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AKD Research [email protected]
+92-21-111-253-111
Weekly Review
The tribunal’s report on Model town incident, though initially ignored by the market, later on sent shockwaves within the investor community ramming the index into a heavy red zone. Followed by various parties vowing to take a stand against the accused, the bench-mark index shed 930pts (down 2.33%WoW) closing the week at 39,080pts. Furthermore, OGRA’s adamant stance towards the implementation of proposed tariff regime for gas utili-ties dragged SNGP/SSGC down by 12.7/12.3%WoW while PSO/KAPCO slid 7.26/13.94%WoW as news circulated regarding PSO suspending fuel oil imports further aggravated by the resumption of second LNG terminal (after a brief breakdown). Despite the negativity, PSMC rallied 4.4%WoW as the auto assembler announced the launch of 4 new products including the auto gear shift version of Cultus and Mega Carry. In this scenario, investors preferred to play with small cap scrips where 1) WTL (69.33mn shares), 2) KEL (57.87mn shares), 3) TRG (52.88mn shares), 4) JPGL (43.09mn shares) and 5) ANL (30.32mn shares) lead the board pushing overall volumes up by 8.74%WoW to 141.27mn. Other highlights of the week were: 1) US defense secretary Mattis meeting the high-ups of Pakistan acknowl-edging the efforts of Pakistan against war on terror, later re-iterated by the Pentagon’s statement as well, 2) PSX proposing to widen existing scrip-level circuit breakers (CBs) to maximum 15%, 3) Sindh notifying an additional subsidy of PkR9.3/kg on sugar exports, 4) (CPI) going up 3.97%YoY in November and 5) Foreign reserves jumping to US$21bn after the country received US$2.5bn through auction of Sukuk and Eurobond. Performance wise, scrips (from AKD universe) leading the bourse were: 1) PSMC (+4.40%WoW), 2) PPL (3.90%WoW), 3) NCL (1.52%WoW), 4) NML (+0.89%) and 5) POL (+0.77%WoW), while laggards included 1) KAPCO (-13.94%WoW), 2) FCCL (-9.62%WoW), 3) PSO (-7.26%WoW), 4) EFOODS (-6.62%WoW) and 5) ASTL (-6.06%). Foreigners gathered stocks worth US$1.04mn during the week, as against a heavy outflow of US$39.54mn last week.
StockSmart
AKD Equity Research / Pakistan
Pakistan Weekly Update
Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Important disclosures
Copyright©2017 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.
www.akdsecurities.net
AKD Securities
TREC Holder & Registered Broker
Pakistan Stock Exchange
REP-108
Find AKD research on Bloomberg
(AKDS<GO>), firstcall.com and Reuters Knowledge
Movements on the political front with formation of alliances against the incumbent party may further weaken investor confidence going forward. Apart from this, market will react to auto numbers due to be released next week by PAMA. On the international front, FOMC meeting is scheduled on 12/13th December where its hawkish stance might create further pressure on the sustainability of PkR/US$ parity at its current levels.
8 December 2017
Outlook
Index & Volume Chart
Source: PSX & AKD Research
Universe Gainers & Losers
40,050 39,945 39,907
38,785
39,080
38,600
38,800
39,000
39,200
39,400
39,600
39,800
40,000
40,200
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
4-Dec 5-Dec 6-Dec 7-Dec 8-Dec
(Index)(Shrs'000)
Ready Volume (LHS) KSE100 Index (RHS)
Indices KSE-100 KSE-30
This w eek 39,080 19,491
Last w eek 40,010 20,109
Change -2.33% -3.07%
Indices KMI-30 Allshare
This w eek 67,013 28,896
Last w eek 68,096 29,113
Change -1.59% -0.75%
Mkt Cap. PkRbn US$bn
This w eek 8,321 77.77
Last w eek 8,375 79.41
Change -0.65% -2.06%
Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)
This w eek 141.27
Last w eek 129.91
Change 8.74%
Top-5 Volume Leaders
Symbol Volume (mn)
WTL : 69.33
KEL : 57.87
TRG : 52.88
JPGL : 43.09
ANL : 30.32
-15.0%
-13.0%
-11.0%
-9.0%
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
PSM
C
PPL
NCL
NM
L
POL
ASTL
EFO
OD
S
PSO
FCCL
KAPC
O
33,000
35,000
37,000
39,000
41,000
43,000
45,000
47,000
49,000
51,000
53,000
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun-
17
Jul-1
7
Au
g-17
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
(Index)(share mn)
Volume (LHS) KSE-100 Index
Source: PSX & AKD Research
AKD Securities Limited
8 December 2017
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
This Week’s Daily Reports
2
Dec 07, 2017
OGDC: Project delays impacting price performance, (AKD Daily, Dec 08, 2017)
Despite its peers rallying by~ 9.8% since May and intl. oil prices rising 23.5% during the peri-od, OGDC has lost 17.1% on account of potential delays in the upcoming projects. In this regard, phase II of KPD-TAY has completed as per our sources, while work is underway at Nashpa-Mela and Soghri's timeline has been extended. The incremental flows of ~3,500bpd of oil, ~100MMCFD gas and ~300MTD of LPG, while significant in absolute nature, will only be able to off-set the declining production from various old fields, hence contributing little towards the bottom-line. However, the company is in the process of drilling more wells tak-ing leads from the result of seismic surveys with its success ratio rising to 40/57% for FY16/17. Having said this, we believe the company should be able to grow its earnings by an avg. 19.4% during FY18-20F on account of : 1) augmented production from its working inter-est in TAL block fields and 2) higher oil prices. Trading at a forward P/E of 8.3x (vs. 3yr his-torical avg. of 9.3x), our NAV based TP of PkR190/sh offers 23.7% upside from current lev-els.
