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MEDICAL DEVICES PHARMACEUTICALS CHEMICALS FOOD & BEVERAGE ELECTRONICS
Strategic Analysis of Hybrid and Electric Commercial Vehicle
Market in North and South America
VPG Publications, Consulting, Clients www.VPGcorp.com
VPG Market Research Reports www.VPGMarketResearch.com
VPG Partner Reports www.Research-Store.com/VPG
VENTURE PLANNING GROUP 545 Eighth Avenue, Suite 401 New York, NY 10018 Phone + 1 212 564 2838 Fax + 1 212 564 8133 [email protected]
Strategic Analysis of the Medium- to Heavy-duty
Hybrid and Electric Commercial Vehicle Market in
North and South America
Electrifying Growth Opportunities Necessitate Hybrid Strategies as Market Pull Dictates Growth
May 2012
2
Contents
Objective and Scope of Research 10
Executive Summary 13
Global Commercial Vehicle Hybridization and Electrification Trends Key Mega Trends Influencing the Market Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Drivers and Restraints Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Production by Drivetrain by Region Hybrid and Electric CV Market—Impact of Modifications and Regulatory Support on Fuel Efficiency Electric Commercial Vehicle Suitability
Market Structure and Dynamics Price-reduction Strategies for Hybrid and Electric CVs Technology Roadmap and Trends Voice of Customer: Consumer Research and Analysis
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 39
Global Overview of the Electric and Hybrid MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market
Global MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Production by Region Global MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Production by Category Hybrid Penetration in Global MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Hybrid Production in MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Electric Penetration in Global MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Electric Production in MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Global Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Production by Drivetrain Global Average Component Pricing Global Component Revenue Forecast Global Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Share Analysis Global Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Value Chain Overview Global Hybrid and Electric MCV and HCV Product Line of Leading OEMs
44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 53 54 56 57 58
3
Contents (continued)
Total Americas Electric and Hybrid MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Analysis
Americas Market Overview Americas MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Factory Production Americas Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Vehicle Production by Drivetrain Configuration Americas Hybrid and Electric Powertrain System and Component Revenue Forecast
61
62
63
65
66
North American Electric and Hybrid MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Analysis Key Market Trends Overview
Industry Challenges North American Market Drivers and Restraints
Market Forecasts North American MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market North American Hybrid Penetration in MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market North American Hybrid MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Production Forecast North American Electric Penetration in MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market North American Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Production Forecast North American Hybrid and Electric Drivetrain Configuration by Vehicle Segment North American Component Pricing Trends North American Hybrid and Electric Component Revenue Forecast
Competitive Dynamics North American Hybrid and Electric CV OEM Market Share Analysis North American Hybrid and Electric CV Drivetrain Supplier Market Share Analysis
67 68 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 88 89
4
Contents (continued)
Brazilian Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Analysis Key Market Trends Overview
Brazilian Industry Challenges Brazilian Market Drivers and Restraints
Market Forecasts Brazilian MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Production Forecast Brazilian Hybrid Penetration in MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Brazilian Hybrid MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Production Forecast Brazilian Electric Penetration in MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Brazilian Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Production Forecast Brazilian Hybrid and Electric Drivetrain Configuration by Vehicle Segment Brazilian Component Pricing Trends Brazilian Hybrid and Electric Component Revenue Forecast
Competitive Dynamics Brazilian Hybrid and Electric CV OEM Market Share Analysis Brazilian Hybrid and Electric CV Drivetrain Supplier Market Share Analysis
93 94 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110
Rest of Americas Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market Analysis
Industry Challenges 111 112
Key Conclusions and Recommendations 113
Appendix—Definitions and Abbreviations 120
The Frost & Sullivan Story 127
5
List of Figures
Figure Slide
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Vehicle Segmentation, Global, 2010 11
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Electric Commercial Vehicle Suitability, North America, 2009 25
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Voice of Fleet Managers on Electric Commercial Vehicles, U.K., 2009 43
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Regulatory and Legislative Trends, North America, 2010 70
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: MCV and HCV Model List, North America, 2010 92
