Study on the impact of EU consumption on

deforestation

FLEGT WEEK, 10th October 2013

GIULIANA TORTAEuropean Commission

DG ENVIRONMENT

Reports published on 2nd Julyhttp://ec.europa.eu/environment/forests/impact_deforestation.htm

03.07.2013 http://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2013/07/03/l-europe-importe-massivement-des-produits-lies-a-la-deforestation_3440966_3244.html

NGOs, main media sites, twitter and other networks

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EU impact on deforestation

deforestation associated with EU27 final consumption is 10% of worldwide deforestation embodied in commodities and products in 2004 (732.000 ha).

Consumption of oil crops (e.g. soybeans, palm oil) and derived products, as well as livestock products, had the main impact.

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Over the period 1990-2008, the EU27 imported almost 36% of all deforestation embodied in crop and livestock products traded between regions (9Mha of deforested land).

The second ranked region in terms of net import of deforestation was Eastern Asia (including China and Japan), with 4.5 Mha over the same period. North America imported 1.9 Mha.

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The land used by the EU27 for the production of its goods and services represents only half of the land associated with its consumption

Mainly agricultural and food products, but also derived processed products such as furniture and clothing

When aggregated per sector, food consumption dominates the impact on deforestation (60%).

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Reasons for this study October 2008 Communication [COM (2008) 645]

"Addressing the challenges of deforestation and forest degradation to tackle climate change and biodiversity loss"

The COM indicates, among other actions, the following: "More generally on policy coherence, the Commission is committed to […]: studying the impact of EU consumption of imported food and non-food commodities (e.g. meat, soy beans, palm oil, metal ores) that are likely to contribute to deforestation. This could lead to considering policy options to reduce this impact".

Responding to the Communication, the Environment Council, the European Parliament and the Economic and Social Committee all expressed strong support for such a study.

What is deforestation

Mining, illegal logging, unsustainable forest management,shifting cultivation, etc.

Pastures / livestock

Infrastructure development

DEFORESTATION

degradation

due to internal country consumption/land use and to external demand (exports)

Agricultural crops (timber minor)

natural hazards

Study objectives

Task 1: Data gathering

andStudy

Implementation Methodology development

Task 2 : Impact

Analysis

Task 4: Policy

Proposals

Task 3: Policy

Analysis

Objectives

comprehensive analysis of the impacts of EU consumption of imported food and non-food commodities and manufactured goods on deforestation

Identification of areas where Community policies and where applicable legislation would need to be reviewed in order to support efforts to reduce deforestation

specific suggestions for how the policies identified could be oriented to reduce EU impacts on deforestation

other possible policy measures at other levels (e.g. EU Member State, multilateral, private sector) that could support the overall objective of reducing the loss of forest cover in third countries

Stakeholder participation

Stakeholders ws

transition model eforestation/land use changes

TRANSITION PATHWAYS

FAO FRA 2010 Deforestation data

(1990-2010)

Deforestation-transition Literature

Deforestation and subsequent land-use classes: Forest, Grass (pasture), Crop (cultivated), Other

FAOSTAT land resources in time series

(1990-2008)

DEFORESTED LAND IN COMMODITIES from these land-use classes (agricultural and forest commodities)

LANDFLOW

LAND IN COMMODITIES from these land-use classes (agricultural and forest commodities)

FAOSTAT land-use data (1990-2008)

Commodities linked to land-use classes

FAOSTAT primary production data

(1990-2008)

GTAP data(1992-2008)

TSTRADE and GTAP MRIO

INTERNATIONAL TRADE MATRICES

including ‘deforestation-prone’ fossil fuels and

ores(monetary) AGRICULTURE AND

FORESTRY TRADE MATRICES(physical)

FAOSTAT Supply Utilisation Accounts

(SUA)(1990-2008)

FAOSTAT Wood Balances (WB)

(1992-2008)

FAOSTAT Trade Data

(1990-2008)

National WBs

National SUAs

OVERALL IMPACT

ASSESSMENT

Literature on land-use related

sustainability indicators

· Assessment of generated indicators vs existing

· Add-on indicator

· Land-use and deforested land-use indicators

· Apparent consumption of agriculture and forest commodities

· Final Sector Consumption of products

· Consumption scenarios

Transition model deforestation/land use changes

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What is new compared to other studies

Global modelling, not case or country based A 'transition model' linking deforestation and

land use changes An indicator: embedded/embodied

deforestation in crops/products. Externality linking deforestation to the associated consumption of goods.

raw commodities but also entire consumption sectors analysed, i.e.leather/textile

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The limits of the study Data sets (1990-2008/10 for deforestation and

apparent consumption; 2004 for final consumption analysis) reflecting FAO FRA/ FAOSTAT datasets limits (25% of deforestation remains unexplained) and modelling (GTAP limits)

Forest degradation not quantified underestimation of illegal logging and unsustainable management practices

Expert's assumption in building the transition model (attribution of weights to deforestation drivers/commodities production)

Two-track modelling for apparent (LANDFLOW) and final consumption (GTAP)

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- HOW MUCH: 239 million hectares of forest were lost between 1990 and 2008, an annual area of 13 million hectares (Mha).

