stock valuation- galerie leoni - 00000000122.docx

8/19/2019 stock valuation- galerie leoni - 00000000122.docx

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TUGAS ANALISIS INVESTASI DAN

PORTOFOLIO

“PENILAIAN SAHAM PT MULTIPOLAR

TBK. (MLPL)”

Disusun Ole!

G"le#ie Le$ni %&&&&&&&&'

Univesitas Pelita Harapan

2015


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Ekonomi Global

Krisis Ekonomi

K#isis e$n$*i +e#,"-i -i un"ni /e/e#"0" +"un +e#"i# ini. un"ni

*e#u0""n ne1"#" 0e#+"*" 2"n1 1"1"l *e*/"2"# u+"n1n2" e0"-" D"n"

M$ne+e# In+e#n"si$n"l (IMF) se/es"# '.3 *illi"# eu#$ "+"u sei+"# '.4 *illi"# -$ll"#

AS. Hu+"n1 +e#se/u+ ,"+u su-" ,"+u +e*0$ 0"-" Sel"s" (+"n11"l 5& 6uni &'3).

Te#,"-in2" #isis un"ni ini -ise/"/"n "#en" u+"n1 7 0iu+"n1 un"ni 2"n1

-i*ul"i 0"-" +"un '894: -i*"n" s""+ i+u un"ni *e*"sui /"/" 0e*e#in+""n

2"n1 /"#u sein11" *e*/u+u"n /"n+u"n -"n" 2"n1 ;uu0 /"n2" un+u 0e*/"n1un"n inis" un"ni. D"#i /e/e#"0" "l ini: -"0"+ -ili"+ /"?" se/"1i"n /es"# 0en2e/"/

#isis un"ni -ise/"/"n $le un"ni sen-i#i. IMF se*0"+ *en"?"#"n u+"n1

/"#u se/es"# 4. *illi"# eu#$ se+el" un"ni 1"1"l *e*/"n2"# u+"n1n2". Te+"0i @&

0e#sen -"#i #"2"+ un"ni *e*ili un+u +i-" *ene#i*" u+"n1 /"#u 2"n1

/e#s2"#"+ i+u.

K#isis 2"n1 +e#,"-i -i un"ni +e#se/u+ +i-" /e#-"*0" 0"-" In-$nesi"

se;"#" l"n1sun1: "#en" un"ni +i-" *e*0un2"i e#,"s"*" 2"n1 *eli/"+"n

*"+" u"n1 -en1"n In-$nesi": n"*un +e+"0 *e*/e#i -"*0" /e#u0"


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?"+u -"0"+ *ele*""n nil"i *"+" u"n1 Eu#$ sein11" in>es+$# 2"n1 *e*e1"n1

Eu#$ /e#0in-" *e*e1"n1 US -$ll"#: "l ini *en1"i/"+"n nil"i *"+" u"n1 US

*en1u"+ -"n "i#n2" *ele*""n *"+" u"n1 In-$nesi". 6i" 0ele*""n #u0i"

+e#us /e#l"n,u+: /e/"n se+$# in-us+#i ""n se*"in /e#"+ "#en" se/"1i"n /es"#

in0u+ 0#$-usi /e#"s"l -"#i i*0$#. D"*0" sel"n,u+n2" "-"l" *ele*"n2" 0"s"#

eu"n1"n -i In-$nesi" (IHSG) "#en" e+"u+"n ""n e+i-"*"*0u"n un"ni

un+u *e*/"2"#.

Kebijakan Fed Menaikan Suku un!a

K$n-isi e$n$*i In-$nesi" s"n1"+ +e#0en1"#u $le e$n$*i 1l$/"l. P"-"

s""+ ini: B"n In-$nesi" *"si *eli"+ "-" e+i-"0"s+i"n -"#i #en;"n" en"i"nsuu /un1" B"n Sen+#"l A*e#i" Se#i"+. Di0e#i#""n en"i"n suu /un1" ini

""n -i*ul"i 0"-" /ul"n Se0+e*/e# se;"#" /e#+""0 -"n -i0e#i#""n /"?" ""n

+e#,"-in2" 0e#"n1 *"+" u"n1 "#en" 0#$1#"* 0enin1"+"n suu /un1" -i A*e#i"

