1

CO-FINANCED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION

EUROPEAN AGRICULTURAL FUND FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT:

EUROPE INVESTING IN RURAL AREAS

MEASURE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE

EUROPEAN MARITIME AND FISHERIES FUND MEASURE VII.1. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE

Strategic Transformation in Agriculture and Rural Space

(STARS RAS)

Background Document

Agroecological and Climate Assessment

This background document is a product of the staff of the World Bank Group. The findings, interpretations,

and conclusions expressed in the background document do not necessarily reflect the views of The World

Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank Group does

not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work, which is drawn from multiple external sources.

Nothing herein shall constitute, or considered to be, a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and

immunities of The World Bank Group, all of which are specifically reserved.

2

Contents

Climate Change and Croatia: A Snapshot .................................................................................................... 3

Impacts from climate variability and change on agriculture ...................................................................... 3

Climate Policies and Agriculture ............................................................................................................... 5

CAP and Climate Change ......................................................................................................................... 6

The Strategy as a pathway to Climate Smart Agriculture ......................................................................... 7

Data and information gaps .................................................................................................................... 8

Institutional gaps ................................................................................................................................... 8

Agroecological Zonification (AEZ): A Tool to Support Agricultural Planning ................................................ 9

Applications in the context of the EU ........................................................................................................ 9

Beyond technical and biophysical aspects, integrating economic and social perspectives. .................. 11

A framework flexible to measure climate sensitivity ............................................................................... 11

National Agroecological Zonification (NAEZ): Application Potential in Croatia ...................................... 11

Overview of availability of biophysical and socioeconomic information in Croatia ................................. 11

Support strategic agricultural planning now and beyond ........................................................................ 12

NAEZ can support the development of the bioeconomy. ....................................................................... 12

NAEZ can complement the economic efficiency analysis by integrating biophysical constraints .......... 13

NAEZ platform can inform on climate change impacts and agricultural risk. ......................................... 13

3

Climate Change and Croatia: A Snapshot

1. Croatia is a climatically complex country, with a large variability in precipitation trends over the last decades from one location to another. The mountainous region and the coastal hinterland are mostly affected by drying tendencies in precipitation, especially during the summer season, while the mainland is subjected to wetter precipitation conditions. The Carpathian Region (encompassing Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Poland, Ukraine, Romania and Serbia), heat wave events have become more frequent, longer, more severe and intense1.

2. In the future, Croatia is expected to become hotter and drier – especially in the summer2. Climate change trends are projected to increase temperatures and decrease water availability across Croatia over the next century. Trends in temperature show warming throughout Croatia, with higher temperatures in the mainland than the Coast and the Dalmatian hinterland. Maximum temperatures will see the greatest degree of change, per decade. Climate data from global models and high emission scenarios indicates monthly mean temperature changes increasing by 1.36°C (2020-2039) to more than 4°C by the 2080 to 2099 period.

3. Future precipitation trends for the country are projected to decline steadily over the century, however these negative trends are primarily recognized in the summer months in the mountain regions as well as the Adriatic and its hinterland. Annual decreases in precipitation are also expected in Istria and Gorski kotar, expected due to reduced spring rainfall. An increased number of consecutive dry days are expected to be seen over the spring season for the northern Adriatic and its hinterlands with summer seasons seeing extended number of dry days reach the southern coast of Croatia.

Impacts from climate variability and change on agriculture

4. Mitigation and adaptation to climate change are critical for strategic planning. Nearly a quarter of the Croatian economy is based on sectors potentially vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather, including agriculture and tourism. This accounts for an estimated €9.23 billion a year. Between 2000 and 2007, extreme weather including droughts and floods caused average annual losses in the agricultural sector of €173 million. Natural hazards resulting in these types of issues are likely to become more common over the coming century3.Croatia has identified several vulnerable to climate change sectors, including water resources (consumption and irrigation), coast and coastal zones, forestry and land use change, agriculture, biodiversity, and human health. Indirect or secondary climate impacts can also

1 Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction, 2010. Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Republic of Croatia. http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/cro105236.pdf 2 UNDP, 2008. A Climate for Change. Human Development Report – Croatia. http://klima.hr/razno/news/fastfacts.pdf 3 EU, 2012. Climate Vulnerability Assessment: Croatia. http://www.seeclimateforum.org/upload/document/cva_croatia_-_english_final_print2.pdf

• By 2050, the average air

temperature in Croatia would

rise by 2.2 degrees Celsius, and

that precipitation would be

reduced by up to 15 percent in all

seasons except winter.