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Regulatory and Legislative Trends, Brazil, 2010 96
6
List of Charts
Chart Slide
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Production Volume and Penetration Forecast, Global, 2009 and 2020 14
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Component Revenue Forecast, Global, 2009 and 2020 14
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Component Revenue Forecast, Americas, 2009 and 2020 14
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Production Volume Forecast by Drivetrain, Global, 2009-2020 16
Total MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Production Volume Forecast by Category, Americas, 2009 and 2020 17
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Production Volume Forecast by Drivetrain, Americas, 2009 and 2020 18
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Component Revenue Forecast, Americas, 2009 and 2020 19
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Key Mega Trends Influencing the Market, Global, 2009-2020 21
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Market Drivers and Restraints, Global, 2011-2020 22
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Production Forecast by Drivetrain, Global, 2009-2020 23
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Impact of Modifications and Regulatory Support on Fuel Efficiency, Global, 2007-2015 24
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Electric Commercial Vehicle Suitability, Europe, 2010 25
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Vertical Integration Opportunities, Global, 2009-2020 27
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Overview of Module and Component Market Structure, Global, 2009-2020 28
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Technology Roadmap of Hybrid Commercial Vehicles, Global, 2005-2016 31
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Technology Roadmap of Electric Commercial Vehicles, Global, 2009-2017 32
Hybrid and Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: Voice of Fleet Managers, Key Desired Benefits From Powertrain Technologies, U.S., 2010 40
Hybrid and Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: Voice of U.S. Fleet Managers, Affordability of Hybrid Technologies, North America, 2009 41
Hybrid and Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: Voice of U.S. Fleet Managers, Expected Payback Period, North America, 2009 41
Hybrid and Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: Voice of Fleet Managers, Vehicle Comparison Based on Cost, U.S., 2009 42
Hybrid and Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: Voice of Fleet Managers, Expected Payback Period on Purchase of Electric CV, U.S., 2009 42
7
List of Charts (continued)
Chart Slide
Total MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Production Volume Forecast, Global, 2009-2020 45
Total MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Production Volume Forecast by Vehicle Segment, Global, 2009 and 2020 46
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Hybrid Penetration Forecast by Vehicle Category, Global, 2009-2020 47
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Hybrid Production Volume Forecast by Category, Global, 2009 and 2020 48
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Electric Penetration Forecast by Category, Global, 2009-2020 49
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Electric Production Volume Forecast by Category, Global, 2009 and 2020 50
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Production Forecast by Drivetrain and Vehicle Category, Global, 2009-2020 51
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Production Volume Forecast by Drivetrain, Global, 2009 and 2020 52
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Component Pricing Forecast, Global, 2009-2020 53
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Component Revenue Forecast, Global, 2009-2020 54
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Component Revenue Forecast by Vehicle Segment, Global, 2009-2020 55
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: OEM Market Share Analysis, Global, 2010 and 2016 56
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Hybrid CV Value Chain Partial List of Participants, Global, 2010 57
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Partial List of OEM Products for Hybrid and Electric MCVs and HCVs, Global, 2010 58
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Partial List of OEM Products for Hybrid and Electric Buses, Global, 2010 59
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Partial List of OEM Products for Hybrid and Electric Buses, Global, 2010 60
Total MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Production Volume Forecast by Category, Americas, 2009 and 2020 63
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Production Volume Forecast, Americas, 2009-2020 64
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Production Volume Forecast by Drivetrain, Americas, 2009 and 2020 65
8
List of Charts (continued)
Chart Slide
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Component Revenue Forecast, Americas, 2009 and 2020 66
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Urbanization Trends, North America, 2009-2025 69
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Electric Commercial Vehicles - Infrastructure Developments, U.S., 2008-2016 71
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Considerations for Retrofitting, North America, 2010 72
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Considerations for Retrofitting, North America, 2010 73
