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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 1 Unless otherwise noted, data derived from Bright MLS. “Northern Virginia” is defined as Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church & Fairfax. NORTHERN VIRGINIA AUGUST 2020 STATPAK McEnearney.com CONTRACTS Contract activity in July 2020 was up 13.8% from July 2019 and was up in the four higher price categories. Through the first seven months of the year, contract activity is down 6.7%. The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts was 24 days in July 2020, down from 29 days in July of last year. URGENCY INDEX The Urgency Index, simply the percentage of homes going under contract that were on the market 30 days or less, was up in July compared to last July. During the past 16 years, the Index has been as high as 95% (April 2004) and as low as 23% (November 2006). In July 2020, the Urgency Index was 81.8%, up from 73.0% in July 2019. And that is Northern Virginia’s highest July Urgency Index in the past 12 years. INVENTORY The number of homes on the market at the end of July was down 19.1% compared to the end of July 2019 and was lower in four of the six price categories. The number of new listings coming on the market increased 30.8% compared to July of 2019. The drop in inventory combined with the increase in contract activity, lowering overall supply to just 0.9 month from 1.3 months at the end of July 2019. INTEREST RATES 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of July stood at 2.99%, and that is the lowest month-end rate in history. It is three quarters of a point lower than this time last year and slightly lower than the end of last month. Global economic conditions will keep rates low for an extended period of time. AFFORDABILITY The payment on a no-money-down, 30-year fixed mortgage for a median-priced home is 16% higher than it was a decade ago in July 2010, but the median price is up 40%. The payment is 4.7% lower than July of last year. Despite lower interest rates, there was a big spike in the median price. The mortgage payment for a median priced home ($2,632) was higher in July than the median rented price ($2,500). DIRECTION OF THE MARKET The healthy rebound in contract activity that began in mid-May continues. This rebound, combined with another big monthly drop in available inventory, has resulted in exceptionally tight supply overall. However, the impact of COVID-19 continues to be felt in Northern Virginia’s real estate market, as the spring market has been pushed into summer. The increase in contract activity is encouraging, but to provide some context, June and July 2020 contracts are tracking below the peak spring contract months of the last four years. And the rebound is uneven – activity for condos priced less than $500,000 is still lethargic and the number of new condo listings coming on the market in July soared by 43%. This signals a shift in consumer behavior toward homes with a little more elbow room than is typically offered in condos. The condo market is simply softer than it was pre-COVID. MARKET IN A MINUTE A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR JULY 2020

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Page 1: STATPAK AUGUST 2020 NORTHERN VIRGINIA… · days or less, was up in July compared to last July. During the past 16 years, the Index has been as high as 95% (April 2004) and as low

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 1

Unless otherwise noted, data derived from Bright MLS. “Northern Virginia” is defined as Arlington and Fairfax counties and the cities of Alexandria, Falls Church & Fairfax.

NORTHERN VIRGINIA AUGUST 2020 STATPAK

McEnearney.com

CONTRACTS Contract activity in July 2020 was up 13.8% from July 2019 and was up in the four higher price categories. Through the first seven months of the year, contract activity is down 6.7%. The average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts was 24 days in July 2020, down from 29 days in July of last year. URGENCY INDEX The Urgency Index, simply the percentage of homes going under contract that were on the market 30 days or less, was up in July compared to last July. During the past 16 years, the Index has been as high as 95% (April 2004) and as low as 23% (November 2006). In July 2020, the Urgency Index was 81.8%, up from 73.0% in July 2019. And that is Northern Virginia’s highest July Urgency Index in the past 12 years. INVENTORY The number of homes on the market at the end of July was down 19.1% compared to the end of July 2019 and was lower in four of the six price categories. The number of new listings coming on the market increased 30.8% compared to July of 2019. The drop in inventory combined with the increase in contract activity, lowering overall supply to just 0.9 month from 1.3 months at the end of July 2019. INTEREST RATES 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates at the end of July stood at 2.99%, and that is the lowest month-end rate in history. It is three quarters of a point lower than this time last year and slightly lower than the end of last month. Global economic conditions will keep rates low for an extended period of time. AFFORDABILITY The payment on a no-money-down, 30-year fixed mortgage for a median-priced home is 16% higher than it was a decade ago in July 2010, but the median price is up 40%. The payment is 4.7% lower than July of last year. Despite lower interest rates, there was a big spike in the median price. The mortgage payment for a median priced home ($2,632) was higher in July than the median rented price ($2,500). DIRECTION OF THE MARKET The healthy rebound in contract activity that began in mid-May continues. This rebound, combined with another big monthly drop in available inventory, has resulted in exceptionally tight supply overall. However, the impact of COVID-19 continues to be felt in Northern Virginia’s real estate market, as the spring market has been pushed into summer. The increase in contract activity is encouraging, but to provide some context, June and July 2020 contracts are tracking below the peak spring contract months of the last four years. And the rebound is uneven – activity for condos priced less than $500,000 is still lethargic and the number of new condo listings coming on the market in July soared by 43%. This signals a shift in consumer behavior toward homes with a little more elbow room than is typically offered in condos. The condo market is simply softer than it was pre-COVID.

