Strategic Research ■ Analytics ■ Modeling ■ Optimization European Economic Trends Conducted Via American Consumer Opinion® Panel: 2000-2012

Strategic Research ■ Analytics ■ Modeling ■ Optimization

European Economic TrendsConducted Via American Consumer Opinion® Panel: 2000-2012

2

European Economic Trends: 2000-20121-817-640-6166 | www.decisionanalyst.com

Copyright © 2013 Decision Analyst

Table Of Contents

Page

Preface 3

Background 5

Countries 6

Intellectual Property 7

European Summary 8

Economic Index—Then and Now 9

Housing Purchase Plans 10

France 12

Germany 21

Italy 30

Spain 39

United Kingdom 48

About Decision Analyst 57

Contact Decision Analyst 58

http://www.decisionanalyst.com/

3



Decision Analyst Economic Index

Investment Optimism

Inflation Perceptions

Purchasing Plans

Home Purchasing Plans

Credit Available

Job Availability

Graphs included in this report:

Objectives

The primary objective of this report is to present a high-level overview of important

economic trends in Europe, as seen through the eyes of ordinary men and women.

This report will provide some perspective on the economies of France, Germany, Italy,

Spain, and the UK, and what the future may portend. The data comes from Decision

Analyst’s Economic Index Survey from 2000 through the end of 2012.

Preface


4



Methodology

The Decision Analyst Economic Index Survey is conducted monthly via the Internet

among several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. The

respondents are from Decision Analyst’s proprietary American Consumer Opinion®

panel, one of the world’s largest online panels with eight million members worldwide.

The monthly data is aggregated and reported by quarter in this report. The Economic

Index is reported monthly. The margin of error is less than three percentage points,

plus or minus, at a 95% confidence level for most of the percentages.

Preface


5



Economic Index

The survey results are inputs to an econometric model that produces the Economic

Index. The Economic Index tends to be a leading indicator by six to 12 months for

general economic activity in each country.

When the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an

expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth

economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. However,

these guidelines vary by country.

Three-Month Moving Average

The Index numbers for Germany and Spain are a three-month moving average to

smooth month-to-month fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current

month with the two previous months.

Background


6



Countries

The survey is conducted during the last 10 days of each month in the countries shown below. The time span for this report is from July 2000 through December 2012.

UK Sample: 55,275Began: Q3 2000

FranceSample: 79,856

Began: Q3 2000

SpainSample: 26,532Began: Q3 2003

GermanySample: 40,047Began: Q3 2000

ItalySample : 61,834Began: Q3 2000


7



Decision Analyst is the sole owner of the questions, survey results, and the

report formats. Decision Analyst grants its clients the right to review and use

these results in their businesses. However, these results cannot be

published, reprinted, released to the media, or posted on any website without

written permission from Decision Analyst.

Intellectual Property

©



European Summary

9



*Three-Month Moving Average

UK July 2003: 116

December 2012: 87

FranceJuly 2003: 93

December 2012: 76

Spain*July 2003: 104

December 2012: 73

Germany*July 2003: 95

December 2012: 99

ItalyJuly 2003: 100

December 2012: 78

Economic Index: Then and Now April 2003 to December 2012


10



Housing Purchase Plans

Question: In the next 12 months, which of the following are you very likely to do? Take a vacation costing more than $1,000; Buy a new PC or computer equipment for home; Buy new furniture for home; Buy a new car or truck; Remodel your existing home; Buy an existing or preowned home; Buy a newly built home.

1%Build new home3%

2%Buy existing or

pre-owned home

8%

20%Remodel existing home22%

Buy furniture21% 11%

Q4 2012Q3 2003

France

2%Build New Home5%

3%Buy existing or

pre-owned home

7%



Q4 2012Q3 2003

Italy

1%Build new home1%

2%Buy existing or

pre-owned home

2%



Q4 2012Q3 2003

Germany


11



Build new home

Buy existing or pre-owned home

Remodel existing home

Buy furniture

Build new home

Buy existing or pre-owned home

Remodel existing home

Buy furniture

Housing Purchase Plans

Question: In the next 12 months, which of the following are you very likely to do? Buy a new car or new truck; Buy an existing or preowned home; Buy a newly built home; Remodel your existing home; Buy new furniture for home; Buy a new PC or computer equipment for home; Take a vacation costing more than $1,000; None of the above.

