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Steps in Decision Steps in Decision Making Making Problem Identification Problem Identification (need Goal (need Goal Consensus) Consensus) Monitor the decision environment Monitor the decision environment Define the problem Define the problem Specify decision objectives Specify decision objectives Diagnose the problem Diagnose the problem Problem Solution Problem Solution (need Technical (need Technical Knowledge) Knowledge) Develop alternative solutions Develop alternative solutions Evaluate alternatives Evaluate alternatives Choose the best alternative Choose the best alternative Implement the chosen alternative Implement the chosen alternative

Steps in Decision Making Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus)Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus) –Monitor the decision environment –Define

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Page 1: Steps in Decision Making Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus)Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus) –Monitor the decision environment –Define

Steps in Decision MakingSteps in Decision Making• Problem IdentificationProblem Identification (need Goal Consensus) (need Goal Consensus)– Monitor the decision environmentMonitor the decision environment– Define the problemDefine the problem– Specify decision objectivesSpecify decision objectives– Diagnose the problemDiagnose the problem

• Problem SolutionProblem Solution (need Technical Knowledge) (need Technical Knowledge)– Develop alternative solutionsDevelop alternative solutions– Evaluate alternativesEvaluate alternatives– Choose the best alternativeChoose the best alternative– Implement the chosen alternativeImplement the chosen alternative

Page 2: Steps in Decision Making Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus)Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus) –Monitor the decision environment –Define

Contingency FrameworkContingency Framework

HIGH

LOW

TEC

HN

ICA

L K

NO

WLE

DG

E(P

roble

m S

olu

tion)

LOWHIGH GOAL CONSENSUS(Problem Identification)

INDIVIDUAL: INDIVIDUAL:

INDIVIDUAL: INDIVIDUAL:

ORGANIZATION:

ORGANIZATION:

ORGANIZATION:

ORGANIZATION:

11

4433

22

RATIONAL APPROACHCOMPUTATION

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

BARGAININGCOALITION FORMATION

CARNEGIE MODEL

JUDGMENTTRIAL AND ERROR

INCREMENTAL DECISIONPROCESS MODEL

BARGAINING, JUDGMENTINSPIRATION, IMITATION

CARNEGIE , INCREMENTALPROCESS MODELS,EVOLVING INTO GARBAGECAN MODEL

Page 3: Steps in Decision Making Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus)Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus) –Monitor the decision environment –Define

Garbage Can ModelGarbage Can Model

• Extreme Problem Uncertainty Extreme Problem Uncertainty – i.e., low goal consensus and low technical i.e., low goal consensus and low technical

knowledgeknowledge

• Streams of EventsStreams of Events– ProblemsProblems– SolutionsSolutions– ParticipantsParticipants– Choice opportunitiesChoice opportunities

Page 4: Steps in Decision Making Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus)Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus) –Monitor the decision environment –Define

Garbage Can Model: Garbage Can Model: ImplicationsImplications

• Solutions may be proposed to problems Solutions may be proposed to problems that do not exist.that do not exist.

• Choices may be made without solving Choices may be made without solving problems.problems.

• Problems persist without being solved.Problems persist without being solved.

• A few problems are solved.A few problems are solved.

Page 5: Steps in Decision Making Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus)Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus) –Monitor the decision environment –Define

Escalation of CommitmentEscalation of CommitmentEscalationEscalation occurred when occurred when the British government the British government continued funding the continued funding the Concorde supersonic jet Concorde supersonic jet long after its lack of long after its lack of commercial viability was commercial viability was apparent. Some scholars apparent. Some scholars now refer to escalation of now refer to escalation of commitment as the commitment as the “Concorde Fallacy.”“Concorde Fallacy.”

Causes:Causes:

•Gambler’s fallacyGambler’s fallacy

•Self-justificationSelf-justification

•Sunk costsSunk costs

© Corel Corp. With permission

Page 6: Steps in Decision Making Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus)Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus) –Monitor the decision environment –Define

FramingFraming

• To prevent the way a problem is To prevent the way a problem is presented presented (framing)(framing) from biasing the from biasing the decision:decision:– Try to look at problem in different ways Try to look at problem in different ways • Re-word itRe-word it

• Put yourself in the position of other peoplePut yourself in the position of other people

• Leave the problem and come back to it laterLeave the problem and come back to it later

Page 7: Steps in Decision Making Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus)Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus) –Monitor the decision environment –Define

Group Decision MakingGroup Decision MakingADVANTAGES:ADVANTAGES:• More background More background

knowledgeknowledge • More More alternativesalternatives

generatedgenerated• More More understandingunderstanding

of the decisionof the decision• More More supportsupport for for

decisiondecision• Helps fulfill Helps fulfill social social

needsneeds

DISADVANTAGES:DISADVANTAGES:• Time consuming, Time consuming,

inefficientinefficient• Ineffective Ineffective

Compromise Compromise decisionsdecisions

• GroupthinkGroupthink, social , social pressure, conflictpressure, conflict

• Lack of clear Lack of clear responsibilityresponsibility

Page 8: Steps in Decision Making Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus)Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus) –Monitor the decision environment –Define

Conditions for GroupthinkConditions for Groupthink

• Team leader’s opinion is known

• Team is highly cohesive

• Team is isolated from outside influences

• Team has recent decision failures

Page 9: Steps in Decision Making Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus)Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus) –Monitor the decision environment –Define

Creative OrganizationsCreative Organizations• Decentralized / Low Bureaucracy Decentralized / Low Bureaucracy

• Open channels of communication Open channels of communication

• Creative people identified by testsCreative people identified by tests,, past achievements past achievements

• Free time to create Free time to create

• Freedom to choose problems Freedom to choose problems

• Assignment of nonspecialists to problemsAssignment of nonspecialists to problems

• Long-time orientation (Resources allocated without Long-time orientation (Resources allocated without expectation of immediate payoff)expectation of immediate payoff)

• Tolerate FailuresTolerate Failures

• Reward SuccessesReward Successes

Page 10: Steps in Decision Making Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus)Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus) –Monitor the decision environment –Define

Creative PeopleCreative People

• Background KnowledgeBackground Knowledge• CuriosityCuriosity• Open-mindednessOpen-mindedness• Self-ConfidenceSelf-Confidence• Not afraid to be differentNot afraid to be different• PersistencePersistence• Relaxed and playful attitudeRelaxed and playful attitude

Page 11: Steps in Decision Making Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus)Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus) –Monitor the decision environment –Define

Increasing Your CreativityIncreasing Your Creativity

• Mental ExercisesMental Exercises

• Keep Optimistic AttitudeKeep Optimistic Attitude

• Speak to Lead UsersSpeak to Lead Users

• Maintain an Idea NotebookMaintain an Idea Notebook

Page 12: Steps in Decision Making Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus)Problem Identification (need Goal Consensus) –Monitor the decision environment –Define

Improving Decision-Making Improving Decision-Making EffectivenessEffectiveness

• Work on enhancing your creativityWork on enhancing your creativity• Learn from past decisions, but don’t waste time Learn from past decisions, but don’t waste time

regretting pastregretting past• Distinguish between idea getting and evaluatingDistinguish between idea getting and evaluating• Seek advice, when practicalSeek advice, when practical• As a group leader, don’t dominate the discussionAs a group leader, don’t dominate the discussion• When possible, “sleep on” decisions, but don’t When possible, “sleep on” decisions, but don’t

procrastinate beyond when a decision should be procrastinate beyond when a decision should be mademade