MARKET IN A MINUTE A SUMMARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR JULY 2020

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 2

MONTHLY SUMMARY JULY 2019 vs. JULY 2020

July July %NORTHERN VIRGINIA 2019 2020 Change

Number of Sales 2,258 2,370 5.0%Fully Available Inventory on 7/31 2,657 2,150 -19.1%Number of New Listings 2,273 2,972 30.8%Number of New Contracts 2,065 2,351 13.8%Days on Market - New Contracts 29 24 -17.2%Average Sales Price $620,829 $697,597 12.4%Average Seller Subsidy $2,149 $1,948 -9.4%Urgency Index 73.0% 81.8% 12.1%Months' Supply 1.3 0.9 -28.9%

LOUDOUN COUNTYNumber of Sales 757 851 12.4%Fully Available Inventory on 7/31 1,008 627 -37.8%Number of New Listings 804 960 19.4%Number of New Contracts 640 810 26.6%Days on Market - New Contracts 36 26 -27.6%Average Sales Price $549,478 $606,586 10.4%Average Seller Subsidy $2,854 $2,339 -18.0%Urgency Index 70.2% 84.0% 19.7%Months' Supply 1.6 0.8 -50.9%

WASHINGTON, DCNumber of Sales 801 953 19.0%Fully Available Inventory on 7/31 1,424 1,518 6.6%Number of New Listings 1,035 1,464 41.4%Number of New Contracts 851 1,027 20.7%Days on Market - New Contracts 35 31 -10.7%Average Sales Price $719,375 $787,100 9.4%Average Seller Subsidy $2,573 $2,693 4.7%Urgency Index 66.7% 74.6% 11.8%Months' Supply 1.7 1.5 -11.7%

MONTGOMERY COUNTYNumber of Sales 1,316 1,354 2.9%Fully Available Inventory on 7/31 2,215 1,286 -41.9%Number of New Listings 1,424 1,545 8.5%Number of New Contracts 1,254 1,463 16.7%Days on Market - New Contracts 39 33 -15.4%Average Sales Price $572,909 $599,951 4.7%Average Seller Subsidy $3,575 $3,192 -10.7%Urgency Index 61.7% 74.0% 19.9%Months' Supply 1.8 0.9 -50.2%

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTYNumber of Sales 974 939 -3.6%Fully Available Inventory on 7/31 1,676 788 -53.0%Number of New Listings 1,274 1,191 -6.5%Number of New Contracts 1,134 1,259 11.0%Days on Market - New Contracts 44 29 -34.7%Average Sales Price $328,090 $357,049 8.8%Average Seller Subsidy $5,839 $5,777 -1.1%Urgency Index 60.7% 76.9% 26.7%Months' Supply 1.5 0.6 -57.7%

* Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 3

YEAR-TO-DATE SUMMARY 2019 vs. 2020

Jan-Jul Jan-Jul %NORTHERN VIRGINIA 2019 2020 Change

Number of Closed Sales 13,002 11,816 -9.1%Average Month-End Available Inventory 2,405 1,851 -23.0%Number of New Listings 17,850 16,354 -8.4%Number of New Contracts 14,611 13,632 -6.7%Days on Market - New Contracts 25 24 -3.8%Average Sales Price $612,325 $656,157 7.2%Average Seller Subsidy $2,125 $2,120 -0.2%Average Urgency Index 78.7% 81.9% 4.0%Average Months' Supply 1.2 1.0 -17.5%

