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HEADQUARTERS International Security Assistance Force/

United States Forces-Afghanistan Kabul, Afghanistan

APO AE 09356

06 August 2012

SUBJECT: Summer of 2012 Narrative in Support of the ISAF Mission Narrative

Successful counterinsurgencies are almost always won by committed indigenous populations, fighting for their own interest, on their own ground and for their own future. The future of Afghanistan rests on this same fundamental ingredient – committed Afghans who seek security, peace and prosperity. One thing about Afghanistan is certain, there is no shortage of this critical element and the people of Afghanistan back the side that supports their goals. In 2012 the Afghan people and communities are now led by their own government and represented by their own Security Forces. For the first time, these national forces are increasingly operating independently and acting collaboratively to secure Afghanistan’s future. This

progress is significant. While the Coalition continues to play a key role, it is increasingly a supporting one. The Afghan people, backed by the 50 nations of ISAF and the International Community, are postured to thwart challenges from insurgent groups or other actors who might seek to undermine the progress and sovereignty of Afghanistan. ISAF has four goals. The work is incomplete, but together with the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GIRoA) we are making steady progress toward each one. The Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) is taking the security lead and gaining momentum as they Pressure the Insurgency, thus paving the road to Transition through ongoing Unity of Effort with Coalition forces and the International Community. Emerging from the darkness of the past, Afghanistan’s future is coming into focus. 1. ANSF to the Fore: Today, the insurgency is confronted by a rapidly transforming ANSF. Thanks to a significant increase in the size of the ANSF, Afghans now constitute two-thirds of all those in uniform defending this country. Trained, equipped and battle-hardened, the ANSF stands at 337,300 strong and will grow to 352,000 later this year. Afghan soldiers are fully committed to the fight as evidenced by the Afghan National Army’s (ANA) meeting their established targeted retention rates for seven of the last twelve months. The Afghan National Police’s (ANP) twelve-month attrition average is 1.3 percent, just 0.1 percent below the desired objective of 1.4 percent. The ANA conventional and special operations forces have grown by 22 percent since May 2011. Similarly, the ANP has increased by 12 percent. The insurgency faces an Afghan Army consisting of six combat Corps equipped with more than 5,200 up-armored vehicles; an emergent logistical capability with 27,400 other combat and combat support vehicles; half a million pieces of weaponry, including more than 1,500 indirect-fire weapons; 170,000 pieces of communications equipment; 9,000 night vision devices;

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and a newly established and growing counter-IED capability consisting of 21 Route Clearance Company units with 393 mine rollers. The operational tempo has also increased. Partnered operations during the period of January to July increased by 28 percent compared to the same period in 2011. The ANSF is now leading almost half of all partnered operations, compared to 19 percent in May 2011.1 We have seen a dramatic increase in the ANSF’s ability to take the fight to the insurgency. The Afghan Army, Special Operations Forces, National Police, Local Police, and Border Police pursue, fight and detain insurgents every day with increasing success. The face of the defenders of Afghanistan is changing from Coalition troops to committed Afghan forces who desire to rid their country of terrorist elements that would destroy it. In short, the ANA is becoming more mobile, more practiced, and more professional daily. The insurgents are now predominantly facing and fighting Afghans who are fighting on their own ground for their own future.

Continuing to broaden its capabilities, the ANSF has developed a significant and growing capability in its Special Forces and recently activated the first ever division-sized ANA Special Operations Command (ANASOC) comprised of more than 10,000 soldiers. ANASOC has nine battalion-sized formations – kandaks – of commandos comprising 72 Special Forces A-Teams and includes newly formed special aviation and elite mobile strike units. Afghan Special Operations Forces plan, conduct and lead special

