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Strategic Outlook of the Global Medium-heavy Commercial Truck Market in 2013
Despite Strong Headwinds Sales Volume Poised to Touch 2.8 Million
Sandeep Kar
Global Director- Commercial Vehicle Research
2 NA53-18 NC37-18
Objective of Frost & Sullivan’s
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where they can grow despite the challenges of technology, price,
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3 NC37-18
Big 5 Predictions
2
MCV and HCV sales in Next 11, Russia, and Rest of World markets (outside of
TRIAD and BRIC) are poised to increase by 10 to 13 percent. China’s
3.1 percent growth rate, although moderate in comparison to previous years,
will provide upside boost to global demand.
3
1
The global economy is expected to grow by 3 to 3.5 percent in 2013, resulting
in medium and heavy truck demand to increase by 5.6 and 3.6 percent,
respectively. Sales in 2013 for medium-heavy trucks will reach 2.8 million units.
So
urc
e: F
rost &
Su
lliva
n a
na
lysis
.
4
Daimler’s 2013 MD-HD truck sales are expected to reach 350,000 units in
2013; Volvo’s acquisition of Dong Feng could take Volvo Group’s MD-HD
truck sales over the 400,000 units mark.
5
Twenty-eight percent of all heavy-duty trucks sold in 2013 will feature platform-
based lineage, showing tectonic changes in global truck production. Significant
growth in the global low-cost truck market (an 8.6 percent CAGR) will lead to
developments and fine-tuning of several BRIC market-based platforms.
Nearly 6,000 CNG/LNG-powered natural gas trucks will be sold in North
America, while global sales for MD-HD natural gas-powered trucks will reach
16,000 units. Hybrid truck sales will trail NG truck sales.
4 NC37-18
Region GDP Growth
Estimates: 2013 (%)
MCV Growth
(YoY%)
HCV Growth
(YoY%)
Overall CV
Growth
(YoY%)
Market
Opportunity
North
America 2–2.5 8 5.9 6.8 Moderate
South
America 4–5 4.6 7.2 6.3 Moderate
Europe 0.5–1 (3.0) (7.9) (6.9) Low
China 8–8.5 2.0 3.5 3.1 Moderate
India 5.5–6.5 1.5 3.5 2.5 Moderate
Russia 4–6 3.0 13.5 11.1 High
Next 11 6–7 11.1 10.9 11.0 High
RoW 4–5 15.5 9.5 12.7 High
Global 3–3.5 5.6 3.6 4.3 Moderate
2013 Global GDP and Commercial Truck Market Growth Outlook: Growth in BRIC and Next 11 economies are expected to offer strength to global truck demand.
Source: World Bank, Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Global CV 2013: World GDP and CV Growth Outlook Overview, Global, 2013
5 NC37-18
Global Medium and Heavy Truck Market Forecast 2013
Despite strong global headwinds, improving Chinese manufacturing indices and strength in BRIC
and Next 11 countries will elevate global MCV and HCV sales to 2.8 Million by 2013.
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Global CV Outlook 2013: Unit Shipments—Global: 2012–2013
4.3% YoY Growth
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
North America
South America
China India Russia Europe Next 11 RoW
MCV HCV
2012
2013 Regional Shares
85.1 %
2013
~2.6 million ~2.8 million
43%
33%
27%
47%
21%
20% 49%
54%
35% 34%
66%
57% 67%
73%
53%
79% 80%
51% 46%
65%
Next 11 includes the following countries: Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, Vietnam, and Bangladesh.
Un
its
MCV: 6T to 16T
HCV: 16T and above
6 NC37-18
Next 11 Markets: Indonesia, Turkey, Mexico, and Egypt offer strong growth potential in 2013, as these economies
expect rapid economic development, leading to freight movement expansion.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Egypt Indonesia Iran Mexico Nigeria Pakistan Phillipines Turkey South Korea
Vietnam
2012 2013
14.7% 11.4%
8.5% 9.2%
As the most populous Arab nation, Egypt offers an attractive opportunity for
truck OEMs, as its focus has shifted toward modernizing the economy.
Investment in infrastructure is necessary to drive demand for new trucks.
