Summary of MAP D-PHASE Strategy and Requirements

MAP D-PHASE / Olympics Project Meeting6 February 2006

Prepared by: Ron McTaggart-Cowan

Outline

● Summary of 1st MAP D-PHASE Science Meeting (November 2006, Vienna, Austria)

● Deliverables for MAP D-PHASE– Test Period (Feb 2007)– DOP (1 June - 30 November 2007)

● Status of EC contribution to MAP D-PHASE● Relationship to Olympics Project● Status of Olympics Project

Summary of MAP D-PHASE

● MAP Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the alpine region

● A Forecast Demonstration Project of the WWRP

● Organized by MeteoSwiss with collaboration from many European centers and universities

● Coordinates with COPS IOP● Overlap with E-TReC 2007

MAP D-PHASE

Summary of MAP D-PHASE

MAP D-PHASE and COPS output domains for 2007 DOP

MAP D-PHASE

Summary of MAP D-PHASE

● Both deterministic and low/high resolution ensembles will be run by various centers:– Ensembles: MOGREPS (UKMet), INM Multi-

model (Spain), COSMO-LEPS (ECMWF), MICRO-PEPS (DWD)

– Deteministic: GEM (Canada), MOLOCH (Italy), AROME (France), MM5 (Universities)

● Numerous hydrological models will be run either coupled or in offline mode

MAP D-PHASE

Summary of MAP D-PHASE

● Preliminary verification strategies:– (real time) subjective evaluation by MAP D-

PHASE forecasters from MeteoSwiss– (offline) from data archive by researchers in

Austria using the Vienna enhanced resolution analysis (VERA) technique

● The key predictors will be related to flood forecasting, so the focus in on QPF

MAP D-PHASE

Deliverables MAP D-PHASE(Test Period, 26 Feb – 2 March 2007)

● High resolution models (mesh size 1-3 km)run between 1 and 4 times daily

● Outputs are requested hourly for 41 surface fields, and a total of 134 upper air fields (mix of model level and pressure outputs)

● Gridded GRIB data will be interpolated to the D-PHASE domain and uploaded to the University of Hamburg

● Generated images will be sent to the Operations Centre

MAP D-PHASE

Deliverables MAP D-PHASE(DOP, 1 June – 30 November 2007)

● In addition to the D-PHASE domain fields, all 41 surface fields, and a total of 134 upper air fields are requested at 15 minute intervals for the COPS domain from June to August

● Gridded GRIB data will be interpolated to the D-PHASE and COPS domains and uploaded to the University of Hamburg

● Generated images will be sent to the Operations Centre

MAP D-PHASE

Status of EC Contribution

● Intention for twice-daily nested (10, 2.5 km) runs over the Test Period and DOP have been presented to the MAP collaborators

● Preliminary domains have been constructed● Work has begun on postprocessing:

– interpolation to final grids and GRIB generation– GrADS image generation

● No automation or operational consideration has been made

MAP D-PHASE

Status of EC ContributionT

imeline for tasks involved w

ith completing

EC

contribution to MA

P D

-PH

AS

E project.

Green – started; Y

ellow – in planning stage;

Red – not planned

MAP D-PHASE

Status of EC Contribution

● Specific items that need to be discussed:– Model domain and configuration– Software requirements (GRIB, GrADS)– Storage requirements (temporary / long term)– User account / special account / operational– Host machine for real-time runs– Verification / model improvement strategy

(identify collaborators)

MAP D-PHASE

Relationship to Olympics Project

● Beijing 2008 is a WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project (B08FDP)

● Both the status of the Beijing planning and the Australian support (based on Sydney 2000 experience) were presented in Vienna

● Both are end-to-end systems focused on high impact events using deterministic and ensemble approaches

● Offers of support were received from several European centres

Olympics Project

Status of the Olympics Project

?

Olympics Project

Next Steps for Olympics Project

● Define the current status of the project● Establish a rough timeline● Meet with involved / interested parties to

finalize timeline● Begin development● [Based on the Australian experience, we

should have a basic system ready for operational testing sometime in 2008]

Olympics Project

Additional Information

● MAP D-PHASE Links:– MeteoSwiss MAP homepage

http://www.map.meteoswiss.ch/map-doc/dphase/dphase_info.htm

– EC Contribution Presentation

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/rmctc/rpn_map-dphase_v2.ppt