Striving for Environmental Excellence by Controlling Future Brownfields

in Africa Specifically for Ethiopia:

A Grey-Incidence Decision-Making Approach

• Mikiale Gebreslase

• PhD(System Engineering)

Switzerland, Geneva

April 13, 2018

Introduction

Methodology

Management Framework for

Brownfields In Ethiopia

Basic Concept of Grey-Incidence

Decision-Making Approach

Applicationn of Grey-Incidence

Decision-Making to Control

Brownfields In Ethiopia

Conclusion, Practical

Implications And Future Work

Abstract

Introduction About Brownfield

Brownfield:

Under-used industrial or commercial area that

has been abandoned because of suspected

environmental contaminations (United States

Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), 2002).

Contaminants can pollute water, air, and/or

soil.

o With rapid industrialization & urbanization,

developing countries are facing two urban

development challenges, Namely:-

1. How to treat increasing environmental

pollution from previous industrial activities ?

2. How to respond to the ongoing industrial

activities?

Abstract

Purpose: Increasing Africans population and economic growth leading to urbanizations

continues to increase the need to redevelop brownfields as a strategy of encouraging sustainable

development of cities in particular to Ethiopia.

• In 21st century most of African countries adopts industry led economy to support an ever

increasing population growth and urbanization which will involves using large volume and

types of hazardous chemicals. Accidental spills and damping of these chemicals leads to

environmental contaminations and subsequently to brownfields.

• This research reviewed key dimensions of brownfield definition in developed countries and

recommend a consensus-based pioneer brownfield definition and propose brownfield

redevelopment guidelines to Ethiopia. In addition, the research highlights the framework

based on grey-incidence decision-making approach to manage brownfields in African

countries by taking Ethiopia as case example. The grey incidence decision-making model

integrates multiple factors such as economic, social, environmental, technical and associated

risk and provides an effective decision making and management tool for environmental

practitioners and government agencies.

Cont...

Design/methodology/approach: Questionnaires were used to collect data on terms and

definitions of brownfield. The questions were prepared on the basis of currently used definitions

developed by a number of developed countries. Moreover, this study utilizes grey incidence

decision-making approach to help in management and making decision making for the

implementation of brownfield redevelopment project in the remediated sites.

Findings: Standard definition of brownfield and essential guidelines for brownfield

redevelopment is proposed for Ethiopian context. The grey incidence decision-making approach is

applied for the evaluation of brownfield redevelopment project in the remediates sites. The

research findings were tested and verified using literature data and survey from major

stakeholders. In addition, a research framework is proposed to control future brownfields for

African countries by taking Ethiopia as case example.

Cont...

Originality/value: This research stresses the significance of urban structure to address

sustainable development and the need to consider redevelopment of brownfields and

identify the potential for specific government policy framework. In addition, the research

recommend brownfield redevelopment support from international development programs.

The new research provides the best opportunity for Ethiopia and Africa at large:

To devise urban land policy and create a strategy to contribute social, economic,

financial and environmental benefits;

provide foundation to solve environmental issues by involving all major stakeholders

including community citizens, municipalities, environmentalists , government agencies and

policy makers; and

Serve as guidelines to transform Brownfields into Greenfields(Useful land).

Focusing on the vision of striving for excellence and developing smart cities, the concrete

application of study framework to manage brownfield problems will help to remove

hazardous substances and improve the quality of life. Fair participation of all stakeholders

and learning from the lessons of developed countries, and improved urban infrastructure

will help Ethiopia and Africa at large.

Introduction

brownfield problems are capturing deepening concentration of government policy

makers, real estate developers, investors, and researchers. The suspected contaminated

brownfield sites in the United States are in 500,000-600,000 (Simons, 1998) and in

Germany around 362,000 (National Round Table on the Environment the Economy,

2003).

Unlike in the industrialized world, the concept of Brownfield is not widely recognized in

African continent as a whole and particularly in Ethiopia. On the top of that The problem

of brownfields did not get recognition in public and it is still at infancy stage. And these

environmental issues are creating hurdles to achieve environmental excellence in Ethiopia.

