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SUMMARY MTP

LECTURE 1 INTRODUCTION CURRENT ISSUES IN THE NL

Lecture (Erik Verhoeven)

Relevant trends in society

Urbanization

Sustainability, energy & climate risis

Digitization and technological innovation

Uncertainty & growth

Self-organization (shift towards top-down)

Aging and changing in attitudes and behaviour

Trends in mobility and land use

Growing car use (however, this trend is uncertain)

Mobility behaviour and needs

Technological developments

Urbanization patterns (suburbanisation, reurbanisation, shrinkage)

Multimodal transport

Challanges in transport planning

Integrated thinking (networks, LUT)

Sustainability becomes leading

Area wide approach (regional network development)

Governance shifts towards alliances, user orientation and civil participation

Room for innovation in technology

Adaptive planning (Lindblom)

New focus on vitality and liveability of urban areas

Wilson

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1.Meyer & Miller H1 + H2

Chapter 1 The definiton of transport planning

1. Definted as a process 2. Should assess opportunities and limitations of the future 3. Should include short and long-range perspectives 4. Should include goals, objectives and performance measures. Performance measures are

important because they can provide indications of the effectiveness of transportation planing and subsequent program implementation.

5. Most important decisions makers: the elected and appointed government officials.

A multimodal perspective on transport planning = the process of defining problems, identifying alternatives, evaluating potential solutions and selecting preferred actions that meet community goals in a manner that includes all feasible transport modes. There is no single solution to the transportation problem.

1. Supply management =managaing the transportation system by adding new facilities or making operational changes to improve the system perfomance = hardware

2. Demand management = any action or set of actions intented to influence the intensity, timing and spatial distribution of transportation demand for the purpose of reducing the impact of traffic or enhancign mobility options.

3. Land use management =deciding for what use a certain piece of land is?

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A changing society and its impact on urban transportation planning

Population characteristics

The metropolitan economy (shift to services, globalization, increased privatization)

Societal concerns and issues (global warming, global health)

Transportaion legislation (certain targets, EU standards)

The technology of planning (GIS, big data)

Chaper 2 Transportation planning and decision making

4 steps in decision making progress

1. Problem identification and/or definition: vb vroeger probleem van congestie oplossing: meer snelwegen bouwen, bleek het probleem niet op te lossen. Dus: probleemdefinitie is belangrijk

2. Debate and choice: decision is a choice among feasible alternatives (bargaining, incremental adjusment)

3. Implementation 4. Evaluation and feedback:

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2. Bertolini Integrating mobility and urban development agendas dillema: how to rejoin the essential role or mobility in enhancing cities welfare and well-being with the lack of sustainability of present urban mobility practices?

Urban planning still seems to see mobility as just one among many particular concerns rather than a central, structuring perspective. Mobile society: more options paradox: while mobility brings feedom it also becomes a necessity. Without mobility we cannot get access to basic services and take part in soial and econonomic life. We have to move. - on the one hand mobility has become an essential condition for social emancipation - on the other hand: negative effects of mobility has become more obvious mobility appears to have become the victim of its own success telecommunication does not signifantly reduce mobility necessity but it increases physical mobility city has changed urbs (physical buildings) ad civitas (people and activities) are disconnected. It is a city where the traditional urban centers appear to be losing their dominant role and where new centers seem to be appearing.

Shifts in methods

1. Predict and provide: (60s & 70s): predicting the mobility growth, followed by the building of infrastructure to accommodate that growth

2. Predict and prevent (80s & 90s): predicted mobility demand in fact had to be avoided primarily by discouraging car use and by promoting alternative means of transport

3. Sustainable mobility: trying to identify forms of mobility which acknowledge the need and desirability of mobility and at the same time, can reduce its negative effects

Challanges

Systemic nature of urban mobility

Finding ways of coping with the inherent uncertainty

Developing effective linkages between planning science and planning practice

Transport land use feedback cycle

is more complex: developments in the real world are determined by many more factors

the feedback cycle is also internally complex: response times vary a great deal

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Coping with uncertainty rational approach to planning: both a consensus on goals and an insight into the effectiveness of means are both desirable and feasible, meaning that unertainty must and can be reduced so that a balaced choice can be made evolutionary approach: a situation in which the uncertainy regarding goals and means cannot be redued, the focus of planning has to shift from searching for certainty to searching for rubustness and flexibility