Se#i"+ 2"n1 /e#,"l"n se;"#" /e#"l" ""n *e*/e#i"n -"*0" 0"-" *"+" u"n1

l"in. Di*"n" se+i"0 ne1"#" ""n *en,"1" 0$sisi $*0e+i+i< *"+" u"n1n2" -"n

*e*/u"+ B"n In-$nesi" *en1"*/il e/i,""n un+u *en,"1" s+"/ili+"s e$n$*i

-$*es+i. Te#u+"*" un+u *en""n l",u in


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0en1u"+"n -$ll"# AS -"n ,u1" se-"n1 *enun11u e0"s+i"n 2"n1 +e#"i+ -en1"n

suu /un1" Te Fe-.

Be#-"s"#"n e$n$*i 1l$/"l 2"i+u +e#,"-in2" #isis -i un"ni /e#-"*0"

,u1" /"1i PT Mul+i0$l"# T/. (MLPL) /"i s""+ ini *"u0un -i*"s" 2"n1 ""n

-"+"n1. Di*"n" #isis ini -"0"+ *e*i;u 0enin1"+"n /e/"n -i se+$# in-us+#i

"#en" +e#-"0"+ /e/e#"0" /""n /"u 2"n1 *e#u0""n i*0$# -"#i lu"# ne1e#i.

H"#1" s""* *un1in ""n +u#un "#en" "-"n2" -"*0" ne1"+i< 2"n1 -i/e#i"n

/"1i 0"s"# eu"n1"n (IHSG). L"lu: nil"i +u"# *"+" u"n1 In-$nesi" 2"n1 #en-"

+e#"-"0 A*e#i" Se#i"+ -"n *en11"n11u 0si$l$1i -"#i 0"#" in>es+$# sein11"

*en,"-i +"u+ un+u /e#in>es+"si -i s""* "0"0un. P"s"# -"#i 0e#us"""n PT

Mul+i0$l"# (MLPL) +e#se/u+ ,u1" ""n *enu#un.Be#-"s"#"n /e#i+" Te Fe-: en"i"n suu /un1" *e*/u"+ "#1" s""* PT

Mul+i0$l"# T/. (MLPL) +u#un. Pen,el"s"n *en1"0" en"i"n suu /un1" -"0"+

*en-$#$n1 "#1" s""* +u#un "-"l" se/"1"i /e#iu+. Pe#+"*": suu /un1" ""n

*en1u/" 0e+" "sil in>es+"si. P"-" s""+ suu /un1" 0in,"*"n 3 0e#sen se+"un:

*"" in>es+$# s""* ""n 0u"s -en1"n "sil in>es+"si s""* @ 0e#sen -"n 4

0e#sen. Ke+i" suu /un1" n"i l"1i: *"" in>es+$# s""* *enin1in"n "sil

2"n1 le/i +in11i se/"n-in1 -en1"n 2"n1 si"0 *e#e" +"n11un1. P"-" s""+

e,"-i"n se0e#+i ini in>es+$# *un1in ,u1" ""n *e*ili un+u *en,u"l -"n

*en2i*0"n -"n"n2" -i /"n. Den1"n "sil 2"n1 s"*": in>es+$# ""n *en1"-"0i

#esi$ 2"n1 s"*". Ke-u": en"i"n suu /un1" ""n *e*$+$n1 l"/" 0e#us"""n.

H"l ini +e#,"-i -en1"n -u" ;"#" 2"i+u en"i"n suu /un1" ""n *enin1"+"n

/e/"n /"1i e*i+en: sein11" l"/"n2" /is" +e#0"n1"s. Sel"in i+u: e+i" suu

/un1" +in11i /i"2" 0#$-usi ""n *enin1"+ -"n "#1" 0#$-u ""n le/i *""l

sein11" $nsu*en *un1in *enun-" 0e*/eli"nn2" -"n *en2i*0"n -"n" -i

/"n. Ai/"+n2" 0en,u"l"n 0e#us"""n *enu#un l"lu ""n *ene"n "#1" s""*.

H"l ini ""n +e#,"-i "0"/il" suu /un1" n"i se;"#" l"n1sun1 +"n0" /e#+""0.