Autos: Incumbents gear-up for competition, (AKD Daily, Dec 07, 2017)
Awaiting monthly sales figures for a seasonally slow month, we look at developments on the ground concerning new variants launched, order books curtailed and activity base for new entrants. PSMCs recent launch of new vehicle offerings, the Mega Carry in the CBU pickup category and the auto gear shift Cultus AGS extend the OEMs drive to enhance quali-ty. However, we believe the impact of these variants is expected to be minor, as the premi-um price point for both hinders sales growth, in our view. For INDU, the company expects robust demand from upcoming pre-election premium SUV buying spree, where the Fortun-er and Revo variants are expected to deliver strong growth, buoyed by plans to introduce the 3.0L diesel variant of the Fortuner. As for new entrants, we present an updated snap-shot of announces investment plans, while sector-wise FDI data until October'17 shows a minor increase for net FDI under Transport Equipment category where 4MFY18 cumulative net FDI of US$15.5mn is higher by 5.4%YoY.
OMCs: Nov'17 sales suffer from FO generation halt, (AKD Daily, Dec 06, 2017)
Seasonal weakness aggravated by the abrupt closure of FO fired plants for the majority of the month weighed down Nov'17 POL product sales, amounting to 1.91mn tonnes (-22%MoM/-7%YoY). FO sales fell -55%MoM/-29%YoY, while supply chain constraints and ensuing refinery disruptions kept MOGAS/HSD volumes on a soft note (-9%/+2%MoM and +6%/-2%YoY). Total POL sales volumes for major OMCs moved -29%/-22%/-22%MoM for PSO/APL/HASCOL and -28%/-8%/+29%YoY, highlighting the tenuous situation of POL storage and transport infrastructure due to unplanned FO plant closures. Market shares for major OMCs remained sticky, with PSO/APL/HASCOL commanding 52%/8%/11% of total product market share for Nov'17 while cumulative 11MCY17 market shares are at 55%/8%/10% vs. 56%/7%/7% for 11MCY16. Highlighting PSO's attractive multiples (FY18E P/E of 4.9x) and earnings cushion from RLNG handling income (2.5% of DES price) as key triggers. At a target price of PkR413/sh the potential upside of 34% is alluring.