LOUDOUN COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 3,908 3,879 -0.7%Average Month-End Available Inventory 912 660 -27.6%Number of New Listings 5,849 5,438 -7.0%Number of New Contracts 4,552 4,529 -0.5%Days on Market - New Contracts 30 27 -9.3%Average Sales Price $537,974 $579,777 7.8%Average Seller Subsidy $2,657 $2,582 -2.8%Average Urgency Index 75.5% 80.8% 7.0%Average Months' Supply 1.4 1.0 -27.2%

WASHINGTON, DCNumber of Closed Sales 5,149 4,902 -4.8%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,371 1,330 -3.0%Number of New Listings 8,037 7,837 -2.5%Number of New Contracts 6,147 5,861 -4.7%Days on Market - New Contracts 36 37 1.6%Average Sales Price $713,852 $741,593 3.9%Average Seller Subsidy $2,352 $2,778 18.1%Average Urgency Index 69.2% 69.0% -0.4%Average Months' Supply 1.6 1.6 0.0%

MONTGOMERY COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 6,983 6,733 -3.6%Average Month-End Available Inventory 2,019 1,362 -32.6%Number of New Listings 10,868 9,296 -14.5%Number of New Contracts 8,606 8,047 -6.5%Days on Market - New Contracts 41 35 -13.2%Average Sales Price $557,786 $574,725 3.0%Average Seller Subsidy $3,437 $3,593 4.5%Average Urgency Index 66.5% 71.3% 7.1%Average Months' Supply 1.6 1.2 -27.9%

PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTYNumber of Closed Sales 5,781 5,440 -5.9%Average Month-End Available Inventory 1,627 1,053 -35.3%Number of New Listings 8,779 7,607 -13.4%Number of New Contracts 8,136 7,385 -9.2%Days on Market - New Contracts 48 38 -21.6%Average Sales Price $312,864 $341,926 9.3%Average Seller Subsidy $5,629 $6,109 8.5%Average Urgency Index 58.8% 67.8% 15.4%Average Months' Supply 1.4 1.0 -28.7%

* Note: Percentages depicted in red indicate a negative market trend; black indicates a positive market trend

Year-to-Date

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 4

NORTHERN VIRGINIA – Detail Pages (Fairfax & Arlington Counties, Alexandria, Falls Church and Fairfax Cities)

BUYING POWER • A $1,000 principal and interest

payment supported a loan of $237,493 at the end of July, which is $21,564 more than July 2019, and $56,400 more than July 2009.

• In July 2010, it would have taken a monthly PI payment of $2,265 to purchase a median-priced home – now it takes $2,632, a 16% increase.

• Lower interest rates have helped offset the $180,000 increase (up 40%) in the median price since July 2010.

BUYING POWER Mortgage Amount with $1,000 Payment

AVERAGE PRICES • The average sales price in July

2020 was $697,597, up 12.4% from the July 2019 average price of $620,829.

• The median sales price was $625,000 in July 2020, up 15.1% from the median price in July 2019.

• Remember that these indicators are arithmetic computations on the spike in July was largely the result of a significant drop in the number of sales of lower-priced homes.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE Northern Virginia – 2012-Current

MORTGAGE RATES • 30-year fixed interest rates at

the end of July averaged 2.99%, compared to 3.75% at the end of July 2019.

• One-year adjustable rate mortgages were 2.94% at the end of July 2020, which is down from 3.46% at the end of July 2019.

30-YEAR FIXED AND 1-YEAR ADJUSTABLE RATES Month-End Mortgage Rates – 2013-Current

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 5

URGENCY INDEX – DC Metro Area • The average July Urgency Index

during the past 12 years for all five of the jurisdictions we track is 59.3% – significantly lower than where we are today, which is 78.4% for all five jurisdictions.

• Of the five jurisdictions, Northern Virginia has the second highest urgency index this month. As noted above, it is at its 12-year peak.

URGENCY INDEX DC Metro Area by Jurisdiction Comparison – July 2020

URGENCY INDEX - July • During the past 12 years, the July

Urgency Index has been as high as 81.8% and as low as 49.8%. And we’re at that high mark now.

• The average July Urgency Index in Northern Virginia during the past 12 years is 61.3% – which is significantly lower than where we are today.

• Contract activity is up 13.8% from last July – and the Urgency Index increased from 73.0% to 81.8%.

URGENCY INDEX Northern Virginia – July 2009-2020

URGENCY INDEX – 2016-Current • This chart compares the number

of contracts (green line) to the percent that were on the market 30 days or less (blue bars). At first glance, it might appear that the lower contract activity also means a lower percentage of homes that sell quickly – but that’s not always true.