Having No proper definition of brownfield in Ethiopia context to implementing

brownfield redevelopment projects is major issue that needs to be resolved as well. On

the top of that, there is No related literature. And it is important to depend merely on

the international literature.

Cont...

Countless benefits of brownfield redevelopment for the sustainable development make its

significant in the eyes of developing countries. Described the major benefits of brownfield

redevelopment including social, environmental, economics, improved quality life around

the community, minimization of health threats by removing the hazardous waste materials,

transformation of Brownfields into Greenfields in the congested urban areas, housing

facilities, employment opportunities in the surroundings and neighborhood, payment of

taxes and duties to government (C. A. De Sousa, 2006; Greenberg et al., 2001).

Thus, brownfield redevelopment is capturing more attention in Ethiopia due to the

implementation of the new environmental policy and the green economic strategies. And

increasing population growth and economic development in Ethiopia, the significant role

of brownfield redevelopment will be investigated as a strategy of encouraging

sustainable development in Ethiopian cities.

Ethiopia is growing significantly in Africa. And Africa’s degree of urbanization

(percentage of urban population in total population) by continent in 2017 is 41 percent.

Thus, Ethiopia’s urban growth rate in 2017 is 20.2 percent. Although, this is not the

highest growth rate in the continent. But it’s greater than the least developing nations in

the African continent. These all indicators are showing on (worldometers, 2017).

o This leads Us to be the conclusions that:

Firstly: rapid Urbanization in Ethiopia has resulted increasing the effect of Urban land.

On the top of that Ethiopia is the second most populated nation in Africa, (African

Countries by population ,2017). And during 2017 Ethiopia population is projected to

increase by 2,611,092 people and reach 105,816,316 in the beginning of 2018.

Cont...

Secondly: Ethiopia is striving to be the hub of light manufacturing industries in

Africa, placing an ambitious plan to develop world class industrial parks with

fascinating hard and soft infrastructure. The strategic plan provides the overall

framework in terms of the industrialization vision, goal, strategies and programs

that need to be implemented in the coming years as to support the country’s

progress towards becoming a middle-income country by the year 2025. (Ethiopian

Industrial Park Development Corporation, 2015).

This shows that, Increasing Ethiopian population and economic growths leading to

urbanizations continues to increase the need to redevelop brownfields as a strategy

of encouraging sustainable development of cities in particular to Ethiopia.

Cont...

Methodology

Plentiful international literature was reviewed to create a foundation for defining brownfield in Ethiopian context.

However, there is no consensus based universal definition of brownfield and every country has own definition and

parameters of brownfield.

Country Source Definition USA (USEPA, 2002) Abandoned, idled, or under-used industrial and commercial facilities where expansion or redevelopment

is complicated by real or perceived environmental contamination

Canada De Sousa (2002)(C. A. De Sousa,

2002) Abandoned, idle or underused commercial or industrial sites where previous activities have caused

environmental contamination, but where there is an active potential for redevelopment

Europe Ferber, Grimski, Millar, & Nathanail

(2006) Currently derelict or underused sites which have been affected by former uses of the site or surrounding

land; they are mainly located in fully or partly developed urban areas and may have real or perceived

contamination problems thus require intervention to bring them back to beneficial use

UK POST (1998) (POST, 1998) Brownfield sites are buildings and land either now vacant or that could become vacant or suitable for

development, during a relevant [development]plan period

France Darmendrail (1999) A space that has been temporarily abandoned following the cessation of activity (agricultural,

protoindustrial, service, processing, military defense, storage or transport) and that needs to be

reclaimed for a future use

Germany Freier (1998) Abandoned pieces of land, mainly in inner cities, which are often blocked for economic development due

to their ecological and economic risks

Australia Plater- Zyberk, (1998) A brownfield site is one which has been urbanized or used industrially, subsequently vacated and

available for re-urbanization

South Africa L. Potts and Cloete (2012) A brownfield site is infill land or premises where remedial action is required prior to redevelopment. It

may also be vacant, derelict or contaminated. No specific land use is attributed

Cont...