Pakistan Cement_Nov'17 Dispatches Review, (AKD Daily, Dec 05, 2017)
Total cement dispatches during the month rose 4.8%YoY to 3.93mn tons in Nov'17, while declining on a monthly basis (down 6.9%), as reflected in provisional data released by APCMA. Local demand growth tapered off to 9.4%YoY/-5.3%MoM against an avg. 4MFY18 dispatches growth of 25.6%, on account of construction activities losing pace as winter ap-proaches. Exports, on the other hand, remained under significant pressure with figures showing a significant 26.4%YoY /20.5%MoM decline possibly due to trade barriers imposed by Afghanistan. Cumulatively, 5MFY18 dispatches are up 13.8%YoY over the previous year to 18.50mn tons primarily driven by strong domestic consumption, (+19.8%YoY), while ex-port growth decelerated (down 18.1%YoY). Post the seasonal blip, we expect domestic de-mand to pick up pace with GoP looking for swift completion of public projects during the election year, evident in 20%YoY higher PSDP disbursement in 5MFY18. With pricing con-cerns coming to the fore alongwith fundamental pressures (rising coal prices), the cement
Source: PSX & AKD Research
Dec 06, 2017
Dec 08, 2017
Dec 05, 2017
Dec 04, 2017
38,200
38,400
38,600
38,800
39,000
39,200
39,400
9:1
4
9:4
3
10:1
1
10:4
0
11:0
8
11:3
7
12:0
5
12:3
3
13:0
1
13:2
9
13:5
7
14:2
6
14:5
4
15:2
2
15:5
1
16:1
9
38,750
38,950
39,150
39,350
39,550
39,750
39,950
9:3
0
9:5
3
10:1
7
10:4
1
11:0
5
11:2
8
11:5
2
12:1
6
12:3
9
13:0
3
13:2
6
13:5
0
14:1
3
14:3
7
15:0
1
15:2
5
39,800
39,850
39,900
39,950
40,000
40,050
40,100
9:3
0
9:5
5
10:2
0
10:4
4
11:0
9
11:3
4
11:5
9
12:2
3
12:4
8
13:1
3
13:3
8
14:0
2
14:2
7
14:5
2
15:1
7
39,900
39,920
39,940
39,960
39,980
40,000
40,020
40,040
40,060
40,080
40,100
9:3
0
9:5
4
10:1
9
10:4
4
11:0
9
11:3
4
11:5
8
12:2
3
12:4
8
13:1
3
13:3
8
14:0
2
14:2
7
14:5
2
15:1
7
39,900
39,950
40,000
40,050
40,100
40,150
9:3
0
9:5
5
10:1
9
10:4
4
11:0
9
11:3
4
11:5
8
12:2
3
12:4
8
13:1
3
13:3
7
14:0
2
14:2
7
14:5
2
15:1
6
AKD Securities Limited
8 December 2017
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
This Week’s Daily Reports
3
sector has undergone steep correction (down 44% since May'17). While pricing risk remains as additional capacity streams online, we base our investment case on: 1) strong domestic demand growth and 2) discounted valuations. In this backdrop, we maintain our preference for well diversified, energy efficient companies like LUCK (TP: PkR898/sh), MLCF (TP: PkR108/sh), DGKC (TP: PkR194/sh) and PIOC (TP: PkR109/sh) in our Cement Universe.
Pakistan Market_Nov'17 Review & Outlook, (AKD Daily, Dec 04, 2017)
The month of Nov'17 witnessed an extension of the prevailing bearish momentum at the bourse with the index losing 1.1%MoM. Elevation in political noise - a 21 day long sit-in the federal capital culminating in the resignation of the Law Minister, alongwith anticipated foreign selling (on MSCI portfolio rebalancing) continued to weaken sentiments. To this end, foreigners adjusted portfolios to the same, cumulatively selling US$51.8mn worth of equi-ties, with bulk selling coming in towards the end of the month (US$19.8mn worth equities sold on Nov 30'17).Local investors remained risk averse where the lack of involvement was clearly reflective in lower trading volumes/value (down 23%/18%MoM) in Nov’17. Apart from Oil&Gas (+3.3%MoM mimicking oil price trend) and Automoblies (+2.4%MoM on an-ticipated model launches), performance at the mainboard remained rather unexciting. Go-ing into Dec'17, we expect the market should derive strength from: 1) positive reiteration on the macro front despite political uncertainty (successful Eurobond/Sukuk issue), and 2) bullish oil price outlook benefitting heavyweight Oil&Gas sector. In addition to, we also push for exposure in sectors like Banks (MCB, UBL, BAFL), Autos (INDU), Cements that are thematically well placed.
