Status of HyMeX

http://www.hymex.org/

THORPEX meetingGenève

21-22 September 2011

Véronique DucrocqCNRM-GAME

Météo-France & CNRSveronique.ducrocq@meteo.fr

to improve our understanding of the water cycle, with emphases on the predictability and evolution of intense events

by monitoring and modelling: the Mediterranean coupled system (atmosphere-land-ocean), its variability (from the event scale, to the seasonal and interannual scales) and characteristics over one decade (2010-2020) in the context of global change

to evaluate the societal and economical vulnerability to extreme events and the adaptation capacity.

HyMeX objectivesScience topics

The five science Topics

EOP: Enhanced existing observatories and operational observing systems in the target areas of high-impact events:

budgets and process studies(hydrological field experiment)

LOP : Current operational observing system and observatories over the

whole Mediterranean basin: budgets

(data access for research)

SOP: Special observing periods of high-impact events in selected regions of the EOP target areas

(aircraft, R/V, balloons,…): process studies(research atmospheric/ocean field campaigns)

A « Nested » strategy:

Observation strategy

International Science Plan published in 2010, first draft of the Implementation Plan

discussed at the 5th HyMeX Workshop in May 2011, new version for end of 2011.

HyMeX data base is set-up and be progressively filled with LOP, EOP, SOP observations and models

Model-observation synergy

LOP/EOP observations

with aims to:

quantify and reduce uncertainties of the future climate projections,

advance the modeling of the continental hydrological cycle and the monitoring of water resources and droughts

improve the prediction capabilities of high-impact events by developping convective-scale ensemble hydrometeorological forecasting systems and mesoscale data assimilation

Process Understanding

Improvement of model parameterizations

SOP/EOP field campaigns

Observations Models

Convection-permitting ensemble hydrometeorological prediction systems

Regional Earth System models

Model Validation

Mesoscale (incl. land surface) data assimilation Data assimilation in

cloud/precipitation

Seasonal and interannual variability

1960 2010 2020 210020011989

LOP/EOP/SOP2012-2013

IPCC-AR5 scenario(including decadal forecast)

Hindcast: ERAInterim

Hindcast: ERA40

The climate models used for hindcast and scenarios will be run with the same set-up for the LOP/EOP/SOP periods

processunderstanding variability

LOP/EOP/SOP Hindcast 1960-2010

model improvement

scenarios

All temporal scales

21st century

Example of the obs-model synergy: Regional Climate Modelling

HyMeX TTM3 – coord: P. Ruti & S. Somot

WCRP/MED-CORDEX

done

ENEA

MPI

CNRM

LMD

Univ. Belgrade

MORCE-MED

UCLM/UPM

COSMO-CLM (GUF)

INSTM

IC3

Atmosphere

RCM

Same ARCM as in RCSM (25-50km)

RegCM, ALADIN, WRF, ETA, LMD,

PROMES, REMO, COSMO-CLM

+ other ARCM (50 km)TAU, IIBR, Univ. Istanbul (RegCM)

+ very high-resolution ARCM (10km)

WRF, ALADIN, RegCM, COSMO-CLM (KIT)

Regional Climate System Model

atm-ocean-land-riv

er

atm-ocean-land

in development

MED-CORDEX/HyMeX Partners and models

Field campaigns in NW-Med

SOP1: Heavy precipitation and flash-flooding

SOP1: Sep.2012- Nov.2012

EOP+: Sep.2012- Nov.2013

SOP2: Intense air-sea exchanges (severe winds, dense water formation)

SOP2: Feb-March 2013

time frequency of soundings and AMDAR within sensitive areas (DTS, Eucos framework)

SOP1 - Upstream atmospheric conditions

Two island sites

for monitoring upstream conditions

CNES Boundary layer balloons over the Sea, launched from Menorca air-mer

Aircraft over the Sea

SAFIRE ATR-42 SAFIRE Falcon 20

DLR Falcon 20 ?

DropsondesWV Lidar

MiniVIEcube70 Surface stations

(Univ. Vienna)

Doppler wind LidarsSodar, MWR,

Cloud and K-band radar,Disdrometer, energy

balance,and turbulence stations,

Scintillometer,RS systems

(KIT)

WV DIAL, Raman Lidar, X-band radar, Disdrometer

(Univ. Honeheim)

SOP1 - Upstream atmospheric conditions

The Corsica site

Wind profilers (VHF, UHF)Lightning sensors

(CNRS)

The Balearic site

Wind profilers (VHF, UFH)

WV and aerosol lidars

Boundary layer pressurized balloons

(CNRS, CNES, Météo-France, AEMET)