A0"/il" e/i,""n A*e#i" *e*"n1 /e+ul -"n ,"-i *en"i"n su" /un1"

se;"#" /e#+""0: en"i"n suu /un1" +e#se/u+ +i-" *e*/u"+ "#1" s""* +u#un

-"n "l ini -"0"+ *en;e1" e$n$*i *e*"n"s. A0"/il" in>es+$# -"n 0el"u

e$n$*i *en1"ui /"?" en"i"n suu /un1" +e#se/u+ -i0e#lu"n un+u

*en-in1in"n e$n$*i *"" "#1" +i-" +u#un: ,us+#u /is" n"i le/i +in11i l"1i.


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Makro ekonomi

"ilai tukar mata rupia#

P"-" s""+ ini: nil"i +u"# #u0i" +e#"-"0 US D$ll"# *ele*" i#" 7 i#"

in11" '.C 0e#sen (month to month) e le>el '5:5'' 0e# -$ll"# AS. A0"/il"

-ili"+ -"#i nil"i +u"# 0e# ' #u0i": *"" s"*" -en1"n &.&&&&43 US D$ll"#. D"#i

sisi es+e#n"l: sensi+ies+$# +e#"-"0 "#" e/i,""n +e Fe- 0"-" 0e#+e*u"n

FOM. Te#-"0"+ -"#i sisi in+e#n"l 2"i+u *enin1"+n2" 0e#*in+""n >"lu+" "sin1un+u 0e*/"2"#"n u+"n1 -"n -e>i-en se;"#" *usi*"n -i u"#+"l II +"un &'3.

Di*"n" In-$nesi" ""n *ul"i un+u *en,"1" s+"/ili+"s nil"i +u"# #u0i" sesu"i


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D"#i sisi 0en1elu"#"n: 0e*/en+u"n *$-"l /#u+$ +u*/u se/es"# 9.5@

0e#sen -"#i +"un e +"un: 0e#;"0"+"n -"#i es0"nsi 9.4 0e#sen 0"-" u"#+"l

se/elu*n2". K$nsu*si s?"s+" n"i 3.&' 0e#sen: e;e0"+"n 2"n1 s"*" se0e#+i

0e#i$-e se/elu*n2" se*en+"#" /el"n," 0e*e#in+" *enin1"+ se/es"# .' 0e#sen:

*el"*/"+ -"#i .C5 0e#sen 0"-" u"#+"l ee*0"+ +"un +"un &'9. Es0$# +u#un

&.35 0e#sen: /e1i+u ,u1" i*0$# *en1"l"*i 0enu#un"n se/es"# .& 0e#sen.

Le*/"1" n$n 7 0#$


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*n$lasi di *ndonesia

201

0

2011 201

2

201+ 201, 2015

*n$lation

("nnu"l 0e#;en+ ;"n1e) 3.' 3.9 9.5 C.9 @.4

ank *ndonesia -ar!et

("nnu"l 0e#;en+ ;"n1e) 3.& 3.& 9.3 9.3 9.3 3.&

-abel 1% -in!kat in$lasi ta#un 2010 . 2015

Gra$ik +% -in!kat in$lasi di *ndonesia ta#un 2010 / 201,%

V$l"+ili+"s in


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+"un &'9. Bil" -ili"+ se;"#" +"un"n in


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Tin1"+ Pen1"n11u#"n Te#/u" (TPT) 0"-" Fe/u"#i &'3 se/es"# 3.C' 0esen:

*enin1"+ -i/"n-in1"n -en1"n +"un l"lu 3.4 0esen. N"*un: 0en1"n11u#"n ini

le/i #en-" "0"/il" -i /"n-in1"n -en1"n 0e#sen+"se Tin1"+ Pen1"n11u#"n

Te#/u" (TPT) A1us+us &'9 se/es"# 3.89 0esen. Tin1"+ 0en1"n11u#"n ini ""n

/e#"i+"n e#"+ -en1"n +in1"+ e*isin"n -i In-$nesi".