AKD Securities Limited
8 December 2017
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
4
Commodities
International Major Currencies
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Major World Indices’ Performance
Source: Bloomberg
TRJ-CRB Index
Source: Bloomberg
PkR/US$ Trend
Source: Bloomberg
Regional Valuations (2017)
Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe
165
168
171
174
177
180
183
186
189
192
195
198
Dec-
16
Jan-1
7
Feb
-17
Mar-
17
Apr-
17
May-
17
Jun-1
7
Jul-17
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct-17
Nov-
17
Dec-
17
104.0
104.5
105.0
105.5
106.0
106.5
107.0
Dec-
16
Jan-1
7
Feb
-17
Mar-
17
Apr-
17
May-
17
Jun-1
7
Jul-17
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct-17
Nov-
17
Dec-
17
SPOT Units 8-Dec-17 30-Nov-17 WoW CYTD
TRJ-CRB Points 184.471 189.1714 -2.48% -4.18%
Nymex (WTI) US$/bbl. 57.59 57.4 0.33% 7.20%
ICE Brent US$/bbl. 63.32 62.78 0.86% 14.28%
N. Gas Henry Hub US$/Mmbtu 2.8034 2.9417 -4.70% -23.86%
Cotton USd/Pound 83.2 83.7 -0.60% 4.79%
Gold US$/Tr.Oz 1247.18 1274.94 -2.18% 8.24%
Sliver US$/Tr.Oz 15.8145 16.436 -3.78% -0.65%
Copper US$/MT 6530 6735 -3.04% 18.23%
Platinum US$/Oz 893.03 942.65 -5.26% -1.16%
Coal US$/MT 94.75 94.75 0.00% 13.13%
SPOT 8-Dec-17 30-Nov-17 Chg +/- WoW CYTD
Dollar Index 93.984 93.047 0.937 1.01% -8.47%
USD/PkR 106.990 105.500 1.490 1.41% 2.07%
USD/JPY 113.490 112.540 0.950 0.84% -2.62%
EUR/USD 1.174 1.190 -0.016 -1.35% 11.94%
GBP/USD 1.343 1.353 -0.010 -0.73% 9.50%
AUD/USD 0.751 0.757 -0.005 -0.71% 4.06%
NZD/USD 0.684 0.683 0.001 0.12% -1.79%
CHF/USD 0.997 0.984 0.013 1.34% -2.56%
CAD/USD 1.285 1.290 -0.005 -0.39% -4.85%
USD/KRW 1,094 1,088 5.450 0.50% -9.46%
CNY/USD 6.621 6.609 0.012 0.18% -4.82%
Country Bloomberg Code 8-Dec-17 30-Nov-17 WoW CYTD
Pakistan KSE100 Index 39,080 40,010 -2.33% -18.3%
Srilanka CSEALL Index 6,375 6,412 -0.57% 2.4%
Thailand SET Index 1,707 1,697 0.54% 10.6%
Indonesia JCI Index 6,031 5,952 1.32% 13.9%
Malaysia FBMKLCI Index 1,721 1,718 0.20% 4.8%
Philippines PCOMP Index 8,305 8,254 0.61% 21.4%
Vietnam VNINDEX Index 940 950 -1.03% 41.4%
Hong Kong HSI Index 28,640 29,177 -1.84% 30.2%
Singapore FSSTI Index 3,425 3,434 -0.26% 18.9%
Brazil IBX Index 30,265 29,729 1.80% 22.1%
Russia RTSSTD Index 13,709 13,621 0.64% -7.0%
India SENSEX Index 33,250 33,149 0.30% 24.9%
S&P SPX Index 2,637 2,648 -0.40% 17.8%
DJIA INDU Index 24,211 24,272 -0.25% 22.5%
UK UKX Index 7,360 7,327 0.46% 3.0%
Germany DAX Index 13,194 13,024 1.30% 14.9%
Qatar DSM Index 7,774 7,714 0.77% -25.5%
Abu Dhabi ADSMI Index 4,277 4,283 -0.14% -5.9%
Dubai DFMGI Index 3,393 3,421 -0.80% -3.9%
Kuwait KWSEIDX Index 6,187 6,197 -0.15% 7.6%
Oman MSM30 Index 5,066 5,110 -0.85% -12.4%
Saudi Arabia SASEIDX Index 7,086 7,004 1.16% -1.7%
MSCI EM MXEF Index 1,101 1,121 -1.81% 27.6%
MSCI FM MXFM Index 623 619 0.68% 24.8%
EPS Growth PE(x)
Pakistan 18% 7.51
Indonesia 11% 15.33
Malaysia 12% 15.70
Philippines 6% 14.90
Vitenam 12% 18.09
India 28% 16.98
China 13% 12.85
% ROE Divd Yld
Pakistan 15.7% 7.10
Indonesia 15.02 2.34
Malaysia 10.29 3.54
Philippines 12.16 1.56
Vitenam 15.95 1.98
India 15.41 1.58
China 11.50 2.21
5
AKD Securities Limited
8 December 2017
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Chart Bank