• By 2070, the snow cover will be

reduced by almost 50 percent,

• Recurring extreme events like

hail, storms, high winds and

even tornados.

• Higher frequency and intensity of

dry periods and droughts with

high intensity flooding events.

• Sea levels will rise by 40 to 65

cm by 2100, thus endangering a

significant number of towns on

Croatia’s coast.

4

lead to increased poverty and migration to urban areas and increased health issues on rural labor communities.

5. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to climate change, since it is weather dependent4. Extreme weather events such as droughts and hail have resulted in average losses of EUR 176 million per year from 2000-2007 - 0.6% of national GDP5. Changing climate conditions for the country may impact the annual number of days of active vegetation (temperature above 5°C) in the lowland parts the country by mid-century. This may result in cultivation shifts depending on crops’ needs for heat, light and water, resulting in changing crop rotation in farming areas, suitable areas for orchards, vineyards and olive groves, areas currently unsuitable for agriculture may become more attractive. Increased temperatures coupled with capability to provide adequate water (irrigation) could bring about increases in yields, especially for winter crops, which will be cultivated under mild winter conditions. Adverse impacts, i.e. drought risk, hail, flood, frost, etc., may impact production of key staple crops, winter wheat and maize6. Diminished surface runoff may also affect groundwater levels, affecting drinking water supplies as well as water availability for irrigation. Reduced precipitation and increasing heat trends for much of the country’s agricultural areas are also expected to be impacted by increasing number of consecutive dry days7 by 2050.

6. The fisheries sector is also extremely vulnerable to climate change. Warmer sea

temperatures are likely to impact the fishing industry, potentially through an increased number of invasive species and changing locations of shoals, which will in turn affect the economy of coastal provinces and islands. Water temperature is already experiencing increased averages and fish populations are changing their behavior and migration patterns in the Adriatic, which has implications for fish catches. The arrival of new species in the Adriatic Sea has resulted in both positive and negative economic impacts. However, it is highly troubling from an environmental standpoint, as the indigenous species are now under significant threat. Climate change may enable the development of mariculture, especially with species like tuna.

7. The slow onset of climate events can lead to significant environmental degradation

such as desertification, land/forest degradation, loss of crop cultivars and nutrition quality, ocean acidification, salinization, increased sea surface temperature and sea level rise.

8. Devising resilient measures to minimize the effects of climate change is urgent.

Irrigation is one approach. The reduction in crop yields without irrigation, in average climate conditions, can vary from 10% to 60%, while in extreme dry conditions it can be up to 90% depending on crop, soil and area. Increasing the irrigated area of arable land in Croatia is increasingly needed to maintain and improve crop yields. In addition, other resilient measures include promoting crop rotation and encouraging farmers to use new crop varieties, including drought resistant and faster-growing varieties8.

9. Investment in localized research is required to develop detailed, economically sound adaptation measures. The implementation of climate smart measures (including both adaptation and mitigation actions) requires a strong education pillar that has a strong partner in the extension services available to farmers. Capacity building programs are necessary to develop educational programs tailored to farmers, advising services, administrative staff,

4 EU, 2012. Climate Vulnerability Assessment: Croatia. http://www.seeclimateforum.org/upload/document/cva_croatia_-_english_final_print2.pdf 5 UNDP, 2008. A Climate for Change. Human Development Report – Croatia. http://klima.hr/razno/news/fastfacts.pdf 6 Croatia NC6, 2014. 7 CCKP, 2018. http://worldbank.habitatseven.work/country/croatia/climate-sector-agriculture 8 EU, 2012. Climate Vulnerability Assessment: Croatia. http://www.seeclimateforum.org/upload/document/cva_croatia_-_english_final_print2.pdf

5

scientists, teachers, and other stakeholder on existing and new systems of cultivation, cropping, and planting.

Climate Policies and Agriculture

10. Croatia is well advanced in terms of its policies and action plans related to Climate Change. Croatia submitted its Sixth National Communication (NC6) and First Biennial Report of The Republic of Croatia Under the UNFCCC in 2014. Croatia also participated in the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC), as an EU Member State in 2015. In addition, Croatia also developed its Low Carbon Development Strategy (up to 2050) with particular emphasis on the possibility of adaptation of the economy for LULUCF and Agriculture.

