Strategic Mgt Seminar

7/30/2019 Strategic Mgt Seminar

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What is Brainstorming?

Madison Avenue advertising executive, Alex Osborn, developed the original approach to

brainstorming and published it in his 1953 book, "Applied Imagination." Since then,

researchers have made many improvements to his original technique.

The approach described here takes thisresearchinto account, so it's subtly different from

Osborn's approach.

Brainstorming combines a relaxed, informal approach to problem solving with lateral

thinking. It encourages people to come up with thoughts and ideas that can, at first, seem a

bit crazy. Some of these ideas can be crafted into original, creative solutions to a problem,

while others can spark even more ideas. This helps to get people unstuck by "jolting" them

out of their normal ways of thinking.

Therefore, during brainstorming sessions, people should avoid criticizing or rewarding

ideas. You're trying to open up possibilities and break down incorrect assumptions about

the problem's limits. Judgment and analysis at this stage stunts idea generation and limit

creativity.

Evaluate ideas at the end of the brainstorming session this is the time to explore solutions

further, using conventional approaches.

Why Use Brainstorming?

Conventional group problem solving can often be undermined byunhelpful group

behavior. And while it's important to start with astructured, analytical processwhen

solving problems, this can lead a group to develop limited and unimaginative ideas.
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By contrast, brainstorming provides a free and open environment that encourages

everyone to participate. Quirky ideas are welcomed and built upon, and all participants are

encouraged to contribute fully, helping them develop a rich array of creative solutions.

When used during problem solving, brainstorming brings team members' diverse

experience into play. It increases the richness of ideas explored, which means that you can

often find better solutions to the problems that you face.

It can also help you get buy-in from team members for the solution chosen after all,

they're likely to be more committed to an approach if they were involved in developing it.

What's more, because brainstorming is fun, it helps team members bond, as they solve

problems in a positive, rewarding environment.

While brainstorming can be effective, it's important to approach it with an open mind and a

spirit of non-judgment. If you don't do this, people "clam up," the number and quality of

ideas plummets, and morale can suffer.

Individual Brainstorming

While group brainstorming is often more effective at generating ideas than normal group

problem solving, severalstudieshave shown that individual brainstorming produces more

and often better ideas than group brainstorming.

This can occur because groups aren't always strict in following the rules of brainstorming,

and bad behaviors creep in. Mostly, though, this happens because people pay so much

attention to other people that they don't generate ideas of their own or they forget these

ideas while they wait for their turn to speak. This is called "blocking."

When you brainstorm on your own, you don't have to worry about other people's egos or

opinions, and you can be freer and more creative. For example, you might find that an idea
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you'd hesitate to bring up in a group develops into something special when you explore it

on your own.

However, you may not develop ideas as fully when you brainstorm on your own, because

you don't have the wide experience of other group members to draw on.

Tip:

To get the most out of your individual brainstorming session, choose a comfortable place to

sit and think. Minimizedistractionsso that you can focus on the problem at hand, and

consider usingMind Mapsto arrange and develop ideas.

Individual brainstorming is most effective when you need to solve a simple problem,

generate a list of ideas, or focus on a broad issue. Group brainstorming is often more

effective for solving complex problems.

Group Brainstorming

With group brainstorming, you can take advantage of the full experience and creativity of

all team members. When one member gets stuck with an idea, another member's creativity

and experience can take the idea to the next stage. You can develop ideas in greater depth

with group brainstorming than you can with individual brainstorming.

Another advantage of group brainstorming is that it helps everyone feel that they've

contributed to the solution, and it reminds people that others have creative ideas to offer.

Brainstorming is also fun, so it can be great for team building!
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Group brainstorming can be risky for individuals. Unusual suggestions may appear to lack

value at first sight this is where you need to chair sessions tightly, so that the group

doesn't crush these ideas and stifle creativity.

Where possible, brainstorming participants should come from a wide range of disciplines.

This cross-section of experience can make the session more creative. However, don't make

the group too big: as with other types of teamwork, groups of five to seven people are

usually most effective.

How to Use the Tool

You often get the best results by combining individual and group brainstorming, and by

managing the process according to the "rules" below. By doing this, you can get people to

focus on the issue without interruption, you maximize the number of ideas that you can

generate, and you get that great feeling of team bonding that comes with a well-run

brainstorming session!

To run a group brainstorming session effectively, follow these steps.

Step 1: Prepare the Group

First, set up acomfortable meeting environmentfor the session. Make sure that the

room is well-lit and that you have the tools, resources, and refreshments that you need.

How much information or preparation does your team need in order to brainstorm

solutions to your problem? Remember that prep is important, but too much can limit or

even destroy

the freewheeling nature of a brainstorming session.