URGENCY INDEX % of Contracts on the Market for 30 Days or Less

Northern Virginia – 2016-Current

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 6

FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS • As noted on page 2, the month-

end inventory decreased 19.1% for July 2020 compared to July 2019 – but the number of homes coming on the market increased 30.8%.

• Inventory is down for four price categories.

• 27.0% of all homes on the market have had at least one price reduction since coming on the market. Last July 36.7% of all homes on the market had at least one price reduction.

MONTHS’ SUPPLY • The overall supply of homes on

the market at the end of July was 0.9 months, which decreased 28.9% compared to the end of July 2019.

• Price category supply ranges from a low of 0.6 month for homes priced $300,000-$749,999 and a high of 4.3 months for homes priced $1,500,000 and higher.

FULLY AVAILABLE LISTINGS Northern Virginia – July 30, 2019 vs. July 30, 2020

MONTHS’ SUPPLY Northern Virginia – End of July 2019 vs. End of July 2020

NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY • The number of new contracts

ratified in July 2020 was up 13.8% from the number of contracts ratified in July 2019 and was up for homes priced more than $500,000.

• As noted on page 3, contract activity year-to-date is down 6.7%.

• Only 15.8% of all homes going under contract in July 2020 had at least one price reduction before going under contract. Last July it was 23.2%.

NEW CONTRACT ACTIVITY Northern Virginia – July 2019 vs. July 2020 by Price Range

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0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

$0 - $299,999

$300,000 - $499,999

$500,000 - $749,999

$750,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 - $1,499,999

$1,500,000 and higher

# of New Contracts

July 2020

July 2019

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 7

RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET • As we have noted in this space

for years, initial pricing strategy is critical to sellers’ success.

• Homes settling in July 2020 that received contracts their first week on the market sold, on average, 2.1% above original list price. Those that took 4 months or longer to sell sold for 7.3% below original list price.

SOME DEFINITIONS AND EXPLANATIONS TO AID YOUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE DATA • All data describing “Northern Virginia” include the counties of Arlington and Fairfax, the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax and Falls Church, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon & Clifton • The data shown here are collected, in whole or in part, from the Metropolitan Regional Information System, Inc, and are believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed • “Sales” are transactions that settled during the statistical period; “Under Contracts” are contracts negotiated during the statistical period, but not yet settled • “Available Listings” reflects single-family homes, town homes, new homes and condos on the market at the end of the period in question. • “Months’ Supply” is simply the number of “Fully Available Listings” on the market at the end of the month divided by the number of “Contracts” ratified that month.

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS AND CONTRACTS; ACTIVE LISTINGS

Northern Virginia – January 2014-Current

RELATIONSHIP OF SALES PRICE TO ORIGINAL LIST PRICE vs. DAYS ON MARKET

Resale Properties Sold in Northern Virginia – July 2019 vs. July 2020

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON THE MARKET – NEW CONTRACTS • The average number of days on

the market for homes receiving contracts in July was down for all price categories.

• Overall, the average number of days on the market for homes receiving contracts in July 2020 was just 24 days, down 17.2% from 29 days in July 2019.

NUMBER OF NEW LISTINGS, CONTRACTS AND ACTIVE LISTINGS • There were 2,972 new listings

that came on the market in July 2020, up 30.8% from the 2,273 in July 2019.

• The lines representing active listings (green), new listings (blue) and new contracts (red) have narrowed since the middle of last year, and now overlap.

AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS ON MARKET Northern Virginia – July 2019 vs. July 2020 – New Contracts

25.0

16.1

24.1

38.9

59.8

150.5

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15.6

24.9

44.9

113.8

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175

$0 - $299,999

$300,000 - $499,999

$500,000 - $749,999

$750,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 - $1,499,999

$1,500,000 and higher

July 2020

July 2019

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Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 8

Analysis by Property Type – Condo/Co-op

CONDO/CO-OP – LISTINGS • The number of new listings for

condos and co-ops coming on the market was up 43.3% compared to July 2019.

• The fully available inventory of condos as of July 31, 2020 was 44.3% more than the same time in 2019.

LISTINGS

CONDO/CO-OP – CONTRACTS • The number of condos and

co-ops receiving ratified contracts increased 4.5% in July 2020 compared to July 2019.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is down 12.2% compared to 2019.

