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ACT – Leading NATO
Military Transformation
Supreme
Allied
Commander
Transformation
NATO UNCLASSIFIED
NATO UNCLASSIFIED
PUBLICLY DISCLOSED21 October 2015 1
Strategic Foresight Analysis
Interim Update Workshop - II
RADM Pete GUMATAOTAO (US Navy)
Deputy Chief of Staff Strategic Plans and Policy
21-22 October 2015
ACT – Leading NATO
Military Transformation
Supreme
Allied
Commander
Transformation
NATO UNCLASSIFIED
21 October 2015 2
Strategic Foresight Analysis
Interim Update Workshop - II
Col Tibor Szabo (HUN AF)
Strategic Analysis BH, Strategic Plans and Policy
21-22 October 2015
NATO UNCLASSIFIED
PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
ACT – Leading NATO
Military Transformation
NATO UNCLASSIFIED
ACT – Leading NATO
Military Transformation
NATO UNCLASSIFIED
NATO UNCLASSIFIED
PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
INFORMS
What do the current trends
indicate about the world 15 or
more years in the future?
What could this mean for
future alliance operations?
What are NATO's future capability
requirements that should guide
targeting, development and
acquisition?
10 Instability Situations
5 Strategic Military Perspectives
Military Implications
INFORMS
NATO Defence Planning Process
15 Long-Range Trends
8 Emergent Trends
Long-Term Military Transformation
21 October 2015
These documents provide the critical first step in NATO’s
Long-Term Military Transformation (LTMT) effort
ACT – Leading NATO
Military Transformation
• Strategic Discussion
• Alignment of National Defence Plans
• NATO Defence Planning
• Capability Development
• Concept Development
• Doctrine, Training, Exercises,
Leadership, Education
5
Our proposal to the Nations to inform
“The Strategic Commanders recommend that NATO develops operationally agile
forces that are resilient, strategically aware, supported by proactive strategic
communications, and networked with a wide range of security partners.”
Bi-SCs’ best military advice on
long-term transformation.
21 October 2015 NATO UNCLASSIFIED
PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
ACT – Leading NATO
Military Transformation
NATO UNCLASSIFIED
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M
SF
AF
FA
O
The Way Ahead
OCT - SFA
Workshop
JUN - SFA
Workshop 2
SEP - SFA 2017
Published
SEP – FFAO
2015
Published
MAR- Instability
Situations
Workshop
JUN - FFAO
2018
Published
SEP – FFAO
Scoping
Workshop
MAR –
Feedback/Gap
Analysis Workshop
SEP - SFA
Workshop 3
MAR - SFA
Workshop 1
MAR-
Writing
Workshop
JUN- Military
Implications
Workshop
AUG- Writing
Workshop
DEC – SFA 15
Update
Published
21 October 2015 NATO UNCLASSIFIED
PUBLICLY DISCLOSED
ACT – Leading NATO
Military Transformation
Supreme
Allied
Commander
Transformation
NATO UNCLASSIFIED
21 October 2015 7
Strategic Foresight Analysis
Interim Update Workshop - II
Col Tibor Szabo
Strategic Analysis BH, Strategic Plans and Policy
21-22 October 2015
NATO UNCLASSIFIED
PUBLICLY DISCLOSED