Steel Industry Update #264

8/4/2019 Steel Industry Update #264

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Email: [email protected] | Website: www.lockerassociates.com

Steel Industry Update/264 July 2011Locker Associates, 225 Broadway, Suite 2625 New York NY 10007 Tel: 212-962-2980

Table 1: Selected U.S. Steel Industry Data, May & Year-to-Date, 2011

Month of May Year-to-Date

(000 net tons) 2011 2010 % Chg 2011 2010 % Chg

Raw Steel Production ............... 7,872 8,007 -1.7% 39,067 37,267 4.8%

Capacity Utilization ................. 72.7 74.8 -- 74.1 71.4 --

Mill Shipments .......................... 7,380 7,345 0.5% 37,141 34,941 6.3%

Exports ..................................... 1,144 1,055 8.4% 5,313 5,174 2.7%

Total Imports............................. 2,964 2,293 29.3% 11,940 9,671 23.5%

Finished Steel Imports ............ 2,011 1,789 12.4% 8,947 7,625 17.3%

Apparent Steel Supply*............. 8,247 8,079 2.1% 40,774 37,392 9.0%

Imports as % of Supply* ......... 24.4 22.1 -- 21.9 20.4 --

Average Spot Price** ($/ton)...... $939 $770 22.0% $923 $717 28.7%

Scrap Price# ($/gross ton) .......... $427 $343 24.5% $440 $351 25.2%

Sources: AISI, SteelBenchmarker *Excl semi-finished imports **Avg price of 4 carbon products #shredded scrap

Table 2: U.S. Spot Prices for Selected Steel Products, July & Year-to-Date, 2011

Month of July Year-to-Date

($ per net ton) 2011 2010 % Chg 2011 2010 % Chg

Hot Rolled Band.... 735 578 27.2% 812 638 27.3%

Cold Rolled Coil....... 826 691 19.5% 905 744 21.6%

Coiled Plate.................. 1,033 795 29.9% 1,010 765 32.0%

Average Spot Price.... $865 $688 25.7% $909 $716 27.0%

#1 Heavy Melt... 401 279 43.7% 403 309 30.3%

Shredded... 443 309 43.4% 440 340 29.3%

#1 Busheling. 483 394 22.6% 474 415 14.2%Sources: World Steel Dynamics SteelBenchmarker, July 2011


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Steel Industry Update/264

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Table 3: World Crude Steel Production, May & Year-to-Date, 2011

(000 metric tons) Month of May Year-to-Date

Region 2011 2010 % Chg 2011 2010 % Chg

European Union. 16,317 16,534 -1.3% 77,609 74,645 4.0%

Other Europe. 3,119 2,742 13.7% 14,987 12,084 24.0%

C.I.S. 9,635 9,553 0.9% 47,278 44,806 5.5%North America 10,078 9,918 1.6% 49,047 46,726 5.0%

South America... 4,495 3,664 22.7% 20,363 17,519 16.2%

Africa... 1,178 1,470 -19.9% 5,755 7,016 -18.0%

Middle East. 1,711 1,650 3.7% 8,694 8,007 8.6%

Asia.. 82,694 78,421 5.4% 402,421 372,936 7.9%

Oceania...... 638 687 -7.1% 3,437 3,286 4.6%

Total 129,865 124,639 4.2% 629,591 587,026 7.3%

Country

China....... 60,245 55,877 7.8% 290,345 267,491 8.5%

Japan... 9,047 9,724 -7.0% 45,184 45,221 -0.1%

United States.. 7,273 7,264 0.1% 35,572 33,808 5.2%India(e). 5,876 5,860 0.3% 29,610 28,440 4.1%

Russia(e). 5,856 5,192 12.8% 28,201 23,828 18.4%

South Korea.... 5,765 5,937 -2.9% 28,837 27,447 5.1%

Germany.. 4,116 4,073 1.1% 19,317 18,888 2.3%

Ukraine(e).... 3,165 2,906 8.9% 15,023 14,168 6.0%

Brazil (e). 3,276 2,856 14.7% 14,753 13,530 9.0%

Turkey.. 2,850 2,536 12.4% 13,543 11,006 23.0%

All Others.... 22,396 22,414 -0.1% 109,206 103,199 5.8%

Source: World Steel Association, 7/11; e=estimate

Graph 1: World Crude Steel Production

Source: World Steel Association, 7/11; in million metric tons


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Table 4: Global Steel Output, 2010 Estimate & 2011 Forecast