3%10%

4%7%

7%15%

24% 13%

Q4 2012Q3 2003

Spain

1%2%

3%11%

8%18%

38% 18%

Q4 2012Q3 2003

United Kingdom



France

13



15%

25%

45%

16%

Very close to credit limit Somewhat close to credit limit

Not close to credit limit Do not own a credit card

14%

27%

42%

17%

France Economic Summary

50%Believe jobs are scarce11%

58%Believe prices are increasing rapidly34%

Buy a new PC or computer equipment for the home 16%36%

July 2000:

120

December 2012:

76

Economic Index

Believe stocks and mutual funds will increase in value56% 11%

Q4 2012Q3 2000

Q3 2000

Economic Indicators

Q4 2012

Credit Limit


14



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-1270

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Year

Ind

ex

Economic Index: France

France has some of the lowest Economic Index scores of all countries reported. The downtrend of the past two years signals continued economic weakness in France.

LowNovember 2011:

71

HighDecember 2000:

121


15



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Will increase in value Will stay about the same Will decrease in value

Investment Optimism: France

Question: In your opinion, will stocks and mutual funds increase in value, or decrease in value, over the next six months? Stocks and mutual funds will increase in value; Stocks and mutual funds will stay about the same; Stocks and mutual funds will decrease in value.

Among Adults Aged 18+


16



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Increasing rapidly Increasing slowly Staying the same or decreasing

Inflation Perceptions: France

Question: In your opinion, are the prices you pay for goods and services…? Increasing rapidly; Increasing slowly; Staying about the same; Decreasing slowly; Decreasing rapidly.



17



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Take a vacation costing more than $1,000 Buy a new PC or computer equipment for home Buy a new car or truck

Purchasing Plans: France




18



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Buy new furniture for home Remodel your existing home Buy an existing or preowned home Buy a newly built home

Home Purchasing Plans: France




19



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Very close to total credit limit Somewhat close to total credit limit Not close to total credit limit Do not own a credit card

Credit Limit: France

Question: Thinking about all of your credit cards, how close are you to the total credit limit on the credit cards you own? Very close to total credit limit (The maximum amount you can charge); Somewhat close to total credit limit; Not close to total credit limit; Do not own a credit card.



20



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jobs are plentiful and easy to find Jobs are available, but you have to search for them Jobs are scarce

Job Availability: France

Question: Currently, how plentiful are jobs in your area? Jobs are plentiful and easy to find; Jobs are available, but you have to search for them; Jobs are scarce.




Germany

22



5%8%

56%

31%



7%

11%

49%

32%

Germany Economic Summary

10%Believe jobs are plentiful and easy to find17%


25%Buy new PC or computer equipment for home49%

July 2000:

123

December 2012:

99

Economic Index


Q4 2012Q3 2000

Q3 2000

Economic Indicators

Q4 2012

Credit Limit


23



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003


80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Year

Ind

ex

Economic Index: Germany

Even though Germany has the strongest economy in Europe, the Index has trended down since December 2010. This downtrend points to economic weakness in 2013.

LowMarch 2009: 86

HighJuly 2000: 123

*Three-Month Moving Average — The Index numbers for Germany are a three-month moving average to smooth out month-to-month fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the two previous months.


24



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Investment Optimism: Germany




25



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Inflation Perceptions: Germany




26



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Purchasing Plans: Germany




27



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 201120032000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Home Purchasing Plans: Germany




28



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Credit Limit: Germany




29



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Job Availability: Germany





Italy

31



6%11%

49%

34%



14%

20%

39%

28%

Italy Economic Summary



21%Buy new PC or computer equipment for home41%

July 2000:

119

December 2012:

78

Economic Index


Q4 2012Q3 2000

Q3 2000

Economic Indicators

Q4 2012

Credit Limit


32



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003


80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Year

Ind

ex

Economic Index: Italy

The Italian economy appears to be weakening. The Economic Index has trended downward for the past six years. The Index predicts continued economic struggles in 2013.

