Steel Industry Update #265

8/4/2019 Steel Industry Update #265

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Email: [email protected] | Website: www.lockerassociates.com

Steel Industry Update/265 August 2011Locker Associates, 225 Broadway, Suite 2625 New York NY 10007 Tel: 212-962-2980

Table 1: Selected U.S. Steel Industry Data, June & Year-to-Date, 2011

Month of June Year-to-Date

(000 net tons) 2011 2010 % Chg 2011 2010 % Chg

Raw Steel Production ............... 7,987 7,816 2.2% 47,054 45,038 4.4%

Capacity Utilization ................. 76.2 75.4 -- 74.4 72.1 --

Mill Shipments .......................... 7,639 7,292 4.8% 44,780 42,233 6.0%

Exports ..................................... 1,095 1,048 4.5% 6,408 6,222 3.0%

Total Imports ............................. 2,706 2,035 33.0% 14,645 11,706 25.1%

Finished Steel Imports ............ 2,145 1,563 37.2% 11,092 9,189 20.7%

Apparent Steel Supply*............. 8,689 7,807 11.3% 49,464 45,200 9.4%

Imports as % of Supply* ......... 24.7 20.0 -- 22.4 20.3 --

Average Spot Price** ($/ton)...... $898 $735 22.2% $917 $720 27.3%

Scrap Price# ($/gross ton) .......... $440 $317 38.8% $440 $346 27.3%

Sources: AISI, SteelBenchmarker *Excl semi-finished imports **Avg price of 4 carbon products #shredded

Table 2: U.S. Spot Prices for Selected Steel Products, August & Year-to-Date, 2011

Month of August Year-to-Date

($ per net ton) 2011 2010 % Chg 2011 2010 % Chg

Hot Rolled Band.... 664 581 14.3% 794 631 25.8%

Cold Rolled Coil....... 778 690 12.8% 889 737 20.6%

Coiled Plate.................. 1,021 775 31.7% 1,011 766 32.0%

Average Spot Price.... 821 682 20.4% 898 711 26.2%

OCTG. 1,963 1,823 7.7% 1,859 1,716 8.4%

#1 Heavy Melt... 406 311 30.5% 404 310 30.4%

Scrap Steel-Shredded. 436 345 26.4% 440 341 29.0%#1 Busheling. 481 399 20.6% 475 413 14.9%

Sources: World Steel Dynamics SteelBenchmarker, Spears Research; OCTG data is July, 2011


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Steel Industry Update/265

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Table 3: World Crude Steel Production, July & Year-to-Date, 2011

(000 metric tons) Month of June Year-to-Date

Region 2011 2010 % Chg 2011 2010 % Chg

European Union. 14,579 13,763 5.9% 108,008 103,509 4.3%

Other Europe. 3,068 2,595 18.2% 21,167 17,471 21.2%

C.I.S. 9,450 8,617 9.7% 66,106 62,035 6.6%

North America 10,540 9,486 11.1% 69,858 65,672 6.4%South America... 4,297 3,835 12.0% 28,746 25,071 14.7%

Africa... 1,207 1,303 -7.3% 8,168 9,684 -15.7%

Middle East. 1,587 1,297 22.3% 11,943 10,880 9.8%

Asia.. 82,187 72,738 13.0% 568,329 520,176 9.3%

Oceania...... 561 736 -23.8% 4,569 4,710 -3.0%

Total 127,477 114,372 11.5% 886,893 819,209 8.3%

Country

China....... 59,300 51,348 15.5% 410,364 372,060 10.3%

Japan... 9,108 9,223 -1.2% 63,180 63,800 -1.0%

United States.. 7,457 6,764 10.2% 50,143 47,662 5.2%

India(e). 6,160 5,794 6.3% 41,796 39,788 5.0%Russia(e). 5,950 5,505 8.1% 40,692 38,357 6.1%

South Korea.... 5,659 4,649 21.7% 39,525 33,236 18.9%

Germany.. 3,669 3,472 5.7% 26,865 26,217 2.5%

Brazil.. 3,121 2,885 8.2% 20,948 19,264 8.7%

Turkey.. 2,858 2,396 19.3% 19,262 15,917 21.0%

Ukraine(e).... 2,730 2,476 10.3% 20,432 19,158 6.6%

All Others.... 24,195 22,336 8.3% 174,118 162,908 6.9%

Source: World Steel Association, 8/11; e=estimate

Source: World Steel Association, 8/11; in million metric tons

Graph 1: World Crude Steel Production


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Steel Industry Update(ISSN 1063-4339) published 12 times/year by Locker Associates, Inc. Copyright 2011 by Locker Associates, Inc. Allrights reserved. Reproduction in any form forbidden w/o permission. Locker Associates, Inc., 225 Broadway Suite 2625 New York NY 10007.