11. The Croatian government has committed itself to a proactive approach to environmental policy as a priority and development policy where will encourage the fight against climate change and the development of technologies which reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable use of natural resources. A key factor in the implementation of policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will be the efficiency of using the EU structural funds and investment funds that are available to the country.

12. With the accession to the EU, Croatia has adopted the common European objective of

reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020 compared to 1990 with a conditional option to decrease them by 30% if other states take comparable goals, as listed in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol adopted at the 18th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC in Doha, Qatar. As part of the EU Common Strategic Framework for the funding of programs and projects, at least 20% of the total EU budget for the period 2014-2020 will be allocated for the implementation of policies, measures and projects related to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, including the integration of these issues into the other sectoral policies (development, agriculture, cohesion, etc.).

13. Croatia has recently drafted its Climate Adaptation Action Plan following the guidelines

of its Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change. The Adaptation Strategy provides a vision and guidelines for the development of climate change adaptation in the country up to 2040 with a view of 2070, while the Action Plan contains priority measures derived from the Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change for the next five-year period, i.e. from 2019 to 2023. This Action Plan for the period from 2019 to 2023 contains a total of 42 adaptation measures, of which several prioritize a higher resilience pathway for climate impacts in the agriculture and fisheries sector. For each of these sectors, primary needs and response strategies have been identified, together with a range of suggested measures and, in some cases, financial needs;

The historical developments of agriculture

GHG emissions in the EU show a rather

steady downward trend on the aggregated

EU-28 level of -24 %, from 618 million tons

CO2 equivalents in 1990 to about 471

million tons CO2 equivalents in 2012. While

EU-15 emissions decreased by 15 % (-68.4

million CO2 equivalents), in the new

Member States emission decreased by 45

% (-78.8 tons CO2 equivalents) over the

period 1990 to 2012.

6

but these strategies and priorities include only limited information on involved agencies, actors, or means of implementation.

14. Identified priority activities in the Adaptation Action Plan for Agriculture include9:

• Implementation of an experimental climate change adaptation program in agriculture;

• Increasing the water absorption capacity of agricultural soil;

• Application of soil conservation tillage;

• Breeding of species and cultivars of agricultural crops and breeds of domestic animals that are more resilient to climate change;

• Construction of reservoirs for irrigation;

15. Identified priority activities in Adaptation Action Plan for Fisheries include10:

• Development and offer extended of new markets with new, farmed species and products with added value, to increase the resilience of the fisheries sector to the fluctuation in farming and catch and competition from third countries;

• Strengthening of the capacities of scientific institutions dealing with climate modelling and production of application models for fisheries sector;

• Strengthening of the capacities of institutions involved in monitoring the condition of bio-resources;

• Strengthening the capacities of adaptive management so fishing efforts are aligned with the actual condition of bio-resources to achieve ecological, economical, and socially sustainable fishing;

• Reinforcing the linkages of fisheries and the tourism sector to maintain the participation of fishermen and their remaining in the sector.

16. As part of the EU Common Strategic Framework for the funding of programs and projects, at least 20% of the total EU budget for the period 2014-2020 addresses the implementation of policies, measures and projects related to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, including the integration of these issues into the other sectoral policies (development, agriculture, cohesion, etc.).

CAP and Climate Change

17. The proposal for a new legislative framework of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for the next programming period, under which the European Commission is leading the transition to a more sustainable agriculture for one of the oldest EU policies – agricultural policy, is aimed at strengthening the agricultural sector’s resilience, supporting farmers’ income and sustainability, fulfilling the role of agriculture in environmental and climate challenges, reducing administrative burden, generational renewal and stronger use of innovation in agriculture, as well as ensuring the vitality of rural areas and the development of rural areas and communities.

18. To achieve that, three of the nine CAP objectives will focus on climate and natural resource preservation, highlighting the benefits farmers provide to society on issues such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and soil quality. In line with the Union's commitment to implement the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, actions under the CAP are expected to contribute 40 per cent of the overall CAP budget to climate action.