Kemiskinan di *ndonesia

2010 2011 2012 201+ 201,

Kemiskinan &elati$

( -"#i 0$0ul"si)

'5.5 '.3 ''.4 ''.3 ''.&

Kemiskinan (bsolut

(-"l"* ,u+""n) 5' 5& 8 8 C

-abel 2 -in!kat kemiskinan di *ndonesia pada ta#un 2010 / 201,%

Ke*isin"n -i In-$nesi" 0"-" +"un ini -i0e#i#""n *en;"0"i 5&.3 ,u+"

,i?" "+"u '.3 0e#sen -"#i ,u*l" 0en-u-u In-$nesi". H"l ini -i"n+"#"n2"

-i"#en""n n"in2" se,u*l" "#1" e/u+u"n: n"in2" /""n /""# (ene#1i):

-"n *enin1"+n2" in


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*enin1"+n2" e*isin"n -i In-$nesi" ini *e*ilii -"*0" 2"n1 -"0"+ -i"+""n

;uu0 /es"# /"1i 0e#us"""n -i In-$nesi" +e#u+"*" 0e#us"""n PT Mul+i0$l"#

T/. (MLPL). H"l ini -i"#en""n -en1"n *enin1"+n2" in


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-en1"n ;"#" 2"n1 le/i


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&&' • Pen2e-i" l"2"n"n +$+"l s$lusi us""

• Pen-uun1 +#"ns


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Struktur menejemen perusa#aan

• K$*is"#is !

P#esi-en K$*is"#is ! Te$ L. S"*/u"1"

K$*is"#is ! 6$n"+"n L. P"#"0"

K$*is"#is ! D#. Isn"n-"# R. Ali: SE: MM

K$*is"#is ! 6e


14/26


15/26

ele+#$ni: s""+ ini -i"ui se/"1"i 0e#us"""n /es"# 2"n1 *en1el$l" /e/e#"0"

0e#us"""n +e#*"su /isnis #i+el: +ele$*uni"si: *ul+i*e-i" -"n +en$l$1i: -"n

us"" l"inn2".

PT Mul+i0$l"# T/. (MLPL) *e/uu"n ine#," 2"n1 le/i /"i

-i/"n-in1"n -en1"n 0e#i$-e 2"n1 l"lu. D"l"* year on year, 0en-"0"+"n PT

Mul+i0$l"# T/. (MLPL) *enin1"+: +e#u+"*" -i-$#$n1 $le 0e#+u*/u"n /isnis

#i+el: 2"n1 *e#u0""n 0en2u*/"n1 0en-"0"+"n +e#/es"# -"#i PT Mul+i0$l"# T/.

(MLPL). PT Mul+i0$l"# T/. (MLPL) *e*0e#i#""n 0en-"0"+"nn2" ""n

/e#+u*/u i#" i#" se/es"# '@ AGR sel"*" 0e#i$-e &' s.-. &'3. PT

Mul+i0$l"# T/. (MLPL) *e*/uu"n l"/" /e#si sei+"# R0 4'.9 *illi"#

se0"n,"n1 &'9 "+"u -i/il"n1 /is" sei+"# @ 0e#sen -i/"n-in1"n +"un

se/elu*n2". Se*en+"#" i+u 0en-"0"+"n +e#/es"# -"#i 0e#us"""n ini 5&.@ 0e#sen

-i/"n-in1"n +"un &'5. Be#-"s"#"n l"0$#"n eu"n1"n 2"n1 "-": 0enin1"+"n

ini -ise/"/"n $le 0en,u"l"n 0e#"n1"+ e#"s se#+" 0e#+u*/u"n 0en,u"l"n s$lusi

-"n ,"s": +e#*"su managed services $le 0e#se#$"n -"n "n" 7 "n" us"":

-en1"n "-"n2" 0enin1"+"n ini *"" l"/" $+$# -"n l"/" /e#si ,u1" *enin1"+.

Pe#us"""n +e#se/u+ *en2"+""n /"?" *e#e" /e#"sil *en1"+"si +"n+"n1"n

2"n1 "-" -en1"n *enin1"+"n 0en-"0"+"n: +"n+"n1"n 2"n1 -ise/"/"n $le

"-"n2" isi /e#/"2"#. PT Mul+i0$l"# T/. (MLPL)

/i"s"n2" *en1"l$"si"n @ 7 '& 0e#sen -"#i +$+"l +"#1e+ 0en-"0"+"n un+u *$-"l

/el"n,".

