22
Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc. April 16, 2018 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 [email protected] Debbie Johnson 480-664-1333 [email protected] Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box

Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

Stock Market Indicators:Fundamental, Sentiment,

& TechnicalYardeni Research, Inc.

April 16, 2018

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Joe Abbott732-497-5306

[email protected]

Debbie Johnson480-664-1333

[email protected]

Mali Quintana480-664-1333

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Page 2: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Fundamental Stock Market Indicator 1-2Global Growth Barometer 3Economic Surprise Index 4Investors Intelligence Sentiment 5Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 6Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 7Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 8AAII Sentiment 9Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence 10S&P 500 Put Call Ratio 11Volatility 12Volume 13Dow Theory 14S&P 500 Moving Averages 15-16S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma 17S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 18S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50019

Page 3: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

4/16

12/31

YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR and S&P 500 INDEX

S&P 500 Index

YRI Fundamental StockMarket Indicator*

* Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 1.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201940

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250

20

30

40

50

60

70

3/31

4/7

YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

Boom-Bust Barometer*

Consumer Comfort Index

* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.

yardeni.com

Figure 2.

Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

Page 1 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 4: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

4/16

4/16

S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES

S&P 500 Index

CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Index

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 3.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

4/7

4/16

S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,inverted scale)

S&P 500 Index

Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.

Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

Page 2 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 5: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019650

1050

1450

1850

2250

2650

3050

650

1050

1450

1850

2250

2650

3050

4/16

4/16

YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500

YRI Global Growth Barometer* (1079.7)

S&P 500 Index (2677.8)

* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 5.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

4/13

4/16

US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

Brent Crude Oil Price*(dollars per barrel)

S&P 500 Index

Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.* Nearby futures price.

yardeni.com

Figure 6.

Global Growth Barometer

Page 3 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 6: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

4/16

S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)

S&P 500 minus its200 day-moving average

Economic Surprise Indexyardeni.com

Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.

Figure 7.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

9

11

13

15

17

19

4/12

4/16

S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)

Economic Surprise Index

S&P 500 Forward P/E*

yardeni.com

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Citigroup.* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.

Figure 8.

Economic Surprise Index

Page 4 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 7: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

Figure 9.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Ratio Mar 27 2.83 Apr 3 2.63 Apr 10 2.27

4/10

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS

RatioBull/BearRatio*

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Bulls Bears Mar 27 49.5 17.5 Apr 3 47.6 18.1 Apr 10 42.2 18.6

4/10

PercentageBullsBears

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Correction Mar 27 33.0 Apr 3 34.3 Apr 10 39.2 4/10

PercentageCorrection Camp

yardeni.com

Source: Investors Intelligence.

Investors Intelligence Sentiment

Page 5 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 8: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20200

600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

30003400

200

600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

30003400

S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*

(ratio scale)

4/16

yarden

i.com

* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 10.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201600

6600

11600

16600

21600

26600

31600

1600

6600

11600

16600

21600

26600

31600

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*

(ratio scale)

4/16

yarden

i.com

* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 11.

Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0

Page 6 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 9: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20200

600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

30003400

200

600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

30003400

S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*

(ratio scale)

4/16

yarden

i.com

* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 12.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201600

6600

11600

16600

21600

26600

31600

1600

6600

11600

16600

21600

26600

31600

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*

(ratio scale)

4/16

yarden

i.com

* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 13.

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0

Page 7 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 10: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40

-20

0

20

40

-40

-20

0

20

40

S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMAvs.

BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE*

4/16

* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or more than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yarden

i.com

Figure 14.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40

-20

0

20

40

-40

-20

0

20

40

S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMAvs.

BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*

4/16

* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yarden

i.com

Figure 15.

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0

Page 8 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 11: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

Figure 16.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

25

50

75

100

0

25

50

75

100

4/11

AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS

AAII Bull Ratio*

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

4/11

AAII Bull/Bear Ratio

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Latest Readings Bulls Bears Apr 4 31.9 36.6 Apr 11 26.1 42.8

4/11

Bulls

Bears

* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears.Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

yardeni.com

AAII Sentiment

Page 9 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 12: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920

40

60

80

100

120

140

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

4/10

BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)

Consumer ConfidenceExpectations Index

yardeni.com

Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.

Figure 17.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920

30

40

50

60

70

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

4/10

BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)

Consumer Comfort Index

yardeni.com

Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Bloomberg.

Figure 18.

Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence

Page 10 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 13: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4/13

S&P 500 PUT/CALL(weekly data)

Average = 1.616(1996-2010)

Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

4/13

S&P 500 PUT/CALL(4-week ma)

Average = 1.624(1996-2010)

Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.

yardeni.com

Figure 20.

S&P 500 Put Call Ratio

Page 11 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 14: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

4/16

VIX: S&P 500

Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.

yardeni.com

Figure 21.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190

20

40

60

80

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

4/16

VIX: NASDAQ 100

Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.

yardeni.com

Figure 22.