Experiential learning between science and practice experiential learning cycle: learning is a process whicch closely combines action and thought experience and conceptualization

Key argument: social sciences have tended to ignore mobility, while transport planning and modeling has tended to ignore the social dimensions of travel

3. Wilson Assessing communicative rationality as a transportation planning paradigm

Perspective of paper: language shapes our view of the world

1.Instrumental rationality/ convential planning process (dominant method in transport planning): a process of optimizing mans according to identified goals. What we know is based on what we can observe in a neutral manner. - planning as responding to societal values, public opnition, institution and stakeholders - scientific objectivism: objective facts can be known Criticism on convential model

transporation planners are frequently not able to achieve a consensus concerning the ends of planning

there is no such thing as objectivity in data and models

political and instituitional aspects in transporation are ignored by the convential approach

2. Communicative rationality

basis for knowledege lies in the communicative methods. Habermas: communcative action is a circumstance in which the social actors participate in dialogue/action with active and critical consideration of the bases for validity of the claims that they and others make. Through this process, participants can arrive at more fully reasoned conclusions than they can if they follow a narrower model.

Verder: zie tabel lecture

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LECTURE 2 - SYSTEM ANALYSIS

Lecture Peter Pelzer

PART I

A system perspective Meyer & Miller: a system is a group of independent and interrelated components that form a complex and unified whole intended to serve some purpose through the perofrmance of its interacting parts. Its a language game: make complex social practices into simple structured plan.

Compontens

Hierarchy

Purpose

Boundary

1.Purpose

Mobility: we should ensure people can move

Accessibility: we should ensure people can get access to jobs, services, social contacts.

Implication 1: accessibility can be achieved through mobility but also through proximity (density, diversity of functions) or telecommunications. Even with high congestion, there can be a high rate of accessibility

Implication 2: Mobility focuses mainly on supply management. Accessibility opens up to all the three different management spheres (supply, demand, land use)

2.Boundary On what level should you manage the transport planning? At which sector? (all modes, one mode). What you include depends on the purpose.

3.Performance what and how to measure? Level of service? Congestion? Depends on the definition of the system purpose.

4.Feedback interdependent variables. Such as the transport land use feedback cycle!

Conclusion

Choices with respect to system characteristics are crucial for how problems and solutions are defined

There is a typical trade-off between what should be analysed and what can be analysed.

PART II Communicative rationality

1. Multiple perceptions of reality. Wilson: models are represenations of reality 2. Knowledge is socially constructed 3. Planning as a communicative and collaborative proces

Performance

Capacity

Control

feedback

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Implications for models and instruments

1. Dissapointing role in practice - System models dont work - gap between language - you have to have big data access - rigor relevance dillema: planner (rigor) wants to know practice while the user wants to know the relevance (what should I do?)

2. Effects on practice - people tend to look only at the added value not at the negative aspects. Lack of criticism

- performativity: the way in which the model steers your vision while youre not aware of it. - models can be too complex: lack of communication because someone has to explain the

model. disturbed communication 3. Group model building

Vennix: most learning takes place in the process of building the model, rather than after the model is finished.

1. Meyer & Miller Chapter 3

Transportation from a system perspective I will only explain the ones that werent mentioned in the lecture.

1.System hiearchy

Transportation is a system that is related to and is part of other systems (ecological or economic ones)

Furthermore, there arso hierarchies within the system (i.e. road classification system) 1. Principal arterials (verkeersaders) 2. Major arterials 3. Minor arterials 4. Local arterials

2. System components

Transportation system consists of various components influencing the effectiveness of the system

System users, transportation modes, networks, facilities and services, intermodal connections and stakeholders

3. System capacity

Measured as the person flow or vehicle per hour.

Transport policies aimed at reducing the use of single-occupant vehicles, have led to increasing use of person flow-rate capacity solutions.

4. System control

System is planned and maintained by different organisations and individuals from different objectives

Shift towards more private sector groups and organisations & PPP

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Transport system impacts Meyer and Miller describe three different spheres in which the transportation system has impact on.