Global CV Outlook 2013: Unit Sales Forecast—Next 11: 2013
Indonesia is set to double its demand for MCV and HCV by 2018.
The Mexican CV demand is set to triple over the 2011 to 2018
period. Economic growth and rise in construction activity, coupled
with the need for replacement of aging fleet vehicles, will drive
growth.
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Bangladesh data is not present, owing to
lack of availability at the time of publication of this study. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Turkey will experience a rising demand for MCVs and
HCVs in 2013, which is based on both export-oriented
production and local sales.
Un
it S
ale
s
7 NC37-18
Global MCV and HCV Market—Powertrain Technology Forecast: Diesel is expected to retain dominant leadership in the powertrain space; natural gas and
hybrid/electric technology are expected to experience rising proliferation in 2013.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
NA SA China India Russia Europe Next 11 RoW
Gasoline 8 2 0.5 0 0 0 2 2.1
HEV 1 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.5 0.4
NG 1.5 0 0.4 0.2 0 0.5 0.5 0.5
Diesel 89.5 98 99.1 99.8 100 99.3 97 97
Global CV Outlook 2013: Powertrain Technology Split by Region—Global: 2013
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Next 11 includes the following countries: Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, Vietnam, and
Bangladesh.
Pe
rce
nta
ge
8 NC37-18
Median range
Analysis of Key Design Parameter Ranges for HD Engine Market (North
America), 2011–2018: Powertrain Downsizing Pushing Weighted Average Engine Displacement to
Under 14 L in Class 8 Trucks by 2018
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Displacement (in L) Torque (in lb. ft.)
2011
2018
2011
2018
2011
2018
Power (in bhp)
300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650
300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650
1100 1250 1400 1550 1700 1850 2000 2150
1100 1250 1400 1550 1700 1850 2000 2150
13.7 L–14.1 L
13.4 L–13.7 L
2%–3%
reduction
400–520 bhp
425–540 bhp
4%–6%
increase
1250–1650 lb. ft.
1300–1750 lb. ft.
4%–6%
increase
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Heavy-duty Engine Market: Diesel Engine Market Overview, North America, 2011
9 NC37-18
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Un
it S
hip
men
t (‘
000s
)
Optimisitc Scenario Frost & Sullivan Scenario Conservative Scenario
Class 6-8 LNG/CNG Trucks Sales Volume Forecast by Scenarios- North America A steady increase in adoption is expected through the forecast period, and Class 6-8 natural gas
truck shipments are expected to reach 35,429 units in 2017.
Class 6-8 Natural Gas Truck Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by Scenarios, North America, 2010–2017
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
226,400 Units
446,100 Units
2010 2017
15,675
44,610
35,429
1,950
2017 Spark Ignition Compression
Ignition
Total
CNG 11,028 2,757 13,785
LNG 11,904 9,740 21,644
Frost & Sullivan Scenario Breakdown
10 NC37-18
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2011 2018
MD HD
Total Units:
15,300
Total Units:
950
HD Truck- 2018
MD Truck - 2018
MD and HD LNG/CNG Trucks Volume Forecast- Europe The heavy-duty segment set to account for 75% of natural gas truck sales in Europe by 2018.
MD and HD Natural Gas CV Market: Truck Production Forecast by Category, Europe, 2011 and 2018
Un
its
LNG 22%
CNG 78%
LNG 65%
CNG 35%
Total: 3,825
Total: 11,475
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan
11 NC37-18
Global Production Volume Forecast by Drivetrain Combined Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Production is to Reach 307,000 by 2020;
Parallel Hybrids and Pure Electrics Will Be the Largest Contributors to This Growth.
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Production Volume Forecast by Drivetrain, Global, 2009-2020
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
0
70,000
140,000
210,000
280,000
350,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020
Electric Series Parallel Series-Parallel
Total Units:
307,858
Total Units:
6,934
2020 Unit Shares
EMEA 2020
Asia 2020
30,487
10,623 4,503
52,584
Outside of the big three (North America,
Europe, and China), Brazil, Japan, India,
and Korea are emerging as countries
offering market penetration potential to
hybrid and electric powertrain modules,
systems, and components suppliers.