Consider who will attend the meeting. A room full of like-minded people won't generate as

many creative ideas as a diverse group, so try to include people from a wide range of

disciplines, and include people who have a variety of different thinking styles.
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When everyone is gathered, appoint one person to record the ideas that come from the

session. This person shouldn't necessarily be the team manager it's hard to record and

contribute at the same time. Post notes where everyone can see them, such as on flip charts

or whiteboards; or use a computer with a data projector.

If people aren't used to working together, consider using an appropriate warm-up exercise,

or anicebreaker.

Step 2: Present the Problem

Clearly define the problem that you want to solve, and lay out any criteria that you must

meet. Make it clear that that the meeting's objective is to generate as many ideas as

possible.

Give people plenty of quiet time at the start of the session to write down as many of their

own ideas as they can. Then, ask them to share their ideas, while giving everyone a fair

opportunity to contribute.

Step 3: Guide the Discussion

Once everyone has shared their ideas, start a group discussion to develop other people's

ideas, and use them to create new ideas. Building on others' ideas is one of the most

valuable aspects of group brainstorming.

Encourage everyone to contribute and to develop ideas, including the quietest people, and

discourage anyone from criticizing ideas.

As the group facilitator, you should share ideas if you have them, but spend your time and

energy supporting your team and guiding the discussion. Stick to one conversation at a

time, and refocus the group if people become sidetracked.
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Although you're guiding the discussion, remember to let everyone have fun while

brainstorming. Welcome creativity, and encourage your team to come up with as many

ideas as possible, regardless of whether they're practical or impractical. Use thought

experiments such asProvocationorRandom Inputto generate some unexpected ideas.

Don't follow one train of thought for too long. Make sure that you generate a good number

of different ideas, and explore individual ideas in detail. If a team member needs to "tune

out" to explore an idea alone, allow them the freedom to do this.

Also, if the brainstorming session is lengthy, take plenty of breaks so that people can

continue to concentrate.

Taking Your Brainstorming Further

If you're not getting enough good quality ideas, try using the approaches below to increase

the number of ideas that you generate:

The Stepladder Technique This improves the contribution of quieter group

members by introducing one person at a time.

Brainwriting This is a written approach that you can use to encourage all

individuals to generate and develop ideas.

Brain-netting An electronic method of brainstorming, this uses a document

stored on a central server, or on a Cloud-based system.

Crawford's Slip Writing Approach You can use this approach to get plenty of

ideas from all participants, and to get a view of each idea's popularity.

These techniques help you in specific brainstorming situations:

Reverse Brainstorming This is used to improve a product or service.
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Starbursting Starbursting helps you develop questions that you need to ask to

evaluate a proposal.

Charette Procedure This helps you brainstorm with large groups of people.

(Conventional brainstorming becomes increasingly ineffective when more than 10

or 12 people are involved.)

Round-Robin Brainstorming You can use this approach to get people to

contribute ideas without being influenced by others.

Rolestorming This technique encourages group members to take on other

people's identities while brainstorming, thereby reducing their inhibitions.

The Next Step Taking Action

After your individual or group brainstorming session, you'll have a lot of ideas. Although it

might seem hard to sort through these ideas to find the best ones, analyzing these ideas is

an important next step, and you can use several tools to do this.

UseAffinity Diagramsto organize ideas and find common themes.

Grid AnalysisandPaired Comparison Analysiswill help you choose between different

options. You can also use theSix Thinking Hatstechnique to look at ideas from different

perspectives; andNominal Group TechniqueandMulti-Votingcan help you choose

between options as a team, particularly where the differences between options are quite

subjective.
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BRAINSTORMING

Brainstorming is agroup or individual creativity techniqueby which efforts are made to

find a conclusion for a specific problem by gathering a list of ideas spontaneously

contributed by its member(s). The term was popularized byAlex Faickney Osbornin the1953 bookApplied Imagination. Osborn claimed that brainstorming was more

effective than individuals working alone in generating ideas, although more recent

research has questioned this conclusion.[1]Today, the term is used as a catch all for all

groupideationsessions.

brainstorming activity conducting

Following these two principles were his four general rules of brainstorming,

established with intention to :

reduce social inhibitions among group members,

stimulate idea generation

increase overall creativity of the group.

1. Focus on quantity: This rule is a means of enhancing divergent production,

aiming to facilitate problem solving through the maxim quantity breeds

quality. The assumption is that the greater the number of ideas generated, the

greater the chance of producing a radical and effective solution.

2. Withhold criticism: In brainstorming,criticismof ideas generated should be put

'on hold'. Instead, participants should focus on extending or adding to ideas,

reserving criticism for a later 'critical stage' of the process. By suspending

judgment, participants will feel free to generate unusual ideas.