Volatility

Page 12 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 15: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192

4

6

8

10

12

2

4

6

8

10

12

4/13

NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE WEEKLY VOLUME(billion shares, 4-week moving average)

52-week moving average

Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.

yarden

i.com

Figure 23.

Volume

Page 13 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 16: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192000

3500

5000

6500

8000

9500

11000

12500

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

21000

24000

27000

4/16DOW JONES STOCK AVERAGES(ratio scale)

Industrials (DJIA)

Transportation (DJTA)

Source: The Wall Street Journal.

yardeni.com

Figure 24.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019100

250

400

550

700

850

1000

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

3200

3600

4000

4/16S&P 500 STOCK INDEXES(ratio scale)

Industrials Composite*

Transportation Composite

* S&P 500 excluding Financials, Transports, and Utilities.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

Dow Theory

Page 14 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 17: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

28003000

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

28003000

4/16

-56.8% (510)

-16.0% (69)

-19.4% (154)

-9.8% (27)

-9.9% (59)

-7.7% (61)

-7.4% (27)

-12.4% (94)

* Dips are declines of less than 10%. Corrections are declines of 10% to 20%. Bear markets are declines of 20% or more. Number of days in parentheses.

S&P 500 INDEX: 2008-2017*(log scale)

S&P 500 (2677.84)

200-day moving average (2600.21)

50-day moving average (2687.06)

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 26.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

4/16

S&P 500 INDEX(as a percent of 200-day moving average)

% from 200-day moving average (2.7)

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 27.

S&P 500 Moving Averages

Page 15 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 18: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

3000

3400

600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

3000

3400

4/16

S&P 500 INDEX*

Latest price: 2677.8450-dma: 2686.30200-dma: 2608.33

* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s.

(-) Latest price is -0.3% below the 50-dma.(+) Latest price is 2.6% above the 200-dma.

yardeni.com

Figure 28.

73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

4/13

S&P 500 INDEX TECHNICALSTHE DEATH CROSS & THE GOLDEN CROSS(50-dma relative to 200-dma, percent, weekly)

(2.8)

Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 29.

S&P 500 Moving Averages

Page 16 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 19: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

Figure 30.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19600

1200

1800

240030003600

4/16S&P 500*(price indexes)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19125

275

425

575725875

4/16INDUSTRIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

350

600

8501100

4/16CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19175

575

975

13751775

4/16INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19175

275

375

475

575675

4/16CONSUMER STAPLES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

200

300

400

500

4/16MATERIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19300

450

600

750

900

4/16

ENERGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1940

90

140

190240290

4/16REAL ESTATE

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1975

225

375

525675825

4/16

FINANCIALS

Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1975

115

155

195

235

4/16

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19225

425

625

82510251225

4/16HEALTH CARE

Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

200-day moving average* S&P 500 sector price indexes on ratio scales.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100

150

200

250

300350

4/16

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma

Page 17 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 20: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

Figure 31.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

4/16

S&P 500(price index as percentage of 200-dma)

% from 200-dma (2.7)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

4/16

INDUSTRIALS

(1.7)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

4/16

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

(5.7)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

4/16

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

(6.9)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30

-15

0

15

30

4/16

CONSUMER STAPLES

(-3.1)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

4/16

MATERIALS

(1.1)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

4/16

ENERGY

(5.7)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

4/16

REAL ESTATE

(-4.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

4/16

FINANCIALS

Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016

(2.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40

-20

0

20

40

4/16

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

(-2.2)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30

-15

0

15

30

4/16

HEALTH CARE

(-0.1)

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40

-20

0

20

40

4/16

UTILITIES

(-4.1) yardeni.com

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma

Page 18 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 21: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

Figure 32.

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

4/16

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.18

.20

.22

.24

.26

4/16

INDUSTRIALS

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.15

.20

.25

.30

.35

4/16

CONSUMER STAPLES

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.20

.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

.50

4/16INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

4/16

ENERGY

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.10

.15

.20

.25

4/16

MATERIALS

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.1

.2

.3

.4

4/16

FINANCIALS

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.04

.06

.08

.10

.12

.14

.16

4/16

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.25

.30

.35

.40

.45

4/16

HEALTH CARE

Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.08

.10

.12

.14

.16

.18

.20

4/16

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 500

Page 19 / April 16, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Page 22: Stock Market Sentiment & Technical · PDF fileJanuary 19, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators Yardeni Research, Inc. ... Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors

http://blog.yardeni.com

http://blog.yardeni.com

[email protected]

Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2018. All rights reserved. The informationcontained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is notnecessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation orwarranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, orcorrectness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the otherinformation provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted onwww.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones are issuedwithout regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needsof any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sellany securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guideto future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, butshould not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock.Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed asrecommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futurescontracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.

The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc.product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. andconstitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones may be downloaded, transmitted,broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwisedisseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent ofYardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from YardeniResearch, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietaryand intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. YardeniResearch, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property,including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/orto track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means,now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without furthernotice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civilremedies for the violation of its rights.

The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses.Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmittedby this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available onrequest.