(nalisis S67-

Keu"+"n (s+#en1+s)

Me*ilii tracking record se/"1"i

*i+#" s$lusi TI

Kele*""n (?e"ness)

Se/"1i"n /es"# e?",i/"n

0e#us"""n "-"l" ,"n1" 0en-e


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6"#in1"n -is+#i/usi +$$ #i+el 2"n1

lu"s -i In-$nesi" -"n in"

Hu/un1"n /"i -en1"n 0en2e-i" TI

el"s -uni"Kese*0"+"n (O00$#+uni+ies)

Pe#e*/"n1"n in-us+#i TI -"l"*

ne1e#i *en;i0+""n 0e#*in+""n 2"n1

+in11i

Outlook 0$si+i< e$n$*i In-$nesi"

-"n in" se#+" in-us+#i #i+el

An;"*"n (T#e"+s)

$*0e+isi 2"n1 e+"+

u#"n1n2" in


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-"n *el"u"n #e1#esi MLPL -"n IHSG: Sein11" /e+" -"#i MLPL -i+e*u"n.

R"+" 7 #"+" 0en1e*/"li"n "+"u return 0"s"# ,u1" -i+e*u"n.

G$>e#n*en+ /$n- 2iel- C.54

S0#e"- ;#e-i+ .&

Ris


18/26

Be#iu+ ini *e#u0""n -"+" un+u 0#$2esi 3 +"un -"n un+u *enil"i

"0"" "#1" s""* -"#i MLPL undervalued "+"u overvalued . Te#-"0"+ 3 +"un

-"+" historical 2"n1 s"2" -"0"+"n -"#i l"0$#"n eu"n1"n MLPL. D"#i li*" +"un

-"+" historical +e#se/u+: s"2" i+un1 -"+" 0#$2esi un+u 3 +"un e-e0"n -en1"n

/e/e#"0" "su*si se/"1"i /e#iu+.

• +igh growth se/es"# 'C.9@ 2"n1 *e#u0""n "sil "li "n+"#" etantion

ate -"n ROE

• #ost of evenue se/es"# C'.58 2"n1 *e#u0""n nil"i "/s$lu+ -"#i #e#"+"

0e#/"n-in1"n "n+"#" cost of revenue -en1"n net revenue se+i"0 +"unn2".

• Operating expanse se/es"# '&5 2"n1 *e#u0""n nil"i "/s$lu+ -"#i #e#"+"

0e#/"n-in1"n "n+"#" operating expenses -en1"n gross profit se+i"0 +"unn2".• ax se/es"# & 2"n1 *e#u0""n #e#"+" 0e#en""n 0"," -i In-$nesi".

• Stable growth se/es"# @.& 2"n1 *e#u0""n 0#$2esi 0e#+u*/u"n

e$n$*i In-$nesi" $le B"n In-$nesi". Stable growth -i1un""n un+u

*en1i+un1 net revenue -"#i perpetuity.

• Other income se/es"# '4.5 2"n1 *e#u0""n #e#"+" 0e#/"n-in1"n

0en-"0"+"n l"in 7 l"in -en1"n +$+"l 0en-"0"+"n se+i"0 +"unn2".

Nil"i percentage of sales -ii+un1 /e#-"s"#"n historical balance sheet -"n income statement MLPL: 2"i+u #e#"+" 0e#/"n-in1"n "n+"#"

• cash -en1"n net revenue se+i"0 +"unn2":

• #e;ei>"/les -en1"n net revenue se+i"0 +"unn2":

• inventories -en1"n net revenue se+i"0 +"unn2":

• current asset -en1"n net revenue se+i"0 +"unn2":

• fixed asset -en1"n net revenue se+i"0 +"unn2":

• 2" other asset -en1"n net revenue se+i"0 +"unn2":

• total asset -en1"n net revenue se+i"0 +"unn2":

• current liabilities -en1"n net revenue se+i"0 +"unn2":• long term liabilities -en1"n net revenue se+i"0 +"unn2":

• total liabilities -en1"n net revenue se+i"0 +"unn2":

• retained earnings -en1"n net revenue se+i"0 +"unn2":

• other equity -en1"n net revenue se+i"0 +"unn2":

• total equity -en1"n net revenue se+i"0 +"unn2": -"n

• total equity and liabilities -en1"n net revenue se+i"0 +"unn2".