Questionnaires were used to collect data on terms and definitions of brownfield. The

questions were prepared on the basis of currently used definitions developed by a

number of developed countries.

A survey based questionnaire consisting of two parts was developed to gather

information.

The first part was about different elements of brownfields that can be a part of Pioneer

definition of brownfield in Ethiopian context. Definitions developed by different countries

were considered as base and different elements of brownfield (e.g. vacant, derelict,

contaminated, underused etc.) were included in the final questionnaire. Sample questions

related to definition of brownfield redevelopment are: (e.g. brownfield is a location or

land vacant for development).

The second part includes the questions related to evaluation of brownfield, this study got

support from the research of (Hou et al.,2014) including social economic and ecological

benefits of brownfield redevelopment and (Zhu et al., 2015) including health benefits,

brownfield development policy, financial, public welfare policy.

Cont...

Data was collected during the time period of July-December 2015. It took three months

to collect data with the help of 10 key members helping in data collection. Master level

students from three key universities of Ethiopia named Addis Ababa University, Mekelle

University, Awassa University were hired for the collection of data. A nominal

remuneration was given to them for keeping the ethical consideration of the research.

Questioners were sent out to relevant stakeholders as mentioned above. From the 300

questionnaires that were sent out, only 221 completed questionnaires were received

back and 79 respondents declined to completed questionnaire as they were not aware

of the term “brownfield” and were not in a position to complete the questionnaire.

This lead to be the conclusion that the above survey assisted us to extract the elements of

brownfield definitions based on (Potts et al., 2012) and judgments of different

stakeholders in Ethiopia as shown below in Figure 1:

Proposed definition of Brownfields for Ethiopian context:

Cont...

“A brownfield site is a land located in urban area where remedial action is required to

development or redevelopment. It could be vacant, derelict or contaminated; Regardless

of the quality of the land use.”

Figure 1. Elements of brownfield definitions

Proposed guidelines for brownfield redevelopment in Ethiopia

o Environmental risks

o Public welfare risks

o Healthy risks and so forth.

Brownfield redevelopment is at rising stage in Africa particularly in Ethiopia and it is important to depend

merely on the international literature. For that very reason, the following guidelines are proposed:

In order to achieve environmental excellence by controlling future brownfields in Africa as a whole and

particularly in Ethiopia, it is necessary to propose a common definition for the so called “brownfield “.and

the proposed brownfield definition based on the Ethiopian context should be accepted and assimilate into

Ethiopian National Environmental Policy for standard use.

The Environmental Policy of Ethiopia should update its policy and legislation in order to assimilate a

relevant policy on brownfield redevelopment .and the concerned bodies must set out brownfield

redevelopment as a priority to achieve environmental excellence.

The government of the federal democratic republic of Ethiopia should place a high premium on the

environmental excellence by controlling future brownfields. There should be risk assessment for brownfield

redevelopment and Identifying the possible risks that might be associated with brownfield sites could assist

to set out a strategy to control future brownfield problems. Risks associated with brownfield sits could be:

Cont...

Brownfield redevelopment projects contribute a lot to the Sustainable development goals. So

as to setup excellent brownfield redevelopment planning, the following elements are critical to

include in the brownfield redevelopment planning database:

o Identifying the Site circumstances. For example Site size, location and

boundaries.

o Identifying the circumstances of Land from different angles. For instance

previously land use, proposed future redevelopment planning options and its

ownership.

o Identifying types of contaminations. For example groundwater contamination,

soil contamination, and Air contamination.

o Evaluating the potential cost of remediation and its geotechnical circumstances

Cont...

In the present circumstance governments are facing financial deficits, and identifying

potentials stakeholders and supporting Public, Private, and Partnership for brownfield

restoration projects are the icing on the cake. Above and beyond that, allowing public

participation and preparing conference will add values to achieve environmental excellence

by controlling brownfields in Ethiopia and Africa at large. And its advantage is infinitely

greater than grateful. Such as:

o Satisfy community health concern

o Making economically viable for sites with poor ground conditions

o Minimize overall environmental damage

o Restore the land as a contributing element of the local ecosystem

o Prevent future contamination.

