Steel Industry Update #279

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Steel Industry Update/279 October 2012

Locker Associates, 225 Broadway, Suite 2625 New York NY 10007 Tel: 212-962-2980

Table 1: Selected U.S. Steel Industry Data, August & Year-to-Date, 2012

Month of August Year-to-Date

(000 net tons) 2012 2011 % Chg 2012 2011 % Chg

Raw Steel Production ........................ 8,402 8,199 2.5% 67,395 63,375 6.3%

Capacity Utilization .......................... 76.3 75.7 -- 77.8 74.7 --

Mill Shipments ................................... 8,377 8,305 0.9% 66,405 60,494 9.8%

Exports .............................................. 1,172 1,189 -1.4% 9,534 8,659 10.1%

Total Imports ...................................... 2,674 2,462 8.6% 23,083 19,727 17.0%

Finished Steel Imports ..................... 2,049 1,834 11.7% 17,875 15,021 19.0%

Apparent Steel Supply* ...................... 9,254 8,950 3.4% 74,746 66,856 11.8%

Imports as % of Supply*................... 22.1 20.5 -- 23.9 22.5 --

Average Spot Price** ($/ton) ............... $731 $821 -10.9% $781 $898 -13.1%

Scrap Price# ($/ton) ............................ $393 $436 -9.9% $412 $440 -6.3%

Sources: AISI, SteelBenchmarker *Excl semi-finished imports **Avg price of 3 carbon products #shredded scrap

Table 2: U.S. Spot Prices for Selected Steel Products, October & Year-to-Date, 2012

Month of October Year-to-Date

($ per net ton) 2012 2011 % Chg 2012 2011 % Chg

Hot Rolled Band..………….. $605 $681 -11.2% $666 $773 -13.9%

Cold Rolled Coil…......…….. 705 773 -8.8% 765 869 -11.9%

Coiled Plate................…….. 739 975 -24.2% 866 1,008 -14.1%

Average Spot Price…….... $683 $810 -15.6% $766 $883 -13.3%

OCTG*……………………… $1,914 $2,030 -5.7% $1,985 $1,910 3.9%

#1 Heavy Melt……………... $301 $396 -24.0% $362 $403 -10.0%

Shredded Scrap…………... 330 440 -25.0% 401 440 -8.9%

#1 Busheling………………. 337 485 -30.5% 414 477 -13.2%

Iron Ore ($/dmtu)…………... $99 $177 -44.1% $131 $174 -24.8%

Pig Iron ($/tonne)…………... $481 $492 -2.2% $468 $486 -3.7%

Sources: World Steel Dynamics, Spears Research; SteelOnTheNet.com; IndexMundi.com; *OCTG data is September 2012; Pig Iron data is September 2012, $/dmtu: US$/dry metric tonne unit

Steel Industry Update/279

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Table 3: World Crude Steel Production, September & Year-to-Date, 2012

(000 metric tons) Month of September Year-to-Date

Region 2012 2011 % Chg 2012 2011 % Chg

European Union……. 14,105 14,672 -3.9% 129,625 135,927 -4.6%

Other Europe………. 3,197 3,214 -0.5% 28,722 27,422 4.7%

C.I.S…………………. 9,597 9,081 5.7% 84,732 84,477 0.3%

North America……… 9,680 9,924 -2.5% 92,792 89,277 3.9%

South America……... 3,600 3,900 -7.7% 35,055 36,781 -4.7%

Africa/Middle East..... 2,661 2,617 1.7% 25,554 25,425 0.5%

Asia………………….. 80,285 79,587 0.9% 748,560 737,262 1.5%

Oceania………...…... 511 626 -18.3% 4,378 5,917 -26.0%

Total………………… 123,637 123,622 0.0% 1,149,417 1,142,489 0.6%

Country

China……………....... 57,950 57,600 0.6% 542,340 533,270 1.7%

Japan….…………..… 8,798 8,889 -1.0% 81,321 81,022 0.4%

United States……….. 7,015 7,233 -3.0% 68,154 64,726 5.3%

India(e)………………. 6,155 5,829 5.6% 56,851 55,134 3.1%

Russia….….………… 6,234 5,416 15.1% 53,777 51,538 4.3%

South Korea...…...…. 5,602 5,503 1.8% 52,160 50,637 3.0%

Germany.…….………. 3,563 3,643 -2.2% 32,444 34,128 -4.9%

Turkey……………… 3,052 2,997 1.9% 27,153 25,058 8.4%

Brazil.….……………. 2,848 2,859 -0.4% 26,045 26,842 -3.0%

Ukraine(e).………….. 2,708 2,954 -8.3% 25,124 26,546 -5.4%

All Others………….... 19,712 20,699 -4.8% 184,048 193,588 -4.9%

Source: World Steel Association, 10/12; e=estimate

Source: World Steel Association, 10/12; in million metric tons

Graph 1: World Crude Steel Production, September 2012


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Table 4: Short-range Outlook for Apparent Steel Use (ASU), 2011-2013