Table 4: Worlds Total Metallics for Steelmaking, 2006-2010

(in million tonnes) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 % Chg

Crude Steel Production 1,247 1,347 1,327 1,230 1,412 14.8%

of which Oxygen (BOF) 820 901 890 863 988 14.5%Electric (EAF) 395 416 409 342 405 18.5%

(Share EAF of Crude Steel) in % 31.7 30.9 30.8 27.8 28.7

Pig Iron 880 961 935 914 1,028 12.5%

(Ratio Pig Iron/Crude Steel) in % 70.6 71.4 70.4 74.4 72.8

Steel Scrap 500 540 530 460 530 15.2%

(Ratio Steel Scrap/Crude Steel) in % 40.1 40.1 39.9 37.6 37.5

DRI 60 67 68 64 65 1.6%

(Ratio DRI/Crude Steel) in % 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.6

Total Metallics 1,440 1,568 1,533 1,438 1,623 12.9%

(Ratio Total Metallics/Crude Steel) in % 115.5 116.5 115.4 116.9 114.9

Source: Bureau of Intl Recyclings World Steel Recycling

Report, August, 2011; % Chg is 2010-2009

Graph 2: World Steel Capacity Utilization Ratio

Source: World Steel Association, 8/11; in million metric tons


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Table 5: Worlds Top Steel Scrap Importers, 2006-2010

(in 000 tonnes) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 % Chg

Turkey 15,100 17,141 17,415 15,665 19,194 22.5%

South Korea 5,621 6,887 7,319 7,800 8,091 3.7%

China 5,386 3,395 3,590 13,692 5,848 -57.3%

India 3,359 3,041 4,579 5,336 3,211* -24.6%

Taiwan 4,459 5,418 5,539 3,912 5,364 37.1%

EU 7,294 5,142 4,809 3,270 3,629 9.7%

USA 4,814 3,692 3,571 2,986 3,773 26.4%

Canada 1,476 1,435 1,674 1,408 2,227 58.1%

Malaysia 2,941 3,688 2,293 1,683 2,292 36.2%

Indonesia 1,063 1,260 1,899 1,484 1,642 10.6%

Thailand 1,373 1,805 3,142 1,323 1,282 -3.1%

Source: Bureau of Intl Recyclings World Steel Recycling Report, August, 2011; *Jan-Sep 2010

Table 6: Worlds Top Steel Scrap Exporters, 2006-2010(in 000 tonnes) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 % Chg

USA 13,978 16,642 21,712 22,439 20,557 -8.4%

EU 10,083 10,566 12,799 15,779 18,970 20.2%

Japan 7,654 6,449 5,344 9,398 6,472 -31.1%

Canada 4,000 4,100 4,084 4,792 5,154 7.6%

Russia 9,797 7,855 5,128 1,202 2,390 98.9%

Australia 1,335 1,501 1,708 1,925 1,636 -15.0%

South Africa 555 752 1,271 1,144 1,225 7.0%

Source: World Steel Recycling Report, Bureau of International Recycling, August, 2011

Table 7: US Exports of Ferrous Scrap by Destination, June 2011

(in 000 tonnes) Month Year-to-Date

Country June 11 May 11 April 11 2011 2010 % Chg

Canada 109 148 149 806 717 12.5%

China 336 362 427 2,078 1,544 34.6%

Hong Kong 9 10 13 64 47 35.6%

India 129 140 81 458 493 -7.2%

Japan 11 86 11 163 94 74.2%

Malaysia 116 72 176 586 587 -0.1%Mexico 54 22 30 297 366 -18.8%

South Korea 190 337 445 1,672 1,720 -2.8%

Taiwan 258 323 312 1,597 1,139 40.2%

Thailand 5 75 119 445 246 80.7%

Turkey 739 660 361 2,683 1,696 58.2%

Others 356 346 130 1,317 994 32.4%

Totals 2,313 2,580 2,254 12,166 9,643 26.2%

Source: American Metal Market, 8/16/11


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Table 8: Steel Dynamics Long Product Shipments, 2Q 2011

