Studying the Process with Real Data: A Case

Study in Maryland

Shawn Bushway

Emily Owens

Data Landscape

How do we measure crime and criminal justice in the United States?

Aggregate panel data that measures crime OR punishment BJS Recidivism of Released Prisoners an

exception

“Social” data that link the two National Longitudinal Survey of Youth Fragile Families

Linked Administrative Records: Can Researchers do Better?

Pro: Tells you “what the system did” Can follow individuals over time Side step many problems inherent in single or

aggregate data sets Sentence length vs. Incarceration

Forces researcher to understand PROCESS

Con: Criminal justice system fragmented

Conceptual Landscape

Seminal Work: Klepper Nagin Tierney

Selection processes are KEY Downstream actors can subvert upstream actors Upstream actors frame decisions of downstream actors

Studies of any one stage needs to model actors at other stage Multiple equations Need identification restrictions

Don’t combine different processes (plea,trial)

So, What Happened? Initially heavily cited (Hagan and Zatz)

Selection matters Cool paper on Watergate

Guideline data becomes available Conviction only data

Motivated use of Heckman Mechanistic No exclusion restrictions

Rarely cited now, no structural models

Lessons in Ether

Hydraulic displacement of discretion

Mandatory Sentences Laws not enforced as intended

Courtroom workgroups Focus on individual characteristics, not

interactions

Empirical Demonstrations

Guidelines as starting point for judges

Race Effects Race matters for incarceration, not sentence

length – judges more likely to sentence blacks/hispanics to prison.

BUT … Blacks/hispanics less likely to make Bail.

If make bail, more likely to have cases dismissed

If don’t make bail more likely to plead guilty, get time served

Whites who get cases dismissed not in conviction data set to compare with blacks who plead guilty and get time served

Do not have exogenous variation to identify selection

Identification Example With Maryland Data

Legal Actors in a Guidelines System (Bushway, Owens, and Piehl)

To what extent do sentencing guidelines affect judicial decision making?

Examine 17,052 single count cases

In 1,714 guidelines recommendation inconsistently calculated confirmed by Sentencing Commission mathematical error misinterpreted cross walk

What was the source of these “inaccuracies”?

Offense

Score 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 - 9

VII P P P P-1M P-3M P-6M 3M-6M 6M-2Y

V P-6M P-12M 3M-12M 6M-18M 1Y-2Y 1.5Y-2.5Y 2Y-3Y 3Y-4Y

IV P-12M P-18M 6M-18M 1Y-2Y 1.5Y-2.5Y 2Y-3Y 3Y-4Y 3.5Y-10Y

III – A P-18M P-2Y 6M-2Y 1Y-4Y 2Y-6Y 3Y-8Y 4Y-12Y 10Y-20Y

III – B 6M-3Y 1Y-3Y 18M-4Y 3Y-7Y 4Y-8Y 5Y-10Y 7Y-14Y 12Y-20Y

III – C 1Y-4Y 2Y-5Y 3Y-6Y 4Y-7Y 5Y-8Y 6Y-10Y 8Y-15Y 15Y-25Y

II 20Y-24Y 22Y-26Y 24Y-28Y 26Y-30Y 28Y-32Y 30Y-36Y 32Y-37Y 35Y-40Y

Offender Score

What do these sentences look like?

Consistent n=15,338

Too Highn=936

Too Lown=778

WorksheetRecommendation

45.4(56.6)

63.9(76.6)

30.0(40.4)

ConsistentRecommendation

45.4(56.6)

36.5(47.9)

47.4(53.7)

Judge’s Sentence

21.2(45.1)

22.3(40.6)

18.5(36.0)

% Private Representation 33.6 30.9 34.1

% Plea Bargain 70.5 79.6 71.7

Are judges influenced by sentencing guidelines?

Where

CMi = Consistent Midpoint (what SHOULD be)

WMi = Worksheet Recommendation (what is)

DU = Recommendation is too high

DL = Recommendation is too low

Xi= Representation, Race, Plea, Type of Offense, Age, Number of “similar” offenses

ijtijtLijtijtL

UijtijtUijtAtjijt

XDCMWM

DCMWMCM

Sentence

Are judges influenced by sentencing guidelines?

Each accurately recommended month = 17.6 day sentence

se=2.23

Each “accidental” month added = 5 more daysse=1.67

Each “accidental” month subtracted = 12.7 fewer daysse=2.54

What are we finding?

Legislatively imposed guidelines reduce judicial discretion in an asymmetric way

“Decisions” made by upstream actors can reduce punishment

Less effective at increasing punishment

We can press further

With linked administrative data: Can incorporate parole decisions Use Incarceration Length instead of Sentence Length

as dependant variable

Does incarceration have a specific deterrence effect?

Stay tuned for results (Waiting for approval)