Characteristics of Urban Travel

Trip purpose: determines the origins and destination and the length of urban trips. (work, leasure)

Temporal distribution of trip making: is the primary cause of congestion on transportation facilities at certain times of the day

Spatial distribution of trip making: directly related to the configuration of the transport system

Modal distribution of trip making: related to the trip purpose and the temporal distribution and is generally deterines by the costs of using different modes.

Transporation safety:

Tranportation costs

2.Te Brmmelstroet The role of transport-related models in urban planning

Shifts in dealing with planning isues 1) from classical predict and provide 2) focus on transport as single issue to a more holistic view of mobility in relation to wide range issues 3) from searching for means for a given goal to being one of the subjects in the goal-seeking 4) from a relatively simple insitutional context to a more complex one with multiple participating

different types of knowledge are needed: the often claimed PSS (computer-based planning support systems). This could be valuable in supporting all kinds of planning actors to make choices for sustainble future.

Learning points

Models should support the learning process of planning and others involved

Much of learning occured during the proces of making rather than using the model

Gap in language

If we want amateurs to engage too, this requires extra effort and creativity

Round-Up If we want to make use of these models we should test if they increase transparancy, if they have the expected results

Natural system impact Phsyical impacts Social and cultural impacts Terrestrial ecology aquatic ecology

Air quality, noise, vibration, water quality, hazardous wastes, storm water, energy consumption, erosion and sedimentation

Historic and archeological, displacement of people and firms, community cohesion, resource consumption, land use, infrastructure effects,

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3.Jones Developing and applying interactive visual tools

Introduction One of the primary goals of national transport policy in the UK is to reduce social exclusion through providing better access to essential goods and services. Many of the solutions have focused on quantitative measures : consequence: reduces consideration of the many other dimensions of accessibilty, in the wider concepts of peoples daily activity patterns This paper focuses on the processes used to elicit accessibility problems and to identify potential solutions.

The role of PT in accessibility planning Many previouw studies has tried to optimis the PT, few wustides have sought to engage disadvantaged communities exapt for the IRAP (Integral Rural Accessibility Planning methodology). This seeks to engage local communities in accessibility planning exercises involving a number of agencies but with an emphasis on the physical provion of facilities. 7 types of accebility related social exclusion (Wixey, Jones)

1. Spatial: location of where people live in relation to the places they need access to 2. Temporal: because they cant reach destitations at particular times 3. Personal : mobility impairment, fear 4. Financial: 5. Environmental: traffic pollution, accidents 6. Infrastructural: 7. Institutional: where groups or organisations exclude the interests of certain other groups

They evolved a case study in an area of the UK. The researchers identified 6 kinds of accessibiity problems: constraints!

1. Physical restrictions affecting respondents :

2. Phychological restrictions: fear of traffic accidents 3. Lack of information

4. Restriced availability of public transport services 5. Scheduling problem

6. High costs of bus and taxi fares

The participants learned how to cope with these different constraints trough simulating different situations

Implications for managerial practice

Public transport provision is a vital component of accessiblity

Providing adequate access to goods and services cannot in the main be achieved through the actions of public tranport operators alone.

Strenght of the research: very useful both as means of teasing out a variety of information and as a visual stimulus promoting further discussion Weakness: labour entensive and can only be applied among a relatively small number of participants.

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4.Pelzer The added value of PSS Introduction PSS = geoinformation technology based instruments that incorporate a suite of components that collectively support some specific parts of unique professional planning task. To what extent does this improve planning: added value (positive improvement of planning practice in comparison to a situation in which no PSS is applied) (from a users perspective)

Added value Definition Individual Learning about the object Learning about other stakeholders

gaining insight into the nature of the planning object gaining insight into the perspective of other stakeholders

Group Collaboration Communication Consensus Efficiency

interaction and cooperation among stakeholders sharing information and knowledge agreement on problems, solutions same of more tasks can be conducted

Outcome better informed plans or decisions

a decision or outcome is based on better information / better consideration of the information,

Conclusion The added value at the group level is perceived to be central in the perception of practitioners in particular, better communication and collaboration among stakeholders.