operations missions daily, to include night operations. Since March, Coalition and Afghan special operations units have eliminated more than 200 insurgents and detained more than 1,000 fighters. In a recent 24-hour period in just one regional command area, 27 of 35 Special Operations Force (SOF) operations were ANSF-led. The ANSF presence is felt in every district of Afghanistan. These forces include the ANP and the Afghan Local Police (ALP). Leading the efforts in disrupting insurgent attacks, supply movements, bomb making and intimidation, the ANP and ALP constrain insurgent freedom of movement and disrupt insurgent operations. The insurgents are particularly alarmed by the ALP, whose legitimacy and local intelligence networks make it exceedingly difficult for the insurgency to maintain or establish a foothold in local communities. The ALP’s mastery of the human terrain hampers the insurgent’s ability to conduct operations. The insurgents must also face the dilemma caused by attacking the ALP, as their attacks are seen by the population as attacks on the local tribes since the GIRoA formed ALP units are made up of recruits from the local community. All of these factors, combined with the ALP’s increasing effectiveness in protecting villages are pressuring the insurgency. The current strength of the ALP is approximately 15,000, with an envisioned final strength of 30,000. There have been reports of ALP misconduct, and measures are being taken to correct these issues. Stringent screening standards within the ANSF now apply to all ALP recruits, to include biometric scanning and oversight by the District Chiefs of Police. The police forces’ training and daily interaction in the provinces and districts across the country not only position them to assist the ANA in the counterinsurgency fight, but also to introduce law enforcement and justice in a peaceful and sovereign Afghanistan.

1 Afghan led operations are operations that are commanded, controlled, planned and executed

by the ANSF and are conducted with the majority of the force being ANSF (50 percent or greater).

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The signing of the 9 March 2012 Detention Memorandum of Understanding was an unprecedented commitment by Afghanistan and the U.S. to ensure the humane care, custody and control of detainees removed from the battlefield. The ANSF is taking the lead in this effort as the Detentions Operations Command Tashkiel is sourced with additional MP battalions and ANA guard force kandaks across multiple detention centers. Facilities and the majority of the 9 March 2012 detainee population have been transferred to the ANA. In order to maintain future international support, GIRoA will need to demonstrate continued professional and transparent treatment of detainees.

A further force multiplier for the forward-moving ANSF is the maturing Afghan Air Force (AAF). The AAF is at a critical point in its development, and while sustainment and corruption allegations remain issues at this early juncture, this evolving force will play an expanding role in bringing the fight to the insurgents. With a mixture of 98 fixed and rotary-wing aircraft, the AAF is diligently training pilots, flight crews and maintenance personnel as they move toward an increasingly professional operational capability by 2016. This new

air force will add another dimension to the ANSF combined arms team, increasing its ability and lethality. Not only are the insurgents facing a better trained and equipped ANSF, they are facing an ANSF that is growing more ethnically representative, gender-integrated, and literate. The ANSF is comprised of personnel representing all ethnic groups in Afghanistan, and there are over 1,750 women serving in positions ranging from Officers and Non-Commissioned Officers (NCO) to patrolmen and soldiers. All soldiers and police are provided a basic level of literacy training (level 1), which is mandatory for 100 percent of ANSF personnel. More than 156,900 ANSF personnel have graduated literacy training and another 117,000 are currently enrolled. Significant numbers go on to successfully complete level two and three literacy training. Reinforcing the continued professionalization of the force, leader development has improved in terms of quality and quantity of educated, empowered officers and non-commissioned officers. The ANSF has cultivated a substantial training and education base. Currently, the combined total of ANA and ANP training instructors who are certified to international standards exceeds 4,000. Afghan instructors now deliver up to 90 percent of all training to ANA and ANP recruits, soldiers, policemen and NCO’s. Just as in coalition military training schools, these instructors form the foundation for producing the ANSF of the future. As ANSF experience grows and is passed on to future soldiers and policemen, the insurgents will face a better trained and better educated force capable of understanding and defeating their tactics and operations. The ANSF officers, non-commissioned officers, soldiers and policemen are overcoming great challenges to build credible institutions that can bring peace and stability to their country. While some challenges persist, such as corruption and professional ethics, their presence is seen on the battlefield and in their communities and villages in a very positive light by the people. They know that being in the lead means bearing the brunt of the fight, and many have already made the ultimate sacrifice. As ANSF operations to rid the country of insurgents continue, so too will their casualties, but their resolve remains firm. The ANSF is proving itself a worthy guardian of, and are an admired institution symbolizing, national unity.