FIPI Flows for the week
Advance to Decline Ratio
AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index
LIPI Flows for the week
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential
KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM
-20%-15%-10%
-5%0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%
Dec
-16
Jan-
17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-17
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-17
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-17
Dec
-17
KSE100 MSCI EM
MSCI FM
(1,063)
524
2,015
1,303
(1,744) (1,970)
(1,470)
(970)
(470)
30
530
1,030
1,530
2,030
4-Dec-17 5-Dec-17 6-Dec-17 7-Dec-17 8-Dec-17
(US$'000)
-2.30
-1.80
-1.30
-0.80
-0.30
0.20
0.70
No
v-16
Dec
-16
Jan-
17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-17
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-17
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-17
No
v-17
(%)
Ind., 5.07
Co., 10.28
Bank/DFI, 4.12
NBFC, 0.30
M.Funds, 6.88 Ins, 6.84
Others, 4.53
Prop. Trading , 3.96
-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
Dec-1
6
Dec-1
6
Jan-1
7
Feb
-17
Feb
-17
Ma
r-1
7
Apr-
17
Apr-
17
Ma
y-17
Ma
y-17
Jun-1
7
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
7
Aug-1
7
Aug-1
7
Sep-1
7
Oct
-17
Oct
-17
Nov-1
7
Dec-1
7
-22%
-17%
-12%
-7%
-2%
3%
8%
13%
18%
23%
De
c-1
6
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
KSE-All Share Index AKD Universe
6
AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Market PER Chart 2017
Source: AKD Research
Market P/BVS Chart 2017
Source: AKD Research
8 December 2017
Jul-
07
Feb
-08
Oct
-08
Jun-
09
Feb
-10
Oct
-10
May
-11
Jan-
12
Sep
-12
May
-13
Jan-
14
Sep
-14
Apr
-15
Dec
-15
Aug
-16
Apr
-17
Dec
-17
14.0
10.5
7.0
3.5
(x)
Jul-0
7
Feb-
08
Oct
-08
Jun-
09
Feb-
10
Oct
-10
May
-11
Jan-
12
Sep-
12
May
-13
Jan-
14
Sep-
14
Apr-
15
Dec-
15
Aug-
16
Apr-
17
Dec-
17
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
(x)
7
AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
AKD Universe Active Coverage Cluster’s Valuations
8 December 2017
Source: AKD Research UR Under Review
Stock Symbol Price TP Stance EPS(PkR) PE(x) PB(x) DY(%)
(PkR) (PkR) 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F
Automobile and Parts
Indus Motors INDU 1,699.20 2,069.97 Buy 165.41 159.58 185.44 10.27 10.65 9.16 4.28 3.81 3.26 6.77 6.47 6.47
Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 501.55 800.66 Buy 44.98 57.33 58.31 11.15 8.75 8.60 1.40 1.23 1.11 1.79 2.19 2.39
Cements
DG Khan Cement DGKC 131.77 194.00 Buy 18.20 16.40 17.85 7.24 8.04 7.38 0.77 0.73 0.69 5.69 6.07 5.31
Lucky Cement LUCK 493.18 898.00 Buy 42.34 34.15 37.79 11.65 14.44 13.05 2.00 1.91 1.72 2.43 2.03 2.43
Maple Leaf Cement Factory MLCF 69.65 107.00 Buy 7.92 6.98 7.46 8.79 9.97 9.33 1.77 1.34 1.11 4.71 8.62 8.62
Fauji Cement Company Ltd. FCCL 24.44 39.00 Buy 1.89 2.59 3.22 12.90 9.44 7.59 1.71 1.63 1.53 3.68 8.18 10.23
Pioneer Cement Limited PIOC 57.97 109.00 Buy 12.84 9.04 10.54 4.51 6.42 5.50 1.08 1.01 0.93 9.49 8.63 10.35
Cherat Cement Co Limited CHCC 92.04 140.00 Buy 11.08 10.71 12.79 8.31 8.59 7.20 1.55 1.43 1.27 2.91 4.35 5.43
Gharibwal Cement Ltd GWLC 23.31 58.00 Buy 5.71 4.07 4.49 4.09 5.73 5.20 0.82 0.78 0.75 12.87 13.94 11.80
Engineering
