Sub-Saharan African energy futures:

Kenya, Tanzania and South Africa

Joni Karjalainen University of Turku

Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC)Neo-Carbon Energy

9th Researchers’ Day 11th December 2017

joni.karjalainen@utu.fi

WP1: Neo-Carbon Enabling Neo-Growth Society – Transformative Energy Futures 2050

• Reflections for transformative scenarios until 2050. Focus on societal disruptions, transformations and discontinuities

• Characterise possible socio-economic futures related to neo-carbon energy system.

• What kinds of societal – economic, cultural, political and lifestyles-related –changes does the neo-carbon energy system promote and enable?

• Case countries in the Sub-Saharan African region: South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania

INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVES

RESULTS• 3 futures workshops: 2 in Nairobi, Kenya and 1 in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

• 1 WP1 Working Paper, 1 e-Book

• 1 published article: Karjalainen, Joni & Heinonen, Sirkka (2017) Using Deliberative Foresight to envision a Neo-Carbon Energy Innovation Ecosystem –the Case Study of Kenya. African Journal for Science, Technology, Innovation and Development. Pages 1-17, ISSN 2042-1338, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/20421338.2017.1366133

• 1 in peer-review: Karjalainen, J. & Byrne, R. (2018) Pioneering solar energy companies in Kenya and Tanzania – past development trajectories and future scenarios, Energy Research & Social Science. Forthcoming

2 conference papers have been submitted into Futures Conference June 13-14, 2018 Tampere

Kenya Tanzania South

Africa

Human Development Index1 (188 countries ranked) 146. 151. 119.

CO2 emissions per capita (2015)2 (204 regions ranked) 172. 181. 39.

Global Innovation Index3 (127 countries ranked) 80. 96. 57.

% of R&D spending out of GDP4

(year of latest available data)0.78 %(2010)

0.53 %(2013)

0.73 %(2013)

CASE STUDY COUNTRIES

1HDR 2017 2EU-JRC/PBL 2016 3GII 2017 4World Bank 2017

Table. Data about the three case study countries: Kenya, Tanzania and South Africa.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Geographical construct

Kenya

Tanzania

South Africa

Figure. Wikimedia Commons

Kenya

Tanzania

South Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa (1939)

Wave of independence in the 1960s

Figure. Wikimedia Commons

Sub-Saharan Africa (2013)

What each country in the world leads in

Kenya

Tanzania

South AfricaFigure. Doghouse Diaries 2013 Full Map https://i2.wp.com/gypsy.ninja/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/11.jpg?ssl=1https://i.pinimg.com/originals/28/0b/4a/280b4ab64df7e5197d003e12205be35b.jpg

Kenya

Tanzania

South Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Solar mapData: Solar GIS

Renewable energy, solar in particular is increasingly

expected to power Africa’s future

• A powerful sociotechnical imaginary for the Global South(Cloke, Mohr, and Brown 2017)

• The research agenda should better understandtransformations for sustainability (Wiek and Lang 2016), howthey are enabled, why they happen and by whom

• A research gap exists in understanding the political andsocio-cultural dimensions to this rapidly unfolding transition inAfrican countries.

METHODOLOGY AND DATA

• Testing transformative energy scenarios 2050 • Expert interviews (typically local energy and innovation experts)• Three futures workshops as focus group discussions

• 24th September 2015 in Nairobi, Kenya• 8th October 2015 in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania• 18th October 2017 in Nairobi, Kenya

• Cross-fertilization of research• 2nd Stakeholder Forum of the Africa-EU Energy Partnership 16.-17.5.2016• SPRU PhD Forum in the University of Sussex, Brighton, UK 9 May 2017 • EEP Knowledge Exchange Seminar in Kampala, Uganda 2017, 11 October 2017

FUTURES WORKSHOP I: NAIROBI

Ali Hersi from Society for International Development (SID INT) delivered opening words. Professor IzaelDa Silva from Strathmore University and Chrispine Oduor from IEA-Kenya provided expert presentations in the futures workshop in September 24, 2015.

• Participants policy-makers, business-leaders, energyresearchers and futures community

• Discussion on 100% renewable energy futures, globaltrends in Kenya.