Region 2010e 2011f % ChgEU 27 172.7 180.0 4.2%

Other Europe 33.6 38.5 14.6%

CIS 108.2 113.5 4.9%

NAFTA 111.4 117.9 5.8%

South America 43.9 51.1 16.6%

Africa 16.6 14.5 -12.8%

Middle East 20.6 22.8 10.8%

MEPS(e) - China 672.0 728.0 8.3%

China 626.7 - -

Japan 109.6 110.0 0.4%

Other Asia 166.3 183.4 10.3%Oceania 8.1 8.3 1.9%

MEPS Total 1,463.0 1,568.0 7.2%

Total 1,417.7* 1,568.0 10.6%

Source: MEPS, 7/13/11; e=estimate, f=forecast

Steel Industry Update(ISSN 1063-4339) published 12 times/year by Locker Associates, Inc. Copyright 2011 by Locker Associates, Inc. Allrights reserved. Reproduction in any form forbidden w/o permission. Locker Associates, Inc., 225 Broadway Suite 2625 New York NY 10007.

Source: World Steel Association, 7/11

Graph 2: World Steel Capacity Utilization Ratio


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Table 5: US Steel Industry Imports, YTD 2011

(in mil net tons) YTD 2011 YTD 2010 % Chg

Japan 838 584 43.5%

EU 1,733 1,677 3.3%

Canada 2,553 2,993 -14.7%

Brazil 1,111 269 313.0%

Korea 1,165 736 58.2%

Mexico 1,402 1,282 9.4%

Russia 493 549 -10.2%

China 392 295 32.9%

Australia 386 258 49.6%

South Africa 61 33 85.8%

Indonesia 24 8 200.0%

Turkey 341 255 33.9%

Ukraine 200 21 854.0%

India 317 331 -4.1%

Others 650 380 71.1%Total 11,667 9,671 20.6%

Source: AIIS, 6/26/11; Year-to-Date is May, 2011

Table 6: US Steel Industry Exports, YTD 2011

(in tonnes) YTD 2011 YTD 2010 % Chg

Canada 2,211,529 2,445,811 -9.6%

Mexico 978,373 811,987 20.5%

EU 182,636 131,379 39.0%

Russia 2,006 4,369 -54.1%

Turkey 14,414 9,081 58.7%Brazil 43,945 46,550 -5.6%

Venezuela 18,097 14,570 24.2%

Ecuador 6,841 12,570 -45.6%

Argentina 5,244 6,856 -23.5%

Colombia 27,255 36,323 -25.0%

Trinidad & Tobago 6,613 1,941 240.7%

Peru 38,413 34,485 11.4%

Chile 12,390 9,567 29.5%

Dominican Republic 65,394 150,572 -56.6%

Panama 39,903 19,799 101.5%

Other W. Hemisphere 82,223 56,576 45.3%

Africa 42,612 19,288 120.9%

Australia 12,060 12,447 -3.1%

China 64,477 38,935 65.6%

Korea 25,261 19,789 27.7%

India 49,293 65,046 -24.2%

Others 240,139 171,159 40.3%

Source: AIIS, 6/26/11; Year-to-Date is May, 2011


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Table 7:US Exports of Ferrous Scrap by Destination, YTD 2011

2011 Year-to-Date

(in 000 tonnes) May April March 2011 2010 % Chg

Canada 148 149 159 697 596 17.0%China 362 427 364 1,743 1,202 45.0%

Hong Kong 10 13 17 55 39 40.5%

India 140 81 49 328 426 -23.0%

Japan 86 11 43 152 83 83.3%

Malaysia 72 176 118 470 405 15.9%

Mexico 22 30 61 244 296 -17.8%

South Korea 337 445 281 1,482 1,408 5.2%

Taiwan 323 312 236 1,339 903 48.3%

Thailand 75 119 109 439 239 83.8%

Turkey 660 361 318 1,944 1,528 27.2%

Others 346 130 135 961 813 18.3%

Totals 2,580 2,254 1,889 9,854 7,939 24.1%

Source: American Metal Market, 7/15/11

Table 8: US Exports of Ferrous Scrap by Grade, YTD 2011

2011 Year-to-Date

(in 000 tonnes) May April March 2011 2010 % ChgAlloys 97 108 107 464 373 24.3%

Borings 9 14 13 53 26 103.1%

Cast Iron 47 48 45 220 216 1.6%No. 1 Bundles 45 55 38 206 152 35.5%

No. 2 Bundles 2 3 2 8 13 -33.3%

No. 1 Heavy 880 761 555 3,141 2,060 52.5%

No. 2 Heavy 115 115 70 402 384 4.7%

Plate/Structural 77 130 110 438 319 37.5%

Shavings 16 21 19 82 80 3.2%

Shredded 939 602 669 3,314 2,864 15.7%

Stainless 59 45 54 245 342 -28.4%

Tinned 10 11 7 41 40 0.7%

Unspecified 285 340 198 1,241 1,071 15.9%

Totals 2,580 2,254 1,889 9,854 7,939 24.1%

Source: American Metal Market, 7/15/11


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Table 9: World Trade in Ferrous Scrap, 2009 & 2010