3. Welcome unusual ideas: To get a good and long list of ideas, unusual ideas are

welcomed. They can be generated by looking from new perspectives and

suspending assumptions. These new ways of thinking may provide better

solutions.

4. Combine and improve ideas: Good ideas may be combined to form a single

better good idea, as suggested by the slogan "1+1=3". It is believed to

stimulate the building of ideas by a process ofassociation.[2]

Applications

Osborn notes that brainstorming should address a specific question; he held that

sessions addressing multiple questions were inefficient.
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Further, the problem must require the generation of ideas rather than judgment; he

uses examples such as generating possible names for a product as proper

brainstorming material, whereas analytical judgments such as whether or not to marry

do not have any need for brainstorming.[2]

Brainstorming groups

Osborn envisioned groups of around 12 participants, including both experts and

novices. Participants are encouraged to provide wild and unexpected answers. Ideas

receive no criticism or discussion. The group simply provides ideas that might lead to

a solution and apply no analytical judgement as to the feasibility. The judgements are

reserved for a later date.[2]

Variations

Nominal group technique

Participants are asked to write their ideas anonymously. Then the facilitator collects

the ideas and the group votes on each idea. The vote can be as simple as a show of

hands in favor of a given idea. This process is called distillation.

After distillation, the top ranked ideas may be sent back to the group or to subgroups

for further brainstorming. For example, one group may work on the color required in a

product. Another group may work on the size, and so forth. Each group will come

back to the whole group for ranking the listed ideas. Sometimes ideas that were

previously dropped may be brought forward again once the group has re-evaluated the

ideas.

It is important that the facilitator be trained in this process before attempting to

facilitate this technique. The group should be primed and encouraged to embrace the

process. Like all team efforts, it may take a few practice sessions to train the team in

the method before tackling the important ideas.

Group passing technique

Each person in a circular group writes down one idea, and then passes the piece ofpaper to the next person, who adds some thoughts. This continues until everybody

gets his or her original piece of paper back. By this time, it is likely that the group will

have extensively elaborated on each idea.

The group may also create an "idea book" and post a distribution list or routing slip to

the front of the book. On the first page is a description of the problem. The first
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person to receive the book lists his or her ideas and then routes the book to the next

person on the distribution list. The second person can log new ideas or add to the

ideas of the previous person. This continues until the distribution list is exhausted. A

follow-up "read out" meeting is then held to discuss the ideas logged in the book. This

technique takes longer, but it allows individuals time to think deeply about the

problem.

Team idea mapping method

This method of brainstorming works by the method ofassociation. It may improve

collaboration and increase the quantity of ideas, and is designed so that all attendees

participate and no ideas are rejected.

The process begins with a well-defined topic. Each participant brainstorms

individually, then all the ideas are merged onto one large idea map. During this

consolidation phase, participants may discover a common understanding of the issuesas they share the meanings behind their ideas. During this sharing, new ideas may

arise by the association, and they are added to the map as well. Once all the ideas are

captured, the group can prioritize and/or take action.[3]

Electronic brainstorming

It is a computerized version of the manual brainstorming technique typically

supported by anelectronic meeting system(EMS) but simpler forms can also be done via

email and may be browser based, or use peer-to-peer software.

With an electronic meeting system, participants share a list of ideas over a network.

Ideas are entered independently. Contributions become immediately visible to all and

are typically anonymized to encourage openness and reduce personal prejudice.

Modern EMS also support asynchronous brainstorming sessions over extended

periods of time as well as typical follow-up activities in the creative problem solving

process such as categorization of ideas, elimination of duplicates, assessment and

discussion of prioritized or controversial ideas.

Proponents such as Gallupe et al. argue that electronic brainstorming eliminates many

of the problems of standard brainstorming, including production blocking (i.e. groupmembers must take turns to express their ideas) and evaluation apprehension (i.e. fear

of being judged by others). This positive effect increases with larger groups[4]A

perceived advantage of this format is that all ideas can be archived electronically in

their original form, and then retrieved later for further thought and discussion.

Electronic brainstorming also enables much larger groups to brainstorm on a topic

than would normally be productive in a traditional brainstorming session.[5]
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When exposed to others ideas, attention is focused by the group member on these

ideas and this attention has been proposed to cognitively stimulate the

brainstormer[4]Therefore, the individual members of the brainstorming group perform

better during the session because people see everyone elses ideas on the computer

screen (via chat room or e-mail), explaining the positive effects of EBS. Additionally,

during an EBS session, participants have control over their activity and can attend tothe ideas of others while also creating their own, continually exposing paticipants to a

flow of ideas. EBS techniques have been shown to produce more ideas and help

individuals focus their attention on the ideas of others better than a brainwriting

technique (participants write individual written notes in silence and then subsequently

communicate them with the group)[4]The production of more ideas has been linked to

the fact that paying attention to others ideas leads to non-redundency, as one will try

to avoid to replicate or repeat another participants comment or idea.

