Stuart Revell - Welcome to Forum Europe EMS Revell... · 2019 Q1 2020 Source:GSMA 1G 2G 3G 4G ... Next generation services enabled, ... Mobile* 3G,4G, 5G PAN/* LAN* SRD/ WiFi*

Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only 1

Stuart Revell

Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016

Agenda

As we continue to move forward with the development of 5G technologies and solutions, we move closer and closer to realising the vision of connectivity for people and objects everywhere. 2020 is universally seen as the target for wide scale 5G rollout, but this is not where the challenge will end – it is estimated that 5G technologies will peak in around 2040, so it is essential that the groundwork that is being put in now does not only consider the short term requirements for network rollout, but also looks beyond to the requirements to enable its growth and a sustainable future. This session will plot both the short and long term path to widespread 5G adoption by first looking at the transition period in the lead-up to 2020 and how to best manage the shift from 4G to 5G; and then to the longer term future and at the challenges and opportunities ahead as we look to ensure a sustainable 5G future.

13:30 – 13:50 Presentation: From previous generations to 5G: An integrated and robust IoT platform Stuart Revell, 5G Innovation Centre, University of Surrey

13:50 – 14:10 Presentation: Next Generation Internet Protocols: 5G & the Internet, finding the best path together Andy Sutton, Principal Network Architect, BT UK

14:10 – 14:30 Presentation: Toward 5G Deployment in 2020 and Beyond Takehiro Nakamura, VP and Managing Director of 5G Laboratory, NTT DOCOMO, Inc.

14:30 – 15:45 Panel Discussion: Delivering a sustainable and long-term 5G future •  Bernard Barani, Deputy Head of Unit, Dir E, Network Technologies, European Commission •  Ruy Pinto, Group Chief Operations Officer, Inmarsat plc (on behalf of ESOA) •  Mike Short, Vice President, Telefónica Europe •  Bashir Gwandu, Chairman, Commonwealth ITU Group

13:30 – 15:45 Moderator: Stuart Revell, 5G Innovation Centre, University of Surrey Session 3: Plotting the path to 2020 and beyond


What is the 5GIC?

Based at the University of Surrey (UoS) in the Institute of Communications Systems (ICS)

World’s largest academic/industry research partnership & test facility for the development of future 5G Communications.

£5m from Enterprise M3 LEP to support: •  5GIC test facilities development •  Step-out 5GIC facilities to SMEs within the region •  Create 5G Incubation Facilities at key locations within the region •  Develop links to other LEPs such as Bucks & Thames Valley

£58m already invested by industry partners (below)

£12m investment from the Higher Education Funding Council.

UK based and with significant international connections to China, Korea & Japan

EM3 Board link between 5GIC and China Britain Business Council.


Mobile Subscriber Evolu'on (excluding m2m)

0

1,000,000,000

2,000,000,000

3,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

5,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

7,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

9,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

Q1 2000

Q1 2001

Q1 2002

Q1 2003

Q1 2004

Q1 2005

Q1 2006

Q1 2007

Q1 2008

Q1 2009

Q1 2010

Q1 2011

Q1 2012

Q1 2013

Q1 2014

Q1 2015

Q1 2016

Q1 2017

Q1 2018

Q1 2019

Q1 2020

1G 2G 3G 4G Source: GSMA

3G ~10 years to 1 billion

4G forecast ~ 8 years to 1 billion

2G ~11 years to 1 billion ~ 20 years to peak

Mar ‘16 4G ~ 231M

Mar ‘16 3G ~ 1.2B

Mar ‘16 GSM ~ 2.39B


Mobile Subscriber Evolu'on (excluding m2m) extrapolated to 2030

0

1,000,000,000

2,000,000,000

3,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

5,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

7,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

9,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

Jan-‐00

Dec-‐00

Nov-‐01

Oct-‐02

Sep-‐03

Aug-‐04

Jul-‐0

5

Jun-‐06

May-‐07

Apr-‐08

Mar-‐09

Feb-‐10

Jan-‐11

Dec-‐11

Nov-‐12

Oct-‐13

Sep-‐14

Aug-‐15

Jul-‐1

6

Jun-‐17

May-‐18

Apr-‐19

Mar-‐20

Feb-‐21

Jan-‐22

Dec-‐22

Nov-‐23

Oct-‐24

Sep-‐25

Aug-‐26

Jul-‐2

7

Jun-‐28

May-‐29

Apr-‐30

1G 2G 3G 4G 5G Total Poly.(Total)

Technology Introduc'on Year Peak Year

2G 1991 2012

3G 2001 2022

4G 2007 2028

5G 2018 2039

Assumptions •  Growth rate and profile follow

previous generations •  April 2016 to 2020 GSMA forecasts •  2020 to 2030 Extrapolated scenario

using historical profiles by RTACS ltd.