- WHERE: Major regional differences are present in this trend: South America is the hardest hit by deforestation (33% of global deforestation), followed by sub-Saharan-Africa (31%) and Southeast Asia (19%).

Global deforestation

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27%

17%

4%

2%

24%26%

52%

1990-2000

19%

17%

4%

2%

24%34%

60%

2000-2008

24%

17%

4%

2%

24%29%

55%

1990-2008Unexplained

Natural hazards (esp. wildfire)

Expansion of urban areas & infrastructure Industrial roundwood production (logging) Ruminant livestock production

Crop production

Causes of deforestation

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Deforestation embodied in international trade

A substantial part of the embodied deforestation remains in the country/region of production: - crops (two thirds), livestock (92%) and wood

products (two thirds).

The remaining part is exported to other regions. Oil crops (soybean and oil palm) and their derived products represent the largest share (63%) of this commodities export, followed by stimulants such as coffee and tea (11%), and fibre crops (8%).

deforestation and crops

0 5000 10000 15000 20000

SoybeanMaize

Oil PalmRice, PaddySugar cane

SorghumGroundnut

Bean, DryCocoa Bean

CassavaMillet

WheatNatural rubber

Seed CottonOther crops

1000 Ha

Sub-Saharan Africa Central America South America

South & East Asia Southeast Asia Rest of World

Figure 3-6 Contribution of specific crops to deforestation associated with expansion of crop production, per crop 1990-2008

Main commodities /products into EU

Soybean (cake and beans) from Brazil

Meat products from Brazil

Soybean (cake and beans) from Argentina

From Nigeria and West Africa many crops (cocoa)

Soybeans from Paraguay

Palm oil from Indonesia

Stimulants, fibers, rubber

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- Average food consumption per capita in the EU27 is expected to stabilise but with a slightly growing EU27 population, additional land (and related land use) of 3 to 4 Mha will be needed by 2020-2030.

- Slight behavioural changes in EU27 food consumption patterns, such as decreased meat consumption, could reduce the need for additional land by up to 10 Mha by 2020-2030.

- A reduction in food waste could also significantly reduce the impact of EU consumption on deforestation.

Future trends: food sector

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- Oil crops and the biofuel sector are expected to demand more land and could be the cause of additional deforestation.

- For solid biomass, the study predicts an additional demand of 318 million m³ round wood from forests between 2010 and 2020.

- The bulk of this bioenergy will be in the form of wood pellets, increasingly being imported (EU demand for wood pellets is estimated to triple by 2020)

Future trends: energy sector

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IDENTIFIED POLICIES

Climate and Renewable energyCommon Agricultural Policy Forestry Strategy Biodiversity Strategy Sustainable Production and ConsumptionTrade, Investment Development Cooperation Research and Innovation

2020

LIST OF POLICY PROPOSALS

Out of 34, those scoring high are 5 but all in need of feasibility and legal checks:

- Extend the sustainability criteria for biofuels to other uses of the same crops (food, feed, products, materials);- Promote and strengthen FLEGT AP, and expand to other commodities- Mandatory labelling of the forest footprint of (food) products;- Increase the import tariffs of commodities that are associated with deforestation;- Attach sustainability criteria to the import of commodities that are associated with deforestation

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Possibilities for political follow up of the study results

Reflection and preparation phase, not only in the EC (Chatham House and Meridien Institute work)

7th Environment Action Programme: an Action Plan on deforestation

In the pipeline or ongoing in the EC/EU: • Sustainable Food Communication or SWP; • Study EU impact on biodiversity; • EU initiative on responsible sourcing of

minerals: COM/REG• sustainability criteria for solid biomass• Responsible business practices (reporting,

code of conducts)

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Multilateral processesREDD negotiations and informal working groupsCBDPost UNFFPost 2015 targets (RIO+20 follow up)Green Economy mainstreaming

Bilateral dialogue with the USA•Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations, beyond the current multilateral trade rules contained in WTO law

Private sectorExample from Zero-deforestation targets from Nestle' and others

Thank you for your attention