Amreli Steels Ltd. ASTL 88.31 128.00 Buy 3.62 5.56 14.70 24.42 15.88 6.01 2.35 2.04 1.58 2.26 2.26 6.79
Fertilizers
Engro Corporation ENGRO 260.19 355.00 Buy 19.18 20.16 26.27 13.56 12.91 9.91 1.66 1.65 1.60 8.84 7.69 8.46
Engro Fertilizers Limited EFERT 62.49 72.82 Accumulate 7.20 7.30 7.40 8.70 8.60 8.40 1.90 1.80 1.80 8.65 9.29 10.06
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 34.34 62.60 Buy 2.27 1.70 2.18 15.14 20.19 15.74 2.38 2.30 2.18 5.77 4.33 5.55
Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 76.56 96.86 Buy 6.97 7.66 8.34 10.98 10.00 9.18 3.35 3.24 3.13 8.19 9.00 9.80
Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 28.83 45.11 Buy 5.06 5.44 6.00 5.70 5.30 4.81 1.11 1.03 0.95 11.41 13.20 14.57
Food Producers
Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 75.83 84.20 Accumulate 0.75 1.19 1.22 101.36 63.51 62.00 3.14 2.97 2.78 - - -
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 155.60 190.00 Buy 14.83 18.46 18.51 10.49 8.43 8.41 1.29 1.16 1.06 3.86 3.53 3.53
Pak Oilfields POL 605.00 445.00 Sell 40.92 61.32 69.91 14.79 9.87 8.65 4.54 4.14 3.77 6.61 8.60 9.83
Pakistan Petroleum PPL 196.46 239.00 Buy 18.10 21.40 25.93 10.86 9.18 7.58 1.79 1.59 1.42 4.58 4.58 5.34
Hascol Petroleum HASCOL 253.46 325.95 Buy 13.02 18.43 23.50 19.47 13.76 10.79 4.94 4.25 3.65 3.35 4.73 6.51
Attock Petroleum APL 544.86 745.14 Buy 65.27 75.54 91.87 8.35 7.21 5.93 2.93 2.79 2.63 7.80 12.07 14.68
Pakistan State Oil PSO 287.05 413.28 Buy 55.90 64.33 78.14 5.13 4.46 3.67 0.91 0.82 0.72 7.26 9.41 10.45
Power
Hub Power Co. HUBC 94.07 142.70 Buy 11.20 12.42 12.37 8.40 7.57 7.60 3.55 3.48 3.60 7.97 11.70 11.43
K-Electric Co. KEL 6.18 UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR
Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO 51.01 85.00 Buy 10.84 11.40 11.39 4.71 4.47 4.48 1.40 1.34 1.28 17.74 19.11 19.11
Fixed Line Telecommunication
Pakistan Telecommunication PTC 12.31 UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR
Personal Goods
Nishat Mills NML 142.48 163.10 Buy 12.12 15.48 18.09 11.75 9.20 7.88 0.56 0.54 0.52 3.51 4.91 5.79
Nishat Chunian Ltd. NCL 46.15 69.26 Buy 6.75 9.55 10.66 6.84 4.83 4.33 0.92 0.81 0.72 5.96 8.13 9.21
Banks
Allied Bank Limited ABL 78.98 101.44 Buy 11.95 13.01 14.62 6.61 6.07 5.40 0.84 0.79 0.75 9.50 10.13 11.40
Bank AlFalah BAFL 38.65 48.43 Buy 5.33 5.44 5.98 7.25 7.10 6.47 0.94 0.82 0.73 - 2.57 3.85
Habib Bank Limited HBL 155.92 253.08 Buy 22.13 24.11 26.29 7.05 6.47 5.93 1.08 1.00 0.92 8.98 8.98 8.98
MCB Bank Limited MCB 199.23 232.52 Accumulate 19.91 23.56 25.05 10.01 8.46 7.95 1.48 1.40 1.35 8.03 9.03 9.54
National Bank of Pakistan NBP 44.03 73.67 Buy 8.59 10.12 12.74 5.12 4.35 3.46 0.49 0.47 0.44 15.90 17.03 19.31
United Bank Ltd UBL 168.18 238.61 Buy 20.52 22.40 25.00 8.20 7.51 6.73 1.19 1.13 1.06 7.73 7.73 7.73
8
AKD Securities Limited
8 December 2017
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
AKD Universe Coverage Cluster’s Performance
Source: PSX & AKD Research
Stoc ks Symbol Pric e 1 Ye a r 1 Ye a r
8 - De c - 17 1M 3 M 6 M 12 M CYTD High Low
KSE- 10 0 Inde x 3 9 ,0 8 0 .0 0 - 5 .3 - 5 .6 - 2 1.8 - 12 .7 - 18 .3 52,876.5 38,784.7
Automobile a nd Pa rts
Indus Motors INDU 1699.20 - 4.4 - 1.5 - 14.6 7.8 5.2 2044.30 1574.18
Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 501.55 - 10.7 10.2 - 42.9 - 4.4 - 18.2 903.91 436.74
Ce me nts
DG Khan Cement DGKC 131.77 - 7.7 - 15.4 - 43.0 - 36.8 - 40.6 245.37 130.87
Lucky Cement LUCK 493.18 - 7.3 - 17.3 - 42.8 - 39.5 - 43.1 994.65 484.20
Maple Leaf Cement Factory MLCF 69.65 - 0.5 - 21.0 - 39.5 - 41.5 - 45.4 137.64 66.31
Fauji Cement Company Ltd. FCCL 24.44 - 15.1 - 29.8 - 46.0 - 41.5 - 45.8 48.19 24.44
Pioneer Cement Limited PIOC 57.97 - 6.6 - 38.8 - 60.6 - 56.1 - 59.2 160.02 57.97
Cherat Cement Limited CHCC 92.04 - 9.7 - 31.6 - 49.7 - 44.0 - 47.1 212.00 90.22
Gharibwal Cement Limited GWLC 23.31 0.5 - 36.2 - 57.0 - 52.9 - 53.3 67.48 22.95
Engine e ring
Amreli Steel Ltd ASTL 88.31 - 3.7 - 12.5 - 33.6 28.0 32.6 137.97 65.52
Fe rtilize rs
Dawood Hercules DAWH 112.55 - 7.2 - 2.7 - 21.5 - 22.0 - 22.0 161.23 108.27
Engro Fertilizers Ltd. EFERT 62.49 - 6.9 13.1 8.4 15.9 - 8.1 73.28 51.90
Engro Chemical ENGRO 260.19 - 9.0 - 10.5 - 28.0 - 18.1 - 17.7 399.16 253.53
Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 28.83 - 7.6 0.5 - 12.0 - 17.1 - 21.8 41.29 27.26
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 34.34 2.2 2.4 - 26.0 - 34.9 - 32.9 58.41 32.17
Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 76.56 - 7.7 6.9 - 18.1 - 27.4 - 26.6 118.96 70.07
Food Produc e rs
Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 75.83 - 13.5 - 16.4 - 44.5 - 52.8 - 60.5 207.82 75.83
Oil & Ga s
Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 155.60 - 2.2 5.2 - 3.7 1.7 - 5.9 188.71 133.69
Pak Oilfields POL 605.00 - 5.5 26.2 18.6 30.6 13.2 640.28 429.75
Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. PPL 196.46 - 0.2 13.7 14.3 20.1 4.4 201.94 143.73
Pakistan State Oil PSO 287.05 - 18.8 - 33.9 - 35.5 - 29.1 - 33.9 486.05 287.05
Attock Petroleum Ltd. APL 544.86 - 9.5 - 14.6 - 21.0 - 19.4 - 20.4 749.39 544.86
Hascol Petroleum HASCOL 253.46 - 9.9 - 13.8 - 32.8 - 23.8 - 24.9 389.41 251.80
Powe r
Hub Power Co. HUBC 94.07 - 11.2 - 17.8 - 24.7 - 17.1 - 23.8 145.43 91.96
K- Electric Limited KEL 6.18 11.8 0.3 - 17.4 - 33.8 - 34.0 10.67 5.34
Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO 51.01 - 23.3 - 30.5 - 31.9 - 32.8 - 35.3 85.02 51.01
Fixe d Line Te le c ommunic a tion
Pakistan Telecommunication PTC 12.31 - 5.3 - 10.8 - 21.7 - 30.1 - 28.3 19.45 12.31
Pe rsona l Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd. NCL 46.15 - 9.1 - 8.8 - 19.8 - 19.2 - 26.1 72.67 44.03
Nishat Mills NML 142.48 - 1.0 3.3 - 14.4 - 2.1 - 6.4 185.63 130.03
Ba nks
Allied Bank Limited ABL 78.98 - 2.0 - 7.1 - 17.0 - 24.8 - 33.7 122.00 77.50
Bank AlFalah BAFL 38.65 - 3.4 - 6.8 - 9.8 11.9 1.8 47.24 34.32
Habib Bank Limited HBL 155.92 - 6.0 - 2.9 - 40.4 - 33.8 - 42.9 308.57 152.41
MCB Bank Limited MCB 199.23 - 5.9 1.7 - 8.6 - 13.0 - 16.2 262.10 190.43
National Bank of Pakistan NBP 44.03 - 1.7 - 18.4 - 34.5 - 39.5 - 41.2 82.66 43.03
United Bank Ltd UBL 168.18 - 6.8 - 12.3 - 29.1 - 25.2 - 29.6 275.38 163.40
Absolute Pe rforma nc e (%)
9
AKD Securities Limited
8 December 2017
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Economic Snapshot
Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research
End Month Data Units Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17