Source: GSMA and RTACS Ltd.


1G to 5G evolution

1G •  Phone Service. Mobility to Voice Services (analogue)

2G •  Phone Service. Digital GSM + Added Security through Digital encryp'on

2.5G •  Phone Service 2G + limited data. Short Message En'ty + Packet Services

3G •  Phone Services + data + new services and Apps

4G •  Previous G’s plus: Packet Service Only + Higher throughput (Data Centric Architecture)

5G •  Previous G’s plus: Greater Consistency & Flexibility in QoS / QoE, transparent to user. Ultra-‐Dense Connec'vity and Capacity, percep'on of near 100% COVERAGE in all areas

Source: hjp://www.techuk.org/insights/reports/item/6008-‐5g-‐innova'on-‐opportuni'es-‐a-‐discussion-‐paper


5G vision, seamless services with perception of sufficient bandwidth and coverage in any context

Market drivers and use cases for 5G •  Competiveness

  Coverage   Capacity   Business model CAPEX / ARPU   Efficient Spectrum utilisation   Explosive digital growth

o  Businesses o  Services o  Data

•  Internet of Things / Vertical / Tactile   Critical infrastructure   Smart Cities   Health & Social care   Sports & Fitness   Travel

o  Rail o  Automotive o  Planes

•  Safety & Security   Finance / payments   Public safety   Cyber security through design

•  Extreme video   Virtual & Augmented reality   Higher resolution -> SD -> HD -> UHD   Broadcast   On demand Next generation services enabled, abstracted complexity

Any context Dynamic services

Security, Policy & Control

User and/or thing

Foundation for next generation infrastructure


NETWORK INNOVATION (Network of Networks and interworking)

RADIO INNOVATION (including licensed and licence-‐exempt)

Core 5G requirements

Mobile (Cellular) Fixed (Satellite, Broadcast, xDSL, Fibre, Wireless)

Content delivery (CDN – edge /

user)

Core Networks / Management (SDN/NFV)

<1GHz 1-‐6GHz >6GHz

1 1-‐10Gbps connec'ons to end points in the field (i.e. not theore'cal maximum)

5G Radio Access Technology

Access technologies

Content / stored data nodes near to the EDGE and

USERS

Backhaul and core network connec'vity

Leveraging best available exis'ng air interfaces and

evolu'on to 5G RAT

Developing new

technologies and 5G RAT

2 1 millisecond end-‐to-‐end round trip delay (latency)

CROSS NETWORK = 5G DIGITAL FABRIC

Interworking Innova'on enabled through Trials and Test Beds. Including cross boundary Security, Policy, Control, Iden'ty and

Mone'sa'on

MULTIPLE RADIOS = 5G DIGITAL FABRIC Spectrum usage and management innova'on enabled through trials and test beds. Mul'ple networks, bands and/or air interfaces and

control and/or user plane

3 1000x bandwidth per unit area

4 10-‐100x number of connected devices

5 (Percep'on of) 99.999% availability Low capacity, good for control / coverage

Medium Capacity, good for control and user plane

High capacity, good for user

plane 6 (Percep'on of) 100% coverage

7 90% reduc'on in network energy usage MAJOR CHALLENGE -‐ Radical low energy technology evolu'on at mul'ple levels for each area: materials, device,

systems and cross network 8

Up to ten year bajery life for low power, machine-‐type devices

Technology and innovation opportunities

Source: hjp://www.techuk.org/insights/reports/item/6008-‐5g-‐innova'on-‐opportuni'es-‐a-‐discussion-‐paper


HSB 1-‐10Gbps connec'ons to end points in the field (i.e. not theore'cal maximum)

HSB 1000x bandwidth per

unit area

MIoT 10-‐100x number of connected devices

LP Up to ten year bajery life for low power,

machine-‐type devices

LP 90% reduc'on in network

energy usage

CIoT -‐ 1 millisecond end-‐to-‐end round trip

delay (latency)