• In the afternoon, the workshop participants commentedthe four scenarios.

FUTURES WORKSHOP II: DAR ES SALAAM

• The participants were aspiring entrepreneurs, innovatorsor local university students

• Discussion on the significance of renewable energytechnologies, impacts and related skills necessary.

• In the end, the workshop participants were asked toimagine where Tanzania could be in 2020, 2030 or2050?

Dar es Salaam futures workshop participants in BUNI Hub, Commission of Science and Technology (COSTECH) in October 8, 2015.

“Energizing surprises – future transformation through innovation?” was co-organised in Nairobi October 18, 2017 by the University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) and Afrepren/FWD – Energy, Environment and Development Network for Africa.

FUTURES WORKSHOP III: NAIROBI

• The workshop participants were local energy experts, technology and research community, including Kenya’sRural Energy Authority (REA)

• Discussion focussed on surprises – 100 % renewables, energy planning and the role of institutions

SOUTHAFRICA

• ‘Apartheid’, was introduced in 1948, international pressureincluded an internationaloil embargo in the 1980s

• Despite post-apartheid era since 1994, deep divides persist

• Electricity access 84-88%

• 77 % of South Africa's primary energy needs provided by coal.

• Economic activity driven by mining industry, “minerals-energy complex” (Baker et al. 2014)

• South Africa has the 13th highest emissions in the entire world, the largest CO2 emitter in the continent

• Energy crisis since 2007. Load-shedding now eased from the worst periods

LOCKED IN COAL Johannesburg

Cape Town

/ SOUTHAFRICA: WIND AND SOLAR

Figure. South Africa’s wind resources. Mean wind speed(WRF based) Data: WASA 2014.

Figure. South Africa receives between 1900-2500kWh/m2 of solar irradiation. The best solarconditions are in the Western Cape area, in thenorthwestern region of the country. Data: SolarGIS

/ SOUTHAFRICA

Figure. http://www.energyintelligence.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Renewable-Energy-South-Africa-Electricity-Power-Plants.jpg

Figure. Blue Horizon. http://bluehorizon.energy/insights-news/

RE IPPPP

SOUTHAFRICA:RE IPPPP• RE IPPPP (Renewable Energy

Independent Power Producer Procurement Program) in 2011

• Auction mechanism with bidding rounds

• “The most successful public-private partnership in Africa in 20 years”

• Resistance by Eskom, the state utility, has delayed RE IPPPP projects

• Numsa, the metalworkers’ union, also advocates for renewable energy, but has questioned RE IPPPP on thebasis that it favoursexperienced global players over keeping production local and socially owned

FUTURE DIRECTIONS

“As the world moves away from coal, South Africa

will need to consider the implications. The country

depends heavily on the mineral as a source of

economic value, employment and energy.”

(Statistics SA)

“This [high share of coal in “This [high share of coal in energy production] is unlikely to change significantly in the next two decades owing to the relative lack of suitable alternatives to coal as an

energy source. Many of the deposits can be exploited at extremely favourable costs

and, as a result, a large coal-mining industry has

developed.

(Government of SA)

TANZANIA

• Tanzania’s land area is at 550 000km2. In the rural areas, onlyaround 5% has been estimated tobe electrified.

• The 2016 survey interviewed10,140 households, in 26 Mainlandregions, covering 676 enumerationareas in the Tanzania Mainland.

REA (2017) Energy Access Situation Report, 2016 Tanzania Mainland. Rural Energy Agency. April 19, 2017. http://rea.go.tz/NewsCenter/TabId/130/ArtMID/639/ArticleID/91/Energy-Access-Situation-Report-2016-Tanzania-Mainland.aspx

• Solar energy as a source of lighting has increased: 1.4 percent (2012) to 8.1 percent (2016)

• 13 % households own PV system, 78% mobile phone. More common to own PV than an electric iron

• Out of electrified rural households, 64.8% with solar power

• Of electrified households, 24.7 percent by solar power, 74.9 percent receive electricity through the grid

(See Pages 3, 32, 46-47, 50)

???