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2. Pressure the Insurgency Across the country, the ANSF is persistently going after insurgent key leaders and facilitators to destroy their networks. The Afghan National Police/Afghan Border Police are leading operations in border areas in the Southeast, disrupting movement of insurgent key leaders, supplies, and other lethal aid destined to fuel the fighting season. In May 2011, there was an average of 60 offensive operations a day, and by June of this year that number doubled. The sustained force being applied to disrupt, degrade, and destroy those who threaten Afghanistan’s future has an Afghan face. Similarly, cross-border cooperation with Pakistan is increasing to further challenge insurgent sanctuaries. The growing footprint of the ANSF in terms of size, operations and capabilities makes it an increasing focus for insurgent attacks designed to hinder recruitment, retention and resolve. The insurgents likely recognize the ANSF as the enduring threat to their survival. This fighting season will continue to see attacks against the military and civilians, increased casualties, and insurgent propaganda inflating losses inflicted on the ANSF and Coalition. It is important to contextualize

ongoing insurgent violence. Insurgent-Initiated Attacks (IIAs) for the first seven months of this year remain 3 percent lower than the same corresponding period last year. In the last 12 weeks, IIAs have increased by 9 percent. However, they remain similar to 2011 levels. Since May, Afghanistan has been experiencing the seasonal rise in attacks that usually starts after the poppy harvest. What may seem troubling at first glance looks different when considered in a more

comprehensive context. In 2012, Afghanistan experienced a long and harsh winter. Throughout this period, ANSF and ISAF aggressively pursued the insurgents. The result has been fewer insurgent attacks in the first few months of this year compared to the early post-winter months of 2011. Furthermore, the lower than expected 2012 poppy harvest started later and ended approximately two weeks earlier, in particular in the southern part of Afghanistan. Nevertheless, the relative attack patterns for the post-poppy period remain consistent with previous years. The current increasing attack trends are primarily driven by ANSF and ISAF operations in southern Afghanistan – consequently, most IIAs are reactive in nature. This continued pressure, in particular in the south and southwest of the country where the majority of the fighting is taking place, pushed the insurgents away from some of the major populated areas, another indication of increasing success in putting them on the defensive. In addition, insurgent attacks are highly localized. Afghanistan has a population of approximately 27 million people in 405 districts. However, the majority of Afghans are practically unaffected by insurgent attacks. Eighty percent of IIAs occur where only 20 percent of the population lives and 45 percent of the attacks occur in 10 districts with only 3 percent of the population. In other words, 80 percent of the Afghan population does not directly experience the violence associated with the insurgency. Even more striking, Nahr-e Saraj in Helmand Province (the district with the most insurgency-initiated attacks in all of Afghanistan) accounted for 11 percent of the total IIAs for the first seven months of this year, but contains less than 0.5 percent of the population. Conversely, Regional Commands West, North and Capital combined account for 57 percent of the Afghan population, but experienced less than 8 percent of all IIAs in the country. The numbers indicate that the ANSF is denying the insurgency access to large segments of the population and denying freedom of movement in sparsely populated areas. The insurgents are under immense pressure from all quarters. ANSF efforts have disrupted the insurgency’s calculations, causing insurgents to resort to desperate and criminal attacks against innocent civilians at religious gatherings, in markets, hotels, and against women and children. The insurgents’ brutality is the cause of nearly 87 percent of total civilian casualties – more than 1,400 killed or wounded this year alone. Results of

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a recent ISAF national survey confirmed that insurgent brutality is widely acknowledged and condemned by the Afghan population, who desire peace and stability. The insurgency’s violence against innocents and other policies are creating a discontent among the population. In places like Andar District in Ghazni Province and the Kamdesh District of Nuristan Province, locals, some of whom are former insurgents and even students, are taking up arms and fighting back to reclaim their villages.

The mounting pressure is causing the insurgency to erode from the bottom up. Over 5,000 fighters have already laid down their arms and rejoined civil society through the Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program (APRP) with many more waiting to do the same. Moreover, several hundred low-level fighters have informally left the battlefield of their own accord. The disillusioned fighters are leaving for many

reasons, one of which is resentment in seeing themselves and their friends dying while their leadership resides safely across the border in neighboring countries. Offering a path to rejoin society as a citizen of Afghanistan, GIRoA’s APRP allows the fighter to join the peace process and help build the country. Reintegration is a chance to be part of the future of Afghanistan; conversely, continuing the fight equals hardship, detention or death. During the Chicago Summit, NATO committed to a mission of training, advising and assisting the ANSF through 2014 and beyond, thus sending the message to the insurgents that they cannot simply wait us out. The insurgents can count on constant, consistent, growing pressure from the ANSF as they calculate the cost of continuing their fight. 3. Transition

