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Success stories of RES-E development: PV Solar Electricity 7th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Deutscher Bundestag Berlin - 5th October 2007. Dr. Winfried Hoffmann Chief Technology Officer (CTO), Solar Business Group of Applied Materials - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt
Success stories of RES-E development: PV Solar Electricity
7th Inter-Parliamentary MeetingDeutscher BundestagBerlin - 5th October 2007Dr. Winfried Hoffmann
Chief Technology Officer (CTO), Solar Business Group of Applied MaterialsPresident of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) and the German Solar Industry Association(BSW Solar) and member of the Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and ISFH
Applied Materials GmbH & Co. KG • Siemensstr. 100 • 63755 AlzenauPhone: +49 6023 92 6679 • Fax: +49 6023 92 6560email: [email protected] • www.appliedmaterials.com
Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt
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Applied Materials Overview
Revenue (Past 4 Qtrs.) – $9,868 Million
Worldwide Employees – Approx. 14,000
Worldwide Locations – 18 Countries
Vision: We apply nanomanufacturing technology™ to improve the way people live
Power$/W
Area$/m²
“Solar BusinessGroup” within “Energy and EnvironmentalSolutions”
SunFabTM
Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt
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0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mar
ket g
row
th in
MW
JAP GER/EU USA ROW
Historical Market Development by Regions
ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) & Navigant Consulting
Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt
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Development of the German PV market750750
600
3 3 3 3
150
807840
12101274
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
tota
l ins
talle
d PV
-pow
er in
MW
p
annually installed PV power in MWp total installed PV power in MWp
1991: Electricity Feed-In ActRight of (1) of grid access(2) feed-in of solar electricity (3) refund payment at fixed prices (approx. 8.5 €ct per kWh)
2000: Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)Solar electricity feed-in tariff of 51 €ct per kWh
2004: Amendment to EEGFeed-in tariff of 45.7 - 62.4 €ct per kWh
1991 - 1995: 1,000 Roofs
Program
1999 - 2003: 100,000 Roofs Progr.
Low-interest loansfor 300 MWp
ref: Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft, Germany)
Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt
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Renewable Energies are requested“These energy sources should secure our energy needs in the future”
Solar energy
Wind
Hydro
Geothermal
Bio energy
The vast majority of the population in Germany bets on Renewable Energies for their future energy needs.
ref: forsa, Germany 2005
Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt
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Industry is following the market More than €15 billion were invested
in PV systems in Germany since 2000
About €1 billion will be invested in manufacturing plants in 2007
– About 50 companies produce silicon, wafers, cells, modules and inverters
– Modern and automated production lines
– Improved efficiency, improved products
About €100 million will be invested in Research & Development in 2007
– Strong technological development and increased R&D activities
– R&D is done by industry and institutesImage: Aleo
Image: Q-Cells
ref: Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft, Germany)
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European Market Support Programs
2006 (est.)
1
12
63
1
12
750
Feed in Laws: Switzerland (1991); Denmark (1993); Sweden (1997); Norway, Slovenia (1999); Latvia (2001); Austria, Czech Republic, Lithuania (2002); Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Slovak Republic (2003); Turkey, Ireland (2005)
other countries
12040 – 50Greece
51,2002036 – 49Italy
115031 – 45Portugal
Cap[MW]
Duration[a]
Tariff[€ct/kWh]
5-2030 - 40
BIPV + 15- 25
France
204002522 – 41Spain
750-2038 – 49 BIPV + 5ctGermany
2005
Feed-in lawCountry
yearly market [MW]
ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA)
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Customer Needs
on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency
€/kWh €/hr light W/m² g/W
Source: Fraunhofer ISE
€/m² / aesthetics €/W flexibility W/mm²
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World PV Application Segmentation
0200400600800
100012001400160018002000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Mar
ket S
ize
in M
W
Off-Grid & Consumer on-Grid
40 %/yr overall
63%/yr
18%/yr
ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) & Navigant Consulting
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Competitiveness between ElectricityGenerating Cost for PV and Utility Prices
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