Exports Imports

Country 2009 2010 2009 2010

Austria 1.7 1.0 1.7 1.0

Belgium-Luxembourg 3.4 3.8 5.5 7.0

Bulgaria 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.7

Czech Republic 1.4 1.8 0.4 0.6Germany 7.3 9.2 3.9 5.6

Finland 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.8

France 5.1 6.7 2.4 2.8

Greece 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.0

Italy 0.3 0.4 3.3 4.8

Netherlands 4.3 5.1 1.9 2.1

Poland 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.5

Slovak Republic 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3

Spain 0.3 0.3 4.6 5.7

Sweden 1.4 1.3 0.2 0.5

United Kingdom 6.0 7.5 0.2 2.0Other EU 6.3 7.9 1.3 4.8

European Union (27) 39.6 47.9 28.0 40.3

Turkey 0.1 0.1 15.7 19.2

Others 1.4 2.4 0.8 1.7

Other Europe 1.5 2.5 16.4 20.9

Belarus 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.6

Kazakhstan 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.2

Russia 1.2 2.4 0.0 1.1

Ukraine 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.3

Other CIS 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4

CIS 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4Canada 4.8 5.2 1.4 4.0

Mexico 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.1

United States 22.4 20.6 3.0 10.5

NAFTA 27.9 26.7 5.3 15.6

Brazil 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2

Other Central & S. America 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.5

Central & South America 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.7

South Africa 1.1 1.2 0.0 0.9

Other Africa 2.0 2.7 1.6 3.8

Africa 3.2 3.9 1.6 4.7

Middle East 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0

China 0.0 0.4 13.7 5.9

Japan 9.4 6.5 0.2 0.5

South Korea 0.5 0.5 7.8 8.1

Taiwan, China 0.2 0.1 3.9 5.4

Other Asia 1.4 1.8 4.7 4.1

Asia 11.5 9.2 30.3 24.0

Australia & New Zealand 2.2 2.0 0.0 1.3

World 87.8 94.8 82.5 107.9

Source: Worldsteel Associations World Steel in Figures 2011; in million metric tons


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Table 10: World Apparent Steel Use, 2004-2010

Country 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Austria 3.3 3.5 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.2 3.7

Belgium-Luxembourg 4.8 4.6 5.5 5.6 5.4 3.8 4.5

Czech Republic 5.2 5.2 6.0 6.6 6.5 4.5 5.5

France 16.7 14.8 16.2 16.6 15.3 10.9 12.8

Germany 36.3 35.3 39.2 42.7 42.4 28.2 36.3Italy 33.2 31.6 36.4 35.9 33.3 20.1 25.5

Netherlands 3.5 3.6 3.5 4.1 4.3 2.9 3.3

Poland 8.5 8.4 10.7 12.1 11.5 8.2 9.7

Romania 3.3 3.5 4.2 5.1 4.8 2.8 2.9

Spain 21.1 20.9 23.6 24.5 18.0 11.9 13.1

Sweden 4.0 4.1 4.5 4.9 4.3 2.9 4.1

United Kingdom 13.2 11.4 12.9 12.8 11.8 7.0 8.8

Other EU (27) 19.5 18.6 21.7 23.0 20.9 13.1 14.6

European Union (27) 172.4 165.5 188.4 198.0 182.6 119.5 144.8

Turkey 15.2 18.4 21.2 23.8 21.5 18.0 23.6

Others 6.2 6.4 7.5 7.9 7.4 5.9 6.0Other Europe 21.4 24.8 28.7 31.6 28.9 23.9 29.6

