Reality Check for “Alternative Perspectives” on

“Futures 2.0: rethinking the discipline”

by Alex Soojung-Kim Pang

J.h Lindenger – November 1, 2012 @jlindenger | j.h@the3turesunderground.com

A re-envisioning of futures based on the shape of things today…

dealing with 21st century problems

cognitive biases

new tools for collaboration/understanding/shaping

that people (all of them) create the 3ture

understanding

harnessing

realizing

But first…

Who is Alex Soojung-Kim Pang?

look up “askpang” on the interwe6 to find all of his stuff

21st Century Challenges

Image: eddie colla – “my life” mural by *eddie, on Flickr

Everybody is an influencer

Image: the_future_rfk by indy_slug, on Flickr

wired to think about the future, but poorly

Image: youth is the future by guy fawkes, on Flickr

Expertise in forecasting can also be problematic

Image: in the future we’ll consume radiated dog – wtf?! By shira golding, on Flickr

Despite all this,

We just need to figure out how to do it better…

we MUST think about the future

Enter the tools…

Social scanning | prediction markets

For dealing with the compl8 3ture…

For evaluating methods and impact…

For shaping the co-created 3ture…

bias mitigation | ethnographic studies

Choice architecture and nudges

Social scanning

harnessing current scanning efforts

them with algorithms

aggregate, collective results to the greater community

would shi9 from a private activity to a public one

massaging

delivering

Prediction markets…

are kind of like a De/phi, but different

present some challenges for use by 3turists

are a forecasting technique based on market economics

Futurists need tools that help

Mitigate the cognitive biases

“better anticipate the 3ture by more objectively engaging with [our] own pasts”

that plague 8pertise

A quick aside for cont8t…

IARPA’s Aggregative Contigent Estimation (ACE) challenge

Ethnographic studies

:e “not about being right, but use3l” phil.ophy is hard to stomach if you

don’t really know what use3l means.

could help us understand how forecasts are used

When well-designed

Choice architectures and nudges

and reach better 3tures

present choices in ways that can

Help people make better decisions

:is paper is really one take on

The future of futures and a pretty interesting one at that

The new tools could help us get at some pretty important things for the field…

assessing the importance of accuracy

cognitive biases

the various strands of Futures

“take thinking about the 3ture out into the world, and make it more of an everyday activity”

Countering

uniting

The Challenge of Futures 2.0:

How do we help people

for themselves? Create better futures

Reframe how we think of Futures

Not production of t8ts about the 3ture…

social practices and performances creating 3tures

What is our role then?

Futurists as

compl8ity | long-term perspective | creativity Choice architects

Image: brussels – the future is in the air by infomatique, on Flickr