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LECTURE 3 - DEMAND ANALYSIS

Lecture (Veronique van Akker)

PART I

M&M : making predictions = difficult. However, without demand analysis, transportation planning could not occur Naes: not possible to make real predictions

Types of demand analysis there are two types of demand analysis 1)simplified techniques, 2)four-step model Assumptions IMPORTANT

Key characteristic of the system may be specified in terms of a set of observable variables

There is an explicit functional relationship between those observed variables and the observed behaviour of individuals

The functional structure or nature of these relationships is the same for all individuals and is constant in time

Simplified techniques

Trend analysis

mapping and undersatnding the past, extrapolating into the future

Elasticity based models

%change explanatory variable % change demand

These models are ok as long as you use it as a maybe you dont explain the underlying features.

Four-step model using the gravity model - trips between zone i and zone j - Pi an Pj: importance of the location of origin and the location of destination - dij: distance between the location of origin and the location of destination

1. Trip generation production and attraction per zone, based on population and employement

2. Trip distribution trips between zones (origin-destination O-D) matrix.

3. Modal split trips by car, PT, cycling and walking Based on utility theorie

4. Trip assignment trips on the network, level of service, congestion.

Criticism from within the modeling community

1. Doesnt explain the behaviour. Only of the common/average/aggregated. Not on individual level

2. 4 step model is not linear but cyclical. + human is no homo economicus

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Criticism from a planning perspective (Naess and Strand)

How much can we predict?

Closed systems (predictable) - no qualitative change influencing the mechanisms operating within the system - no change in the relations between the mechanisms internal to the system and those operating outside it.

Open systems (=all others) (not predictable) - context-specific configurations of a multiplicity of causal powers at work simultaneously, some of which reinforce and others which couteract eachother

Human society is an open system and is not predictable

However within the human society there are partially closed systems where some degree of prediction is possible: - there is a higher likelihood of choosing a distant destination for a trip if the road leading to this destination is uncongested motorway than if its a narrow road.

Strategic level: aim is describing overall and general effects of the transportation system and its relationships with other parts of society (open sytems use scenarios!)

Tactical level: aim is assessing significant effects of proposed projects. (open/closed sytem use theory-informed qualitative analyses)

Operational level: aim is forecasting changes in traffic flows due to relatively minor changes in

infrastructure and the operation of public transport schemes (closed system micro-simulation)

PART II

Explanation of Van Ackers article. Main point; it does try to tackle some assumptions which are made for the current demand analysis.

Implications of her model for planning

Car ownership acts as a mediating variable between the built environment and modal choices A twofold influence or urban planning policies on modal choices: - directly by measures of increasing density and accessibility - indirectly by reducing the need to own a car in the first place

Due to personal lifestyles and attitudes, the suggested urban policies will not work for all people - measures of increasing density will not work for those who dislike city living

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1. M&M Chapter 5

Demand analysis: predicting how many people, what purposes they will use the transportation system and the expectef flow of goods in a metropolitan area.

Important concepts related to demand analysis

Demand for transportation services is a derived demand: people do not travel for fun

Travel is associated with a disutilty or generalized costs

The demand for travel manifests itself as trips that can be characterized along several dimensions

Demand analysis is conducted at the aggregated level instead of the individual level.

4 broad categories: 1) simplified techniques 2)urban transport modeling system (4 step model) 3)individual choice models 4)activity based models.

2.Nss and Strand What kind of traffic forecasts are possibile?

Introduction It is inherently impossible to make exact predictions about the magnitude of the general traffic growh. Due to context-dependency of each particular planning situation, it is also hardly possible to make exact quantitative predicitons about the impact of implementing a specific infrastructure project compared to doing nothing.

Strategic models: long-term, relatively low geographical resolution.

Tactical models: cover long mediam time span

Operational models: much smaller geographical area.

The forecasts run the risk of becoming self-fulfilling prophecies, at least if they are used to legitimate construction of expanded road capacity in order to accomocate the predicted traffic growth. Disaggregated models

There is a current trend in the development of transport models towards increasingly disaggregate agent-based models, aiming to reflect an increased diversification of society, more differentiated urban lifestyles and more complex social patterns of interaction. Disadvantages:

Extremely data hungry

Slow to operate

High degree of uncertainty

This has resulted in a developer dillema : of either working with models including only a limited number of variables or including as many factors as possible in the model.

