the applicability of agent-based models to Hider theory?


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Sunday, May 17, 2015 Page 1 Investigating “Hider” Theory New Horizons in Search Theory 4 th Workshop