Transition is a reality. The Transition roadmap as signed by Heads of State and GIRoA in Lisbon 2010 is being operationalized. The ISAF campaign is on track with 3 of 5 tranche areas in transition. Today, 260 of 405 districts and municipalities throughout the country and 75 percent of the population are being protected by a predominantly Afghan force; this includes every capital in all 34 provinces. The success of Transition rests with the ANSF’s increasing presence and capability. Insurgent

Initiated Attacks (IIA) in Tranche areas 1, 2, and 3 have decreased approximately 16 percent, 15 percent, and 15 percent, respectively, in the first six months of this year compared to the same period last year. Although the challenges of the future remain many, such as the ability to improve basic services to the people, transition now has a momentum of its own. Afghan leaders, regions, communities, and organizations are increasingly eager to lead and control their own destiny. The ANSF growth and presence are creating the conditions for the introduction of ISAF’s Security Force Assistance (SFA) concept, a key element of both supporting the campaign and the process of Transition. SFA is the path to campaign success and Afghan independence by employing small teams of ISAF advisors to train, advise, and assist ANSF units. Currently, there are nearly 400 SFA teams in theatre, and it is projected that there will be over 460 teams by the end of the year. Our determination remains unchanged, and with the future announcement of the fourth and fifth Tranche areas, the ANSF will take over security across all of Afghanistan and the ISAF forces will move firmly into a supporting role. Afghans securing Afghans is a reality. After decades of conflict, improving security conditions and an increasingly isolated insurgency are allowing Afghans to begin returning to a stabilized environment. Five million refugees and displaced persons have returned to Afghanistan since 2002, and with more than 52,000 returning

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mid-year, there has already been an increase of 13 percent this year compared to last year. Although this is a positive sign, it presents a tremendous challenge to a resource-limited GIRoA that already struggles to provide for its citizens. The dialogue is now turning to the Decade of Transformation, which looks beyond 2014 with a focus on enabling governance, socio-economic development and long-term partnerships. The International Community is moving in the direction of bilateral partnerships to create security cooperation agreements with a sovereign Afghanistan, secured by Afghan forces. Emerging indicators are beginning to hint at potential movement associated with Transition. The World Bank’s 2012 report entitled Afghanistan: From Transition to Transformation states: “Afghanistan’s growth is projected at an average annual rate of 4.9 percent and has the potential to increase to 6.7 percent depending on an appropriate enabling environment.” Currently, economic opportunity, access to education, and public services are scarce, but have the potential to grow. There are more children in school than ever before in Afghanistan’s recent history. The demand for education continues to exceed expectations. More than eight million children attend 15,000 schools, over eight times the number than under the Taliban. The number of girls in school (37%) is remarkable compared to the Taliban era. There are 175,000 teachers (30% female). Higher education has expanded and enrollment increases every year. As educational access grows, so too does the possibility for the next generation of Afghans to play a role in building their county’s future. GIRoA is providing independent and growing leadership, demonstrating the benefits of the government to its people by providing public services and protection. According to a fall 2011 survey by The Asia Foundation, Afghan perceptions of the performance of the government have been fairly stable in the last two years – with two-thirds to three quarters of people saying that they think the government is doing a good job. ISAF survey results show a positive trend in the perceptions of Afghans. Millions of people are now seeing opportunities that were not present just a few years ago. Following Bonn, Chicago, and Tokyo, the commitment of the International Community to Afghanistan is unquestionable. The international community stands with the noble people of Afghanistan now and into Afghanistan’s Decade of Transformation – this great country will not be abandoned. 4. The Unity of Effort

The dynamic of this fighting season has changed in many ways for the insurgents, to include an evolving political context. In Chicago, leaders from more than 50 nations attended the 2012 NATO Summit and sent three unmistakable messages: they are committed to the future of the Afghan people beyond 2014, they will not abandon Afghanistan, and the Taliban cannot wait them out. The Summit declared:

By the end of 2014, when the Afghan Authorities will have full security responsibility, the NATO-led combat mission will end. We will, however, continue to provide strong and long-term political and practical support through [the NATO] Enduring Partnership with Afghanistan. NATO is ready to work towards establishing, at the request of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, a new post-2014 mission of a different nature in Afghanistan, to train, advise, and assist the ANSF, including the Afghan Special Operation Forces.