Americas
53% Europe
13%
Asia
34%
Americas 48.7%
EMEA 14.8%
Asia 36.5%
North America Brazil Rest of
America
Americas 2020 132,859
10,921 5,962
China Korea Japan India Rest of
Asia
14,277
26,825
16,869
1,948
Pro
du
cti
on
Un
its
Western
Europe
Russia Rest of EMEA
12 NC37-18
Global Hot Spots: Continued economic uncertainty in TRIAD and moderation in growth
rates in BRIC will lead to OEMs shifting focus to Next 11 markets; North America and China are
expected to remain strong growth bets for OEMs.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Europe Economic slowdown to
prolong through 2013, thus
impacting CV demand. EU
OEMs are focusing on Next
11 and RoW for growth.
North America CV market to improve marginally
in 2013 with improving economic
indicators. Stronger growth
expected in 3rd and 4th quarters.
Russia Russia to be the most attractive
among the BRIC countries. Market to
grow by 10 percent in 2013.
South America With the recovering Brazilian
economy and renewed resource
demand, trucking will experience
global growth in 2013.
China Strengthening
manufacturing sector
and infrastructure
development to boost
truck demand.
Next 11 Several Next 11 markets to post near
double-digit growth in new truck sales in
2013. Turkey and Indonesia looking
attractive for long-term sustainable growth.
India Domestic demand to remain strong in
2013 with improving economic
activity. Heavy-duty truck market to
grow more quickly than MCV market.
13 NC37-18
HCV
MCV
2009 2016
21 8 13
14
7
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
TATA Prima
MN 25/40
U-Truck
Sinotruk Howo
AsiaMotorWorks
Daimler Brand X
HD
IVECO LC HCV
MAN Force
Sinotruk HuangHe Hyundai HD
DongFeng DFL
GAZ-FAW HD
Volvo-Eicher VE
DongFeng Duo
IVECO’s Chinese
Platform Based MD
Daimler Brand X
MD
GAZ 3309c
2013
Fuso FG LCT ISUZU FTR
Kamaz LCT HD
VolvoDongFeng
LCT HD
Global CV Outlook 2013: Low-cost Truck Model Timeline—World: 2009–2016
Low-cost Truck Market (Global) Over 21 key global low-cost MCV-HCV model ranges
are expected to be introduced by global OEMs between 2009 and 2016; 2013 is a critical year, as
OEMs strive to introduce low-cost truck platforms for both developing and mature markets.
14 NC37-18
Expected number of global platforms available: 2013
HD OEM Outlook for 2013: Participants with global platform portfolios, strong
presences in growth markets, and regional branding are expected to sustain profits globally
in 2013; Daimler is emerging as a strong benefactor of globalization in 2013.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Daimler
Group
Volvo
Group
MAN SE
Scania AB
PACCAR, Inc.
Dongfeng
Motor
Corp.
Beiqi
Foton
Navistar,
Inc.
IVECO
Ashok
Leyland
Clear global strategy,
strong product mix Global strategy evolving,
strong regional products
Size of bubble represents expected production volume attributable to platform-based HD truck models by 2013
TATA Motors
Profitable
only at
regional level
Sought-after
zone
Sustained
profits
globally
Ove
rall
Glo
ba
l P
rese
nce
In
de
x
CNHTC
Global CV Outlook 2013: OEM Outlook Comparative Analysis—Global: 2013
15 NC37-18
Telematics FMS Opportunities by Country—2013: There is a growing demand in North America, Europe, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa; Middle
East and Asia are likely to gain momentum beyond 2015.
