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3 November 2016
Nico Hawkins
General Manager
Status of food
security in Africa
SAGIS the Organisation
Marketing of Agri. Products Act, 1996 – end to single channelmarketing & control boards.
Importance of reliable info for the functioning of a free market wasrealised.
SAGIS is a Non Profit Company - registered in November 1997
Four industries created SAGIS (re-presented by their various Trusts):• The Maize Trust
• Oil and Protein seeds Development Trust
• Sorghum Trust
• Winter Cereal Trust
SAGIS is also funded by these trusts
Provide actual data info on 9 grains & oilseeds produced in SA aswell as maize and wheaten products.
Who is SAGIS?
SAGIS’s main objective (function) is:
The collation, processing, analysing and timeous distribution to all
role-players, of reliable and useful market information related to
grain and oilseeds.
SAGIS the Organisation
SAGIS’ mandate
Government agreed to certain Statutory Measures w.r.t.
information which compelled market participants (co-
workers) e.g. storers, processors, importers & exporters
to register & submit information to SAGIS.
Non adherence is an offence & can lead to prosecution.
SAGIS fulfil its statutory obligations & liaises with certain
Government departments to obtain market information
BUT it operates independently from Government as far
as its main goals are concerned.
Statutory Measures
Pretoria, 30 April 2016
SAGIS the Organisation
No necessity to revert to any legal action in 19 years
of SAGIS’ existence!
No incentives to co-workers. They do get reliable and
cost free information and confidentiality.
Importance of information
Free market
Business decisions
Policy decisions
Life cycle of information
Not SAGIS
Partly SAGIS
SAGIS
Intelligence
Know-how, understanding, experience,
insight and contextualized info.
Information
Contextualized, categorized, calculated and condensed data
DataFacts and figures which relay something
specific, but which are not organized in any way
SAGIS’ role in food security
Availability
AffordabilitySafety
3 most important factors:
SAGIS’ role in food security
Availability
SA is privileged to have ample information available.
Following organisations assist in supplying information on
the availability of food in SA:
SAGIS – SA Grain Information Service
CEC – Crop Estimates Committee
S&DEC – Supply & Demand Estimates Committee
Outputs from SAGIS
Availability: Data – Raw materials (Non-government)
Weekly• Maize & Wheat imports & exports
• Producer deliveries
Week BOTSWANA LESOTHO MOZAMBIQUE NAMIBIA SWAZILAND ZIMBABWE Total/Totaal Total/Totaal
30 Apr - 06 May/Mei 2016 1 369 0 796 38 592 4 391 7 186 7 186
07 May/Mei - 13 May/Mei 2016 2 008 839 814 1 013 361 5 487 10 522 17 708
14 May/Mei - 20 May/Mei 2016 3 226 1 678 1 378 1 477 0 4 780 12 539 30 247
21 May/Mei - 27 May/Mei 2016 1 821 1 785 1 434 1 450 1 388 4 996 12 874 43 121
28 May/Mei - 03 Jun 2016 3 297 545 2 375 1 445 1 617 3 554 12 833 55 954
04 Jun - 10 Jun 2016 4 914 580 290 833 574 2 595 9 786 65 740
11 Jun - 17 Jun 2016 5 002 242 0 805 0 1 468 7 517 73 257
18 Jun - 24 Jun 2016 5 567 199 69 286 0 4 018 10 139 83 396
25 Jun - 01 Jul 2016 2 451 2 835 0 354 0 3 201 8 841 92 237
Total 29 655 8 703 7 156 7 701 4 532 34 490 92 237
WHITE MAIZE: RSA EXPORTS - 2016/17 SEASON
RSA EXPORTS / RSA UITVOERE
Outputs from SAGIS
Availability:Data – Raw materials
Monthly• Data on Whole grain
& Oilseeds, Imports &
exports, Producer
deliveries per
province, Grain
transport component
TOTAL MAIZE: SUPPLY AND DEMAND TABLE BASED ON SAGIS' INFO (TON)
Current 10 Year
Season average
Mar - May
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 2006/7-2015/16
*** ***
3
CEC (Crop Estimate) 11 810 600 14 250 000 9 955 000 7 160 925 10 980 426
CEC (Retention) 457 810 550 000 0 0 420 181
SUPPLY
Opening stock (1 Mar) 2 692 393 1 622 220 3 327 155 2 862 246 2 980 077
Prod deliveries 11 336 637 13 449 484 9 597 030 1 839 137 10 503 415
Imports 0 0 1 322 952 894 767 401 695
Surplus 53 469 101 113 40 050 42 685 52 063
Total Supply 14 082 499 15 586 049 14 287 187 5 638 835 13 978 574
DEMAND
Processed 9 395 207 9 719 199 10 254 170 2 500 245 8 880 058
-human 4 658 965 4 717 686 4 760 700 1 172 209 4 415 435
-animal/industrial 4 681 852 4 955 055 5 461 563 1 321 145 4 401 347
-gristing 54 390 46 458 31 907 6 891 63 276
-bio-fuel 0 0 0 0 0
Withdrawn by producers 155 467 120 813 85 858 23 570 196 114
Released to end-consumers 337 993 199 085 191 335 48 159 325 141
Net receipts(-)/disp(+) -683 28 636 16 628 6 555 35 558
Deficit 0 0 0 0 0
Total Exports 2 572 295 2 191 161 876 950 239 646 1 728 741
Products 187 258 191 357 189 056 44 375 127 167
African Countries 130 608 133 077 133 388 32 468 85 807
Other Countries 56 650 58 280 55 668 11 907 41 360
Whole maize 2 385 037 1 999 804 687 894 195 271 1 601 574
Border Posts 891 191 733 160 680 019 193 132 722 337
Harbours 1 493 846 1 266 644 7 875 2 139 879 237
Total Demand 12 460 279 12 258 894 11 424 941 2 818 175 11 165 611
Ending Stock (28 Feb) 1 622 220 3 327 155 2 862 246 2 820 660 2 812 962
- processed p/month 782 934 809 933 854 514 833 415 741 337
- months' stock 2.1 4.1 3.3 3.4 4
White Maize: Production & Producer DeliveriesCEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries (2016/17 Progr. 1 May – 31 Aug ‘16)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
0
1 000 000
2 000 000
3 000 000
4 000 000
5 000 000
6 000 000
7 000 000
8 000 000
9 000 000
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Progr.
