STUDY SUMMARY & FINDINGS JUNE 2006 2006/TPT-WG-28/AEG-SRV_004_v2 28 th APEC Transportation Working...
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STUDY SUMMARY & FINDINGS JUNE 2006 2006/TPT-WG-28/AEG-SRV_004_v2 28 th APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting Vancouver, Canada 5-8 September 2006 Study of the Impacts of Air Transport Liberalization: Study Summary and Findings Purpose: Information Submitted by: Michael Tretheway, Executive Vice President, InterVISTAS Consulting Inc.
STUDY SUMMARY & FINDINGS JUNE 2006 2006/TPT-WG-28/AEG-SRV_004_v2 28 th APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting Vancouver, Canada 5-8 September 2006 Study
STUDY SUMMARY & FINDINGS JUNE 2006
2006/TPT-WG-28/AEG-SRV_004_v2 28 th APEC Transportation Working
Group Meeting Vancouver, Canada 5-8 September 2006 Study of the
Impacts of Air Transport Liberalization: Study Summary and Findings
Purpose: Information Submitted by: Michael Tretheway, Executive
Vice President, InterVISTAS Consulting Inc.
Slide 2
STUDY SUMMARY & FINDINGS JUNE 2006
2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2
Slide 3
3 Background Commercial aviation is governed today by a myriad
of arcane rules and regulations that defy logic and the principles
of free trade. Most airlines are trying to become more competitive
and responsive to consumer demand for lower fares. Despite the
efforts of the U.S. Government, and selected others, some
governments and airlines want the protection of todays regulatory
regime.
Slide 4
4 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 Background (contd) Conventional
wisdom is that: Liberal air service agreements promote economic
growth and jobs. Airlines, freed of economic regulation, will
produce more efficiently, and that will translate into lower fares.
However: There has been no vehicle for measuring the potential
impacts of liberal agreements until after they have been
implemented for a number of years. There has been inadequate
information available relative to the benefits of free trade in
aviation.
Slide 5
5 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 Study Objectives Examine air
service liberalization and identify the impacts on air travel and
economic growth. Develop an analytical model that will measure the
benefits of liberalization -- prospectively. Provide the means to
validate liberalization assumptions through case studies. Promote a
better informed debate on the historical and potential benefits of
liberalization.
Slide 6
6 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 The Scope and Scale of the
Industry World airlines annually transport roughly 2 billion
passengers per annum and carried almost 40% of world trade by
value. Air transport is a major contributor to job creation and
economic growth. 8% of world GDP 5 million direct jobs, and an
additional 8.5 million indirect and induced jobs 15.5 million
additional direct and indirect jobs resulting from air transports
impact on tourism.
Slide 7
7 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 Modeling Liberalization Isolate
Liberalization Traffic Growth link Determine Increased Traffic
Drive Demand Against Baseline Economic Data Generate Increased GDP,
Employment, Tourism/Business and Catalytic Benefits Liberalization
Traffic growth Economic Growth Jobs
Slide 8
8 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 The Impact of Liberalization: A
Cross-Sectional Approach TRAFFIC GDP x GDP * Restrictive 1 Liberal
3 + * Restrictive 2 Liberal 1 + * Restrictive 4 * Restrictive 3
Liberal 2 + + Liberal 5 + Liberal 4 Restrictive 5 * Liberal
Bilaterals Restrictive Bilaterals
Slide 9
9 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 Selected Findings-#1 Test the
models What If capability Examine 320 arbitrary country pairs
Determine economic impact if all were liberalized RESULT
Liberalizing the 320 ASAs would generate 24.1 million jobs and
generate an incremental $490 billion GDP. This approximates the GDP
of Brazil.
Slide 10
10 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 Selected Findings-#2 Examined
EU Single Aviation Market (1992 Package) Traffic growth tracked EU
GDP 1990-1994 1995 & beyond traffic growth rate well above GDP
Traffic growth rate 1995-2004 was double the pre-1994 rate of
growth. Low Cost Carrier (LCC) market share expanded from 1.4% in
1996 to 20.2% in 2003. RESULT Incremental GDP $85 billion; new jobs
-- 1.4 million.
Slide 11
11 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 Selected Findings-#3 U.S.-UK
agreement was significantly liberalized in mid-1990s. All markets
opened between U.S. and UK, except Heathrow and Gatwick. A U.S.-EU
Air Transport Agreement would completely liberalize the U.S.-UK
market. RESULT Traffic between the U.S. & UK would expand by
29%. GDP would expand by $7.8 billion -- 117,000 new jobs would be
created.
Slide 12
12 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 Case Studies: US-UK 1994 10
City-Pairs 62 Weekly Flights Belfast Glasgow Manchester Birmingham
Washington Dulles Atlanta Chicago OHare New York JFK Boston Los
Angeles Nonstop US-UK Routes (Excluding Heathrow & Gatwick)
Source: May 1994 Official Airline Guide, US/UK Designated Carriers
Only
Slide 13
13 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 Case Studies: US-UK 2006 17
City-Pairs 144 Weekly Flights Birmingham Washington Dulles Atlanta
Chicago OHare Newark Boston Nonstop US-UK Routes (Excluding
Heathrow & Gatwick) Source: May 2006 Official Airline Guide,
US/UK Designated Carriers Only Las Vegas Philadelphia Orlando (MCO)
Bristol London Stansted New York JFK Belfast Glasgow Edinburgh
Manchester
Slide 14
14 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 Selected Findings-#4 Partial
liberalization of Malaysia - Thailand agreement achieved via MoU to
allow increase in capacity, frequency and routes. RESULT Traffic
between Malaysia and Thailand grew by 370,000 passengers per annum
(37%). Identical impacts on both countries. GDP would expanded by
$114 million each 4,300 new jobs created.
Slide 15
15 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 Kuala Lumpur (Subang) Chiang
Mai Bangkok Penang Hat Yai Phuket Malaysia - Thailand Nonstop
Services April 1996
Slide 16
16 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 Kuala Lumpur (Subang) Koh
Samui Chiang Mai Kota Kinabalu Bangkok Kuala Lumpur (KLIA) Penang
Hat Yai Phuket Malaysia - Thailand Nonstop Services April 2006
Slide 17
17 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 Source: OAG Schedules February
2001 May 2006
Slide 18
18 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 Summary of Case Studies: Job
Creation Intra Community - 1.4 million jobs U.S.-UK - 117,000 jobs
UAE to Germany and UK - 26,000 jobs Australia-New Zealand - 40,000
jobs Malaysia-Thailand - 8,600 jobs
Slide 19
19 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 Summary Findings Open Skies
between U.S. & EU would benefit the U.S. and UK markets by
adding 117,000 jobs and $7.8 billion in GDP. Liberalizing a
sampling of 320 ASAs would generate 24.1 million jobs and generate
an incremental $490 billion GDP. Case studies uniformly support
model results and conventional wisdom. Intra-EU Open Skies produced
doubling of growth rate of traffic for the 1995-2004 period versus
pre-1994 regulated environment.
Slide 20
20 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2 Conclusions World economies
are heavily dependent on air transport. We now have a model that
will test the impact of liberalization on a prospective basis. This
model documents the economic and job creating benefits of
liberalizing air service agreements. This study found that if
countries want to increase jobs and economic growth, liberalizing
their air services will help do this.
Slide 21
STUDY SUMMARY & FINDINGS Copy of full study available at
www.InterVISTAS.com 2006_TPT-WG-28_AEG-SRV_004_v2