Nil"i operating cash flow per sales -i-"0"+ -"#i *e*/"1i nil"i operating

cash flow -en1"n net revenue. Nil"i depreciation and amortiation per sales


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-i-"0"+ -"#i *e*/"1i nil"i depreciation and amortiation -en1"n net revenue.

ilai capital expenditures per sales -i-"0"+ -"#i *e*/"1i nil"i capital

expenditures -en1"n net revenue. D"n "#i+*"+i; *e"n *e#u0""n #e#"+" -"#i:

operating cash flow: depreciation and amortiation: capital expenditures +i"0

+"un"nn2".

(sumsi

(sumsi

Hi!# Gro)t# 'C.9@

Aost o$ &evenue C'.58

7peratin! EBpense '&.C8

-aB &ate &.&&Stable Gro)t# @.&

7t#er *n4ome '4.5


20/26


21/26

In;$*e T" (T"n11u"n)

Ne+ In;$*e :4'3:3@' 5:'@:C35 5:C'&:@C9 9:3'9:'54 3:594:99@

Per4enta!e o$ Sales $or alan4e S#eet

Per4enta!e o$ sales

Asse+

"s 5.8'

Re;ei>"/les '&.45

In>en+$#ies '@.&

u##en+ Asse+s @@.8@

Fie- Asse+s &.C@

O+e# "sse+s 9.8@

-otal asset '55.4&

Li"/ili+ies "n- Eui+2

u##en+ Li"/ili+ies 95.3&

L$n1 Te#* Li"/ili+ies '.'3

-otal ?iabilities @9.@3

Re+"ine- E"#nin1s C.@

O+e# Eui+2 9&.95

-otal EDuit @8.&3

-otal ?iablities and EDuit '55.4&


22/26

alan4e S#eet M?P?

His+$#i;"l

Cear 2010 2011 2012 201+ 201,

Asse+

"s 5:&95:4CC :&58:@@5 :C43:38 9:5&':9@' :4&4:9C@

Re;ei>"/les :949:C95 :&C5:889 5':939 598:&3& 3@9:5'

In>en+$#ies ':&34:994 ':9'5:359 :&@9:@ :83:'@5 5:9&@:39C

u##en+ Asse+s 4:&&@:@C5 3:888:@@9 @:8@':9&@ ':&33:8@' '':4C:5C

Fie- Asse+s :&':55 :@:45 :385:&@8 5:&'8:99 5:93':'9

O+e# "sse+s ':34C:9&4 3'3:'& @54:@4 :583:@'& ':58&:5C8

T$+"l "sse+ '9:&'@:@C@ '9:5'9:4&4 '9:&CC:'C5 &:33:@8 :48C:&3

Li"/ili+ies "n- Eui+2

u##en+ Li"/ili+ies 5:4&3:@&5 9:&9:C@9 9:@4':@3 4:C3':8' C:54':44&

L$n1 Te#* Li"/ili+ies ':C'&:35 :'5:'&9 :5@5:93C 5:9@:' 9:'5&:C@9

T$+"l Li"/ili+ies 3:3'@:'53 @:'@3:8@C 4:&53:''& '':4C:'9 ':3&:@59

Re+"ine- E"#nin1s :C@9:8@9 :C&C:&&4 :CC:8'@ 9:55:89 3:8'3:998

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23/26

P#$,e;+i$n Te#*in"l V"lue

Cear 2015 2018 2019 201: 201= Perpetuit

Asse+

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24/26

Cear 2010 2011 2012 201+ 201,

EBIT 3:583:@'' C8:5 'C3:5&@ ':4@3:'9 :9C:&@&

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P#$,e;+i$n Te#*in"l V"lue

Cear 2015 2018 2019 201: 201= Perpetuit

EBIT

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(rit#mati4 Means o$ 7AF3 '(3 and A(PE

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Arithmetic

Mean

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93.@

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8.@5

'&.35

13.46%

'(


25/26

A(PE


26/26

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