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Option C: Regression Analysis. Summary of NDM Data Sample Analysis. Contents. Regression Analysis per LDZ In-Sample Results Out-of-Sample Model fit CWV Contribution Conclusion. Regression Analysis. Regression Model as follows: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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© British Gas Trading Limited 2011
Summary of NDM Data Sample Analysis
Option C: Regression Analysis
© British Gas Trading Limited 2011
Contents
• Regression Analysis per LDZ
• In-Sample Results
• Out-of-Sample Model fit
• CWV Contribution
• Conclusion
© British Gas Trading Limited 2011
Regression Analysis
• Regression Model as follows:
• Dummy variables (Bank Holidays, Easter, Christmas and so forth).
• Weather variables introduced as per DESC meeting on 4th April (e.g. Temperature, Global Radiation, Rainfall and so forth).
• Time intervals used based on office hours and domestic habits.
• Slot 1 from 5am to 8am
• Slot 2 from 9am to 4pm
• Slot 3 from 5pm to 10pm
• Slot 4 from 11pm to 4am
© British Gas Trading Limited 2011
Regression Analysis
• Data normalised by AQ because of erratic level changes observed year on year. Yearly cut-off date is of 1st April due to time span of original files and data deletion process
• Binary permutation of variables used to seek out best regression fit with p≤5% significance level.
© British Gas Trading Limited 2011
Regression Analysis Models used
• A benchmark model was used for each LDZ as the following:
Normalised Consumption = Intercept + a0 * CWV
• Using Binary permutations, a most optimised linear regression model (based on best R2 fit) is chosen. The linear regression is of the form:
Normalised Consumption = Intercept + a0 * CWV + a1 * Temperature + a2* Windspeed +
a3* Solar Radiation + …
• In-Sample data runs from April 2008 to March 2011 whereas Out-of-Sample data spans from April 2011 to March 2012.
• These models were applied to End-User Category 1 only (EUC1).
© British Gas Trading Limited 2011
Regression Analysis Parameters (1 of 2)
Parameters EA EM NE NO NW SC SE SW WM WSIntercept 0.006914 0.006223 0.005724 0.005377 0.006518 0.005753 0.007031 0.007086 0.006198 0.006572
CWV -0.00039 -0.00038 -0.00032 -0.00033 -0.00029 -0.00033 -0.0004 -0.00044 -0.00039 -0.00035mean_Temp -0.00009 0.00011 0.000075 -0.00002 -0.00014 0.000019 -0.00006 0.000024 0.00000351 -0.00005
mean_Windspeed 0.000025 0.000015 0.00006 mean_WindDirection -7.55E-07 -1.03E-06 -7.45E-07 -2.85E-07
mean_Humidity -1.16E-07 0.00000266 0.000012 0.00000427 0.00000174 mean_Global_Radiation -5.13E-07 -2.52E-07 -1.15E-06 4.23E-07 6.97E-07
mean_Rainfall 0.00024 0.000178 0.000179 0.000476 0.000145 mean_Temp_lag1 -0.00001 -8.53E-06 -0.00001 -0.00002 -8.35E-06 -8.83E-06 0.0000034
mean_Windspeed_lag1 0.000022 0.000026 0.000014 0.000041 0.00003 0.000012 0.000014 mean_WindDirection_lag1 4.623E-07 3.49E-07 3.48E-07
mean_Humidity_lag1 -7.05E-07 -2.05E-06 -2.06E-06 -1.87E-06 mean_Global_Radiation_lag1 1.376E-07 -1.47E-07 6.75E-08
mean_Rainfall_lag1 0.000113 -0.00007 0.000096 WeekEnd -0.00005 -0.00014 0.000094 0.000073 0.000071 Mon_Fri -0.00005 -0.00005 0.00000264
WeekEnd_from__Friday 0.000041 Bank__Hols 0.000064 School_Hols 0.000066 0.00007 0.00012 -2.35E-06 Mon_Thurs -0.00009 -0.00013 -0.00003
Slot1_Windspeed Slot1_Rainfall -0.0001 -0.00006
© British Gas Trading Limited 2011
Regression Analysis Parameters ( of 2)
Parameters EA EM NE NO NW SC SE SW WM WS Slot1_GlobalRadiation 2.293E-07 3.061E-07 0.00000351
Slot1_Temp 0.000032 -0.00005 -0.00004 0.000021 Slot1_WindDirection -3.68E-07 2.86E-07
Slot1_Humidity -3.08E-06 Slot2_Windspeed 9.999E-06 -0.00003
Slot2_Rainfall 0.000033 Slot2_GlobalRadiation -3.51E-08 -2.45E-07 -4.49E-07
Slot2_Temp -0.00004 -0.00002 0.000059 -0.00003 Slot2_WindDirection 5.639E-07 3.091E-07 -4.25E-07
Slot2_Humidity 3.617E-06 Slot3_Temp 0.000053 0.000028 0.000029 0.000013 0.000043 0.000022
Slot3_Windspeed -7.84E-06 Slot3_GlobalRadiation 1.357E-08 2.51E-07
Slot3_Rainfall -0.00009 0.000061 Slot3_WindDirection 4.538E-07
Slot3_Humidity 3.044E-06 Slot4_Temp 0.000015 0.000013 0.000021
Slot4_WindDirection 3.71E-07 Slot4_Humidity -1.75E-06 -5.51E-06 -2.28E-06
Slot4_GlobalRadiation Slot4_Windspeed
Slot4_Rainfall 0.000031 0.000072
© British Gas Trading Limited 2011
Conclusion
• Improvements against Benchmark Results are made using weather and/or calendar effects on top of CWV.
• The significance, or non-significance, level of Weekend/Weekday/Bank Holiday is very much LDZ-specific.
• Global Radiation is a significant variable in all LDZ’s.
• Time Intervals (i.e., Slot 1 to 4) and Monday-to-Thursday dummy variable help explain customer behaviour in some LDZ’s.
• Relative Humidity stands out in almost every LDZ’s.
• CWV heavily contributes in the optimised models obtained.
• No cross-effects utilised in Regression models.
• LDZ SO and NT need further investigations