AC&C (Percep'on of)

99.999% availability

AC&C ALL (Percep'on of)

100% coverage

HSB – High Speed

Broadband

MIoT -‐ Massive IoT

LP -‐ Low power

nodes and networks

CIoT -‐Cri'cal IoT

AC&C – Availability, Capacity & Coverage

5G vision, seamless services with perception of sufficient bandwidth and coverage in any context

Four keys areas: 1.  High Speed Broadband (HSB) 2.  Network Availability, Capacity & Coverage (AC&C) 3.  Massive Internet of Things (MIoT) 4.  Critical Internet of Things (CIoT)

Underpinned by extremely LOW POWER (LP) •  User equipment •  Networks •  Nodes •  Components

Operating seamless across network boundaries •  Public •  Private


Mobile 3G, 4G, 5G

PAN / LAN SRD / WiFi

WAN

Spectrum and Radio Access

Technologies (RAT)

5G & IoT scope – traditional view Market drivers and use cases for 5G •  Competiveness






•  Extreme video   Virtual & Augmented reality   Higher resolution -> SD -> HD -> UHD   Broadcast   On demand


5G & IoT, scope and evolution – Network of Networks Vision

Satellite Broadcast

Mobile 3G, 4G, 5G

PAN / LAN SRD / WiFi

P to P P to MP

xDSL

Fibre

Cable WAN

SoT Core Networks, Inter-‐networking & Backhaul

Fixed Access Technology

Spectrum and Radio Access

Technologies (RAT)

Market drivers and use cases for 5G •  Competiveness






•  Extreme video   Virtual & Augmented reality   Higher resolution -> SD -> HD -> UHD   Broadcast   On demand


Mobile Fixed / Mobile

Transport & Logistics

Business & Financial Services

Health & Social Care

Retail / Logistics

Digital Creativity & Information

Services

Verticals – 5G technology pull, network of networks

5G Smart Living

Rural, sub-urban, urban

Public & Private Portal

Government – national

and regional

Cyber - Security by design

Standards

1.  High Speed Broadband (HSB) 2.  Network Availability, Capacity & Coverage (AC&C) 3.  Massive Internet of Things (MIoT) 4.  Critical Internet of Things (CIoT)

5G RADIO

5G FABRIC

5G CORE

£ $ € ¥ M2M THINGS


Network of Networks – Design for collaboration across boundaries

13

Next generaWon networks recognising that borders exist.

•  Mul'ple network owners

•  Internet ‘not fit for purpose’ in next genera'on digital world

•  Market Place & Digital Fabric -‐ People and services must seamlessly connect with:

  Context awareness

  CoS

  QoE

  QoS (priori'sa'on)

  Security

  Payment across chain

Applica'ons

Core Radio

Applica'ons

Core

Radio

Applica'ons

Core

Radio

Applica'ons

Core

Radio

Applica'ons

Core

Radio

Applica'ons

Core

Radio

Applica'ons

Core

Applica'ons

Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only Stuart Revell, 5G Huddle 26th April 2016 14

Applica'ons

Core Radio

Applica'ons

Core

Radio

Applica'ons

Core

Radio

Applica'ons

Core

Radio

Applica'ons

Core

Radio

Applica'ons

Core

Applica'ons

Radio

Applica'ons

Core

INTERNET / BEST EFFORT ‘NOT FIT FOR PURPOSE’

Next generaWon networks recognising that borders exist.

•  Mul'ple network owners

•  Internet ‘not fit for purpose’ in next genera'on digital world

•  Market Place & Digital Fabric -‐ People and services must seamlessly connect with:

  Context awareness

  CoS

  QoE

  QoS (priori'sa'on)

  Security

  Payment across chain

Network of Networks – Design for collaboration across boundaries


Applica'ons

Core

Radio

Applica'ons

Core

5G & IoT Digital Fabric - Design for collaboration across boundaries

Radio

Applica'ons

Core

Radio

Applica'ons

Core

Radio

Applica'ons

Core

Radio

Applica'ons

Core

Applica'ons

Radio

Applica'ons

Core

Business & Users

Network 1

Network 2

Network 3

Network ……….

