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Strathcona County Update March 2012
“The New Numbers”
Gerry GabinetJordan RumohrRandy RichardsEconomic Development & TourismStrathcona County
Agenda
Stats Canada Update
Housing Update
Retail Market Update
Industrial Market Updates
NE Anthony Henday Plans
Alberta Industrial Heartland Updates
Summary
Stats Canada Update Feb. 2012
Canada 5.9%
Alberta 10.8%
Edmonton 11.2%
Calgary 10.9%
Strathcona 12.1%
Edmonton CMA 11.8%
Calgary CMA 12.9%
Strathcona 92,490
Sherwood Park 64,733
Rural 27,757
Growth 9,979
Urban 13.9%
Rural 8.2%
Total 12.1%
Since 2006
Yellowhead County
Lethbridge County
Quick Alberta Facts
Trade with U.S. from Alberta is $1.0 trillion per year
BRIC Trade in U.S.
Trade with Alberta is greater than U.S. trade with India
Trade with Alberta is twice as much as U.S. trade with Russia
Trade with Alberta is greater than U.S trade with Brazil
Total Building Permit ValuesTotal Building Permit Values to December 31
-
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
900,000,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Average 4Year
Year
Valu
es
4 Year Avg. 6 Year Avg.
Total Housing Unit StartsTotal Housing Unit Starts to December 31
329
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Average 4Year
Year
Star
ts
4 Year Avg. 6 Year Avg.
January 7, 201016
Residential Construction Activity
Sherwood Park Residential Construction Activity Year to Year Comparison to November 30th,2011
241
136
389
61
35
393
490
434
152
329
215
70
29
396
186
295
376
226
133
219
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Single Family Starts
Multi Family Starts
Single Family Completions
Multi Family Completions
Single Family Under Construction
Multi Family Under Construction
SFD Complete and Unabsorbed
Multi Complete and Unabsorbed
SFD Absorbed
Multi Absorbed
Number of Units
2010
2011
Average Apartment \ Townhouse Rent
Greater Edmonton Average Rents Apartments and Townhomes
927
985
1024
921
1051
943
1023
987
949
1075
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
Downto
wn
West End
Souths
ide
North S
ide
St. Albe
rt
Fort.Sas
k
Ledu
cSpru
ce G
rove
Stony P
lain
Strathc
ona C
ounty
Location
Avg
. Mon
thly
Ren
t
2010
2011
Residential Rental Vacancy Rates
Residential Rental Vacancy Rates
3.23.7
1.3
4.7
0.4
12.8
1.3
2.4
8.1
2.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Downto
wn
West
End
Souths
ide
North
Side
St. Albe
rt
Fort.S
ask
Ledu
cSpr
uce G
rove
Stony P
lain
Strathc
ona C
ounty
Location
Vaca
ncy
%
2010
2011
Edmonton Suburban Rental Market Edmonton Suburban Rental Universe
651 607
869790
401 385
83284
180
70
34
234
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
St. Albert Fort.Sask Leduc Spruce Grove Stony Plain StrathconaCounty
Location
Num
ber o
f Uni
ts
Tow nhomes
Apt. Suites
>300k, 14
300,000 to 399,999, 19
500,000 to 599,999, 72
600,000 to 699,999, 30
>700000, 43
400,000 to 499,999, 111
2010 2011Bungalow 42 48Split Level 14 30Two Storey 213 207Other 5 4
New Home Sales
Lakeland Drive
90 room Best Western Hotel starting construction East of Millenium Ridge
New office complex under construction in Pallisades
Gas Bar under consideration, details in progress
Residential subdivision east of Sherwood Drive
Confirmed Retail Emerald
Golf Town
Visions
Bed Bath Beyond
Winners
Super Wal Mart
Bouclair
Petsmart
Dollarama
Liquor Depot
Tony Romas
Existing Wal-mart on Wye
It will remain
It will get an internal and external upgrade
No expansions have been proposed
Permits issued
LUBEX on Ordze and Wye
Sherwood Park Mall
Zellers to convert to TARGET
Present timeline by TARGET is spring 2013
Conversion \ construction period starts late Q4-2012
All Alberta stores to open the same day
Construction Schedule
Fit-Out starts Fall 2011
Estimated completion, turnover late 2012, projected opening 2013
Hospital is (LEED) Silver Certification
NE Anthony Henday Planning• Eight interchanges
• Nine Flyovers
• Two River Structures
• 47 Total Bridge Structures
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
/Day
Non upg
raded
bitumen
Synthetic C
rude
Oil (SCO)
Pentanes plusHeavy
Light‐medium
Future Oil Production
Upgrading Project Estimates
Estimates on additions to upgrading capacity are based on the following assumptions regarding new projects or expansions to existing projects by 2030.