Apparent Steel Use (Mt) Growth Rate, %

Region 2011 2012 (f) 2013 (f) 2011 2012 (f) 2013 (f)

European Union (27) 153.1 144.5 148.1 5.9 -5.6 2.4

Other Europe 33.2 34.4 36.0 12.7 3.8 4.5

CIS 54.8 55.2 57.4 13.8 0.8 3.9

NAFTA 121.3 130.4 135.1 9.0 7.5 3.6

Central & S. America 45.7 47.4 50.4 2.6 3.8 6.3

Africa 23.9 25.3 27.3 -3.4 5.8 7.7

Middle East 48.2 49.9 52.8 2.9 3.5 5.9

Asia & Oceania 900.6 922.2 947.9 5.9 2.4 2.8

World 1,380.9 1,409.4 1,454.9 6.2 2.1 3.2

Developed Economies 395.6 394.6 402.1 6.2 -0.3 1.9

Emerging/Dev. Economies 985.2 1014.8 1,052.8 6.3 3.0 3.7

China 623.9 639.5 659.2 6.2 2.5 3.1

BRIC 759.7 779.9 806.0 6.4 2.7 3.3

MENA 59.8 62.7 66.9 -2.0 4.9 6.7

World, excl China 757.0 769.9 795.6 6.3 1.7 3.3

Source: WorldSteel.com, 10/18/12; finished steel products

Source: World Steel Association, 10/12

Graph 2: World Steel Capacity Utilization, September 2012


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Table 5: US Exports of Steel Mill Products, August 2012

Product Aug‘12 Jul’12 % Chg Aug’11 % Chg

Cut-to-length 106,367 97,346 9.3% 104,436 1.8%

Hot-dipped gal sheet/strip 102,020 92,789 9.9% 97,333 4.8%

Heavy structural shapes 94,166 100,952 -6.7% 90,566 4.0%

Hot-rolled steel 74,326 87,130 -14.7% 62,806 18.3%

Cold-rolled steel 60,114 53,966 11.4% 54,155 11.0%

Blooms, billets and slabs 41,315 26,135 58.1% 47,582 -13.2%

Plate in coil 41,293 47,712 -13.5% 85,048 -51.4%

Line pipe 34,714 28,752 20.7% 14,595 137.8%

Oil country goods 33,372 32,852 1.6% 38,221 -12.7%

Total carbon and alloy 995,316 940,967 5.8% 1,014,921 -1.9%

Stainless 67,910 42,766 58.8% 63,748 6.5%

Total Exports 1,063,226 983,734 8.1% 1,078,669 -1.4%

Source: American Metal Market, 10/16/12

Table 6: London Metal Exchange Nonferrous Base Metal Averages, September 2012

Commodity 2011 Cash Avgs Sept. 2012 Avgs YTD Avgs*

Aluminum $1.09 $0.93 $0.92

Copper $4.00 $3.66 $3.62

Lead $1.09 $0.98 $0.92

Nickel $10.38 $7.81 $8.05

Zinc $1.00 $0.91 $0.88

Tin $11.80 $9.39 $9.52

No.1 HMS composite* $411.72 $347.50 $369.67

Source: Export Tax Advisors, 10/16/12; cents/lb except No 1 HMS


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Table 8: Top 20 Largest Scrap Metal Processors, 2011

Company Ferrous Tons Processed (2011) CEO Emp Plants Nations

Eur Metal Recycling (EMR) 11 million Chris Sheppard 3,000 150 U.K., U.S., Germany, The Netherlands

Scholz Group 10.7 million B Scholz, O Scholz 7,500 500

Germany, Austria, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia

Sims Metal Management 10.2 million Daniel Dienst 6,600 250 Europe, North America, Australia, Asia

TSR Recycling 8 million (est.) Ulrich Althoff 1,900 160 Germany, Netherlands, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland

OmniSource Corp/Steel Dyn 5.2 million Russel Rinn 2,000+ 43 United States, Canada