9 http://prilagodba-klimi.hr/wp-content/uploads/docs/Draft%20CC%20Action%20Plan.pdf 10 http://prilagodba-klimi.hr/wp-content/uploads/docs/Draft%20CC%20Action%20Plan.pdf

7

19. Income support will be made conditional on enhanced environment and climate-friendly farming practices. In addition, an “eco-schemes” system, will be mandatory for Member States to offer (but voluntary to farmers) and funded from national direct payment allocations as each Member State can design their own. Member States will also be required to dedicate at least 30% of their rural development budget to environment and climate measures. Funding for environment-related measures in areas of natural constraints (ANCs) such as mountainous or coastal regions, will now be in addition to the 30% of rural development.

20. These call for the consideration of agriculture as a direct link in the context of climate change

and environmental protection. Although they should be discussed in greater detail, they present an opportunity for behavioral change of farmers and access to resources for

enhancement of the synergies between adaptation and mitigation actions, and

improvements in productivity by promoting sustainable production.

21. Private sector mechanisms (climate finance instruments, access to carbon markets) are also important, as Croatia participates in carbon emission trading since 2014.

The Strategy as a pathway to Climate Smart Agriculture

22. Under the National Agriculture and Rural Development Strategy, the agriculture sector has a unique opportunity to implement and mainstream several of the existing climate policies, as well as enhance synergies with both adaptation and mitigation actions to support a climate resilient and low carbon development pathway in Croatia. If climate smart agriculture knowledge is embraced and scaled up, it can enhance the implementation of several measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that also enhance environmental quality of soil and water resources. Promoting resource efficiency, supporting the shift towards a low carbon and climate resilient economy in the agriculture, food and forestry sectors is a good development approach.

23. Mitigation measures in agriculture mainly focus on: i) Changes in regime of feeding cattle and improving the quality of animal feed to reduce methane emissions from storage of manure and enteric fermentation, anaerobic digestion and biogas production; ii) Improvement of the efficiency of nitrogen in agriculture to reduce nitrogen dioxide emissions from the application of mineral fertilizers and manure, and the application of nitrification inhibitors / slow-acting nitrogen fertilizer, iii) Enhancement of the capacity for carbon storage in agricultural soils.

24. Adaptation measures in agriculture mainly focus on reducing soil erosion, optimizing crop rotation, using efficient irrigation and drainage systems, diversifying businesses, crop insurance and investment into agricultural equities, and planting forests to protect grasslands. Although most actions are to be implemented locally (e.g. at the farm level), less emphasis is placed on large-scale actions, including support for farm-level activities to increase their effectiveness or on creating the institutional capabilities needed to implement adaptation practices. Such actions, for example, would include creating national schemes for crop insurance, developing drainage and irrigation infrastructure, revising principles and guidelines for water, fertilizer and pesticide use and supporting capacities by involving farmers in learning about relevant adaptation options and involving them in policy designing and resource use planning (e.g. water), and by working with researchers in ensuring effective monitoring and warning systems and dissemination of information to farmers and producers.

8

25. One of the greatest barriers to implementation of climate actions is the lack of understanding of what national and international climate policies and financial support translates to at the local level. An increase in knowledge about how large-scale policy will impact the day-to-day operations of individual farmers would greatly increase the effectiveness and acceptance of additional policies regarding climate smart agriculture. The framework currently used to support adaptation and mitigation programs could be expanded to include programs to inform farmers about the implications of shifting agro-economic and climate change policies. Not only would this alleviate several challenges resulting from unpreparedness and inefficient institutional organization, but it would increase awareness of new opportunities when they become available. A key aspect of the training programs is to enhance the capacity building in the agriculture advisory services for the deployment and monitoring of climate smart actions and commitments.

26. There is need to enhance the integration and cooperation between researchers, policy-makers and other stakeholders in adaptation planning. Adaptation means creating partnerships including within public sector, with private sector, and SMEs in agriculture. A range of partners can support the scale up of information systems for planning and decision making at the farm level. This could include linkages with the AKIS initiatives and the strengthening of the development to climate services for specific users.

Data and information gaps

• Improved data availability – In many sectors such as agriculture, tourism, water resources, and others, data is not available to estimate the impacts of future climate change. Data needed to estimate future damage from climate change and avoid it through adaptation would also help with existing climate variability and help better target existing policies/ programs. This includes making data openly available which is paid for by the public budget.

• Improved modelling of environmental and economic systems focusing on Agriculture systems – Models of the Croatian economy, the climate, and various sectors can be very helpful in understanding the causal relationships within the Croatian economy. This is important for climate change and for economic development in general. The link between climate and economic systems still needs to be made within Croatia.

