Stiles-Hampton

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Sea Level Rise, Inundation Risks, andHow to Live With Them

www.wetlandswatch.org

Skip StilesExecutive Director, Wetlands Watch

January 25, 2011

Hampton Waterways Committee


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Virginia Climate Change Commission:Virginia Climate Change Commission:

Climate Change ImpactsClimate Change Impacts


At Least 2.3 feet of sea level rise (up to 5.2 feet) innext 100 years

3.1 o C increase in average temperature Increase in Rainfall Intensity (~11%)


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Sea Level Rise Virginias BiggestSea Level Rise Virginias BiggestChallengeChallenge


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EPA 2009

Recent Historical Sea Level RiseRecent Historical Sea Level Rise


Rise +

Fall -

Hot

Cold


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Glaciers 2 miles thick over New York =

Sea Level 360 feet lower



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John Earle /Virginian-Pilot

MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ~ 20,000 Years Ago

- 360 Feet



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Recent Historical Sea Level RiseRecent Historical Sea Level RiseLast Big Melt of glaciers = oceans 4-6 mabove present sea level with +3 o C

temperatures


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Impact Crater

~ 35 million

years ago

Previous Coastline?~150,000 Years Ago

(+5 m)


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14,000 YEARS AGO

10,000 YEARS AGO

7,000 YEARS AGO

5,000 YEARS AGO

Source: UNC Research Laboratories of Archeology

RECENT MID-ATLANTIC SEA LEVEL RISE

Depth BelowCurrent SeaLevel (inMeters)


Norfolk/Virginia Beach


11/91The Cost of Holding Back the Sea, Titus, et al

Land Sinking

Land Rising


One foot


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Virginia has the highest NOAA current and predicted sea levelincreases on East Coast

Outside of NewOrleans, HamptonRoads is largestpopulation area athighest risk from SeaLevel Rise in the USWetlands Watch - 2007

EPA 2008www.wetlandswatch.org


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100 year Sea Level Rise Projections (2008)

~1 1.7 feetGLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE2.8 5.3 mm/yr from thermal expansion andmelting of land glaciers (Rhamstorf)

What Makes up our Relative Sea Level Rise?

~ .6 feet

Relative Sea Level Rise intidewater/coastal Virginia

An additional ~2 mm/yr due to regionalsubsidence from

isostatic rebound

groundwater removal meteorite impact


S e a

R i s i n g

L a n

d F a

l l i n g


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DATE STORM TYPE ABOVE MHHW

August 23, 1933 Hurricane 6.27 feet

September 18, 2003 Hurricane Isabel 5.12 feet

March 7, 1962 Ash Wednesday Storm 5.05 feet

November 12, 2009 Veterans Day noreaster 4.99 feet

September 18, 1936 Hurricane 4.92 feet


November 22, 2006 Thanksgiving noreaster 3.96 feet

October 6, 2006 Columbus Day nor'easter 3.76 feet

January 28. 1998 Twin noreasters (#1) 3.26 feet

September 16, 1999 Hurricane Floyd 3.21 feet

February 5, 1998 Twin noreasters (#2) 3.12 feet

Source NOAA Tides and Currents www.wetlandswatch.org


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MLWMSL

MHWMHHW

Limit of Development

Mean Higher High Water = lower limit of development


18/91Source NOAA Tides and Currents www.wetlandswatch.org














19/91Source NOAA Tides and Currents www.wetlandswatch.org













- 1.5 feet in1906


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Built 1904Built 1902

P a r a d i s e C r e e k c a 1 8 5 0


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1933 Hurricane - storm of record

Oct 06 noreaster in 1906

Oct 06 noreaster in 2106


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Veterans Day 2009 Noreaster


~ 5 feet


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+ 2.3 ft.


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Examples of Climate ChangeExamples of Climate Change

ChallengesChallenges


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What Does 2.3 feet of Sea Level Rise Mean for StormWhat Does 2.3 feet of Sea Level Rise Mean for StormSurge?Surge?

4+ feet of surge = category 1 hurricane


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2.3 feet of Relative Sea Level Rise

4+ feet of surge = category 1 hurricane

+


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Category 2 hurricane surge (6-8 feet)

2110 Category 1 Surge Flooding


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Light RailNorfolkGeneralHospital

St. Patricks

ODU

N S Piers

www.wetlandswatch.or

NorfolkTerminals

East Ocean ViewRedevelopment

2110 Category 1 Surge Flooding

Category 1 hurricane in 2010


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Sh li T B /H i V l Ri k


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Shoreline Tax Base/Housing Values at Risk

LEGEND

Purple

Blue

Green

Yellow

Red

V A L U E


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Kristen Lentz Norfolk Director of Utilities


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Upper Tide Line(+1.6ft)

Ches Bay ActBuffer

Tidal Shorelinein 2100

Chesapeake BayPreservation ActCovers theZones we needto worry aboutwith sea levelrise


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Ft. MonroeRedevelopment


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Hamptons Bayside and location of proposed development

Chesapeake Bay


B e a c h R d .


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Shoreline Recession in Grandview/Hampton


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FEMA Post Hazard Mitigation Hurricane IsabelFEMA Post Hazard Mitigation Hurricane Isabel$4.5 million program in Norfolk $4.5 million program in Norfolk


Ho se fine Roads storm ater s stems etc ????