Market Place

5G & IoT Digital Fabric

HSB 1-‐10Gbps connec'ons to end points in the field (i.e. not theore'cal maximum)

HSB 1000x bandwidth per

unit area

MIoT 10-‐100x number of connected devices

LP Up to ten year bajery life for low power,

machine-‐type devices

LP 90% reduc'on in network

energy usage

CIoT -‐ 1 millisecond end-‐to-‐end round trip

delay (latency)

AC&C (Percep'on of)

99.999% availability

AC&C ALL (Percep'on of)

100% coverage

HSB – High Speed

Broadband

MIoT -‐ Massive IoT

LP -‐ Low power

nodes and networks

CIoT -‐Cri'cal IoT

AC&C – Availability, Capacity & Coverage


Discussion points

5G Radio Access Technologies Non 5G Radio evoluWon and usage Co-‐existence and interference Spectrum

Core Network EvoluWon Leveraging, connecWng and evolving all ICT assets 5G RAT ready, previous G’s and other Air Interfaces

Network of Networks •  Operator to Operator •  Operator(s) to VerWcal(s)

Digital Fabric (Technology) Digital Market Place (Commercial)

5G

RADIO

5G FABRIC

5G

CORE


Mobile Subscriber Evolu'on (excluding m2m) extrapolated to 2030

0

1,000,000,000

2,000,000,000

3,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

5,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

7,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

9,000,000,000

10,000,000,000

Jan-‐00

Aug-‐00

Mar-‐01

Oct-‐01

May-‐02

Dec-‐02

Jul-‐0

3

Feb-‐04

Sep-‐04

Apr-‐05

Nov-‐05

Jun-‐06

Jan-‐07

Aug-‐07

Mar-‐08

Oct-‐08

May-‐09

Dec-‐09

Jul-‐1

0

Feb-‐11

Sep-‐11

Apr-‐12

Nov-‐12

Jun-‐13

Jan-‐14

Aug-‐14

Mar-‐15

Oct-‐15

May-‐16

Dec-‐16

Jul-‐1

7

Feb-‐18

Sep-‐18

Apr-‐19

Nov-‐19

Jun-‐20

Jan-‐21

Aug-‐21

Mar-‐22

Oct-‐22

May-‐23

Dec-‐23

Jul-‐2

4

Feb-‐25

Sep-‐25

Apr-‐26

Nov-‐26

Jun-‐27

Jan-‐28

Aug-‐28

Mar-‐29

Oct-‐29

May-‐30

Dec-‐30

1G 2G 3G 4G 5G Total Poly.(Total) Source: GSMA and RTACS Ltd.

5G

RADIO

5G

CORE

5G FABRIC


Agenda

13:30 – 13:50 Presentation: From previous generations to 5G: An integrated and robust IoT platform Stuart Revell, 5G Innovation Centre, University of Surrey

13:50 – 14:10 Presentation: Next Generation Internet Protocols: 5G & the Internet, finding the best path together Andy Sutton, Principal Network Architect, BT UK

14:10 – 14:30 Presentation: Toward 5G Deployment in 2020 and Beyond Takehiro Nakamura, VP and Managing Director of 5G Laboratory, NTT DOCOMO, Inc.

14:30 – 15:45 Panel Discussion: Delivering a sustainable and long-term 5G future •  Bernard Barani, Deputy Head of Unit, Dir E, Network Technologies, European Commission •  Ruy Pinto, Group Chief Operations Officer, Inmarsat plc (on behalf of ESOA) •  Mike Short, Vice President, Telefónica Europe •  Bashir Gwandu, Chairman, Commonwealth ITU Group

13:30 – 15:45 Moderator: Stuart Revell, 5G Innovation Centre, University of Surrey Session 3: Plotting the path to 2020 and beyond

Confiden'al – for 5GIC Members Only 19

For more information please contact:

Stuart Revell [email protected] (M) +44 7836 512787

… any Questions?

Documents

Stuart Revell - Welcome to Forum Europe EMS Revell... · 2019 Q1 2020 Source:*GSMA* 1G 2G 3G 4G ... Next generation services enabled, ... Mobile* 3G,4G, 5G PAN/* LAN* SRD*/* WiFi*

Stuart Revell - Welcome to Forum Europe EMS Revell... · 2019 Q1 2020 Source:GSMA 1G 2G 3G 4G ... Next generation services enabled, ... Mobile* 3G,4G, 5G PAN/* LAN* SRD/ WiFi*