• Improve technical capacity to analyze hydro-met data and project impacts across sectors

• Establish institutional capacity for providing timely early warning systems and climate services for the Agriculture sector (linked with AKIS).

• Development of early warning systems about dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena and climate risk management to support risks and climate risks insurances and other risk management approaches, beyond current actions and business as usual.

Institutional gaps

• Coordination of the activities of various actors - Because climate change is a multi-sectoral issue, many Government agencies/ ministries and private entities/ firms will need to be engaged in the discussion on what Croatia does to address it. An inter-ministerial committee on climate change can spearhead the effort to address vulnerability to climate and in mitigating Croatia’s emissions that are relevant for climate smart agriculture. This should include a behavioral change in Agriculture institutions from a Reactive Management towards a Proactive Planning and a longer-term vision.

• Integration of climate into planning – This includes the development of physical plans on the coast to minimize the risk from sea-level rise, targeting subsidies in the agriculture sector to reduce climate vulnerability, physical planning and energy planning that will reduce emissions

9

but also consider changing environmental conditions, being prepared to deal with health problems which may arise from heat waves, and many other areas.

• Involve and engage the Croatian public – The Croatian public express a strong desire to help reduce emissions and enhance resilience towards climate impacts. They should be engaged as critical actors in the effort to reduce Croatia’s impact on climate change and adapt as well11.

Agroecological Zonification (AEZ): A Tool to Support Agricultural Planning

27. Agriculture is centered on the use of natural resources. Soil, water, biodiversity, climate and ecosystems services are fundamental to the structure and appropriate function of agriculture production systems. Therefore, the type of agriculture activities that can be carried out on a given area depends on the capacity or limitations imposed by biophysical and natural conditions in the landscape.

28. The AEZ Approach: In 1976, FAO developed a common framework for land evaluation to

analyze the suitability of land for agricultural activities and cultivation practices, addressing the question what can grow where and/or providing guidance on alternative uses of land. The concept of land suitability evolved into an agroecological zoning (AEZ) approach towards identifying land to feed the world in 2000. AEZ incorporates the grouping of diverse agroecosystems to facilitate the management of land use. The land resources components include climate, soils, landform and land cover. Crop specific environmental limitations, considering various types of input and management conditions, are identified through crop modeling and environmental matching. The suitability, as such, is a function of crop requirements and the land/climatic characteristics, and it measures how well the qualities of the land unit match the requirements for a specific land use type (e.g. specific crop, type of crop management practice). The methodology (Figure 1) has developed into an instrument for spatial planning of agricultural production to support public policies and land use planning.

Applications in the context of the EU

29. Several EU reference documents consider FAO land assessment frameworks and agroecological approaches to provide technical guidance for recommendation of specific operating programs. The 2011 “Towards a better targeting of the aid to farmers in areas with handicaps” selected FAO’s agricultural problem-land approach to generate the technical basis for the policy requirements12. FAO land approach was adjusted to EU conditions/needs to provide a simple yet robust framework to identify areas with constraints to agriculture regardless of type of crop. One of the adjustments was to incorporate climate-related variables to allow for identification of areas facing significant soil and climatic constraints for agriculture. The application of FAO’s agroecological approaches can be easily adapted to country-specific contexts (see Table 1). For example, the Ministry of Agriculture of France is mainstreaming agroecology principles in their strategy for adaptation and improved performance of French agriculture. The German regulation indicates that spatial planning should consider the need to promote diversified sustainable management of land, fisheries and forests, including agro-ecological approaches and sustainable intensification, and to meet the challenges of climate change and food security. The framework for soil quality for agricultural land in Germany and

11 EU, 2012. Climate Vulnerability Assessment: Croatia. http://www.seeclimateforum.org/upload/document/cva_croatia_-_english_final_print2.pdf 12 https://enrd.ec.europa.eu/sites/enrd/files/w11_anc_guidance_biophysical-criteria.pdf

10

Austria’s Storey’s index are other similar tools to FAO’s universal framework for land evaluation.

Figure 1: Synthesis of the AEZ methodology approach

Table 1: Applications of land assessment/suitability activities in EU countries13

Country Description of AEZ/Land Suitability activities

EU level Application of FAO’s land methodology- adjusted to map natural constraints for agriculture in Europe.

UK Agricultural Land Classification of England and Wales- Guidelines and criteria for grading quality of agricultural land. It

provides a framework for classifying land according to the extent to which its physical or chemical characteristics impose long-

term limitations on agricultural use.

