Strategic planning for adaptation to climate change in regional systems

Dr Robert Faggian

• Systems approach for strategic planning

• Application of approach to understand climate

change impacts on regional systems – Horticulture in the Goulburn-Broken region

– Agricultural development in Gippsland

• Approximately 20 minutes / 30 slides

Overview

The wicked problem

APSC examined the issue of policy failure in response

to Wicked Problems.

“These problems share a range of characteristics -

they go beyond the capacity of any one organisation

to understand and respond to, and there is often

disagreement about the causes of the problems and

the best way to tackle them. These complex policy

problems are sometimes called „wicked‟ problems.”

For example:

Climate change (Garnaut has termed it a „diabolical‟ policy issue)

Context

• Agriculture is complex &

full of wicked problems

• Water & climate

• Productivity & profit

• Population & land use

• Demographics & labour

• Biosecurity & market access

• For example, Holstein cows

Complex problems

→ reductionist approach

→ unintended consequences

• DPI building capability in

Systems Thinking

• Practical application to

climate change research

Systems Thinking

• Training courses

• Stand-alone methods (tools)

• International experts

• Integration into projects

From: Jackson 2003

2. Problem

situation

expressed

1. Situation

considered

problematic

3. Define

systems, draw

boundaries

4.

Development

of conceptual

models

5. Comparison

of models and

the real world

6. Changes:

Systemically desirable

Culturally feasible

7. Action to

improve the

problem situation

Real World

Systems thinking

about the real world

Soft systems methodology

• Conceptual modelling

• Cognitive mapping

• Conversation mapping

• Boundary critique

• Downscaled to 5km2

• Spatially represented

with interactive tool

• Time horizon: decades

STA

KE

HO

LD

ER

E

NG

AG

EM

EN

T

• Land suitability model

• Socio-economic profiling

• Viable systems model

• Time horizon: years

• No regret strategies

• Flexible/reversible

• Strategies that reduce

decision-making times

• Monitor/review process

• Compare with reality via

stakeholders

• Reflect and modify

Problem

situation

expressed

Situation

considered

problematic

Define

systems,

draw

boundaries

Developm

ent of

conceptua

l models

Compariso

n of models

and the

real world

Changes:

Systemically

desirable

Culturally

feasible

Action to

improve the

problem

situation

Real

World

Systems

thinking

about the

real world

- Rigorous, structured approach

- Loosely coupled models

- Multi methodology approach

- Strong focus on validation with regional stakeholders

• Problem: climate change & fruit production

• End-user: other researchers

• Scope: tightly focused on

biophysical impacts

• Status: complete

Application: Goulburn-Broken

APPLE LAND SUITABILITY – Year 2000 vs 2070

Application: Goulburn-Broken

Implications:

• Farm level

• improved irrigation

• netting

• varieties

• Industry level

• breeding programs

• canning vs fresh

• Region

• crop selection

• Transformation

• infrastructure

Application: Gippsland

• Problem: climate change impacts on the region

• End-user: Gippsland Local Government Network

• Scope: Broad investigation

of systemic consequences

and economic opportunities

• Status: early stages

• Gippsland Climate Change and Low Carbon Groups and activities

• Agribusiness Gippsland

• Centre for Sustainable Technologies

• Clean Coal Victoria

• Committee for Gippsland

• Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE) - Future Coasts program

• DSE - Victorian Local Sustainability Accord

• East Gippsland Catchment Management Authority

• East Gippsland Shire Inundation Management Project

• Eco Hub

• Energy Innovation Coop

• Gippsland Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation project

• Gippsland Climate Change Network

• Gippsland Education for Sustainability Network

• Gippsland Integrated Natural Resources Forum (GINRF)

• Gippsland Local Government Network

• Gippsland Regional Managers Forum

• Gippsland Regional Plan 2010

• Gippsland Sustainable Agriculture Network

• Gippsland Transition Education Program

• Gippsland Waste Management Group

• Low Carbon Emissions Future Transition Committee

• Latrobe City Climate Change Consultative Committee

• Low Carbon Growth Plan for Gippsland

• Mapping education for sustainability initiatives in regional Gippsland schools and communities.

• The Gippsland Region Sustainable Water Strategy - Office of Water

• Regional Development Australia, Gippsland

• Regional Development Victoria, Gippsland

• South East Councils Climate Change Alliance (SECCCA)

• West Gippsland Catchment Management Authority

Application: Gippsland

• Problem structuring phase

“I‟m a farmer and want to continue

being a farmer, whether its dairy or

cactus is not important.”

Application: Gippsland

“How do we capture climate change

refugees from other parts of the state and

become Victoria‟s foodbowl?”

“We want to make better decisions about

infrastructure investment to minimise

stranded assets.”

If xxxx becomes less suitable for

dairy production, how do we sustain

livelihoods in the area?”

Decision-making

Impacts & adaptive

responses

Commodity modelling

Data acquisition

Climate change

projects in the region

Primary producers and

associated researchers

Agribusinesses and

communities

Local government

• Stranded assets

• Infrastructure and transport

• Adaptation & transformation

• Livelihoods

• New varieties

• Changes to on-farm practice

• Benefits of the research

• Development of leadership in adaptation in the region;

• Value of new adaptation knowledge;

• First mover advantage for Gippsland;

• Acquisition by Gippsland firms of new intellectual property to address climate change adaptation issues.

Application: Gippsland

• Benefits of the research

• More informed decision making regarding local government

planning and development issues;

• Reduced risks of stranded assets;

• Retained/expanded/value-added primary industries through more

timely adaptation;

• Improved community knowledge.

Application: Gippsland

INITIAL CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FOR GIPPSLAND – Temperature (AIF1)

Decision-making

Impacts & adaptive

responses

Commodity modelling

Data acquisition

Climate change

projects in the region

Primary producers and

associated researchers

Agribusinesses and

communities

Local government

• Stranded assets

• Infrastructure and transport

• Adaptation & transformation

• Livelihoods

• New varieties

• Changes to on-farm practice

Application: Gippsland

Next Steps: Optimise potential regional land use

• Map most productive

commodities, old and new

• Identify infrastructure

needs (irrigation, roads,

processing facilities)

• Livelihood and community

implications; workforce,

supporting agribusinesses

• Underpin Gippsland

Regional Plan with data

Goulburn-Broken Gippsland

Conclusion

• Benefits of the systems approach

• Defines the issue in terms of ‘systems’…what is in and what is out

• Articulates assumptions and world-views

• Dependent on interaction with actors (people) within the system

(region)

• Stakeholders become co-researchers and take away learnings rather

than a report that sits on a shelf