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House fine. Roads, storm water systems, etc.????


~$1.23 million

R a is e o n e b lo c k 1 8


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Front-Line City in Virginia Tackles Rise in Sea


INFILL LOT IN NORFOLK- PERMITS APPROVED 2009 in small tidal


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event on 2-7-10 shows bad judgement

ONLY ACCESS TO INFILL LOT IN NORFOLK- during minor tidal event on


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g2-7-10

ACCESS TO NORFOLK APARTMENTS APPROVED/BUILT 2009 during


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minor tidal event 2-07-10 road must be elevated = $$??


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Impact of Sea level Rise on Beaches


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300 FEET

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Virginia Beach

f l h


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Impact of Sea Level Rise on Virginia Beach

2 foot sea level rise = loss of 200+ feet of beach

2100 Shoreline(max)


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Vi i i B h S 2107


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Virginia Beach Summer 2107


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New Point Comfort Lighthouse

Mathews, VA

From 1885 to now shoreline hasmoved mile


Climate Change Impacts Can be Seen Now inClimate Change Impacts Can be Seen Now inVirginiaVirginia

Coastline on the Move whos responsible for safety and


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access to this house in 5-10 years?


ROAD


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Sea-level rise on VAs Eastern Shore

Tangier Island

global sea level rise = +27.2 inchesNWF Study onChes Bay


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Now

National Wildlife Federation Sea Level rise and Coastal Habitats in the

Chesapeake Bay Region

Lower Peninsula


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+.69meters



Lower Peninsula


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+ 1 meter



Lower Peninsula


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Superfund/Hazardous Waste sites near sealevel in Hampton Roads need re-evaluation


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Awareness and Urgency isAwareness and Urgency isGrowingGrowing


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We will see the ocean creep up into backyardsand witness increased flooding during

rainstorms and at high tide. Only those with noconcern for the future can afford to ignore thisdevelopment.

State of the Region Hampton Roads 2009

Awareness is Growing



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Federal Response Has Started



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Planning ToolsPlanning Tools



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HRPDC 3-year coastalzone study on climate

change(one of three in state 2009-2011)



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Federally-Mandated Planning Opportunities


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FEMAUS DOT

Federally Mandated Planning Opportunities


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Climate Change

Climate change poses a serious and growing threat to Virginia s roads, railways,ports, utility systems, and other critical infrastructure. Higher temperatures,rising sea levels, increased potential of flooding, more buckled pavements due toheat, and lower employee productivity due to increased illness are some of thepotential implications of climate change. Elevated atmospheric temperatureswill lead to rising sea levels that will cause storm surges, coastal flooding, anderosion more severe than occurs today. Temperature rise and the threat of morefrequent and intense heat waves can also seriously impair critical infrastructuresuch as roads and bridges as they will be more prone to failure due to extremeheat expansion and contraction. (p18)



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Hazard Mitigation Plansare Starting to Deal with

Sea Level Rise


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Floodplain Management Plansare Starting to Include ClimateChange and Sea Level Rise


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Comprehensive Land Use PlanningComprehensive Land Use Planning

Done in every locality every five years Takes a long-range view of localitys development Public involvement guaranteed

Can lead to changes in zoning, etc.

Comprehensive Plans Underway or Scheduled Soon

Virginia Beach 2010Chesapeake 2010-11Norfolk 2011Hampton 2010-11


Comp Plans Have Started to


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1-g Collaborate with local,

regional, and state agenciesin planning for climatechange.

Planning for climate changecan help county decisionmakers address the problemof sea level rise, and assesspotential economicopportunities in respondingto changing business andindustrial markets. Such

efforts should be done inconjunction with other government entities,including NorthamptonCounty, A-NPDC, and theVirginia state government.


Look at Climate Change

Recent Comprehensive Plans Getting Better


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p g


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Next Steps?Next Steps?



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Mapping Modeling - Impact Assessments

Economic Analysis What is the Cost of DoingNothing?

Begin to Develop Shoreline Solutions

Develop a Local Government Toolkit and startusing it



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High Resolution DigitalMaps are on the way

15 cm vertical (9accuracy)


Total Economic Impact of


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Anthropogenic Ecological

Short term Long term

$126,230,366.20 $185,765,366.80 $4,239,764.75 $63,685,680.69

Total Economic Impact ofSelected Areas within the

Middle Peninsula

Total Short term Costs of SelectedAreas in the Middle Peninsula

$157,470,131.60 $211,916,046.90

Total Long term Costs of Selected Areas in the Middle

Peninsula

$187,005,132.10 $249,451,074.50

MPPDC Lewie Lawrence


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Burke Environmental Associates

Living Shorelines and Sea Level Rise

M i g r a t i o n Sea Level Rise

Breakwater Elevation

Local Government Adaptation Toolkit


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+=

Local Government Adaptation ToolkitNearly Finished!


S


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Summary..

Sea Level Rise is being experienced today in Virginia intidewater we see it as higher storm surges

Localities must plan for sea level rise using land use, emergencymanagement, economic, and natural resources planning tools some Virginia localities have started

Virginia localities are starting work on sea level rise adaptation.

Citizens need to get involved in long range plans in their communities


Climate Change Work Pays off in the Present


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S T O RM S U RG E P RO T E C T I O N

Source of Sea Level Rise is of Little Importance to


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Hampton Roads


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