Russia 26.3 29.3 34.9 40.4 35.4 24.9 35.7

Ukraine 5.8 5.6 6.6 8.1 6.9 4.0 5.5

Other CIS 6.1 6.7 7.3 7.9 7.8 7.2 7.3

CIS 38.1 41.5 48.9 56.3 50.0 36.1 48.5

Canada 17.4 16.8 18.1 15.5 14.7 9.5 14.1

Mexico 16.0 15.3 17.1 17.1 16.4 14.2 16.1

United States 117.4 105.4 119.6 108.0 98.4 59.2 80.1

NAFTA 150.8 137.5 154.9 140.6 129.5 82.9 110.3

Argentina 3.6 3.7 4.5 4.6 4.8 3.2 4.6

Brazil 18.3 16.8 18.5 22.1 24.0 18.6 26.6

Venezuela 2.4 2.4 3.2 3.6 3.4 2.7 2.3

Others 9.0 9.3 10.9 11.0 11.9 9.1 12.3

Central and S America 33.3 32.3 37.2 41.3 44.2 33.6 45.8

Egypt 3.8 5.0 4.6 5.5 6.5 9.4 8.6

South Africa 4.9 4.7 6.0 6.0 6.1 4.5 5.0

Other Africa 8.9 10.0 10.0 10.5 11.6 13.0 12.3

Africa 17.7 19.6 20.6 22.0 24.3 26.8 25.9

Iran 14.5 15.6 14.6 19.1 14.9 17.2 17.1

Other Middle East 17.6 20.3 23.0 25.1 30.8 25.1 28.1

Middle East 32.1 35.9 37.7 44.2 45.7 42.2 45.3

China 275.8 347.5 377.7 422.5 434.7 548.1 576.0

India 35.3 39.9 45.6 51.5 51.4 55.3 60.6

Japan 76.8 76.7 79.0 81.2 77.9 52.8 63.8

South Korea 47.2 47.1 50.2 55.2 58.6 45.4 52.4

Taiwan, China 22.1 19.9 19.8 18.1 16.9 11.3 17.8

Other Asia 45.8 48.4 45.4 52.8 52.7 50.3 55.6

Asia 503.0 579.6 617.6 681.3 692.2 763.2 826.1

Australia & New Zealand 8.0 7.9 7.9 8.4 8.5 6.1 7.5

World 976.7 1,044.7 1,141.9 1,223.7 1,205.9 1,134.2 1,283.6

Source: Worldsteel Associations World Steel in Figures 2011; in million metric tons of finished steel products


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Source: Midrex World Direct Reduction Statistics, 2010

Source: Midrex World Direct Reduction Statistics, 2010


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Steel Mill Products: US Imports, May & Year-to-Date

Imports: Country of Origin Month of May Year-to-Date

(000 net tons) 2011 2010 % Chg 2011 2010 % Chg

Canada.. 591 591 0.0% 2,582 2,993 -13.7%

Mexico 286 233 22.7% 1,404 1,282 9.5%

Other W. Hemisphere.. 406 107 279.4% 1,251 356 251.4%

European Union 483 430 12.3% 1,830 1,677 9.1%

Other Europe*.. 369 253 45.8% 1,131 846 33.7%

Asia. 720 603 19.4% 3,227 2,190 47.4%

Oceania. 98 63 55.6% 447 292 53.1%

Africa.. 11 14 -21.4% 69 34 102.9%Total 2,964 2,294 29.2% 11,940 9,671 23.5%

Imports: Customs District

Atlantic Coast 456 386 18.1% 1,562 1,400 11.6%

Gulf Coast/Mexican Border 1,167 802 45.5% 5,003 3,130 59.8%

Pacific Coast. 589 368 60.1% 2,360 1,714 37.7%

Gr Lakes/Canadian Border. 726 727 -0.1% 2,918 3,332 -12.4%

Off Shore 25 10 150.0% 97 95 2.1%

Source: AISI; *includes Russia

Update #264

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'06 '07 '08 '09 1q 2q J A S O N D J F M A M J J

U.S. Flat-Rolled Prices

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'07 '08 '09 1q 2q J A S O N D J F M A M J J

U.S. Scrap Prices

#1 Busheling

#1 Heavy Melt

CR Coil

Shredded Scrap

HR Band

Plate

($ per ton) ($ per ton)

Locker Associates Steel Track: Spot Prices

Rebar

3.0

4.0

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2011 7. 9 7.4 8.1 7.8 7. 9

20106.9 6.9 7.8 7.7 8

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U.S. Raw Steel Production(mil net tons)

U.S. Capacity UtilizationLocker Associates Steel Track: Performance

30%

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2011 2010

2011 73% 75%75%74% 73%

2010 64% 71%73%74% 75%

J F M A M J J A S O N D


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Steel Industry Update #264