Strategies for achieving sustainable climate goals · Nakicenovic 2013 #13 Energy Access . Energy Security . Climate Change The Key Energy Challenges Air Pollution ... Pachauri et

Strategies for achieving sustainable climate goals

ALPS International Symposium, Moving toward Sustainable Climate Change Actions, hosted by Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) at the Technology International Forum, Tokyo – 4 February 2014

Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director General International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor of Energy Economics Vienna University of Technology

2013 #2 Nakicenovic

Two Faces of the Athropocene

Astronaut Sunita Williams

2013 #3 Nakicenovic

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Poun

ds (2

000

£)/ m

lum

en-h

ours

Gaslight

Kerosene - light

Electric - light

0

50

100

150

200

250

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950

Trill

ion

lum

en-h

ours

Electric - light

Gaslight

Price

Energy service

The Example of Lighting

0

50

100

150

200

250

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950

Trill

ion

lum

en-h

ours

Electric - light

Gaslight

United Kingdom

Source: Fouguet and Pearson, 2003

2013 #4 Nakicenovic

2012 26 August

2012

NASA, 2012

2013 #5 Nakicenovic

2013 #6 Nakicenovic

2013 #7 Nakicenovic

Major Challenges of Anthropocene The industrial revolution led to unprecedented

levels of affluence and production, but also inequity; The unintended consequences demonstrate

significant impacts on our social and natural environments transcending planetary boundaries; Overcoming these formidable global challenges

requires a fundamental transformation toward a sustainable future.

2013 #8 Nakicenovic

Global CO2 Emissions

2013 #9 Nakicenovic


2013 #10 Nakicenovic



www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

GEA, 2012


www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org

● Total Effort: 300 Authors; 200 Reviewers > 6 years >> 6m € and >> 100 p-years ● # of Reviewer comments: >6000 ● # of Language Editors:15 ● # of Copy Editors:15 ● # of Figures: ~ 650 ● # of Tables: ~ 380 ● # of References: >7000

● # of Pages (Published): ~1864 Pages ● Single volume of 5.5 kg


Energy Access

Energy Security

Climate Change

The Key Energy Challenges

Air Pollution Health Impacts


Source: Modi, 2011

Mobile Phones Charging


Source: Modi, 2011 and Yumkella, 2013

Wood for Cooking


1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Percentage of total population with electricity access

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

USA

Mexico

Brazil

India

South Africa

China

Baseline

Baseline

SE4All

SE4All

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia USA Rural

Percentage of rural population with electricity access

Electrification

Source: Pachauri et al, 2012

2013 #17 Nakicenovic 14

Present Atmosphere

~800 PgC

Preidustrial Atmosphere

~530 PgC

Coal ~ 10,000 PgC

Biomass ~430-460

PgC

N. Gas

~190–240 PgC

Oil ~180–280

PgC

Unconv. Oil ~300-400

PgC

Unconventional

Gas ~900-2900 PgC

Gas Hydrates ~28,000

PgC

Historcial Emissions ~500 PgC

~500 PgC

Cumulative Emissions for 2oC

Stabilzaiton

Carbon Storage Potential ~400-1500 PgC

Source: GEA, 2012

2013 #18 Nakicenovic Brine Treatment Plant – Conemaugh River

2013 #20 Nakicenovic UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

2030 Energy Goal

● Universal Access to Modern Energy

● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement

● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy

Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

2013 #21 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Mikrochip Kommerzielle

Luftfahrt

Fernseher

Vakuumröhre Ottomotor

Elektrischer Motor

Dampf-maschine

Nuklear- energie

Biomass

Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Global Primary Energy

Other renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass

2013 #22 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030

Nuclear phase-out (policy)

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Einsparungen

Andere E

Nuklear

Gas

Öl

Kohle

Biomasse

Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear

Savings

Other renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Biomass

Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil

Gas

~55% renewables by 2030

2013 #23 Nakicenovic 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Savings

Other renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Limited Intermittent REN

Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS – negative CO2

Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS

Global Primary Energy

lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN

Biomass

Coal

Renewables Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~40% improvement by 2030

~30% renewables by 2030


1850 1900 1950 2000

Global CO2 emissions (PgC)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30



1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Global CO2 emissions (PgC)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 IPCC Category I

RPC 8.5

RPC 6.0

RPC 4.5

RPC 2.6

GEA (SE4ALL)


RCP 8.5

RCP 4.5

RCP 6.0

RCP 2.6

Peak by 2020

reductions of 35-75% by 2050

almost zero or negative in the long term


Global Mean Surface Temperature

Source: IPCC WGI, 2013


Cumulative Emissions & Temperature

Source: IPCC WGI, 2013


Supply Technologies Cost Trends

Source: Grubler et al, 2012


“Learning” Through Scale

Learning Rates US Wind Turbines Source: Grubler/Wilson, in press, and ALPS-2012 Report

2013 #30 Nakicenovic 30

1850 1950 1900 2000 2050

Source: After Granger Morgan,

But first, a reminder…


Cumulative Experience and Learning: The Importance of “granularity

A

B

C

D

E

F

GH

IJ

KL

M

N

1

23

4

56

7

8

91011

12

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

1.E+00 1.E+03 1.E+06 1.E+09 1.E+12 1.E+15 1.E+18

Lear

ning

rate

(% c

ost c

hang

e pe

r do

ublin

g)

Cumulative # of units produced

A TransitorsB DRAMsC AutomobilesD Washing machinesE RefrigeratorsF DishwashersG Freezers (upright)H Freezers (chest)I DryersJ CalculatorsK CF light bulbsL A/C & heat pumpsM Air furnacesN Solar hot water heaters

1 PV modules2 Wind turbines3 Heat pumps4 Gas turbines5 Pulverized coal boilers6 Hypropower plants7 Nuclear reactors8 Ethanol9 Coal power plants

10 Coal power plants11 Gas pipelines12 Gas combined cycles

Mean of “granular” end use technologies: LR=20% CumProd= 10e9

Mean of “lumpy” supply technologies: LR=10% CumProd= 10e4

Source: Wilson et al, Nature CC, 2012


Deep Offshore Ocean Wind

Source: NREL, 2011


Deep Offshore Ocean Wind

Source: LA Wind, 2011


Deep Ocean Pumped Storage ~ 30m sphere @ 2000m ≈ 60MWh

Source: Schmidt-Böcking, 2011; FAZ, 2011

2013 #35 Nakicenovic Source: Hasni, 2011


Annual Energy Investments

Innovation RD&D

[billion US$2005]

Markets Formation

[billion US$2005]

Present Investments [billion US$2005]

Investment for SE4All

[billion US$2005]

2010 2010 2010 2010 - 2030 Efficiency >> 8 ~ 5 300 260-370 Renewables > 12 ~ 20 200 260-410 Access < 1 < 1 ~ 9 40-60 Total > 50 < 150 1250 1780 - 2440

Global Energy Investments


0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives

Tota

l Glo

bal P

olic

y Co

sts

(201

0-20

30)

Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point

Energy Policy Costs (% GDP)

Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012

Nakicenovic #38 2013

Vision of a Sailing Railway Monorail using sails proposed by Henry R. Palmer in 1828

Source: Marshall, 1938

Documents

Strategies for achieving sustainable climate goals · Nakicenovic 2013 #13 Energy Access . Energy Security . Climate Change The Key Energy Challenges Air Pollution ... Pachauri et