€/kWh
900 h/a: 0,60 €/kWh
1800 h/a: 0,30 €/kWh
ref: RWE Energie AG and SCHOTT Solar GmbH, Germany
market support programs necessary:
Photovoltaics
Retail prices privateand small business
Large power consumingindustries
Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt
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Summer
Winter
Standard20,64
6,35
26,78
21,42
31,92
30
10
20
¥/kWh
hours1260 2418
Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation (Jp) Tariff 2005
winter
summer
$ct/kWh
hours
60
20
0
40
0 6 12 18 24
Range of Electricity Pricesin California
ref: Japan = KEPCO office data ; California = Alison Hyde of BSW
Seasonal Electricity Prices
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Different World PV Market Projectionsuntil 2010
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
LBBW (PV Market ModelVersion 2.0, LBBW Research,Febr. 2007)EPIA (Pessimistic Scenario,PV Med Athens, Apr. 2007)
EPIA (Policy driven Estimate,PV Med, Athens, Apr, 2007)
Sarasin (Report Solar Energy,Dec. 2006)
MW
(Status: 2006/2007 )
F F F F
Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt
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History
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000
MWp accumulated
$/W
p m
odul
e pr
ice
20% price decrease by doubling cumulative volume
Experience Curve for PV Solar Modules
Forecast
ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) and W. Hoffmann personal estimates
0,1
1,0
10,0
1 10 100 1.000 10.000GW accumulated
$/W
mod
ule
pric
e
experience factor
15%
18%
1.8 GW/yr2005
340 GW/yr2030 F
6 GW/yr2010 F
70 GW/yr2020 F
Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt
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100
1,000
10,000
0.1 1 10 100
Cumulative Units Sold (Millions)M
arke
t Pric
e/un
it (1
996
$)
Analog Handset Price
10-5
10-4
10-3
10-2
10-1
1
10
100
105 107 109 1011 1013 1015 1017 1019
‘00‘95‘90‘85‘80‘75‘70‘65
~28% reduction for doubling of total volume
DR
AM
Cen
ts/b
it
Cumulative Bits
VLSI/DRAM
Cost/Learning Curve Examples
Capi
tal C
ost $
/m2
Output - m2 (000 Omitted)
1
10
1 10 100
Capi
tal C
ost $
/m2
Output - m2 (000 Omitted)
1
10
1 10 100
FPD Cost (PECVD)
Inter-Parliamentary Meeting Berlin 071005 WHff final.ppt
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Future Growth of the Global PV SolarElectricity Market in GWp and bn€ turnover
1
10
100
1.000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
year
PV P
ower
inst
alle
d, G
Wp/
a
1
10
100
1.000
10.000
Mar
ket,
billi
on €
/a
35%
10%
25%
40%
30%
5%
module levelrange depending onexperience factor (15% - 18%)20%
15%
fab-invest level (decrease: ~10% every 5 years)upper bound: c-Si, full production chainlower bound: thin film
ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates
F FF F F FF
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Electricity generating cost
[€ct/kWh]Eurelectric /
VGB Power Tech
Today
2005
Tomorrow
2030
Day after tomorrow
2050
Fossile (coal, gas) 4 - 4.5 6-7 6.5 - 9
Nuclear (PWR, HTR, FBR) 4 – 6 3.5 – 7 3.5 - 6
PV solar electricity(south/north)
20/40 5/10 3/6
= own estimates
ref: EURELECTRIC and W. Hoffmann personal estimates
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Solar is Projected to be Big
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Summary: The Future of PV Solar Electricity (I) Success story for PV solar electricity industry due to market support
programs (40 % annual growth in the last decade) specific
Industry investment for PV solar electricity high-tech production needs
Stable market conditions
Not short also not long term, but until grid parity is reached (+ 5 … 15 years)
Allow differentiated feed-in tariff programs in EK 27 – do not force non-differentiating quota systems / trading of green certificates in short term
No stop and go budget(happening when coming from finance minister, instead feed in tariff budgets allocated to electricity users)
In compliance with population (more than 80% of people like to support financially in particular PV systems, e.g. modest increase to electricity bill in feed in tariffs)
Easy grid access without bureaucratic hurdles (no approval procedures for decentralized PV systems)
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Summary: The Future of PV Solar Electricity (II)
If support programs are done now globally, we will have
Short term (2015 …)– Reach grid parity in liberalized utility markets– Market volume above 30 bn €
Medium term (2030 …)– Reach generation cost equal to clean coal electricity production– Market volume towards 200 bn €– Be the most suited energy delivery together with micro-credit financing to
the billions of people in the developing world
Long term (2050 …)– Together with solar thermal electricity power stations be the lowest cost
electricity producing technology (also less than nuclear)– Contribute aggressively to the global electricity needs (more than30 %)
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END