T-bill
3M % 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 n.a
6M % 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 n.a
12M % 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.91 n.a
PIB 10Y % 8.21 8.17 8.24 8.26 8.21 8.18 8.2 8.23 8.27 n.a
KIBOR 6M % 5.87 5.87 5.88 5.91 5.90 5.90 5.89 5.90 5.91 5.91
Discount rate % 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25
Policy rate % 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75
Inflation
Headline inflation % 3.66 4.22 4.94 4.78 5.00 3.9 2.9 3.4 3.9 3.8
Core inflation % 5.40 5.30 5.30 5.50 5.50 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3
Food inflation % 2.60 3.70 5.00 4.40 4.90 2.4 (0.10) 1.3 2.4 2.2
External Indicators
Export (PBS) US$ (mn) 1,780 1,638 1,801 1,805 1,627 1,912 1,631 1,866 1,675 1,888
Import (PBS) US$ (mn) 4,724 4,419 5,009 4,998 5,092 4,534 4,835 4,952 4,473 4,929
Trade Deficit (PBS) US$ (mn) (2,944) (2,781) (3,208) (3,193) (3,465) (2,622) (3,204) (3,086) (2,798) -3,041
Export (SBP) 1,783 1,769 2,061 1,766 1,954 1,865 1,828 2,104 2,194 2,380
Import (SBP) 4,196 4,017 4,305 4,108 4,633 5,054 4,720 4,262 4,712 5,258
Trade Deficit (SBP) (2,413) (2,248) (2,244) (2,342) (2,679) (3,189) (2,892) (2,158) (2,518) (2,878)
Home Remittances US$ (mn) 1,488 1,417 1,694 1,539 1,867 1,840 1,542 1,955
1,294 1,654
Current Account US$ (mn) (1,202) (822) (562) (1,337) (1,651) (1,431) (2,051) (550) (1,097) (1,315)
Banking Sector
Deposits PkR (bn) 10,704 10,730 11,170 11,214 10,993 11,981 11,702 11,651 11,980 11,777
Advances PkR (bn) 5,468 5,477 5,697 5,777 5,936 6,176 6,028 6,035 6,137 6,151
Investments PkR (bn) 7,374 7,467 7,670 7,794 7,849 8,166 7,989 8,145 8,338 8,342
W. A. lending rate % 8.01 7.99 7.89 7.85 7.87 7.86 7.88 7.91 7.83 7.82
W. A. deposit rate % 3.05 3.02 2.99 2.98 2.89 2.84 2.91 2.93 2.93 2.91
Spread rate % 4.96 4.97 4.90 4.87 4.98 5.02 4.97 4.98 4.90 4.90
Public Finance
Tax collection PkR (mn) 223,856 225,486 346,999 249,958 330,957 511,449 n.a n.a n.a n.a
Direct taxes PkR (mn) 81,741 80,019 147,242 78,407 117,084 247,210 n.a n.a n.a n.a
Indirect Taxes PkR (mn) 142,115 145,467 199,757 171,551 213,873 264,239 n.a n.a n.a n.a
Currency
Fx Reserves US$ (mn) 22,242 22,072 21,572 21,019 21,190 21,402 20,223 20,401 19,775 19,583.70
USDPkR - Interbank PkR/USD 104.84 104.84 104.82 104.79 104.84 104.86 105.48 105.38 105.40 105.41
10
AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
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AKD Research Team
Analyst Tel no. E-mail Coverage
Umer Pervez +92 111 253 111 (693) [email protected] Executive Director Research & Business Development
Zoya Ahmed +92 111 253 111 (603) [email protected] Banks, Telecoms & Consumers
Ali Asghar Poonawala +92 111 253 111 (646) [email protected] OMCs & Automobiles
Waqas Imdad Ali +92 111 253 111 (634) [email protected] Cements & Fertilizer
M.Daniyal Kanani +92 111 253 111 (602) [email protected] Oil & Gas & Power
Umer Farooq +92 111 253 111 (637) [email protected] Textiles & Steel
Bilal Ahsan Elahi +92 111 253 111 (685) [email protected] Automobiles
Qasim Anwar +92 111 253 111 (680) [email protected] Technical Analysis
Nasir Khan +92 111 253 111 (639) [email protected] Research Production
8 December 2017