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Key Industry Challenges, North America, 2011-2020 74
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Market Drivers and Restraints, North America, 2011-2020 75
Total MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Production Volume Forecasts, North America, 2009-2020 77
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Hybrid Penetration Rate by Vehicle Segment, North America, 2009-2020 78
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Hybrid Production Volume Forecast by Vehicle Segment, North America, 2009-2020 79
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Electric CV Penetration Rate by Vehicle Segment, North America, 2009-2020 80
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Electric CV Production Volume Forecast by Vehicle Segment North America, 2009-2020 81
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Drivetrain Configuration by Vehicle Segment, North America, 2009-2020 82
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Average Component Pricing Trends, North America, 2009-2020 83
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Component Revenue Forecast, North America, 2009 and 2020 84
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Percent of Revenue Shares Between Module and Component Supplies to OEMs, North America, 2009 and 2016 86
9
List of Charts (continued)
Chart Slide
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Influence of Competitive Factors on Degree of Competition, North America, 2009-2020 87
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: OEM Market Share Analysis, North America, 2010 88
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Drivetrain Market Share Analysis, North America, 2010 89
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Expected Hybrid Vehicle Model Timeline, North America, 2010 90
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Expected Electric Vehicle Model Timeline, North America, 2010-2011 91
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Urbanization Trends, Latin America, 2009-2025 95
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Key Industry Challenges, Brazil, 2011-2020 97
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Market Drivers and Restraints, Brazil, 2011-2020 98
Total MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Production Volume Forecast, Brazil, 2009-2020 100
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Hybrid Penetration Rate by Vehicle Segment, Brazil, 2009-2020 101
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Hybrid Production Volume Forecast by Vehicle Segment, Brazil, 2009-2020 102
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Electric CV Penetration Rate by Vehicle Segment, Brazil, 2009-2020 103
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Electric CV Production Volume Forecast by Vehicle Segment, Brazil, 2009-2020 104
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Drivetrain Configuration by Vehicle Segment, Brazil, 2009-2020 105
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Component Pricing Trends, Brazil, 2009-2020 106
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Component Revenue Forecast, Brazil, 2009 and 2020 107
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Market Share Overview, Brazil, 2009-2020 109
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Hybrid and Electric Drivetrain Supplier Market Share Overview, Brazil, 2009-2020 110
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Key Industry Challenges, Rest of Americas, 2011-2020 112
27
Supply Chain Dynamics Vertical Integration Will Enable OEMs to Differentiate Their Products; Power Electronics (Inverters) Are a Major OEM Focal Point and Offer Product Differentiation Opportunities; Vertical Integration Encompassing Inverters Is a Real Possibility.
Prices of batteries, motors, generators, and control electronics to decrease; power electronics could increase.
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Vertical Integration Opportunities, Global, 2009-2020
OEM
Consumers Fleets and
Owner Operators
Truck / Bus Manufacturers
OEM Vertical Integration
Captive Supplier
System Suppliers
Component Suppliers
System Integrators
Module Suppliers
Software Suppliers
Aftermarket
Vertical Integration of Truck makers
aimed at component suppliers
Tier I
Tier II
Tier III
28
Module versus Component Sourcing Analysis Limited Production Volumes are Forcing OEMs to Source from Module Suppliers; Warranty Responsibility is Enabling Module Suppliers to Further Inflate Margins.
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Overview of Module and Component Market Structure, Global, 2009-2020 ••
Component/ System Supplier
••
Module Supplier
••
Truck Supplier
Module Supplier
Truck OEMs
• OEMs absorbing higher
margins of module suppliers
because of warranty risks
assumed by module
suppliers, low volume, and
initial R&D expenses
• Pricing pressure to mount
on suppliers as OEMs
connect directly with
component suppliers Component/System
Supplier
Component/System Supplier to Module Supplier to Truck Maker
• xx.x percent to xx.x
percent markup to
module supplier
• xx.x percent markup
in supplying directly
to OEM
• xx.x percent to xx.x
percent markup in
supplying to OEM
• Margins to decline
during 2012 to 2020
29
Price-reduction Strategies for Hybrid and Electric CVs Key Actions for Accelerating Growth in a Recessionary Environment
Hybrid powertrain systems suppliers focused on cost-effective technologies that can be manufactured using advanced processes as well as low-cost sourcing and manufacturing facilities can gain strategic proximity to truck makers and meet their demands for attractive price points.
Truck makers and system suppliers that are using this economic downturn to their advantage by fine tuning and optimizing their powertrain systems and their ability to rapidly introduce robust, reliable, and efficient hybrid trucks will gain rapid market share when the economy rebounds.
Truck makers that can offer attractive leasing programs encompassing both vehicles and energy storage systems can also reduce the upfront cost for potential end users and influence purchase decisions.
Using existing and mature technologies that are already prevalent in adjacent markets by customizing them to meet the unique application requirements of hybrid trucks can also enable developers and suppliers to reduce the development cost of these technologies for the electric truck market.
Module suppliers that are working with key component and sub-system suppliers to ensure long-term contracts that are supported by lean and strong supply chains will be better able to meet the price expectations of truck makers and consumers; thus, they will be better positioned to experience rapid growth in this emerging market.
Strategies aimed at incorporating lowcost outsourcing, strategic partnerships with technology leaders, and development of flexible and easily upgradeable technology platforms are expected to provide growth for participants. Companies that are rapidly developing technology expertise, creating synergetic relationships with global technology leaders in advanced power-cell technologies, and leveraging R&D and manufacturing capabilities in low-cost locations globally will enable price-reduction initiatives.
Key Strategies
for Price
Reduction
31
Hybrid and Electric MCV, HCV, Transit Bus, and Other Bus Market: Technology Roadmap of Hybrid Commercial Vehicles, Global, 2005-2016
Roadmap of Technology Trends for Hybrid Commercial Vehicles Parallel Hybrid Configuration is to Prevail Through Most of the Forecast Period; Hydraulic Hybrids Offer Niche Opportunities in Certain Vocations such as Refuse Hauling and Urban Parcel and Distribution (P&D).
2005 2010 2016
Hybrid System
Energy Storage
Series
Hydraulic hybrids
Nickel metal hydride Lithium batteries
LPG/CNG/Biodiesel engines Downsized engines
Series-parallel Hybrid
Configuration
Pumps/
Motors
Alternative
Powertrain
Solutions
Hydraulic accumulators Advanced accumulators
Ultra capacitors Ceramic ultra capacitors
Axial piston pump closed configuration
Fuel cell
Hybrid Configuration
Energy Storage
Hybrid Configuration
100 kW to 150 kW
Motor Rating 120 kW to170 kW 100 kW to120 kW
Electric Hybrids
Parallel
Diesel Engine
Parallel full hybrids from 80 to100 kW
Series full hybrids up to 120 kW
Plug-in hybrids 25 kW to 80 kW
Axial piston pumps open configuration
Permanent magnet
Asynchronous
Switch reluctance
In-wheel motors
Lead Acid
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
33
Global Short-term Technology Trends Focus is Still Heavily Centered Around Energy Storage Systems; Disparate Hybrid Technologies Keep the Global Industry Divided.
Short-term
Technology
Trends
Battery technology development is emerging as a key goal for existing and potential energy systems suppliers. Lowering lifecycle cost by lengthening the battery replacement cycle is becoming a key requirement of truck OEMs.
Scalability of hybrid powertrain systems is emerging as a need in the original equipment (OE) market as the number of platforms and vehicle models featuring hybrid powertrain systems rapidly increases.
Effective coordination between the primary power source (IC engine) and the assistant power source (an electric or hydraulic motor) enables greater fuel efficiency based on optimization of power management by using advanced control strategies and electronics.
Lengthening the distance per charge and increasing top speeds are emerging as two main goals for hybrid and electric commercial vehicle development, especially for electric vehicles.
Series hybrids are expected to lose prominence because parallel hybrids resonate better with local OEMs in China. CSR Times and Liaoning SG are focusing on research in parallel-series hybrids.