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What kind of traffic forecasts are possible?

Forecasts possible? Alternative Strategic level Not at all, forecasts are concerned with a

numbe of aspects of developments within open systems

Predictive scenarios. Aiming to envisage what is most likely to happen.

Tactical level No, can never be very adequate and precise.

Try to be instead of precisely wrong approximately right. Using theory-informed knowledge. (is not data hungry)

Operational level Not really Can make use of traditional micro-simulations.

3. Van Acker When transport geogaphy meets social psychology

Introduction Almost none of the empircal studies presents a theoretical framewrk that jutifies the relationship between daily travel behaviour and spatial, socio-economic an socio-psychological characteristics. This paper aims to develop a conceptual model of travel behaviour by using key-concepts and variables from these theories.

Why travel behaviour is part of a decision hierarchy.

Short term activity behaviour: on daily bases to which places you go.

Medium term activity behaviour: residence and workplace

Long term travel behaviour: lifestyles Lifestyles explain why homogeneous groups behave differntly: 1)perceptions, 2)attitudes

Reasoned behaviour TRA: behaviour is considered as the result of rational choices. People are considered as rational human beings. Intetions are influenced by: 1)attitutudes, 2)subjective norm, 3)perceived behavioural control

Unreasoned behaviour TRB: Individuals are not constantly conscious of their behaviour.

Interdependencies due to social environment Travel behaviour cannot be understood solely bu individual characteristics such as age, gender or income. One must also consider social network characteristics emerging from the interaction among social network members such as network composition and physical distance between network members.

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LECTURE 4 - SUPPLY ANALYSIS Lecture (Julio Soria)

demand: what causes what? supply: what are the effects of? (interventions)

They relate: (demand) how many cars imput for how other systems should respond (supply) M&M limited

US context: how does this apply to other regions?

Still within current planning paradigm

2 critiques

1. Banister: Models are heavily influeced with concepts from engineering and neoclassical economics : the insights within these disciplines have helped us but also constrained us.

2. Jones: the social dimension is often neglected.

System performance depends on the purpose: performance can be conflicting: what is more important + what is acceptable level. (i.e. do you measure access to jobs or congestion?)

Concluding remarks

Sytem performance depends on system purpose - defining system purpose is a political process

Performance can be conflicting - there is a need to identify priorities, make trade-offs, find compromises - this is also political

Not only technical but also communicative skilss are required

PART II

1. The sustainable mobility paradigm climate change, noise, energetic efficiency, local emissions are very serious and urgent issues in transport planning.

Traditional transport planning approach: - street as a road - demand based and modelling

Sustainable transport planning approach: - street as a space for the interaction - managemen-based and land use

Convential/traditional approach Alternative/sustainable approach Physical dimensions Social dimension Mobility Accessibility Traffic focus People focus Large in scale Local in sclae Street as a road Street as a place Motorised transport Hierarchy in mode of transport (top: bycicle) Forecasting traffic Visioning on cities Modelling approaches Scenario development and modelling Economic evaluation Multi-criteria analysis Travel as derived demand Travel as valued activity

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2. Instruments for sustainable assessment

Indicators: simple mearuses, most often quantitative that represent a state of economic social and environmental development in urban transport planning index

product related tools: focus on flows in connection with production and consumption of goods and services. - life cycle costing

Environmental impact assessment

(EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) However, this is often considered as an instrument for legitimizing the plans /interventions but not as a way of improving the plan.

Environmental assessment theory vs practice

Limited working experience in undertaking impact assessments of PPPs comprated to environmental assesssment experiene at the project level

Limited experience in linking economic, environmental and social problems within integrated and sustainability assessments

Limited time, data and other resources constraints within which assessment have to be completed

Environmental assesment too superficial. It frequently assesses and analyses problems and its difficulty

Major difference between methods developed by researches and consultants and the simpler methods normally used in practice.