The fact that individuals are not physically visible has also been shown to be an

important component to the superiority of EBS over other methods, such as

brainwriting. Due to the fact that participants are not typically in a room with the

group, social cues such as facial expression and verbal language are not available, and

therefore, attention is paid to the task at hand and the ideas rather than the people

involved[4]

Some web-based brainstorming techniques allow contributors to post their comments

anonymously through the use of avatars. This technique also allows users to log on

over an extended time period, typically one or two weeks, to allow participants some

"soak time" before posting their ideas and feedback. This technique has been used

particularly in the field of new product development, but can be applied in any

number of areas requiring collection and evaluation of ideas.

Some limitations of EBS include the fact that it can flood people with too many ideas

at one time that they have to attend to, and people may also compare their

performance to others by analyzing how many ideas each individual produces (social

matching).

Directed brainstorming

Directed brainstorming is a variation of electronic brainstorming (described above). Itcan be done manually or with computers. Directed brainstorming works when the

solution space (that is, the set of criteria for evaluating a good idea) is known prior to

the session. If known, those criteria can be used to constrain theIdeationprocess

intentionally.
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In directed brainstorming, each participant is given one sheet of paper (or electronic

form) and told the brainstorming question. They are asked to produce one response

and stop, then all of the papers (or forms) are randomly swapped among the

participants. The participants are asked to look at the idea they received and to create

a new idea that improves on that idea based on the initial criteria. The forms are then

swapped again and respondents are asked to improve upon the ideas, and the processis repeated for three or more rounds.

In the laboratory, directed brainstorming has been found to almost triple the

productivity of groups over electronic brainstorming.[6]

Guided brainstorming

A guided brainstorming session is time set aside to brainstorm either individually or

as a collective group about a particular subject under the constraints of perspective

and time. This type of brainstorming removes all cause for conflict and constrainsconversations while stimulating critical and creative thinking in an engaging, balanced

environment. Innovative ideas consistently emerge.

Participants are asked to adopt different mindsets for pre-defined period of time while

contributing their ideas to a central mind map drawn by a pre-appointed scribe.

Having examined a multi-perspective point of view, participants seemingly see the

simple solutions that collectively create greater growth. Action is assigned

individually.

Following a guided brainstorming session participants emerge with ideas ranked forfurther brainstorming, research and questions remaining unanswered and a prioritized,

assigned, actionable list that leaves everyone with a clear understanding of what needs

to happen next and the ability to visualize the combined future focus and greater goals

of the group.

www.theglobalbrainstorm.com is currently Beta testing the mass use of this way of

working and will publish results. 12 months of field trials report a consistent time

saving of 75% (reducing 1 hour brainstorming sessions to 15 minutes), increased

levels of contribution, productivity and motivation and a frequent emergence of

innovative ideas.

Individual brainstorming

"Individual brainstorming" is the use of brainstorming in solitary. It typically includes

such techniques asfree writing, free speaking, word association, and drawing amind

map, which is a visual note taking technique in which people diagram their thoughts.
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Individual brainstorming is a useful method increative writingand has been shown to

be superior to traditional group brainstorming.[7]

Research has shown individual brainstorming to be more effective in idea-generation

than group brainstorming.[1]

Question brainstorming

This process involves brainstorming the questions, rather than trying to come up with

immediate answers and short term solutions. Theoretically, this technique should not

inhibit participation as there is no need to provide solutions. The answers to the

questions form the framework for constructing future action plans. Once the list of

questions is set, it may be necessary to prioritize them to reach to the best solution in

an orderly way.[8]

Delphi methodFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Delphi method (pron.: /dlfa/DEL-fy) is a structured communication technique,

originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a

panel of experts.[1][2][3][4]The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds.

After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts

forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their

judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of thereplies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the

range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct"

answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number

of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and

the mean ormedian scores of the final rounds determine the results.[5]

Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group

of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups.[6]The technique

can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or

Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE). Delphi has been widely used for business forecastingand has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction

markets.[7]
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History

The name "Delphi" derives from the Oracle of Delphi. The authors of the method

were not happy with this name, because it implies "something oracular, something

smacking a little of the occult".

[citation needed]

The Delphi method is based on theassumption that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.

The Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the Cold Warto forecast the

impact of technology on warfare.[8]In 1944, General Henry H. Arnold ordered the

creation of the report for the U.S. Army Air Corps on the future technological

capabilities that might be used by the military.

Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of

traditional forecasting methods, such as theoretical approach, quantitative models or

trend extrapolation, in areas where precise scientific laws have not been established

yet, quickly became apparent. To combat these shortcomings, the Delphi method wasdeveloped by Project RANDduring the 1950-1960s (1959) by Olaf Helmer, Norman

Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher.[9]It has been used ever since, together with various

modifications and reformulations, such as the Imen-Delphiprocedure.

Experts were asked to give their opinion on the probability, frequency, and intensity

of possible enemy attacks. Other experts could anonymously give feedback. This

process was repeated several times until a consensus emerged.

Key characteristics

The Delphi Method communication structure
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The following key characteristics of the Delphi method help the participants to focus

on the issues at hand and separate Delphi from other methodologies:

Anonymity of the participants

Usually all participants remain anonymous. Their identity is not revealed, even afterthe completion of the final report. This prevents the authority, personality, or

reputation of some participants from dominating others in the process. Arguably, it

also frees participants (to some extent) from their personal biases, minimizes the

"bandwagon effect" or"halo effect", allows free expression of opinions, encourages

open critique, and facilitates admission of errors when revising earlier judgments.

Structuring of information flow

The initial contributions from the experts are collected in the form of answers to

questionnaires and their comments to these answers. The panel director controls theinteractions among the participants by processing the information and filtering out

irrelevant content. This avoids the negative effects of face-to-face panel discussions

and solves the usual problems of group dynamics.

Regular feedback

Participants comment on their own forecasts, the responses of others and on the

progress of the panel as a whole. At any moment they can revise their earlier

statements. While in regular group meetings participants tend to stick to previously

stated opinions and often conform too much to the group leader; the Delphi methodprevents it.

Role of the facilitator

The person coordinating the Delphi method can be known as afacilitator, and

facilitates the responses of theirpanel of experts, who are selected for a reason,

usually that they hold knowledge on an opinion or view. The facilitator sends out

questionnaires, surveys etc. and if the panel of experts accept, they follow instructions

and present their views. Responses are collected and analyzed, then common and

conflicting viewpoints are identified. If consensus is not reached, the processcontinues through thesis and antithesis, to gradually work towards synthesis, and

building consensus.
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Applications

Use in forecasting

First applications of the Delphi method were in the field of science and technology

forecasting. The objective of the method was to combine expert opinions on

likelihood and expected development time, of the particular technology, in a single

indicator. One of the first such reports, prepared in 1964 by Gordon and Helmer,

assessed the direction of long-term trends in science and technology development,

covering such topics as scientific breakthroughs, population control, automation,

space progress, war prevention and weapon systems. Other forecasts of technology

were dealing with vehicle-highway systems, industrial robots, intelligent internet,

broadband connections, and technology in education.

Later the Delphi method was applied in other areas, especially those related to public

policy issues, such as economic trends, health and education. It was also applied

successfully and with high accuracy in business forecasting. For example, in one case

reported by Basu and Schroeder (1977),[10]the Delphi method predicted the sales of a

new product during the first two years with inaccuracy of 34% compared with actual

sales. Quantitative methods produced errors of 1015%, and traditional unstructured

forecast methods had errors of about 20%.

The Delphi method has also been used as a tool to implement multi-stakeholder

approaches for participative policy-making in developing countries. The governments

of Latin America and the Caribbean have successfully used the Delphi method as an

open-ended public-private sector approach to identify the most urgent challenges fortheir regionalICT-for-development eLAC Action Plans.[11]As a result, governments

have widely acknowledged the value of collective intelligence from civil society,

academic and private sector participants of the Delphi, especially in a field of rapid

change, such as technology policies.

Use in policy-making

From the 1970s, the use of the Delphi technique in public policy-making introduces a

number of methodological innovations. In particular:

the need to examine several types of items (not onlyforecasting items but,

typically, issue items, goalitems, and option items) leads to introducing

different evaluation scales which are not used in the standard Delphi. These

often include desirability,feasibility(technical and political) andprobability,

which the analysts can use to outline different scenarios: the desiredscenario
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(from desirability), thepotentialscenario (from feasibility) and

the expectedscenario (from probability);

the complexity of the issues posed in public policy-making leads to give more

importance to the arguments supporting the evaluations of the panelists; so

these are often invited to list arguments for and against each option item, andsometimes they are given the possibility to suggest new items to be submitted

to the panel;

for the same reason, the scaling methods, which are used to measure panel

evaluations, often include more sophisticated approaches such as multi-

dimensional scaling.