New Upgraders
North West Upgrading 150,000 bbl/day (new)
Voyageur 200,000 bbl/day (new)
Expansions/Debottlenecking (*)
Syncrude 100,000 bbl/day
Suncor 100,000 bbl/day
CNRL 100,000 bbl/day
Shell Scotford 85,000 bbl/day
Nexen/OPTI 50,000 bbl/day
(*) Notes increase in upgrading capacity beyond existing levels
Oil Sands SAGD Facts
Initial Investment=$2.27 Billion
Name Plate capacity=62,000 bdp
Construction phase= 3 years
Construction employment=1,375 persons
First year operation=2012
Operation ramp up =20%,50%, 75%, 90%
Operation employment=125 persons
Operational phase=30 years
Sustaining capital=$38 million per year
Cumulative royalties=$21.1 billion
Corporate taxes paid=$8.52 billionSource CERI Study 2011
Oilsands Mining and Extraction Project
Initial Investment=$7.98 billion
Capacity 100,000 bpd
Construction phase 3-4 years
Construction manpower 3,800
Operational manpower 600
Operational phase= 30 years
Sustaining capital=$269 million per year
Cumulative royalties=$32.8 billion
Corporate taxes paid=$10.7 billionSource: Ceri Study 2011
Oilsands Upgrader/Refinery
Initial Investment $5 Billion (100,000bpd) $15 Billion for three phases
Capacity 100,000 bpd
Construction phase 2.5-3 years phase 1
Construction employment 8,000 phase 1
Operational employment 250
Operational life initial 30 years
Operating cost $x/barrel of production
World Economic Trends
1. Eurozone problems need to be addressed2. Commodities Super cycle is back3. Currency war rages4. Global Monetary Policy gap to remain.5. Deficit and debt cutting.
“There's a fundamental truth that everyone has to understand: what the government spends, the public will pay for sooner or later, whether in
taxes or inflation or having their debt defaulted on”
Nobel Economist -Thomas Sargent
Conclusion
1. Strong growth in Alberta for 2012 3.5% - In Strathcona County estimate of 3.0%
2. Price of oil in $95-$100 USD3. Housing starts of 3504. Average house price $425,0005. New retail market growth of over 300,000
sq.ft6. Labor shortage for first half 2012
“Maintain a firm grasp of the obvious at all times”
Jeff Bezos - Amazon
For more information, please contact:
Gerry Gabinet, Director Economic Development & Tourism [email protected]
Randy Richards, Manager Commercial Development [email protected]
Jordan Rumohr, Manager Industrial Development [email protected]
Sources of Information:
Chamber, EDT, Corporate Planning
RBC, Scotia Bank, ATB, CIBC, BMO, Servus, TD Canada Trust, City of Calgary, Wells Fargo Economics, ATB Economics, Alberta Industrial Heartland, Government of Alberta Treasury and Enterprise, US Consulate General Office, ESNA, CERI
Conference Board of Canada, CMHC, Colliers, Cushman Wakefield, Trans America, Strathcona Commercial, Corporate Planning, Lorenz Team, ERB, RPC, EEDC
All of the EDT Team including: Rhonda Deighton, Marcy Fischer, Noreen Robertson, Tyler Westover, Michael Liu
Thank you for your attention!