France Only country which bases its ag policy on concept of agroecology.

Hungary The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development under the Hungarian Agri-Environmental Programme (AEP) undertook a

land zone study to evaluate the suitability of areas for agricultural production (i.e. agricultural potential) and environmental

sensitivity, and to make a comparison between them to balance natural resources and to identify target areas for different

agri-environmental schemes14.

Cyprus Land suitability assessment to classify infertile land.

Germany Methodologies to assess agricultural suitability vary by region depending on considerations of specific biophysical aspects:

climate, moisture, soil properties etc.

Switzerland Climate Change and Agricultural Production Risks (AGRISK) project supported by Swiss National Science Foundation to

develop a framework for evaluating climate suitability of the most important cultivation types, indicating areas of optimum

assessment, as a tool for supporting land resources planning. 15

Bulgaria National Spatial Development Concept (NSDC) highlights the important role of spatial planning for the development of the

agriculture sector to identify: presence of areas with favorable conditions for the development of organic agriculture with fertile

13 https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/38609579.pdf 14 https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/eko.2017.36.issue-1/eko-2017-0008/eko-2017-0008.pdf 15 https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2655&context=iemssconference

11

soils, clean and sufficient water resources, suitable climatic conditions, traditional industries and opportunities for diversifying

economic activity with the enterprises of the processing industry

Poland Land quality index including soil, climate, relief and water conditions to identify areas with natural constraints.

30. Beyond technical and biophysical aspects, integrating economic and social perspectives. The land suitability-matching process itself does not consider other factors that determine the profitability of specific land use - whether a potential market exists, the distance and time traveled to a market, characteristics of market demand, etc. It is a purely technical assessment which does not include off-farm or non-production factors such as the availability of credit and does not make value judgements on the potential uses of the land. However, once the land unit has been rated in terms of its biophysical suitability and technical potential for different crops or uses, the best use must be selected in the light of economic, social, and sometimes political factors. The concept of land utilization type (LUT) explicitly allows for the integration of social and economic considerations. More specifically, economic evaluations can be carried out for the various identified crop uses based on input levels and expected outputs to assess which land uses would be more economically viable. Economic suitability may be expressed in terms of the return to labor, return to land, gross margin cost, NPV among other measures. Furthermore, information on availability of infrastructure and market information can be integrated into the analysis to identify viability for market potential.

31. A framework flexible to measure climate sensitivity. Agriculture both contributes to and is affected by climate change. Agricultural production is greatly impacted by climate variably; appropriate adaptation strategies to climate change and weather variability are critical for mitigating shocks. Although not created to model climate change, AEZ can simulate the impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation on potential agricultural output and cropping patterns (Güther, van Velthuizen, Shah & Naehtergaele, 200216; Mendelsohn, 2000). Temperature changes are captured in the modeling through thermal regime; the length of growing period is integrated from impacts on soil moisture and evapotranspiration and yield impacts are incorporated in the yield biomass model. AEZ also allows for introduction of adaptation to climate specific impacts as technology changes can be captured in the definition of specific management and production conditions (LUT). More recently, coupling of Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSST) crop models and AEZ modeling has enabled the quantification of the effects of adaptation measures in production systems (Fan et al, 2017)17.

National Agroecological Zonification (NAEZ): Application Potential in Croatia

32. Overview of availability of biophysical and socioeconomic information in Croatia. A brief desk review of existing biophysical information in Croatia indicates that there is enough information to carry out an agroecological zonification analysis. However, additional work needs to be done to format or improve the quality and compatibility of the data. One essential piece of information is the national soil map with information on soil profile, structure, porosity, organic matter, texture, etc. Soil mapping in Croatia began in 1964 and was completed in 1996. A case study evaluating the effective map scale and thematic accuracy of profile observations in Croatia indicated that these are of lower quality than planned and that their usability for spatial planning is limited. According to Hengl18 (2006), the major usability

16 Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability, IIASA 2002. http://adapts.nl/perch/resources/climateagri.pdf 17 Dongli Fan, Qiuying Ding, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun & Guenther Fischer (2017) A cross-scale model coupling approach to simulate the risk-reduction effect of natural adaptation on soybean production under climate change, Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, 23:3, 426-440, DOI: 10.1080/10807039.2016.1221308 18 https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/568e/e1f4195733f49e93d3772b1cae989270ccdd.pdf

12

problems identified were lack of metadata, inconsistent methodology, incompleteness, unpopular concepts, which are typical of national inventories conducted in Eastern European countries after the Second World War but also in some more developed countries. This, however, does not mean that new soil maps need to be produced from scratch or that this data is completely unusable. One solution to save this large amount of high-quality soil field data is to use auxiliary maps of terrain morphology, remote sensing images, and new quantitative techniques, to produce more accurate prediction maps.

