Steve Prisley 2012 National FIA User Group Meeting FIA DATA AND
THE EPA ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK FOR BIOGENIC CO 2 EMISSIONS
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OVERVIEW Background: EPA regulating CO 2 emissions; different
treatment for biogenic CO 2 ? Proposed accounting framework and
role of FIA data Issues and challenges Photo: 24dash.com 2
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BIOENERGY AND CARBON NEUTRALITY Biomass: forests, agricultural
products, wastes & residues IPCC approach for national GHG
inventories: treats emissions from biomass energy as carbon-neutral
Premises for carbon neutrality of biomass emissions: They contain
carbon that was taken from the atmosphere They will be recaptured
by subsequent regrowth of plants They would have occurred anyway
They are part of a short-term cycle relative to fossil fuel
emissions European stance: biomass energy is carbon neutral (for
now) 3
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RECENT EPA ACTIONS ON BIOGENIC CO 2 EMISSIONS EPA, under Clean
Air Act, establishes thresholds for stationary sources emitting CO
2 under PSD permitting August 2010 - NAFO files petition for
reconsideration of Tailoring Rule regarding treatment of biomass
emissions January 2011 Agency grants NAFO petition for
reconsideration of Tailoring Rule, and announces plans to defer
applicability of PSD to bioenergy and other biogenic sources (PSD
Deferral Rule) 4
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RECENT EPA ACTIONS ON BIOGENIC CO2 EMISSIONS March 2011
Deferral Rule and Guidance are published; includes plans for a
detailed examination of the science related to accounting for
biogenic CO 2 emissions May-Sept. 2011 Technical team development
of draft framework Oct-Dec.2011 Review by EPA Science Advisory
Board (SAB) March/April 2012- SAB Report expected Next: revisions
to framework? 5
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AN ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK TO ADJUST BIOGENIC CO 2 EMISSIONS FROM
STATIONARY SOURCES A unique framework is needed that: Accounts for
a stationary sources onsite CO 2 emissions, taking the biological
cycling of carbon into consideration, in a scientifically and
technically rigorous manner Provides the critical link between
direct emissions from source and dynamics occurring in terrestrial
biosphere Creates an adjustment factor that can be applied to
direct emissions 6
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TECHNICAL TEAM Oversight: Jen Jenkins, Sara Ohrel; EPA
Facilitation/Coordination: Mark Flugge, Diana Pape; ICF
International Technical Team: Thomas Buchholz, Spatial Informatics
Group Charles Canham, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies Katie
Hanks, RTI International Gregg Marland, Appalachian State
University Bruce McCarl, Texas A&M University Stephen Ogle,
Colorado State University Steve Prisley, Virginia Tech Neil
Sampson, The Sampson Group 7
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FRAMEWORK GOALS Accurately reflects the carbon outcome. Is
scientifically rigorous/defensible. Is simple and easy to
understand. Is simple and easy to implement. Is easily updated with
new data. Uses existing data sources. 8
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DEFINING THE SCOPE 9
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POTENTIAL APPROACHES Use U.S. GHG Inventory as a proxy for
national scale assessment of carbon stocks on land: Biogenic CO 2
emissions at stationary sources do not contribute to atmospheric
load as long as the LULUCF sector in the U.S. is a net sink
Categorical exclusion: Based on assumption that because biogenic
feedstocks grow, biogenic CO 2 never contributes to atmospheric
load No assessment of carbon stocks or link to the land Categorical
inclusion: Biogenic CO 2 = fossil CO 2 emissions at the stationary
source No assessment of carbon stocks or link to the land Lifecycle
emissions analysis: Comprehensive way to assess net GHG emissions
from use of biogenic fuel versus fossil fuels 10
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SELECTED APPROACH: FEEDSTOCK-BASED Feedstocks differ in their
likely impact on atmospheric CO 2 : Feedstocks with similar
properties or uses can be grouped together Management/harvest
characteristics might distinguish feedstocks Alternative fates
(i.e., anyway emissions): waste/residues, salvage 11
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SELECTED APPROACH: FEEDSTOCK-BASED Three broad categories of
biologically-based materials that might be used in a stationary
source: 1. Forest-Derived Woody Biomass 2. Agricultural Biomass 3.