SOP1-Air-sea fluxes and ocean heat

content

Drifters including:SVP driftersMarisondesArgo floats

Ocean mixed layer

measurements

Ship of Opportunity carrying the SEOS (meteo) Box + GPS receiver +

thermosalinometer

KIT DO128

Turbulent air-sea fluxes

Short R/V cruises

Enhancement of the surface buoys and moorings with additional

sensors (Radiation, raingauge,…)

Glider

Aircraft flights with microphysics and aerosol payloads to monitor cloud and microphysics processes above sites well equiped with operational observation networks and with instrumented watersheds

Radar network

ATR-42 (1)

F20 (1)

ATR-42 (2)

F20 (2)Flight tracks

Entella River catchment

SOP1 - Precipitating systems and Flash-flood

Microphysics, electricity and dynamics of the precipitating systems through enhancement with research instruments of some of the sites (CV, CO, CI, BA)

SOP1 - Precipitating systems and Flash-flood

Examples over the CI site

Microphysics, electricity and dynamics of the precipitating systems through enhancement with research instruments of some of the sites (CV, CO, CI, BA)

Additional research radars, lightning Mapping Array, raingage, discharge

measurements

Examples over the CV site

Instrumented cross-coastal-barrier transect (modification of the marine moist low-level flow and

cloud initiation/growth along the transect)

high-res GPS network for 3D

WV field

AMF-2

SOP1 - Precipitating systems and Flash-flood

Preparation of the SOP modelling systems

Preparation of the HyMeX operation center (HOC) co-located with the aircraft base (Montpellier, France), together with virtual operation centers (Spain, Corsica, Italie): webconference, web visualisation platform and forecaster visualisation platform (synergie), involvement of AEMET and Météo-France forecasters for morning briefing, supply of operational and research real-time modelling products

Available deterministic models.

Available ensemble forecasts.

Preparation of dedicated real-time operating mesoscale deterministicmodels over the Mediterranean during the field campaigns: example of AROME-WMED

Incl. Real Time assimilation of EOP-SOP specific observation Datasets (Drifting balloons,…)More European radar data assimilated (work on radar data format for assimilation purposes), non-GTS hourly surface observations,..

AROME-WMED (2.5 km)

48h forecast, from 00 UTC Convection permitting ensemble prediction systems :

Design, implementation and validation of convective-scale EPS is an important objectives of HyMeX

Coupling of these atmospheric ensemble systems with hydrological models to issue hydrological ensemble predictions is an other important objectives

HyMeX SOP1 2012 serves as a testbed for these new EPSLink with TIGGE (report on TIGGE workshops)

Link with DAOS (report on DAOS workshops)

Preparation of the SOP modelling systems

Streamflow simulated by the hydrological model ISBA-TOPMODEL for a flash-flood case over Southern France watersheds

The model is driven by hourly precipitation forecast from an ensemble simulation based on the AROME

model (resolution:2.5 km)

- Global ARPEGE EPS used as LBC combined with ensemble data assimilation - Vié et al (2010)

The model is driven by hourly precipitation fields derived from the AROME NWP operational suite

- A object-oriented perturbation method is applied to the determinist QPF – Vincendon et al (2011)

ensemble spread between q 0.25 and q 0.75

ensemble median

AROME determinist run

ensemble members observations

Streamflow simulated using: Legend:

Preparation of the SOP modelling systems

Running of fully coupled (atmosphere/ocean/wave) COAMPS ensemble system in near real time with high-resolution nests over NW Med (NRL, C. Bishop), in addition to operational products (MERCATOR, MyOcean).

To provide adaptative sampling guidance for oceanic gliders

HyMeX offers region and observations to build and test ensemble DA scheme with option for fully coupled DA.

MISTRAL wind region is a laboratory for air/sea/wave coupling Example of the characterisation of the

water column carried out with 9 gliders

Preparation of the SOP modelling systems

International Partnership

CNRS/INSUMétéo-France

CNESINRA, BRGMCEMAGREF

IGN,IFSTTAR

CNRCINFAIENEAOGSINGV

ARPACIMA

KIT, DLR, PIKUniv. Hohenheim

Univ. WageningenTU Delft,KNMI

AEMET, IMEDEAMeteocat,UCLM,ICM

Univ. Barcelona, Balearic islands

EUMETNET/EUCOS

NOAHCMR

Univ. Athens

IMSUniv.

Jerusalem, Tel Aviv

MHS, Univ. Zadar

MHS

IMS

Univ. Vienna, ZAMG

EPFL, ETH

NOCUniv. Bristol

DMNUniv. Rabat

INSTM

NOAANRL

NASANCARUniv.

Connecticut, Colorado

McGillEnv. Canada

ONM,CRAAG,INCT

COC

CIESM

An international and multidisciplinary partnership (academic and operational communities, ocean-atmosphere-hydrology-social and economical sciences communities)

GPM

Thanks for your attention