1. M&M Chapter 7

Introduction transport system can be characterized by its performance, impacts and the costs. The networks, faciliteis, and services that are part of this system are referred to as transportation supply.

Links within the system

1. demand and supply are linked together. 2. Performance influences demand 3. Estimation of system performance leads to the

identification of project alternatives. 4. Links to the contiunal monitoring of system

performance. Feedback from both demand and supply analyses is used to determine where deficiencies exist

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Analysis of transportation system performance Performance can viewed from the perspective of the user and of the operator of the system. Travel time can be distinguished into in-vehicle time and out-of-vehicle time.

Performance Analysis Concepts Time-distance diagram:

Horizontal axis: between origin and any point in the diagram represents time

Vertical axis: represents distance

Is important for analysing the effects of asses management strategies along major arterial roads and the spacing of traffic signals. And they are useful for representing actual flow of vehicles within a aystem.

Impact models Determining the impacts of transportation system performance is another important role for supply analysis.

Air quality impact: levels of pollutant emissions.

Noise impact:

Fuel consumption

Cost models

Fixed costs: equivalent to the capital costs, are associated with the construction of a facility and the purchase of equipment

Variable costs: equivalent to operating costs, associated with the actual operation of the system,

Marginal costs: costs associated with the production of the last unit of output.

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2. Banister Transportation and the Environment

Introduction Cheap natural resources allowed many people to reap the benefits of transport and to travel further and more often. This has resulted in problems including traffic congestion, safety, urban sprawl and environmental problems. The paper considers GHG emissiosn to be the most pressing environmental concern. Growth in transport needs to be decoupled from economic growth to avoid further increases in transport environmental impacts.

The growth in transport

Technological developent is the main enabled and driver behint the exponential growth in the average distance traveld per person per day

Since the 18th century and the industrial revolution: transport has been seen as a precondition for development even if the direction of causality could not always be verified

On the demand side; changes in values and norms have further enhanced car ownership

On the supply side; reudction in the costs of transport, have also facilitated mass motorization

Increase of cities resulted in a increase in the demand for transport

Concern with transport and the environment over time

Mainly focus on mitigating externalities. The responde to congestion has often been an inrease in the supply of infrastructure

1980s: emerging concern about the environmental impact of transport

Decarbonizing transport decarbonizing transport = actions that lower the ratio using final transport energy use in the denomintor

The decarbonization of the worlds transport system requires a decoupling of economic growth from transport and emissions growth through creative combinations of new transport technologies and a reorganization of the ways in which travel and freight movements are undertaken

The current public policy framework for decarbonization is highly reliant on rational decision theory and expected utility theory.

However other perspectives offer alternative policy options by acknowleging the irrational behaviour of consumers and of policy actors - nudges: any aspect of a choice set that alters behavior without foreclosing alternatives or signicantly changing economic incentives

New policies would include adoptig an actrive travel strategy aimed at increasing walking and cycling.

Rethinking transport governance. It has so far been difficult ti achieve sizable emission reduction from transport. Pardox: leis in the ways in which transports decarbonization has often been conceptualized and pursued. These ways are path dependent and they are to a considerable degree patterned by modes of thinking about transport systems that came into existence in an era when transport governance was primarily amed at facilitating growth of carbon-intensive transport activivty.

Transport governance became trapped in a carbon lock-in situation.

Transport governance needs to be understood in the context of a sociotechnical system.(reprodue themselves through positive feedback loops and increasing returns)

The historic emergence of transport governance from within carbon-intensive sociotechnical systems both enables and contrains current attempt to decarbonize the transport sector.

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Main point: discourses that came into existence when the key challange facing transport planning was to accomodate the growing demand for transport, continue to structur thinking by researchers, policy makers and lobby organizations about how transport can be decarbonized. (see table how current characteristics influence current policy interventions)

Conclusions

1. It is not always clear where transport-related emissions should be reduced 2. Given transports major economic and social benefits, policy makers and other stakeholders

often hesitate to actually act to reduce or limit transport demand 3. Path dependencies further complicate decarbonization efforts.

The author believes that we need a radical holism that moves beyond the progressive intervenions already undertaken in such countries as the Netherlands.