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After 34 years of conflict, governance in Afghanistan is still nascent, but this has started to change with Transition as GIRoA assumes more and more responsibility for various aspects of sovereignty. GIRoA has made substantial progress in many fields of development, including education, health, roads, electricity, and telecommunication. Building on the long-held aspiration of the Afghan people, Afghanistan has conducted four national level elections and laid the foundations of a democratic system of governance, including the promulgation of its new Constitution, enshrining a commitment to pluralism and human rights, and in particular the equal rights of women. A sign of progress is the 16,000-strong civil servant workforce created to effectively deliver newly developed government services, but rebuilding infrastructure takes time. Many Afghans are gaining access to electricity for the first time in decades. The Ministry of Energy and Water estimates that about 30 percent of Afghans have access to electricity and the situation is improving in some of the major urban population centers. Other infrastructure improvements include roads that link the country together. Almost 10,000 km of roads have been graded and paved, a considerable improvement

from a decade ago. Other improvements to the transportation system have shortened travel time for both commerce and people transiting Afghanistan. Another critical service being restored is water and sanitation. Currently, only 27 percent of Afghans have access to safe drinking water and 5 percent to adequate sanitation, but progress is being made. Afghanistan has also cultivated a thriving and outspoken media represented by more than 75 television stations and more than

175 radio stations, all but two privately owned. In the area of health care, approximately 85 percent of the population lives in districts where basic health services are delivered. About 57 percent of the population lives within one hour’s walking distance from a public health facility and infant and under-5 mortality in 2010 has declined to 77 and 97 per 1,000 live births respectively, from 111 and 161 per 1,000 live births in 2008. These improvements in public services are encouraging; yet GIRoA still faces many challenges.2

GIRoA must develop revenue sources to fund essential services and connect to provincial and local governments in order to respond to both national and local priorities. To retain the faith of the international donor community, GIRoA must attack its own internal challenges including corruption, by removing and prosecuting corrupt officials and instituting transparency and accountability in all processes of government. The blueprint for the strongest possible collaboration among the Afghan government and people, the International

Community, Afghanistan’s neighbors, the private sector, and civil society depends on mutual accountability, which all sides have responsibilities to uphold. The International Community and the Afghan people have very clear expectations that the GIRoA must act now to initiate governmental reform, embrace the rule of law including human rights, and seek to eliminate corruption. The responsibility for Afghanistan’s future rests squarely where it belongs—with the Afghan people themselves. They alone can make the hard right choices and the reforms needed to foster peace and stability, unity and progress. 6. Conclusion This is a strategic moment in the ISAF and Afghan campaign. ANSF to the Fore is gaining momentum as they lead and engage in operations across the country. This movement to the fore

2 The World Bank, Afghanistan Country Overview 2012, May 2012 (http://go.worldbank.org/S4219L33P0)

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has Afghans fighting insurgents to secure the future of Afghanistan. The true battle has begun—one that will decide the fate of GIRoA, the ANSF, and the people of Afghanistan. A peaceful, stable, prosperous, and sovereign nation hangs in the balance, and the ANSF is tipping the scales against the insurgents who would have Afghanistan slip back into what the people of Afghanistan call the “darkness.” Trained, equipped, and increasingly leading the fight, the ANSF with its coalition partners are applying constant pressure on the insurgency. As the ANSF moves into the lead across the country, cracks are beginning to appear in the insurgency. Some fighters are choosing to reintegrate with their communities and families, others are spending more energy on self-preservation than on fighting as they search for leaders to replace those who have been killed or detained, and still others are simply walking away from the battlefield. The ANSF is proving its resiliency in pursuing the insurgency. ANSF recruiting remains healthy, retention is meeting or exceeding goals, and even in the face of increased casualties, Afghanistan’s volunteer soldiers and policemen are firmly staying in the fight. The increase in ANSF troops throughout the nation sends a clear message to the insurgents and the Afghan people about GIRoA’s capability to secure the population. The ANSF is an emerging force, which is making significant progress towards the goal of enduring institutions, sustainable recruiting, and professional leaders, thus setting the conditions for Transition. With transition under way, ISAF’s mission is changing from providing security to advising and assisting the ANSF. Real progress toward securing a brighter future for the people of Afghanistan is happening, progress that the President of Afghanistan calls “the emergence of Afghan sovereignty.” The results of the Lisbon, Bonn, Chicago and Tokyo Conferences demonstrate the International Community’s unity of effort and long-term commitment to the people of Afghanistan. There are still many challenges ahead, and the road beyond 2014 may be bumpy, but Afghanistan will not be travelling it alone.