David J. Joseph Co./Nucor 5 million Keith Grass 2,200 69 United States, Canada

Tube City LLC 5 million Joseph Curtin 3,900 20

US, Canada, Belgium, China, France, Indonesia, Mexico, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, S Africa, Taiwan, Trinidad, UAE, U.K., Vietnam

Derichebourg Environment 4.9 million Daniel Derichebourg 3,500 140 France, Germany, U.K., U.S., Mexico, Italy, Spain, Belgium

Stena Metall Group 4 million (est.) Anders Jansson 3,486 250 Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finlas, Poland, Italy

Commercial Metals Co 3.3 million Joseph Alvardo 800 60+ United States, Czech Republic, Poland

Alba Group 2.85 million Dr. Axel Schweitzer 9,000 70+

Germany, Poland, Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Slovenia, Bos & Herz, Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, US, China, Belgium, Slovakia

Gerdau Long Steel Recycling 2.8 million A. Gerdau Johannpeter na 17 United States, Canada

Ferrous Processing & Trading 2.7 million Howard Sherman 700 20 United States, Canada

Triple M Metal 2.5 million (est.) Mike Giampaolo 350 16 Canada, US, Mexico

Kuusakoski Recycling 2.2 million (est.) Petri Halonen 2,950 100+

Finland, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Sweden, Denmark, U.K., United States, China, Taiwan

OneSteel Recycling 2.1 million Geoff Plummer 550 39

Australia, China, New Zealand, United States, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand

China Metal Recycling 2 million Chun Chi Wai 600 10 China, Hong Kong

Ecore Group 2 million Claude Dauphin (mng dir)

1,300 105

France, Romania, Hungary, Germany, Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, China, India

Galloo Group 1.85 million Rik Debaere 850 52 Belgium, France, the Netherlands

Suez-Environment 1.76 million Jean-Louis Chaussade na 645 Europe, the Americas, Asia, Africa, Australia

Source: Recycling Today, 7/12

Steel Industry Update (ISSN 1063-4339) published 12 times/year by Locker Associates, Inc. Copyright © 2012 by Locker Associates, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction in any form forbidden w/o permission. Locker Associates, Inc., 225 Broadway Suite 2625 New York NY 10007.


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Steel Mill Products: US Imports, August & Year-to-Date, 2012

Imports: Country of Origin Month of August Year-to-Date

(000 net tons) 2012 2011 % Chg 2012 2011 % Chg

Canada……………………….. 469 520 -9.8% 4,050 4,082 -0.8%

Mexico………………………… 206 240 -14.2% 1,753 2,106 -16.8%

Other W. Hemisphere……….. 402 443 -9.3% 3,045 2,262 34.6%

European Union……………… 570 323 76.5% 3,836 2,941 30.4%

Other Europe*……………….. 264 169 56.2% 2,883 1,905 51.3%

Asia……………………………. 757 739 2.4% 7,197 5,633 27.8%

Oceania………………………. 0 17 -100.0% 249 671 -62.9%

Africa………………………….. 6 12 -50.0% 70 125 -44.0%

Total 2,674 2,462 8.6% 23,083 19,727 17.0%

Imports: Customs District

Atlantic Coast………………… 265 179 48.0% 2,852 2,302 23.9%

Gulf Coast/Mexican Border… 1,359 1,265 7.4% 11,244 8,717 29.0%

Pacific Coast…………………. 384 344 11.6% 3,872 3,690 4.9%

Gr Lakes/Canadian Border… 654 644 1.6% 4,971 4,870 2.1%

Off Shore……………………… 13 28 -53.6% 144 148 -2.7%

Source: AISI; *includes Russia

Update #279

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20122011

2012 8.5 8.3 8.8 8.6 8.7 8.0 8.1 8.4

2011 7.9 7.4 8.1 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2

J F M A M J J A S O N D

U.S. Raw Steel Production(mil net tons)

U.S. Capacity Utilization

Locker Associates Steel Track: Performance

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2012 2011

2012 78% 81% 80% 81% 79% 75% 73% 76%

2011 73% 75% 75% 74% 73% 76% 75% 76%

J F M A M J J A S O N D

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'07 '08 '09 '10 1q 2q 3q 4q J F M A M J J A S O

U.S. Flat-Rolled Prices

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'07 '08 '09 '10 1q 2q 3q 4q J F M A M J J A S O

U.S. Scrap Prices

#1 Busheling

#1 Heavy Melt

CR Coil

Shredded

Scrap

HR Band

Plate

($ per ton) ($ per ton)

Locker Associates Steel Track: Spot Prices

Rebar


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Steel Industry Update #279