KENYA: WIND AND SOLAR

Energy Planning in Kenya: 2003-2016

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Hydro Thermal Oil Cogeneration Wind Geothermal Solar

• Has diversified country’s energysector successfully, hydro and geothermal are major contributors

Figure by Karekezi (2017)

4.3

10.0 9.8 9.78.8 8.6

10.212.2 12.4

13.4

26.1 26.9 27.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Perc

enta

ge

Year

Establishment of Geothermal

Development Corporation

(GDC)

% Geothermal of Total National Installed Capacity

Data: Kenya Power (KPLC) Annual Reports 2002/03-2015/16Figure by Karekezi (2017)

10,914,5

16,1

23 23

2730

47

55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

POPU

LAT

ION

PE

RC

EN

TAG

E

YEAR Figure: Karekezi (2017)

Access to Electricity (% of Population)• Rapid growth to 55% • Plans to raise electricy access to 70% by end of 2017 (KPLC, 2016)

Establishment of REA

Safaricom/Mpesa/M-KopaSolar PV installed Capacity

1,23,9

7 8,712,3

17,89

25,4

31,6

54,9

61,7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity

in M

Wp

Year

Establishment of M-Kopa

PAYG model

Figure: Karekezi (2017)

CONCLUSIONSAND WAY AHEAD• Different positive narratives in different countries

• Kenya: institutions + pay-as-you go• Tanzania: pay-as-you-go + mini-grids• South Africa: RE IPPPP as an auction mechanism

• Co-creation for sharing economic benefits

• Potential future collaborations in 2018 in Nairobi, Kenya• Scenario work with the Millennium Project East Africa• Strathmore University, Strathmore Energy Research Centre

• Follow the pay-as-you-go innovation story in West Africa

NEO-CARBON ENERGY project is one of the Tekes strategic research openings and the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University

of Technology LUT and University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC.

Thank You!

NEO-CARBON ENERGY project is one of the Tekes strategic research openings and the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University

of Technology LUT and University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC.

GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT COMPANY (GDC)

Source: GDC

Mission: Develop green energy for Kenya from geothermal resources

Vision: To be a world leader in the development of geothermal resources

• Since 2000, exploration activity has confirmed the African regions’ oil and gas potential, with many countries confirming oil and/or gas reserves.

Figure. Confirmation of oil and gas reserves in African continent. SAOGA

/ BUSINESS-AS-USUAL IS NOT AN OPTION

Data: GSMA (2016)

Data: GSMA (2016)

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION FORECAST 2040

Kenya

Tanzania

South AfricaFigure. Wikimedia Commons

• Institutional Innovator(Kenya)

• The Mini-Grid Miracle(Tanzania)

• Auction Ambitions (South Africa)

Baker, Lucy, Peter Newell & Jon Phillips (2014) The Political Economy of Energy Transitions: The Case of South Africa, New Political Economy, 19:6, 791-818, DOI: 10.1080/13563467.2013.849674

Baker, L. (2015). Renewable energy in South Africa’s minerals-energy complex: a “low carbon” transition? Rev. Afr. Polit. Econ. 42, 245–261. doi:10.1080/03056244.2014.953471

Brent A, (2014), Understanding the Food Energy Water Nexus, WWF SA ReportEberhard, A; Kolker, J; Leigland, J. 2014. South Africa's Renewable Energy IPP Procurement Program : Success

Factors and Lessons. World Bank Group, Washington, DC,https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20039

Karjalainen J. and Heinonen S. (2017) Using Deliberative Foresight to envision a Neo-Carbon Energy Innovation Ecosystem – a Case Study of Kenya. African Journal for Science, Technology, Inno-vation and Development p. 1-17

EY RECAI (2017), Renewable Energy Market Attractiveness Reports, EYMoner-Girona, M., R. Ghanadan, M. Solano-Peralta, I. Kougias, K. Bódis, T. Huld, S. Szabó, Adaptation of Feed-in

Tariff for remote mini-grids: Tanzania as an illustrative case, Renewable and Sustaina-ble Energy Reviews, Volume 53, January 2016, Pages 306-318, ISSN 1364-0321, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.08.055. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032115009181

Swilling M and Annecke E (2012), Just Transitions: Explorations of Sustainability in an Unfair World, UNU Press

“You as a business need to be there (based in the target country) yourself

to make your business happen!”

FURTHER READING