Would mobilize the full range of possible interventions in existing transport systems

Would include new ways of understandin transport systems based on complecity theory and transitions and address issues of implementation in transport governance so that intentions and plans become realized in actual practice

Would question the merits of and potential for reducing transport congestion and it would be very cautious with respect to investments in motorized transport infrastructures

Would involve alternative ways of weighing the economic and societal effects and environmental impacts.

3.Jones The social consequences of transport decision making

Introduction Nowadays the main aim for investments in transport planning is:

Pomoting economic growth

A contribution to meeting the CO2 reduction targets

Often not mentioned is the social dimension due to limited recognition and poor articulation aim of the paper: showing the importance of a better understanding of social impacts as well as distributional effects.

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Resolving conceptual confusion Lot of confusion about what the social dimension actually is. Jones proposs a more integrated conceptual model which makes use of all dimensions. So instead of the convential representation they propose the use of fig 2. Identifying the impact and then consider how and when it might have an impact on one of the dimensions.

Social impacts focus on direct, short-run social outcomes due to the complexity of identifying relationships over the long term and the lack of existing literature. 5 factors about social outcomes and their impact (based on existing literature):

1. Accessibility micro: vehicle acces by individuals meso: netowok connectivity at neighborhood lvel strategic: sub regional acccess to employement, education etc.

2. Movement and activities potential for movement insted of the revealed movement.

3. Health related outcomes 1)road injuries, 2) air quality, 3)noise, 4)physical activity

4. Finance related often relatively high costs of travel, influence affordability for especially lower incomes.

5. Community related impact social interactions can be positive or negative.

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Distributional effects

1. Spatial distributional effects often the more negative community effects are concentrated within particular geographic locations (within areas of deprivation)

2. Temporal distributional effects 3. Socio-demographic distrubutional effects

income is seen as important but also personal characteristics

Conclusion An improvement articulation of the social dimensions of transport might attract greater research and policy attention and priority. The aim is to raise the profile of these issues within the field of transport studies.

Framing and articulation: an improved lexicon of definitions and conceptual framings

Quantification, monetarisation: more comprehensive data collection on all impacts

This renewed interest in the social aspects of policy arises for two reasons

Are economic measures of perfomance sufficient to fully reflect living conditions?

An increased economic and environmental pressure facing most countries

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LECTURE 5 EVALUATION Lecture - Els Beukers

PART I

What and why do we evaluate

Purpose: answer question for decisionmaker. What solves the problem 1. Evaluation beofre implementation ( a priori)

- to help choose among alternative solutions - to help decide whether to proceed with a solution - to improve a solution

2. Evalution after implementation (ex post) - to learn what worked, or didnt and why.

Comparative assessment methods M&M: useful information to decision makers in a well thought-out discussion of these differences, including explanations of why the differences arise. Often not so in practice black boxes and power play

1.Single objective assessment methods

Within this method you try to monotize verything (e.g. Cost Benefit Analysis/CBA)

Assessing costs easy to monotize - construction, opertion and maintenance - congestion (through VOT = Value of Traveltime) difficult to monotize - human health - loss of biodiversity - contribution to climate change

Assessing benefits

easy to monotize - travel time savings - reduced costs of vehicle operation difficult to monotize - reducing crashes (how much is a human life worth?)

VOT: 2 problems

Philosophical/ontological

- do travel time savings exist? - is it a real or pecuniary benefit?

Methodological - how to measure it?

2.Multi-objective assessment methods Focuses on score and weights (e.g. Multi Criteria Analysis/MCA)

Benefits

macro: productivity gains/increase in economic activity

micro: change in price consumer welfare

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Content-related advantages and disadvantages of CBA (Mouter)

Disadvantages

Estimation of not monotized effects

Monetize

Problem analysis

0-alternative

Coping with uncertainty

Advantages

Help think about usefulness

Improves discussion

Provides objective and independent information

Gives insight in size of welfare effects

Content-related advantages and disadvantages of MCA

Disadvantages

Subjectivity of weights

Amgiguities of procedure to assign weights

No insight in whether benefits justify costs

Advantages

Weight to reflect choices

Impact need not to be measured in monetary terms

Thresholds canb e used

Coping with uncertainty in evaluation

Identify risks

- scenario planning

- Mackie : 21 sources of error and bias

Manage risks - reactive: adapt to future - proactive: shape the future

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1. Mackie Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport appraisal

