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STEPHEN HARPERSTEPHEN HARPERGLOBAL DIRECTORGLOBAL DIRECTORENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT POLICYENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT POLICY
MAY 2011 MAY 2011
INTELLIGENT SUSTAINABILITY: INTELLIGENT SUSTAINABILITY:
ICT’s Potential ContributionICT’s Potential Contribution
Source: Global Footprint Network
If consumption trends continue, we will need two Earths to support us
Smart behaviors get us here
You Need to Have a Smart SocietyYou Need to Have a Smart SocietyTo Have a Sustainable SocietyTo Have a Sustainable Society
Technology and Carbon EmissionsTechnology and Carbon Emissions
Use Computing to Improve Energy Savings Outside Information and
Communications Technology
98% = The Big Opportunity
Drive Computingto Be More Energy Efficient
~2% Opportunity
Aggregate Demand for Computing AcceleratingAggregate Demand for Computing Accelerating
4
74.5 Quintillion transistors shipped
in 2010
OR
10 Billion transistors
per person on earth
Source: Intel/WSTS
2000-2010:
68% CAGR
80x1018
0
70x1018
60x1018
50x1018
40x1018
30x1018
20x1018
10x1018
Compared to the First Billion PCs InstalledThe Next Connected 2 Billion PCs Will…
…consume half the energy of 1st billion PCs
…deliver 17x the computational capacity
Source: Intel Microprocessor Marketing and Business Planning, and Intel iAG/PCCA Power Initiative team, PBCA-PPM
Compute
Capacity
To Build
Smarter
Societies
20071 Billion PCs Installed Base
20142 Billion PCs Installed Base
151 TeraWatt-hr
1Billion PCsComputeCapacityEnergy
320 TeraWatt-hr
½ Energy
17x
2 Billion PCs
ComputeCapacity
6
The Micro Story at the Microprocessor Level
Source: “A Smarter Shade of Green,” ACEEE Report for the Technology CEO Council, 2008.Source: “A Smarter Shade of Green,” ACEEE Report for the Technology CEO Council, 2008.
AutomobileAutomobiless
Passenger Passenger AirlinesAirlines
AgricultureAgriculture
Steel Steel ManufacturManufactur
inging
LightingLighting
Computer Computer SystemsSystems
40 percent
121 percent
132 percent
167 percent
339 percent
2,857000 percent
19781978 20082008Energy-Energy-
efficiency efficiency ImprovementImprovement
The Micro Story at the System Level
Estimated Annual Energy Consumption
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Unmanaged Pentium® Dual Processor 945
with CRT display
KW
h C
onsu
med
per
Year
(low
er
is b
ett
er)
For system configuration details, please see Appendix on page 49.Performance tests/ratings are provided assuming specific computer systems and/or components and reflect the approximate performance of Intel products as measured by those tests. Any difference in system hardware or
software design or configuration may affect actual performance. This data may vary from other material generated for specific marketing requests.
Unmanaged Pentium® Dual Processor 945
with LCD display
Unmanaged Core™2 Duo Processor E6550
with LCD display
Managed Core™2 Duo Processor E6550 with
LCD display
Managed Core™2 Duo Processor T7700 mobile platform
229
59
GoingMobile
1015
938
655
>17x Reduction
Technology and Carbon Emissions
Use Computing to Improve Energy Savings Outside Information and
Communications Technology98% = The Big
Opportunity- The “macro story”
Drive Computingto Be More Energy Efficient
~2% Opportunity – the “micro story”
“Macro Story” Evidence
American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) studied this issue and concluded:
– ICT seen as a major factor in improving energy efficiency of US economy during the Internet era
– “For every extra Kwh of electricity that has been demanded by ICT, the US economy increased its overall energy savings by a factor of about 10…” (2008)
The Climate Group and the “Global e-Sustainability Initiative” published a report entitled, “Smart 2020: Enabling the Low Carbon Economy in the Information Age” (2008), concluding:– Smart 2020 concludes that ICT strategies could reduce up to 15%
percent of global emissions in 2020 against a “business as usual” baseline
US Addendum to Smart 2020 report, prepared by Boston Consulting Group indicates that ICT strategies could reduce US carbon emissions by up to 22 percent by 2020 vs. business-as-usual
TAKE AWAY: ICT strategies offer huge potential for addressing climate challenge BUT there is a huge gap between actual performance (ACEEE) and potential (Smart 2020) 9
10
Macro Story – Increasing the EE of Other SectorsMacro Story – Increasing the EE of Other Sectors
Industrial Robots
Logistics for Transportation
LEED Certified Buildings
Smart Motors
Smart Power Delivery
Video Conferencing
Online Entertainment
e-Commerce
Paperless Office
