Summary of EPA STAR Grants related to Climate and Air Quality

Slide provided by Darrell Winner

U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development,

National Center of Environmental Research, Washington, DC

*On assignment from NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

Specific collaborations ongoing with Dr. Daniel Jacob (Harvard) and Dr. Peter Adams (Carnegie Mellon) and USEPA ORD (to be discussed in next slides)

Overview of the Climate Impact on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ) Project

Ellen J. Cooter*, Alice Gilliland*, William Benjey*, Robert Gilliam* and Jenise Swall*

U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development,National Exposure Research Laboratory, Atmospheric

Modeling Division, Research Triangle Park, NC

2004 Models-3 ConferenceOctober 18-20, 2004

*On assignment from NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

• Objective: Examine potential climate change impacts on O3 and PM using the regional scale Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model linked with global scale climate and chemical transport models

• Supports U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) research goals and synthesis products

• AMD PIs include:

Ellen Cooter Project managementClimate assessment, landscape/vegetation change

Alice GillilandCMAQ modeling and linkages with global CTMsBill Benjey Air quality emissions, future emission scenariosRobert Gilliam Regional climate model evaluation

• Collaborators include: Ruby Leung Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (MM5

RCM) Dan Loughlin EPA NRMRL (future emission scenarios) Daniel Jacob Harvard University (GISS, GEOS-CHEM)

Loretta Mickley Peter Adams Carnegie Mellon University (global CTM) Ron Neilson USDA-FS, Pacific Northwest Research Station

Climate Impacts on Regional Air Quality (CIRAQ)

CIRAQ Information Flow and Responsibilities

EPA /NRMRLEPA / NOAA(ASMD)

Agency Key

EPA / NCEADOE / PNNLUSDA /FS

CCSP

Synthesis Report 4.5

Air Quality Scenarios

CCSP

Base Program

3. Atmospheric Composition

CCSPSynthesis Report 4.6

Socioeconomic Impacts ofClimate Variability

Vegetation Change

Anthropogenic Emissions

MM5/RCM Meteorology(GCM Downscaling)

Biogenic emissionsAir Quality

(Ozone and PM)

GCM and GCTM

(Harvard, Carnegie Mellon via STAR)

CIRAQ Project Timeline

• FY03-05 Understanding the global to regional climate linkage to

support regional scale air quality simulations

• FY04-07Understanding the impact of climate change on regional

air quality (CIRAQ Phase 1)

- Develop 5-yr current and future (fixed technology and landuse) emissions scenarios

- Perform 5-yr current and future (2050) CMAQ simulations

• FY06-09 Understanding the impact of climate and emissions

changes on regional air quality (CIRAQ Phase 2)

Downscaled Meteorology(linking global and regional scale climate)

• GCM (Harvard University) GISS version II’ 6hrly output saved for 10 present-day and 10 future

years. Used as boundary and initial conditions to MM5

• Downscaling with MM5 (DOE/PNNL) MM5 run in regional climate mode

• 23 layers, MRF planetary boundary layer parameterization, Grell cumulus cloud parameterization, RRTM radiation scheme and mixed phase microphysics

36km x36km horizontal resolution spanning continental US, northern Mexico and southern Canada

RCM Evaluation/AnalysisThe Goal:To understand climatological biases that could impact CMAQ model performance

The Challenge:RCM scenarios characterize time periods under representative climatological conditions and will not necessarily reproduce day-to-day and exact year-to-year

observations.

The Solution:Base evaluation on distributions of model output means, extremes and variability on both spatial and temporal scales.

MM5/RCMObs

MM5/RCM/MCIP EvaluationTime Series Analysis

(Leads, Gilliland and Swall)

• Meteorological conditions include annual, diurnal, and interannual cycles

• Use time series analysis techniques (e.g., filtering techniques, Fourier analysis, etc.) to separate these time scale variations in the data

• Amplitude of these cycles and the extent of variability can be compared for observational data and model output

• Understanding these cyclical patterns allows for better detection of climate change signals and investigation of these changes

MM5/RCM/MCIP EvaluationSpatial Analysis

(Lead, Cooter)

Goal: Develop methods to compare spatial patterns of gridded

meteorological (or other) means and extremes across datasets.

Method:• Cluster analysis

– Wards (means)– Average linkage and k-means (extremes)

Analysis:• Visual – difference mappings• Quantitative – frequency analysis

Developed and tested using 10 years of NCEP and NCEP/AMIP reanalysis data

Question:

Do average summer season 700mb transport patterns look similar?

NCEP Reanalysis R-1

(black arrows)

NCEP/AMIP Reanalysis R-2

(red arrows)

(R2 – R1)

CMAQ Air Quality Simulations(Lead, Gilliland)

Plan

• O3, PM2.5, PM10, sulfate and nitrate deposition, …

• U.S. continental domain, 36 km horizontal resolution

• Linkages to global scale chemical transport simulations through boundary conditions Two global CTMs (Harvard and Carnegie-Mellon – EPA STAR program) Both driven by GISS II’ GCM

Challenge• Global CTM chemical mechanism matched to SAPRC (AMD, Univ. of

Houston)• Temporal and spatial scale issues (Univ. of Houston)

CMAQ simulations are expected to begin during FY05

Analysis of Air Quality Simulations: EOF Analysis

• Another link to the EPA STAR program• Harvard and CIRAQ collaborations include

an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of spatial variability in ozone and PM2.5 predictions

• Refers back to the climatological evaluation approach needed

• Both global CTM and CMAQ results will be included in the analysis

Summary• Several ‘arms’ to the ORD study of climate impact on

air quality STAR program is very extensive (albeit briefly described here) NERL CIRAQ project fosters broad collaborations, including

several STAR (e.g., Hogrefe, Jacob, Adams, Fu) recipients and ICAP investigators (e.g., Jang, Byun, Jacob, Fu)

• Through these partnerships, a broader study of climate and air quality interactions can be attained

• Future goals include even more integrated project goals between ORD and OAQPS (discussions ongoing) Satellite data for intercontinental transport Integration of aerosol feedbacks into photolysis rates More…

DisclaimerPortions of the research presented here were

performed under the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S.

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement number

DW13921548.

Although this work was reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approved for publication, it may not necessarily reflect official Agency policy.