Management Framework for Brownfields in Ethiopia

Ethiopia is growing significantly and it can be guessed with the report of International Monetary Fund (IMF) as

shown below in Figure 2. And this financial institution ranked this nation in the list of top five fastest growing

economies in the world. The growth can be seen from the last decade and it is growing by 8.3 percent

continuously (Gray, A. 2017).

Figure 2. Ethiopian Progress and its future brownfield Challenges

Cont...

Figure 3. Evaluating Project-Using A Research Framework for Controlling Future Brownfield

Basic Concepts of Grey-Incidence Decision-Making Approach

Grey system theory and application is well studied and applied around the globe in

different disciplines. Over the past 30 years, it has been famous theory in the area of

artificial intelligent as a result it has been attracted a wide ranges of researchers from

the four corners of the world(Camelia Delcea et al., 2012).

Remarkable projects have been completed successfully with grey system theory. To

mention some of them, regional economic planning for several provinces in china, to

analyze agricultural economy in china, to forecast yields of grain for some provinces in

china and to build a diagnosis model available for medicine ,to estimate the economic

effect. (Sifeng Li, et al., 2012).

This lead to be the conclusion that grey-incidence decision making approach is selected

because, it is convenient approach to utilize regardless of the sample size. On the top

of that, the amount of computation assimilate is small and can be succeeded classically

without the difficulty between quantitative and qualitative conclusions (Mikiale

Gebreslase et al., 2016).

Cont...

is called imagined optimum effect vector, and

Definition 1. Let and are two sequences having the same length, (Ke Zhang et al., 2012) represented

as: iM jM

n

0

i i

1

x M dt n

0

j j

1

x M dt n

0 0

i j i j

1

x x (M M )dt

Then: is known as Absolute Degree Of Grey Incidence

0

iM 0

jMbetween and

Let ij i j i jX {X (a ,b ) | a A,b B} is a set of situations, and )x(

ji

)2(

ji

)1(

jii 00000000,,, ZZZZ j is the Optimum

effect vector. If the situations corresponding to00i jZ , fulfills xZ j 00i

, then 00i jZ is called imagined

optimum effect vector, and 0 0i jX is called imagined optimum situation, (Sifeng Liu et al., 2010).

Cont...

Cont...

Grey-Incidence Decision-Making Steps:

Step 1: Step 1: Determine the set of events as1 2 nA {a ,a ,...,a }, and set of countermeasures as

1 2 mB {b ,b ,...,b }. respectively. Following this, build the set of situations as:

ij i j i jX {X (a , b ) | a A, b B}.

Step 2: select the Plans as 1,2,..., x, for decision making.

Step 3: calculate the effect values (k)

ijZ , for individual situations

ijX , for i 1,2,...,n, and j 1,2,...,m. with respect to Plan k : (k) (k) (k) (k) (k) (k) (k) (k) (k)

ij 11 12 1m 21 22 2m n1 n2 nmZ (Z ,Z ,...Z ;Z ,Z ,...Z ;...;Z ,Z ,...Z ); 1,2,..., .k x

Cont...

Step 4: calculate the average image of the situation effect sequence (k)Z , with respect to aim k ,

which is: (k) (k) (k) (k) (k) (k) (k) (k) (k)

ij 11 12 1m 21 22 2m n1 n2 nmZ (Z ,Z ,...Z ;Z ,Z ,...Z ;...;Z ,Z ,...Z ); 1,2,..., .k x

Step 5: according to the result of step 4, the effect vector is expressed as: (1) (2) (x)

ij ij ij ijZ {Z ,Z ,...,Z }, of

the situations ijX , for i 1,2,...,n, j 1,2,...,m.

Step 6: calculate the imagined optimum effect vector as:

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

(1) (2) (x)

i j i j i j i jZ {Z , Z ,..., Z }.

Step 7: calculate the absolute degree incidence ,ij from Z

ij

And Z ,i j0 0for, i 1,2,...,n, j 1,2,...,m.

Step 8: finally, from 1 1ij i j

1 i n,1 j mmax { } ,

the quasi-Optimum effect vector Z ,i j1 1

and the quasi-

Optimum situation Xi j1 1are obtained.