Further innovations come from the use of computer-based (and later web-based)

Delphi conferences. According to Turoff and Hiltz,[12]in computer-based Delphis:

the iteration structure used in the paper Delphis, which is divided into three ormore discrete rounds, can be replaced by a process of continuous (roundless)

interaction, enabling panelists to change their evaluations at any time;

the statistical group response can be updated in real-time, and shown

whenever a panelist provides a new evaluation.

According to Bolognini,[13]web-based Delphis offer two further possibilities, relevant

in the context of interactive policy-making and e-democracy. These are:

A web-based communication structure (Hyperdelphi).[13]

the involvement of a large number of participants,

the use of two or more panels representing different groups (such as policy-

makers, experts, citizens), which the administrator can give tasks reflectingtheir diverse roles and expertise, and make them to interact within ad hoc

communication structures. For example, thepolicy communitymembers

(policy-makers and experts) may interact as part of the main conference panel,

while they receive inputs from a virtual community(citizens, associations etc.)

involved in a side conference. These web-based variable communication

structures, which he calls Hyperdelphi(HD), are designed to make Delphi
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conferences "more fluid and adapted to the hypertextual and interactive

nature of digital communication".

One successful example of a (partially) web-based policy Delphi is the five-round

Delphi exercise (with 1,454 contributions) for the creation of the eLAC Action

Plans in Latin America. It is believed to be the most extensive online participatory

policy-making foresight exercise in the history of intergovernmental processes in the

developing world at this time.[11]In addition to the specific policy guidance provided,

the authors list the following lessons learned include "(1) the potential of Policy

Delphi methods to introduce transparency and accountability into public decision-

making, especially in developing countries; (2) the utility of foresight exercises to

foster multi-agency networking in the development community; (3) the usefulness of

embedding foresight exercises into established mechanisms of representative

democracy and international multilateralism, such as the United Nations; (4) the

potential of online tools to facilitate participation in resource-scarce developing

countries; and (5) the resource-efficiency stemming from the scale of international

foresight exercises, and therefore its adequacy for resource-scarce regions."[11]

Online Delphi systems

Main article: Real-time Delphi

A number of Delphi forecasts are conducted using web sites that allow the process to

be conducted in real-time. For instance, the TechCast Project uses a panel of 100

experts worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields of science and technology.

Another example is the Horizon Project, where educational futurists collaborate

online using the Delphi method to come up with the technological advancements to

look out for in education for the next few years.

Variations

Traditionally the Delphi method has aimed at a consensus of the most probable future

by iteration. Other versions, such as the Policy Delphi,[14][15]In Europe, more recent

web-based experiments have used the Delphi method as a communication technique

for interactive decision-making and e-democracy.[16]

is instead a decision supportmethod aiming at structuring and discussing the diverse views of the preferred future.

The Argument Delphi, was developed by Osmo Kuusi, focuses on ongoing discussion

and finding relevant arguments rather than focusing on the output. The Disaggregative

Policy Delphi, developed by Petri Tapio, uses cluster analysis as a systematic tool to

construct various scenarios of the future in the latest Delphi round.[17]The
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELAC_Action_Planshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELAC_Action_Planshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-HilbertMilesOthmer2009-11http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-HilbertMilesOthmer2009-11http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-HilbertMilesOthmer2009-11http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-HilbertMilesOthmer2009-11http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-HilbertMilesOthmer2009-11http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-HilbertMilesOthmer2009-11http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real-time_Delphihttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TechCast_Projecthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizon_Projecthttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-14http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-14http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-14http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision-makinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-democracyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-16http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-16http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-16http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-17http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-17http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-17http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-17http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-16http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-democracyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision-makinghttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-14http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-14http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizon_Projecthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TechCast_Projecthttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real-time_Delphihttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-HilbertMilesOthmer2009-11http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-HilbertMilesOthmer2009-11http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELAC_Action_Planshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELAC_Action_Plans


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respondent's view on the probable and the preferable future are dealt with as separate

cases.

Discussion

Overall the track record of the Delphi method is mixed. There have been many cases

when the method produced poor results. Still, some authors attribute this to poor

application of the method and not to the weaknesses of the method itself.[citation needed] It

must also be realized that in areas such as science and technology forecasting, the

degree of uncertainty is so great that exact and always correct predictions are

impossible, so a high degree of error is to be expected.

Another particular weakness of the Delphi method is that future developments are not

always predicted correctly by consensus of experts. Firstly, the issue of ignorance is

important. If panelists are misinformed about a topic, the use of Delphi may only add

confidence to their ignorance.[18]Secondly, sometimes unconventional thinking of

amateur outsiders may be superior to expert thinking.