Waste Materials Photo: Emily Jane Davis, from Biomass magazine
Photo: CleanTechnica.com Photo: Biomass magazine 12
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PREMISE OF THE FRAMEWORK Emissions from a stationary source can
be considered carbon-neutral to the extent that: They are
subsequently captured by vegetation regrowth, or They would likely
have occurred anywa y Framework will calculate a Biomass Accounting
Factor (BAF) to represent the extent to which these criteria are
met. 13
Slide 14
Stationary Source Sequestration Atmosphere FEEDSTOCK NEEDED
SEQUESTERED FRACTION CARBON CONTAINED IN PRODUCTS AND BYPRODUCTS
DIRECTEMISSIONS EMISSIONSFROMLAND- USE & MANAGEMENT CHANGES
EMISSIONS FROM LEAKAGE FEEDSTOCK IN STATIONARY SOURCE FEEDSTOCK
LOSSES DURING TRANSPORT & STORAGE FEEDSTOCK GROWTH ACCOUNTING
FRAMEWORK SCHEMATIC 14
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Stationary Source Sequestration Atmosphere PGE L (1 PRODC) PGE
SEQP PGE PRODC PGE (1 SEQP PRODC) PGE L PRODC SITE - TNC (1 PRODC)
LEAK (1 PRODC) PGE (1+L) PGE PGE (1+L) LAR PRODC + PGE (1+L) LAR (1
PRODC) ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK SCHEMATIC 15
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NBE = PGE (1 + L) (1 LAR) (1 PRODC) PGE SEQP + SITE_TNC (1
PRODC) + LEAK (1 PRODC) BAF = NBE / PGE NBE: Net Biogenic
EmissionsPRODC: Product Carbon (%) PGE: Potential Gross
EmissionsSEQP: Sequestered Proportion LAR: Level of Atmospheric
ReductionSITE_TNC: Total Net Change at Site L: Losses in
transport/storage FRAMEWORK EQUATION Where does FIA fit in? 16
Slide 17
Stationary Source Sequestration Atmosphere FEEDSTOCK NEEDED
SEQUESTERED FRACTION CARBON CONTAINED IN PRODUCTS AND BYPRODUCTS
DIRECTEMISSIONS EMISSIONSFROMLAND- USE & MANAGEMENT CHANGES
EMISSIONS FROM LEAKAGE FEEDSTOCK IN STATIONARY SOURCE FEEDSTOCK
LOSSES DURING TRANSPORT & STORAGE FEEDSTOCK GROWTH ACCOUNTING
FRAMEWORK SCHEMATIC 17
Slide 18
Stationary Source Sequestration Atmosphere FEEDSTOCK NEEDED
SEQUESTERED FRACTION CARBON CONTAINED IN PRODUCTS AND BYPRODUCTS
DIRECTEMISSIONS EMISSIONSFROMLAND- USE & MANAGEMENT CHANGES
FEEDSTOCK IN STATIONARY SOURCE FEEDSTOCK LOSSES DURING TRANSPORT
& STORAGE FEEDSTOCK GROWTH ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK SCHEMATIC
18
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Stationary Source Sequestration Atmosphere FEEDSTOCK NEEDED
SEQUESTERED FRACTION CARBON CONTAINED IN PRODUCTS AND BYPRODUCTS
DIRECTEMISSIONS FEEDSTOCK IN STATIONARY SOURCE FEEDSTOCK LOSSES
DURING TRANSPORT & STORAGE FEEDSTOCK GROWTH ACCOUNTING
FRAMEWORK SCHEMATIC 19
Slide 20
Stationary Source Sequestration Atmosphere FEEDSTOCK NEEDED
SEQUESTERED FRACTION CARBON CONTAINED IN PRODUCTS AND BYPRODUCTS
DIRECTEMISSIONS FEEDSTOCK IN STATIONARY SOURCE FEEDSTOCK GROWTH
ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK SCHEMATIC 20
Slide 21
Stationary Source Atmosphere FEEDSTOCK NEEDED CARBON CONTAINED
IN PRODUCTS AND BYPRODUCTS DIRECTEMISSIONS FEEDSTOCK IN STATIONARY
SOURCE FEEDSTOCK GROWTH ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK SCHEMATIC 21
ROLE OF FIA DATA Does regrowth balance emissions? Use FIA data
to estimate net growth surplus over removals Compute LAR: LAR =
(GROW + AVOIDEMIT) PGE * (1 + L) (Actually, LAR is capped at 1.0)
GROW: tons CO2 sequestered in regrowth AVOIDEMIT: CO2 emissions
that would have occurred anyway without energy production 23
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ROLE OF FIA DATA Recent growth exceeds removals (by more than
PGE): LAR = 1 Recent growth is below removals: LAR = 0 Recent
growth is positive but less than emissions: 0 < LAR < 1
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Slide 25
CASE STUDY EXAMPLE 30 MW electricity generation plant Consumes
1 bone dry ton wood per megawatt produced Consumes 250,000 tons