Application of Grey-Incidence Decision Making

To Control Brownfields in Ethiopia

Numerical Example:

A hypothetical scenario was developed in order to apply grey-incidence decision making

approach to control brownfield issue in Ethiopia. Assuming that, the government intends to

clean up a brownfield site and after the remediation of the contaminated site the

government has to select the best development proposal from three planning options. Such

as: b1) Industrial park planning, b2) Commercial center planning, and b3) Real estate

planning.

The decision process starts from an overview of the situation, from which three alternatives,

b1, b2, and b3 are identified for further evaluation. Next, the government employs the

evaluation index system derived completely from literature review as shown in the Table 1,

(Zhu, el at., 2015). Relevant stakeholders evaluate each alternative based on their own skills

by filling questionnaires. The values from the questionnaires then used as the input to a grey

incidence analysis, which computes the absolute degrees of grey incidence and this example

is used to demonstrate the proposed approach.

Cont...

Cont... Table 1: Comprehensive evaluation index for Brownfield Redevelopment Project

Factor Purposes Development Planning Options b1 b2 b3

Environmental and Health Benefits Improvement of the quality of groundwater 75 85 77 Improvement of soil quality 70 82 60 Improvement of air quality 78 84 65 Lowering the health risk of local residents 80 89 68 Increase of green cover percentage 77 87 85 Improvement of remediation technologies 75 80 90 Financial Payback period(PP) 5 7 4 Return on investment(ROI) 21 30 17 Total cost of brownfield remediation and construction 1500 2700 2100 Ratio of brownfield remediation cost to total cost 15 27 18 Net present value(NPV) 2580 3500 2600 Brownfield Location of brownfield 75 85 80 Status of infrastructure facilities of brownfield area 85 82 90 Transportation convenience of brownfield area 80 88 90 Size of brownfield 55 80 85 Societal Stability Increase local employment rate 90 92 75 Increase local tax base 85 90 72 Improvement of local security status 80 75 88 Policy and Technical Protecting and recycling the land/soil resource 75 90 75 Influence from other contamination hazards nearby 60 65 60 Easing the pressure on green land development 60 90 85 Performance Matchup with city planning 70 85 80 Improvement of image of local community & government 70 80 85 Increase land value of neighborhood 75 70 85

Cont...

₰21: We used the software so called “Grey System Theory Modeling Software 6.0

(GTMS6.0)” to get the following results:

Conclusion, Practical Implications and Future Research

The research indicates that very little understanding of brownfield redevelopment exists

with the relevant stakeholders and no common definition exist for brownfield within the

context of Ethiopia.

The research did however contribute that a suitable definition of brownfield that can be

used in the Ethiopian context has been proposed.

In order to deal with the health, environmental and public welfare risks associated with

brownfield sites, it is convenient to design a framework so as to guide the theoretical and

practical applications of brownfield redevelopment, which constitutes the main purpose of

this study.

Under the umbrella of grey incidence decision making model and with the consideration

of multiple-stakeholders, tight environmental and economic constraints, the proposed

research framework integrates different criteria from economic, social, environmental,

technical and risk aspects in to grey incidence decision making model and gives a useful

guidance to control future brownfields in African continent particularly in Ethiopia.

Cont...

Moreover, this research has a significant opportunity for African governments in following ways:

o Firstly, this study will be helpful for African countries to utilize the urban land effectively, long

term improvement in environmental quality, public and economic health. It will also be

supportive to devise a strategy for employment, housing, taxation and environmental policy.

o Secondly, identify the potential for specific government policy frameworks for brownfield

redevelopment to reduce city carbon emissions.

o Third, recommend that government departments consider the coordinated facilitation of

brownfield redevelopment.

o Lastly, recommend brownfield redevelopment support from international development

programs.

Extracting the possible barriers of brownfield redevelopment, risk assessment using project life

cycle, building up comprehensive evaluation index system for brownfield redevelopment project

within the context of Africa’s situation, and evaluating brownfield redevelopment project using

Grey system theory can be potential work in the future.