One of the initial problems of the method was its inability to make complex forecasts

with multiple factors. Potential future outcomes were usually considered as if they had

no effect on each other. Later on, several extensions to the Delphi method were

developed to address this problem, such as cross impact analysis, that takes into

consideration the possibility that the occurrence of one event may change probabilities

of other events covered in the survey. Still the Delphi method can be used most

successfully in forecasting single scalar indicators.

Despite these shortcomings, today the Delphi method is a widely accepted forecasting

tool and has been used successfully for thousands of studies in areas varying from

technology forecasting to drug abuse.[19]

Delphi vs. prediction markets

Delphi has characteristics similar to prediction markets as both are structured

approaches that aggregate diverse opinions from groups. Yet, there are differences

that may be decisive for their relative applicability for different problems.[7]

Some advantages ofprediction markets derive from the possibility to provide

incentives for participation.

1. They can motivate people to participate over a long period of time and to

reveal their true beliefs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_neededhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_neededhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_neededhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-18http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-18http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-18http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Cross_impact_analysis&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drug_abusehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-19http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-19http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-19http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_marketshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-kag-7http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-kag-7http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-kag-7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_marketshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_marketshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-kag-7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_marketshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-19http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drug_abusehttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Cross_impact_analysis&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Delphi_method&printable=yes#cite_note-18http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed


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2. They aggregate information automatically and instantly incorporate new

information in the forecast.

3. Participants do not have to be selected and recruited manually by a facilitator.

They themselves decide whether to participate if they think their private

information is not yet incorporated in the forecast.

Delphi seems to have these advantages over prediction markets:

1. Participants reveal their reasoning

2. It is easier to maintain confidentiality

3. Potentially quicker forecasts if experts are readily available.

The 7Cs of Consulting

Mick Cope's The 7Cs of Consulting should be required reading for all budding and and evenexperienced consultants.

It presents an impressive array of tools, techniques and guidance at every step of the way throughan assignment .... irrespective of the length of that assignment.

Most importantly, it sits neatly alongside both project management and change managementmethodologies, forming a powerful triumvirate for internal consultants and Program/ChangeManagement functions and Project Offices within an organization.

The 7Cs of Consulting should be part of the PMO/CMO setup for any organization in the public or

private sector and is a welcome addition to the consultant's library.

The 7Cs of Consultancy

The 7Cs of Consulting applies,

no matter whether your

consultancy assignment is 1

month or 1 year.

The approach should broadly

follow Mick Cope's seven bestpractice stages.

The 7Cs of Consulting.

Here are the 7 stages we suggest you commit them to memory:

1. Client - understand the requirements
http://www.e-service-expert.com/books.html


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2. Clarify - the nature of the problem3. Create - plan of action4. Change - defined5. Confirm - check result6. Continue - ensure continuity7. Close - publish measured outcomes

Management Consulting Methodology

What is a consulting methodology?

Consulting methodologies are methods or approaches used by consultants in tackling a

particular challenge, problem or client engagement.

Characteristics of a consulting methodology

Consulting methodologies typically possess some or all of the following characteristics:

Based on a coherent set of design principles, concepts and theories

Supported by a body of research undertaken either in an academic or commercial

environment

Enable a particular challenge to be tackled in a structured and systematic fashion

with a high probability of achieving particular beneficial outcomes

Likely to have been used in similar situations a number of times before and through

use and application the methodology is likely to have been refined and improved

The value of a methodology

Management consultants benefit greatly from operating by reference to proven consulting

methodologies. A consulting methodology provides a frame of reference, structure and

often a prescribed set of activities and tasks that will be undertaken in a particular and

logical order.

Examples of consulting methodologies

Across all mainstream consulting disciplines there are numerous examples of consulting

methodologies; some common examples are set out below:

Software development methodology

In software development there are two broad categories of methodology or approach. First,the traditional development approach that starts with capturing business requirements

and then progresses sequentially through design, development, testing and

implementation.

As an alternative, many IT professionals make use of what is referred to as a Rapid

Application Development methodology which generally is a much more rapid and


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pragmatic approach. Central to RAD is the requirement that experts from the business and

technology arenas work closely together in collaboration through all stages of the project.

This methodology offers the potential for a number of advantages including reducing the

risk of misunderstandings on business requirements and increasing the likelihood of the

project been completed in a shorter time frame.

Project management methodology

Most management consulting assignments need to be planned and executed as discrete

projects. PRINCE2 is widely held to be the leading best-practice project management

methodology. The method provides a proven framework in addition to a coherent set of

tools that together support a structured yet flexible approach to managing a project

through it's life cycle.