1.Unclear objectives or conflicts between stated and actual objectives lack of shared objectivs between partners in major projects

2.Prior political commitment Schemes may be difficult to reject because of the degree of political commitment

3. Current transport situation ot accurately known - date on bus usage commercial - overdomance of households

4. Study ara is incorrectly defined for budgetary reasons

5.Incorrect definiton of base and do-something cases do-nothing is usuaslly do-minimum

6.Gold plating of the do-something no good costs estimations

7.Errors in planning assumptions 8.External factors incorrectly 9. Transport inputs incorrect 10. Model error 1.Interactons not taken into account

transport investments will have effects on rival transport markets

12.Dynamics not taken into account

13. Project life incorrectly assessed 14.Quantifiable impacts ommited 15.Treatment of non-qaantifiable impacts

16. Incorrect values used 17. Double counting 18.Transfers 19. Treatment of system effects 20.Rules change during planning

period 21. Appraisal optimism

Solutions

1. Have within-organisatons, groups whose function it is to own the appraisal regime rather than the projects

2. To expose projects to open scrutiny at public inquiries 3. Spend a lot of money on ex-post evaluation

2.Beukers Why CBA is perceived as problematic Introduction CBA is widely used in ex-ante avaluation to support the decision making on infrastructure plans and others. Its aim is to provide an integral overview of the estimated costs and benefits of alternative plans and to translate them as much as possible into monetary temrms for comparison. aim of paper: to assess the proces-related issues in CBA. What perceptions do CBA participants have of current CBA assessment processes on integrated spatial and transportation plans in the Netherlands.

Results of the focus group sessions

1. Difference in perception theory & practice of CBA: Participants experienced that the national government uses the CBA balance to devide whether or ot to invest in a certain regional project. This perception deviates from the official role of the CBA in Dutch Planning

2. Limit room for negotiation: Some participants experienced that there was little or no possibility of negotitiing how effects are treated in the calculation and that the calculators were too strict in what they do. (more attention to easily monotizing effects than difficult monotizing effects)

3. No mutual understanding: struggle to cooperate between involved parties in the CBA process and the sense of not understanding eachother.

Results of the open interviews

1. Insufficient communication among participants 2. Fear that hard (easier to calculate effects) dominate over soft (difficult to calculate effects) 3. CBA as a black box (without explanation) 4. Parties act strategically with CBA input

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5. Criteria for testing CBA are unclear 6. Even though CBA may not be suited for each assessment, it is. 7. Too little attention is paid to process matters 8. CBA is used as final assessment 9. Too little room for uncertainties.

Conclusions: mistrus between plan owners and calculators: leads to a communication deficit and inferior cooperation.

3. Mouter Ranking the substantive problems in the Dutch CBA practice

Introduction CBA is used as ex-ante evaluation tool to support decision making process in transport. Aim: which problems, what is their relative order of importance, are they specific CBA or general ex-ante evaluation problems?

Results Nine problem clusters were related to the 7 CBA steps: 1) problem analysis, 2) construction reference case, 3)construct project alternatives, 4)comparing reference to alternatve + estimating non-monotized effects, 5)non-monotized effects, 6) cash flows, 7) results. (8th problem cluster: distributional effects & 9th problem cluster: uncertainty)

1. Problem analysis absence of high quality problem analysis in CBA and decision making. Not often seen as a problem.

2. Problems with estimation of non-monotized effects 3. Problems with monotizing project effects

- monotizing value of time - using incorrect valuation method

4. Problems with presentation, distributional effects and uncertainty Quality of CBS reports is problematic, not enough attention to distributional effects, difficult to deal with uncertainty

5. Differences among groups - economists select problems with non-monetized effects les often than spatial planners - economists evaluate quality of life of monotized effects more positively than the other2 - policy makers select problem analysis less then consultants and scientist - respondents who look for solutions select different problems than those who apply CBA

Conclusion The estimation of non-monetized effects are regared as the biggest problem. A large part of the mentioned problems are not specifically CBA related.