33. Key data is available but dispersed across different agencies/departments. Agrometeorological activities (soil temperature measurements and phenological observations) in Croatia started in 1951. The Agrometeorological department counts with specialized staff (agronomist, meteorologist, technicians) as well as network of observation stations: 60 pheno-stations, 60 soil temperature, 40 main meteorological stations and 114 ordinary ones. The agency produces specific agrometeorological forecasts, applies crop-whether modelling to identify climate change impact on yield impacts, crops water stress, fire risks indexes among other. The Croatian Environmental Agency generates information on land cover and land use at the national level. Other relevant sources of information related to land use/land cover data are the protected areas and the ARKOD records of the agricultural land use for farms receiving payments. Key socioeconomic information related demographic, economic, water supply and use for agriculture, agricultural production systems are also available in the country.

34. Support strategic agricultural planning now and beyond. The development of a national agroecological zonification framework for Croatia can bring together critical data to generate valuable information to build on for the preparation and potentially support the monitoring of the post-2020 agricultural operational program. A Croatia NAEZ can specifically help identify location-specific agricultural potential and constraints based on biophysical, social and economic variables. The analysis can help detect locations where current land use produces poor agro-economic results and identify viable and more competitive alternative options. It can provide estimates of the actual potential of crop production across the country based on different production systems, i.e. rainfed vs. irrigated and/or variation of levels of inputs applied to a variety of crops. The assessment can also identify places with less favored agro-ecological environments, with rural populations that are ecologically and environmentally disadvantaged. A NAEZ tool can inform public policies and decision-making across stakeholders and sectors, can promote sustainable land use and conservation and benefit agricultural productivity and food supply in Croatia. As such, the relevance of the NAEZ to inform payments under Pillar 1 (“greening”), as well as under Pillar 2 (rural development measures, including less favored areas among others) is key.

35. NAEZ can support the development of the bioeconomy. An understanding of the ability of

primary sectors to produce enough biomass to meet existing and future demands of the bioeconomy is essential for its sustainable and circular development. The NAEZ provides a framework from which to gain a better understanding on opportunities to increase sustainable biomass supply, potential biomass mobilization/transformation needs, location-specific market opportunities, among others. These elements are essential to develop integrated value chains approaches that maximize the sustainable supply and use of biomass. Additionally, the AEZ platform can be further expanded to integrate spatial assessment of alternative biomass supply sources from residues and by-products which can undergo transformation into value added products. A spatial land-based assessment can support the identification of bio-economy clusters throughout the territory, provide a platform to engage with local

13

stakeholders and generate information to inform the preparation of regional bioeconomy strategies.

36. NAEZ can complement the economic efficiency analysis by integrating biophysical

constraints. Soil quality, temperature and rainfall are all fundamental for crop production and

vary from farm to farm. These natural assets affect crop performance, along with the specificity

of production systems and composition of inputs and management practices. Meaningful

estimates of technical efficiency (TE) can be complemented by considering the possible

effects of location-specific soil, climatic and environmental factors. Demir and Mahnud (2002)

argue that the exclusion of these exogenous variables affects the TE estimates. In their

regional study in Turkey, they demonstrate that agro-climatic variables significantly affect

directly and indirectly, through interactions, mean output elasticities, economies of scale and

technical efficiencies. Hence, an NAEZ can complement the TE results by highlighting how

soil and agro-climatic variables may affect production outcomes.

37. NAEZ platform can inform on climate change impacts and agricultural risk.

Understanding the spatial and temporal variations of climate and the impacts that climate

change may have on agriculture is fundamental to better target climate smart interventions.

Climate change scenarios can be simulated in the proposed NAEZ platform to assess the

impacts of climate variations on agricultural production. Furthermore, the definition of climatic

regions and knowledge of other environmental interactions is key to understanding the scope

and scale of climate risks and support the definition of risk management options.