Business process improvement methodologyAnother very common consulting methodology is Lean Six Sigma which has been widely

adopted in many process based businesses and industries, and is thought by many to be the

most effective method for the design and optimization of business processes.

Organizational Sub - Control Techniques

Control techniques provide managers with the type and amount of information they

need to measure and monitor performance. The information from various controls must

be tailored to a specific management level, department, unit, or operation.

To ensure complete and consistent information, organizations often use standardized

documents such as financial, status, and project reports. Each area within an

organization, however, uses its own specific control techniques, described in the

following sections.

Financial controls

After the organization has strategies in place to reach its goals, funds are set aside for

the necessary resources and labor. As money is spent, statements are updated to

reflect how much was spent, how it was spent, and what it obtained. Managers use

these financial statements, such as an income statement or balance sheet, to monitor

the progress of programs and plans. Financial statements provide management with

information to monitor financial resources and activities. Theincome statement shows

the results of the organization's operations over a period of time, such as revenues,


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expenses, and profit or loss. The balance sheetshows what the organization is worth

(assets) at a single point in time, and the extent to which those assets were financed

through debt (liabilities) or owner's investment (equity).

Financial audits, or formal investigations, are regularly conducted to ensure that

financial management practices follow generally accepted procedures, policies, laws,

and ethical guidelines. Audits may be conducted internally or externally. Financial

ratio analysis examines the relationship between specific figures on the financial

statements and helps explain the significance of those figures:

Liquidity ratios measure an organization's ability to generate cash.

Profitability ratios measure an organization's ability to generate profits.

Debt ratios measure an organization's ability to pay its debts.

Activity ratios measure an organization's efficiency in operations and use of

assets.

In addition, financial responsibility centers require managers to account for a unit's

progress toward financial goals within the scope of their influences. A manager's goalsand responsibilities may focus on unit profits, costs, revenues, or investments.

Budget controls

A budget depicts how much an organization expects to spend (expenses) and earn

(revenues) over a time period. Amounts are categorized according to the type of

business activity or account, such as telephone costs or sales of catalogs. Budgets not

only help managers plan their finances, but also help them keep track of their overall

spending.

A budget, in reality, is both a planning tool and a control mechanism. Budget

development processes vary among organizations according to who does the budgeting

and how the financial resources are allocated. Some budget development methods are

as follows:

Top-down budgeting. Managers prepare the budget and send it to

subordinates.

Bottom-up budgeting. Figures come from the lower levels and are adjusted and

coordinated as they move up the hierarchy.

Zero-based budgeting. Managers develop each new budget by justifying theprojected allocation against its contribution to departmental or organizational

goals.

Flexible budgeting. Any budget exercise can incorporate flexible budgets, which

set meet or beat standards that can be compared to expenditures.


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Marketing controls

Marketing controls help monitor progress toward goals for customer satisfaction with

products and services, prices, and delivery. The following are examples of controls used

to evaluate an organization's marketing functions:

Market research gathers data to assess customer needsinformation critical to

an organization's success. Ongoing market research reflects how well an

organization is meeting customers' expectations and helps anticipate customer

needs. It also helps identify competitors.

Test marketing is small-scale product marketing to assess customer acceptance.

Using surveys and focus groups, test marketing goes beyond identifying general

requirements and looks at what (or who) actually influences buying decisions.

Marketing statistics measure performance by compiling data and analyzing

results. In most cases, competency with a computer spreadsheet program is all a

manager needs. Managers look at marketing ratios, which measure profitability,

activity, and market shares, as well as sales quotas, which measure progresstoward sales goals and assist with inventory controls.

Unfortunately, scheduling a regular evaluation of an organization's marketing program

is easier to recommend than to execute. Usually, only a crisis, such as increased

competition or a sales drop, forces a company to take a closer look at its marketing

program. However, more regular evaluations help minimize the number of marketing

problems.

Human resource controls

Human resource controls help managers regulate the quality of newly hired personnel,

as well as monitor current employees' developments and daily performances.

Computers and information controls

Almost all organizations have confidential and sensitive information that they don't

want to become general knowledge. Controlling access to computer databases is the

key to this area.

Performance limitations. Although management information systems have the

potential to increase overall performance, replacing long-time organizational

employees with information systems technology may result in the loss of expert

knowledge that these individuals hold

Behavioral limitations. Information technology allows managers to access more

information than ever before. But too much information can overwhelm

employees, cause stress, and even slow decision making.


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Health risks. Potentially serious health-related issues associated with the use of

computers and other information technology have been raised in recent years. An

example is carpal tunnel syndrome, a painful disorder in the hands and wrists

caused by repetitive movements (such as those made on a keyboard).

Regardless of the control processes used, an effective system determines whether

Documents

Strategic Mgt Seminar