wood per year Equal to 415,800 tCO 2 e (PGE) Transport/storage
losses negligible (L = 0) 25
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CASE STUDY EXAMPLE Case 1: Source region = New England Annual
sequestration in region: 60,484,044 tCO 2 e LAR = 1 (60,484,044
>> 415,800) BAF = 0 Case 2: Source region = New Hampshire
Annual sequestration in region: 104,252 tCO 2 e LAR = (104,252 /
415,800) = 0.2507 BAF = 0.7493 26
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ISSUES Technical implementation issues: What is recent? Time
scale for G/R? Where? Spatial scale? Compared to what? Baselines?
Policy implementation issues: Time scale Leakage Opt-out?
Certification? Import/export considerations Marginal versus average
accounting 27
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TECHNICAL ISSUES: WHAT IS RECENT? Setting a time period for
sequestration assessment is a policy decision Balance between time
and space influences precision Approx. 5 years would (hopefully)
represent a complete FIA measurement cycle in Eastern US Examine
G/R within past survey period to compute regional GROW factors
Update as new data become available 28
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TECHNICAL ISSUES: SPATIAL SCALE? Balance between time and space
influences precision Working forest: consider ownership and
availability National? Not responsive to local/regional imbalances
Regional? Can have regional default factors- ease of use Arbitrary
regions; woodsheds overlap Local? Need sufficient area for
precision of estimates Default factors not feasible 29
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Baselines have been defined in at least three ways: 1. The net
change from a current reference point Reference point baseline 2.
The net change from a bounded business-as-usual future Anticipated
future baseline 3. The net change from an alternative future
Comparative baseline Includes consideration of alternative energy
futures TECHNICAL ISSUES: BASELINES? 30
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POLICY ISSUES: TIME SCALE? Should CO 2 balances be projected
into the future? Products leaving a stationary source are not
counted: should future emissions from them be estimated? 31
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POLICY ISSUES: LEAKAGE? Leakage occurs when purchase of biomass
for energy causes market reactions that may result in emissions
elsewhere E.g., purchase of corn for ethanol production causes
ripple effect among agricultural substitutes that results in
unreported emissions Indirect land-use change is often a result How
to quantify? How to verify? How to attribute responsibility?
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POLICY ISSUES: OPT-OUT? Should stationary sources be given the
opportunity to opt- out of this framework? E.g., if they can
document sustainability of supply and regrowth What are the
reporting, verification burdens? Is third-party certification
enough? Sources for such plants would need to be withdrawn from
analyses for other plants how? 33
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Photo: James Lowe POLICY ISSUES: IMPORT/EXPORT Pellet export
facility, Eastport, ME Exports impact G/R balance If no emissions,
not in system Disincentive for domestic renewable energy? 34
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Photo: James Lowe POLICY ISSUES: MARGINAL/AVERAGE When new
plants are permitted, G/R balance changes: whats fair? Existing
plants grandfathered? BAF changes for everyone? Subsequent plants
have BAF = 0? 35
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SUMMARY Accounting framework is a work in progress Inevitably,
FIA data will be relied upon to provide estimates of
growth/removals related to biomass energy Issues of FIA spatial
scale, time scale, and working forest need resolution Technical and
policy issues remain 36