(in tons) 2Q11 2Q10 % Chg 1H11 11H10 % Chg

Structural and rail 213,368 159,252 34.0% 404,029 314,601 28.4%

Special-bar quality 144,280 128,802 12.0% 303,295 253,861 19.5%

Roanoke 152,906 109,393 39.8% 274,211 218,579 25.5%

Steel of West Virginia 74,882 52,720 42.0% 146,938 106,125 38.5%Total 585,436 450,167 30.0% 1,128,473 893,166 26.3%

Source: AMM 7/20/11

Table 9: Severstal Production of Hot Metal and Crude Steel, 2Q 2011

(in million tonnes) 2Q11 2Q10 % Chg 1H11 11H10 % Chg

North America 0.45 0.43 4% 0.88 0.89 -2%Russian Steel 2.21 2.20 0% 4.42 4.23 4%

Total Hot Metal 2.66 2.64 1% 5.30 5.12 3%

North America 0.92 0.91 1% 1.84 1.82 1%

Russian Steel 2.95 2.74 8% 5.68 5.32 7%

Total Crude Steel 3.87 3.65 6% 7.52 7.14 5%

Source: AMM 7/20/11

Table 10: ArcelorMittal Financial Results, 2Q 2011

Item Q2 '11 Q1 '11 Q2 '10 H1 '11 H1 '10

Sales 25,126 22,184 20,154 47,310 37,582

EBITDA 3,413 2,582 2,809 5,995 4,510

Operating income 2,252 1,431 1,603 3,683 2,180

Income from discontinued operations - 461 127 461 179

Net income 1,535 1,069 1,706 2,604 2,346

Basic EPS (USD) 0.99 0.69 1.13 1.68 1.55

Own iron ore production (Mt) 13.1 11.8 12.8 24.9 23.4

Iron ore shipment (Mt) 7 5.9 6.9 12.9 12.3

Crude steel output (Mt) 24.4 23.5 24.3 47.9 46.8

Steel shipments (Mt) 22.2 22 22.3 44.1 43.3

EBITDA/tonne (USD/t) 154 118 126 136 104

Source: Steel Guru, 7/28/11


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Steel Mill Products: US Imports, June & Year-to-Date

Imports: Country of Origin Month of June Year-to-Date

(000 net tons) 2011 2010 % Chg 2011 2010 % Chg

Canada.. 526 527 -0.2% 3,108 3,521 -11.7%Mexico 211 253 -16.6% 1,615 1,535 5.2%

Other W. Hemisphere.. 268 190 41.1% 1,519 546 178.25

European Union 371 341 8.8% 2,201 2,018 9.1%

Other Europe*.. 368 201 83.1% 1,499 1,047 43.2%

Asia. 848 451 88.0% 4,075 2,641 54.3%

Oceania. 86 56 53.6% 533 349 52.7%

Africa.. 27 14 92.9% 96 49 95.9%

Total 2,705 2,035 32.9% 14,645 11,706 25.1%

Imports: Customs District

Atlantic Coast 312 231 35.1% 1,874 1,631 14.9%

Gulf Coast/Mexican Border 1,235 646 91.2% 6,238 3,776 65.2%

Pacific Coast. 471 487 -3.3% 2,831 2,201 28.6%

Gr Lakes/Canadian Border. 679 662 2.6% 3,597 3,994 -9.9%

Off Shore 8 8 0.0% 105 104 1.0%

Source: AISI; *includes Russia

Update #265

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'06 '07 '08 '09 1q 2q J A S O N D J F M A M J J A

U.S. Flat-Rolled Prices

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'07 '08 '09 1q 2q J A S O N D J F M A M J J A

U.S. Scrap Prices

#1 Busheling

#1 Heavy Melt

CR Coil

Shredded Scrap

HR Band

Plate

($ per ton) ($ per ton)

Locker Associates Steel Track: Spot Prices

Rebar

3.0

4.0

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20112010

2011 7.9 7.4 8.1 7.8 7.9 8.0

2010 6.9 6.9 7.8 7.7 8.0 7.8

J F M A M J J A S O N D

U.S. Raw Steel Production(mil net tons)

U.S. Capacity Utilization

Locker Associates Steel Track: Performance

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2011 2010

2011 73% 75% 75% 74% 73% 76%

2010 64% 71% 73% 74% 75% 75%

J F M A M J J A S O N D


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Steel Industry Update #265