LowApril 2012: 73

HighJuly 2000: 119


33



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Investment Optimism: Italy




34



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Inflation Perceptions: Italy




35



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Purchasing Plans: Italy




36



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Home Purchasing Plans: Italy




37



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Credit Limit: Italy




38



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%


Job Availability: Italy





Spain

40



12%

22%

45%

21%



15%

19%

40%

26%

Spain Economic Summary



9%Buy a new car or truck15%

July 2003:

104

December 2012:

73

Economic Index


Q4 2012Q3 2003

Q3 2003

Economic Indicators

Q4 2012

Credit Limit


41



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003


75

85

95

105

115

125

135

Year

Ind

ex

Economic Index: Spain

Since the end of 2009, Spain’s Index has steadily declined. Spain faces a tough economic road ahead.

LowSeptember 2012:

67

HighJuly 2007: 115

*Three-Month Moving Average — The Index numbers for Spain are a three-month moving average to smooth out month-to-month fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the two previous months.


42



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Investment Optimism: Spain




43



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%


Inflation Perceptions: Spain




44



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Purchasing Plans: Spain




45



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Home Purchasing Plans: Spain




46



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Credit Limit: Spain




47



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%


Job Availability: Spain





United Kingdom

49



16%

19%

43%

22%



9%

10%

58%

24%

United Kingdom Economic Summary



36%Take a vacation costing more than $100042%

July 2000:

123

December 2012:

87

Economic Index


Q4 2012Q3 2000

Q3 2000

Economic Indicators

Q4 2012

Credit Limit


50



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003


80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Year

Ind

ex

Economic Index: United Kingdom

The Economic Index for the U.K. has steadily risen over the past 15 months, perhaps signaling an improving economic outlook for the UK in 2013.

LowSeptember 2011:

75

HighJuly & August

2000: 123


51



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Investment Optimism: United Kingdom




52



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Inflation Perceptions: United Kingdom




53



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Purchasing Plans: United Kingdom




54



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Home Purchasing Plans: United Kingdom




55



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Credit Limit: United Kingdom




56



2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20122001 2005 2007 2009 20112003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%


Job Availability: United Kingdom




57



About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm, serving a number of corporations, advertising agencies, and consulting firms. The name, Decision Analyst, reflects the company's decision-oriented, analytical corporate philosophy.

The firm conducts multinational studies on an array of topics, spanning industries from packaged goods to high technology. The firm places great value on hard work, meeting deadlines, and staying within budgets. The focus of Decision Analyst’s efforts is decision-oriented marketing research and analytical consulting. Research must lead to decisions, to actions. The education and training of our staff reinforce this decision-analytical emphasis. Decision Analyst seeks the synergy inherent in combining qualitative research, quantitative research, secondary data, and advanced analytics (marketing science and operations research techniques), as required by the objectives of each research project.

Decision Analyst is a corporation chartered in the state of Texas in 1978; it is totally owned by its employees. Decision Analyst is an active member of the Council of American Survey Research Organizations (CASRO) and subscribes fully to the Code of Standards and Ethics for Survey Research specified by CASRO. Also, Decision Analyst subscribes to and supports the ethics and quality standards set forth by the Advertising Research Foundation, the American Marketing Association, the Marketing Research Association, the Marketing Science Institute, INFORMS (Institute of Operations Research and Management Science), and ESOMAR (The World Association of Opinion and Marketing Research Professionals).


Strategic Research ■ Analytics ■ Modeling ■ Optimization Copyright © 2013 Decision Analyst

Jerry W. ThomasPresident/CEO

[email protected]

Decision Analyst 604 Avenue H East, Arlington, Texas 76011

817.640.6166 ~ 1.800.ANALYSIShttp://www.decisionanalyst.com

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Documents

Strategic Research ■ Analytics ■ Modeling ■ Optimization European Economic Trends Conducted Via American Consumer Opinion® Panel: 2000-2012