16/17Proj.
WHITE MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATE, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIES
CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) S&DEC
Ton Yield
White Maize: Consumption
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
4 000 000
4 500 000
5 000 000
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Progr.
16/17Proj.
WHITE MAIZE: RSA CONSUMPTION
Human Animal/industrial S&DEC
Ton
(2016/17 Progr. 1 May – 31 Aug ‘16)
White Maize: Imports & Exports (2016/17 Progr. 1 May – 31 Aug ‘16)
Raw material
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17Progr.
16/17Proj.
WHITE MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS
Imports Exports S&DEC
Ton
Wheat: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16Progr.
16/17Proj.
WHEAT: CEC ESTIMATE vs. SAGIS DELIVERIES
CEC (Crop Est.) Prod deliveries (SAGIS) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) S&DEC
Ton Yield
Week.
(Progr. 1 Oct ‘15 – 30 Sep ‘16)
Outputs from SAGIS
Availability:Data – Products
Products (Maize & Wheaten)
• Monthly imports & exports,
manufactured and pan
baked bread
White Maize ProductsProgr. Sep ‘15 – Aug ‘16 (12 months)
Super2 239 419
75.0%
Special438 90614.7%
Sifted30 9781.0%
Unsifted14 0440.5%
Other261 132
8.7%
White Maize Meal Products(Sep '15 - Aug '16)
Total Human Consumption: 2 984 479
Wheaten Products : Bread Flour (Ton)
White1 113 522
67.17%
Brown399 61524.11%
Whole wheat3 1200.19%
Other Flour (Industrial)
141 3908.53%
Bread Flour-Sep '15 - Aug '16-
- Ton -
Total: Bread Flour: 1 657 647 ton
(Sep‘15 – Aug ’16 : 12 months)
Wheaten Products: Panbaked bread per type
White1 023 679 565
49.7%
Brown1 000 466 763
48.6%
Whole wheat31 983 739
1.6%
Other3 142 537
0.2%
Panbaked Bread per type
-Oct '15 - Aug '16-
- Units -
Total: 2 059 272 604
(Sep ‘15 – Aug ’16 : 12 months)
Outputs from SAGIS
Availability: Information – Partly SAGIS
SAGIS WEEKLY BULLETIN / SAGIS WEEKLIKSE BULLETIN
1. Producer Deliveries (ton): 1. Produsentelewerings (ton):
Commodity
Latest week/
Jongste week:
25 June - 01 July 2016
Total: current
marketing year/
Totaal: huidige
bemarkingsjaar
Total: same period
previous marketing year/
Totaal: selfde periode
vorige bemarkingsjaar Kommoditeit
White maize 201 840 1 150 301 2 626 147 Witmielies
Yellow maize 305 810 2 140 019 3 054 720 Geelmielies
Total: maize 507 650 3 290 320 5 680 867 Totaal: mielies
Wheat 808 1 392 514 1 691 700 Koring
Weekly bulletin
• Import / Export parity
• Prices
SAGIS’ role in food security
Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) – Government
Availability:
A crop estimate is a
quantitative
determination of crop
size after harvest.
Estimate production
for a specific season.
SAGIS’ role in food security
Availability:Supply & Demand Estimates
Committee (Semi-government)
Independent committee.
Operates under the NAMC.
Projections for grains and oilseeds monthly.
Processing of CEC info regarding crop estimate in terms of supply.
Determination of an official estimate on stock levels at a specific
month for the rest of the marketing year.
50% funding through the industry via Trusts.
SAGIS’ role in food security
Availability Affordability
SAGIS’ information enable various role players in a free
market environment to:
Make timely decisions and planning
Take Informed decisions
SAGIS’ role in food security
Availability Affordability Safety
Free market is an economic system in which prices are
determined by unrestricted competition between privately
owned businesses.
Thus:
Ensure availability of quality products at
best prices (affordability).
Outputs from SAGIS
Intelligence – Not SAGIS
Who’s responsibility
Sources:
• Own
• Market analysts (traders, brokers, etc.)
• NAMC / DAFF
• Producer organisations
• Other organisations
Users of SAGIS’ data/information
What to plant?
Inputs management?
How many to plant?
When to market and how much?
What prices can be expected?
Traders / processors: Availability of local products
Imports / Exports planning
Primary producers:
Industry roleplayers
Users of SAGIS’ data/information
Trade agreements
Food security
Development of new producers
Policy makers:
