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Storm-based WarningsStorm-based Warnings
Storm-based WarningsChanges to NWS Warnings
for the Digital Age
Storm-based WarningsChanges to NWS Warnings
for the Digital Age
NWA Broadcaster’s Workshop October 15, 2006
John FerreeOffice of Climate, Water, and Weather Services
NOAA’s National Weather Service
NWA Broadcaster’s Workshop October 15, 2006
John FerreeOffice of Climate, Water, and Weather Services
NOAA’s National Weather Service
Overview of This PresentationOverview of This Presentation
• Benefits of Storm-based Warnings
• Plans for Storm-based Warnings
• Challenges for Storm-based Warnings
• We need your help!
• Q & A
• Benefits of Storm-based Warnings
• Plans for Storm-based Warnings
• Challenges for Storm-based Warnings
• We need your help!
• Q & A
NWS MissionCongressional Organic Act of 1890
NWS MissionCongressional Organic Act of 1890
“To provide public weather forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property
and to provide weather information for the Nation’s
economic well-being”
“To provide public weather forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property
and to provide weather information for the Nation’s
economic well-being”
A Comparison of Tornado EventsA Comparison of Tornado Events
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County-Based Tornado Warnings8 Counties under warning
Almost 1 million people warned
County-Based Tornado Warnings8 Counties under warning
Almost 1 million people warned
Storm-Based Tornado Warnings70% less area covered
~600,000 fewer people warned
Storm-Based Tornado Warnings70% less area covered
~600,000 fewer people warned
• More specific• Increased clarity• Supports newdissemination technology
From County-Based Warnings to Storm-Based Warnings
From County-Based Warnings to Storm-Based Warnings
Three simultaneous tornadoes within line
of severe thunderstorms
In the current system, six full counties are warned. Storm-Based Tornado Warnings provide much improved service.
Storm-Based WarningsProvide Improved Service
Strong circulation within line of severe
thunderstorms
Tornado warning area based on storm without
regard to county boundaries
Effective Storm-Based Warnings Can Avoid Unnecessary Warning of Population CentersEffective Storm-Based Warnings Can Avoid Unnecessary Warning of Population Centers
Most of the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area is correctly omitted from this Storm-Based
tornado warning. New siren system selectively activated.
“Storm-based warnings would save the public a minimum of $100 million
dollars a year in reduction of the cost of
sheltering”- Dr. Dan Sutter
Professor of Economics
An Extreme Example ofFalsely Alarmed Area
An Extreme Example ofFalsely Alarmed Area
Graphic Disseminationof Storm-Based Warnings
Graphic Disseminationof Storm-Based Warnings
Screen capture of Brian Busby at the ABC affiliate in Kansas City, MO.
WFO Kansas City/Pleasant Hill issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning (blue) then
upgraded to a Tornado Warning (red).
Here’s the PlanHere’s the Plan
• Begin storm-based warnings (TOR, SVR) on October 1, 2007
• Official announcement likely January 18, 2007• Currently gathering feedback from partners and
customers• Broadcasters (NWA, AMS, E-mail lists)• Emergency managers (IAEM, NEMA, E-mail lists)• Private Sector Meteorologist• December 5-6 – Technical Dissemination Workshop at
TAMU
• Begin storm-based warnings (TOR, SVR) on October 1, 2007
• Official announcement likely January 18, 2007• Currently gathering feedback from partners and
customers• Broadcasters (NWA, AMS, E-mail lists)• Emergency managers (IAEM, NEMA, E-mail lists)• Private Sector Meteorologist• December 5-6 – Technical Dissemination Workshop at
TAMU
Other SB Warning ActivitiesOther SB Warning Activities
• Briefing NOAA, DOC, GAO on impacts to verification
• Training warning forecasters
• Upgrading AWIPS software
• Updating NWS Directives
• Briefing NOAA, DOC, GAO on impacts to verification
• Training warning forecasters
• Upgrading AWIPS software
• Updating NWS Directives
Challenges for SB WarningsCWA Boundaries
Challenges for SB WarningsCWA Boundaries
Challenges for SB WarningsText /Audio Dissemination
Challenges for SB WarningsText /Audio Dissemination
• Already use directional delimiters • “A Tornado Warning is in effect for
Southwestern Montgomery County”
• Add cities, towns, landmarks, highway mile markers• Maximum number?• Metro areas - problematic
• NWR Improvement Project specifies need for “geo-targeting” specific radio transmitters
• Already use directional delimiters • “A Tornado Warning is in effect for
Southwestern Montgomery County”
• Add cities, towns, landmarks, highway mile markers• Maximum number?• Metro areas - problematic
• NWR Improvement Project specifies need for “geo-targeting” specific radio transmitters
Tornado Warning BulletinTornado Warning Bulletin
Multiple Warnings in One County/Parish
Multiple Warnings in One County/Parish
• Not an issue for graphical depictions
• Text issue for radio, TV crawls
• How to reference other warnings both in warning and in statements?
• Include counties with directional delimiters?
• Summary SVSs?
• Not an issue for graphical depictions
• Text issue for radio, TV crawls
• How to reference other warnings both in warning and in statements?
• Include counties with directional delimiters?
• Summary SVSs?
Questions?Questions?
Contact Information:
[email protected] 405-325-2209
Contact Information:
[email protected] 405-325-2209
Thank you for your attention!