Converting Atoms to Bits
On-line Banking
Digital Media Content
AutomationAutomation SubstitutionSubstitution De-MaterializationDe-Materialization
The “Cloud” as an Energy Efficiency Driver
The Data Center and the network is The Data Center and the network is at the center of the “macro story”at the center of the “macro story”
The Carbon Disclosure Project The Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) commissioned Verdantix to (CDP) commissioned Verdantix to examine the impact of a broad US examine the impact of a broad US roll-out of Cloud Computing, based roll-out of Cloud Computing, based on extrapolation from existing case on extrapolation from existing case studies:studies:– Huge CO2 emissions reductionsHuge CO2 emissions reductions– Huge financial savingsHuge financial savings– Strong positive financial ROIStrong positive financial ROI– Indirect benefits from increased Indirect benefits from increased
business process efficiencies and business process efficiencies and organizational flexibilityorganizational flexibility
SOURCE: The Carbon Disclosure Project/Verdantix: Cloud Computing: The IT SOURCE: The Carbon Disclosure Project/Verdantix: Cloud Computing: The IT Solution for the 21Solution for the 21stst Century Century
12 12
Closing the Actual-to-Potential GapRequires Smart Public Policies
The full potential of ICT NOT realized due to a variety The full potential of ICT NOT realized due to a variety of of market failures:market failures:– Lack of information re potential of various technologiesLack of information re potential of various technologies– ““Principal/agent” issuesPrincipal/agent” issues– High upfront costsHigh upfront costs– Perceived small size of individual savingsPerceived small size of individual savings
These failures can only be overcome through smart These failures can only be overcome through smart policies, including:policies, including:– Developing a National Strategy or “Roadmap” to guide policy Developing a National Strategy or “Roadmap” to guide policy
directiondirection– Lead by example – Federal/state governments are the biggest Lead by example – Federal/state governments are the biggest
landowners, employers, vehicle fleet operators, etc.landowners, employers, vehicle fleet operators, etc.– Broadband, broadband, broadbandBroadband, broadband, broadband– Establish incentives and rewards for investments in EE ICTEstablish incentives and rewards for investments in EE ICT
A Few Words About Broadband
The International Telecommunications Union’s (ITU) The International Telecommunications Union’s (ITU) Broadband Commission recently released its report, Broadband Commission recently released its report, “The “The Broadband Bridge: Linking ICT with Climate Action for a Broadband Bridge: Linking ICT with Climate Action for a Low-Carbon Economy”Low-Carbon Economy”
This report highlights the central role of more and faster This report highlights the central role of more and faster broadband to realizing the promise of “Green broadband to realizing the promise of “Green byby IT” or the IT” or the “macro story”:“macro story”:– Climate mitigation via transformational changes in the economy Climate mitigation via transformational changes in the economy
via the dematerialization of physical products and systems (travel via the dematerialization of physical products and systems (travel substitution and e-products and services) as well as smarter substitution and e-products and services) as well as smarter buildings, transport and systemsbuildings, transport and systems
– Climate adaptation via enabling more and better climate modeling, Climate adaptation via enabling more and better climate modeling, weather information and disaster-response capabilitiesweather information and disaster-response capabilities
Water Utility Infrastructure
Leaks, drips and theft cost global water utilities ~$14B per yearLeaks, drips and theft cost global water utilities ~$14B per year Utilities want “neural networks for water”Utilities want “neural networks for water”
sensors, networks, controllers, models, applications & visualizationsensors, networks, controllers, models, applications & visualization
Holy grail for water quality monitoring is general-purpose, in Holy grail for water quality monitoring is general-purpose, in situ, real-time sensingsitu, real-time sensing
Modeling & Analytics
Sensors/ Controllers
EMBEDDED DEVICES SERVERS AND SOFTWARE APPLICATIONS
Use and quality data
Remote control
Leak detection
Metering/ Billing
Operations/Maintenance
Planning
Visualization
WaterMatch
Industrial and
Municipal Users log in by providing
brief information
Public can search for WWTPs by