1
2
3
6 7
5
4
2 3 4 5 6 7 1 North America Europe Russia Brazil South Africa Middle East Asia
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Qualcomm,
Trimble/PeopleNet, XATA,
Teletrac, WebTech Wireless,
Telogis, Network Fleet,
FleetMatics, Actsoft, SkyBitz,
ID Systems, and others
MixTelematics, Digicore,
Netstar, Tracker, and others
Potential Countries
Beyond 2015
Autotrac, Zatix, Onixsat,
WirelessCar, and others
Tom Tom, Masternaut, Transics,
Qualcomm, Microlise, FleetBoard, Dynafleet,
MixTelematics, Trimble, Novacom, Schmitz
Cargobull, IDEM-Krone, and others
China GPS, Ltd.;
FleetBoard; Navman
Wireless; Trimble; and
others
Mobiliz, Arvento, Vektor,
Infotech, Solit, Satko, Pergo,
and others
Arya Omnitalk, eLogistics, CMC
Limited, Pricol, Mahindra
Telematics, Ashok Leyland, Trimble,
iTrack, MobiApp, and others
16 NC37-18
Vehicle Electronics: Common Multiplexed Architecture Across OEMs Laying Out a Common Advanced Electrical and Electronics Platform Will Provide Clear Boundaries for
Integration of Electronics in Cabins; This Will Emerge as a Key Foundation for Future Cabin Design Strategies
Need for Robust, Effective and Efficient Electronics, Communication and
Networking Architecture
Infotainment
Regulation
Compliance
OBD
OBD – On-Board Diagnostics; HVAC – Heating Ventilating and Air-Conditioning
HMI – Driver Comfort &
Convenience Controls
Handheld / Personal
Device Connectivity
Telematics
Connectivity
Safety System
Integration
HVAC
Powertrain
Control
Chassis
Control
Development of
architecture in
compliance with SAE
standards.
J1939, J1708, CAN, LIN
etc - vehicle bus
protocol used for
communication and
diagnostics among
vehicle components
MULTIPLEXED
ARCHITECTURE
Enables
seamless
communication
between vehicle
and devices
Single
standardized
platform will
streamline
product
development for
OEMs and Teir1
suppliers
Since, necessary
infrastructure is
available, new
devices addition
will not require
discrete system
integration and
customization
IEC 60068,
ISO 16750
HCV Market : Common Multiplexed Architecture, EU, 2012
17 NC37-18
North America
South America
China
India
Russia
Europe
Next 11 RoW
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
GVWR (kilogram)
Pri
ce
($
)
Global CV 2013: Highest-selling Weight Segment in Each Region—Global: 2013
Size of the bubble: Sales units of top segments in each country in 2013.
Attractive Commercial Truck Segment by Region—2013 The 18 to 25 MT segment is to be the most attractive among heavy trucks globally at a price band
of $40,000 to $60,000, while the 25 to 30 MT segment is to be the most attractive in NA and EU.
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
18 NC37-18
2
3
4
5
6
1
Daimler and Volvo will intensify competition in global markets, with both experiencing success
through low-cost truck market exposure. Chinese, Indian, and Korean OEMs will benefit from
growth in MCV demand in Next 11 and African economies.
Volvo’s acquisition of DongFeng stake is expected to not only place it as a global sales leader in
2013, but also to create synergies and opportunities in medium-duty platforms involving Eicher. This
is likely to prove important for BRIC, Next 11, and RoW growth strategy empowerment
In 2013, 22,700 natural gas and hybrid/electric medium and heavy trucks will be sold, of which 71
percent will be CNG/LNG-powered vehicles, and 29 percent will be hybrid and electric vehicles.
Platform-based MCV and HCV production are set to receive major boosts in 2013, with OEMs’
building and executing capacity aimed at generating nearly 34 percent of total production of MCVs
and HCVs from platforms by 2018.
In 2013, 19 percent and 16 percent of all MCVs and HCVs in operation in North America and
Europe, respectively, will feature in vehicle-installed telematics subscription, offering robust revenue
growth opportunities.
Global sales of medium-heavy trucks are expected to grow at 4.3 percent to reach 2.8 million
units. Both US and China markets are expected to grow more quickly than in 2012, while Europe will
experience negative growth of 6.9 percent.
Key Conclusions
19 NC37-18
Questions?
Sandeep Kar
Global Director-Commercial Vehicles
Research
Toronto, Canada
Direct: 416.490.7796
Fax: 416.490.1533
Email: [email protected]
Jeannette Garcia
Corporate Communications Associate
San Antonio, Texas
Direct: 210.477.8427
Fax: 210.348.1003
Email: [email protected]
20 NC37-18
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