location and distance
15
Large-scale participatory simulation of the Chesapeake Bay watershed as complex system
Players take roles of key stakeholders, such as farmers, developers, watermen, and policy-makers; make decisions based on real-world data; and see the impact of these decisions on each other and the watershed over a twenty-year period
Developed by multi-disciplinary faculty and student team; hailed by federal and state agency, private sector, NGO, and education leaders as the “first of its kind”
Innovative tool for multi-sector stakeholder engagement, capacity building for the collaborative governance of natural resources, and the testing of new policies, products, and services
Now completing Bay Game Global, a generalizable platform for global watershed simulation
www.uvabaygame.org
Digital Energy and Sustainability Solutions Campaign (DESSC)
DESSC is:DESSC is:– Coalition of industry, research organizations, NGOs Coalition of industry, research organizations, NGOs – Advance policies to drive sustainable growth through ICT Advance policies to drive sustainable growth through ICT
enabled energy efficiency and clean energy innovation enabled energy efficiency and clean energy innovation
DESSC affiliates or partners in: DESSC affiliates or partners in: – DESC US DESC US – DESC ChinaDESC China– EU (ICT4EE Forum)EU (ICT4EE Forum)– DESC India DESC India – Japan (Green IT Promotion Council) Japan (Green IT Promotion Council)
Established great website as macro story portal:Established great website as macro story portal:– http://www.digitalenergysolutions.org/
17
DESSC-US Partners
*ITI serves as the host organization for DESC
DESC China PartnersDESC China Partners
19
DESC China report “ICT Promoting China Low Carbon Development” Promotion
• Share with government Share with government agencies, MIIT, NDRC, agencies, MIIT, NDRC, AQSIQ and others;AQSIQ and others;
• Promotion campaign with Promotion campaign with publishing on about 270 publishing on about 270 websites;websites;
• Listed Top in Google and Listed Top in Google and Baidu with searching word Baidu with searching word as “ICT” and “Low Carbon”;as “ICT” and “Low Carbon”;
• Good feedback from multi Good feedback from multi channel.channel.
20
UN Sustainable Energy for All
In 2011, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon launched a new In 2011, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon launched a new initiative, initiative, Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All)Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All), which will , which will engage governments, private sector, and civil society to engage governments, private sector, and civil society to achieve 3 major targets by 2030:achieve 3 major targets by 2030:– Achieving universal access to modern energy servicesAchieving universal access to modern energy services– Doubling energy efficiencyDoubling energy efficiency– Doubling energy efficiencyDoubling energy efficiency– Doubling the share of global energy generated from renewable sourcesDoubling the share of global energy generated from renewable sources
SE4All features a heavy emphasis on private sector SE4All features a heavy emphasis on private sector engagement and partnerships across sectors and across engagement and partnerships across sectors and across governments/civil societygovernments/civil society
UN developing ‘best practices’ guidance for different industry UN developing ‘best practices’ guidance for different industry sectorssectors– ICT guidance focuses heavily on implementing Green by ICT and the macro storyICT guidance focuses heavily on implementing Green by ICT and the macro story
Intel Sustainable & Connected Cities Institute
The Opportunity
Create sustainable future city visionCity of London offering test bed accessTwo world-class universities joining forces to lead the initiativePartnership with other fellow travellers
Intel Confidential
The Testbed: London
The World-Class Research Universities: UCL & UCI
The Concept: driving the computing continuumand inventing the city of the future
ISCCI Application Areas
1.1. Compute Continuum & Ubiquitous Information AccessCompute Continuum & Ubiquitous Information Access
2.2. Asset managementAsset managementa.a. Utilities (Energy, Water, Sewage)Utilities (Energy, Water, Sewage)
b.b. TransportTransport
c.c. Services (Police, Fire, Ambulance) Services (Police, Fire, Ambulance)
d.d. EnvironmentEnvironment
3.3. Intelligent Buildings and Urban SpacesIntelligent Buildings and Urban Spaces
4.4. Community WellbeingCommunity Wellbeing
5.5. City Security and Disaster ResponseCity Security and Disaster Response