CONTRACTS

CONDO/CO-OP – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of condos and

co-ops settling in July 2020 decreased 6.8% compared to July 2019. Year-to-date, the number of settlements is down 14.8%.

• The average price was up 10.4% compared to July 2019.

• Year-to-date, the average price is up 6.7%.

SETTLEMENTS

Condo/Co-opListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 283 331 17.0% 180 217 20.6%$300,000 - $499,999 247 424 71.7% 164 254 54.9%$500,000 - $749,999 104 141 35.6% 78 132 69.2%$750,000 - $999,999 19 35 84.2% 32 38 18.8%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 7 16 128.6% 19 36 89.5%$1,500,000 & higher 5 6 20.0% 21 36 71.4%Grand Total: 665 953 43.3% 494 713 44.3%

New This Month Total Active

Condo/Co-opContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 292 246 -15.8% 2055 1538 -25.2%$300,000 - $499,999 234 299 27.8% 1585 1587 0.1%$500,000 - $749,999 94 92 -2.1% 444 460 3.6%$750,000 - $999,999 13 20 53.8% 116 94 -19.0%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 3 9 200.0% 26 28 7.7%$1,500,000 & higher 3 2 -33.3% 16 17 6.3%Grand Total: 639 668 4.5% 4242 3724 -12.2%

New This Month Year-To-Date

Condo/Co-opSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 276 218 -21.0% 1763 1269 -28.0%$300,000 - $499,999 276 260 -5.8% 1466 1391 -5.1%$500,000 - $749,999 61 91 49.2% 401 416 3.7%$750,000 - $999,999 14 13 -7.1% 88 85 -3.4%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 4 4 0.0% 32 27 -15.6%$1,500,000 & higher 1 3 200.0% 9 16 77.8%Grand Total: 632 589 -6.8% 3759 3204 -14.8%

Average Sales Price: July 2019 July 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % ChangeCondo/Co-op $349,827 $386,347 10.4% $353,195 $376,933 6.7%

New This Month Year-To-Date

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Analysis by Property Type – Fee Simple Attached

ATTACHED HOMES – LISTINGS • The number of new listings

coming on the market in July 2020 for fee simple attached homes increased 24.2% from July 2019.

• Fully active inventory at the end of July was down 24.2% compared to the available inventory at the end of July 2019.

LISTINGS

ATTACHED HOMES – CONTRACTS • Contract activity for attached

homes increased 16.7% in July 2020 compared to July 2019.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is down 2.7%.

CONTRACTS

ATTACHED HOMES – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of settlements

increased 6.3% in July 2020 compared to July 2019. Year-to-date, the number of settlements decreased 5.2%.

• The average sales price increased 13.3% in July 2020 compared to July 2019.

• The average price year-to-date is up 5.3%.

SETTLEMENTS

Fee Simple AttachedListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 10 3 -70.0% 3 2 -33.3%$300,000 - $499,999 313 318 1.6% 162 90 -44.4%$500,000 - $749,999 214 300 40.2% 184 127 -31.0%$750,000 - $999,999 45 96 113.3% 69 79 14.5%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 16 27 68.8% 21 32 52.4%$1,500,000 & higher 6 6 0.0% 19 17 -10.5%Grand Total: 604 750 24.2% 458 347 -24.2%

New This Month Total Active

Fee Simple AttachedContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 16 1 -93.8% 77 26 -66.2%$300,000 - $499,999 324 271 -16.4% 2036 1649 -19.0%$500,000 - $749,999 151 250 65.6% 1148 1393 21.3%$750,000 - $999,999 33 71 115.2% 257 324 26.1%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 8 24 200.0% 105 129 22.9%$1,500,000 & higher 1 5 400.0% 25 28 12.0%Grand Total: 533 622 16.7% 3648 3549 -2.7%

New This Month Year-To-Date

Fee Simple AttachedSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 8 1 -87.5% 56 26 -53.6%$300,000 - $499,999 326 222 -31.9% 1717 1347 -21.5%$500,000 - $749,999 176 275 56.3% 1103 1304 18.2%$750,000 - $999,999 44 71 61.4% 254 267 5.1%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 17 39 129.4% 102 119 16.7%$1,500,000 & higher 3 2 -33.3% 22 21 -4.5%Grand Total: 574 610 6.3% 3254 3084 -5.2%

Average Sales Price: July 2019 July 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % ChangeFee Simple Attached $532,295 $603,124 13.3% $542,010 $570,720 5.3%

New This Month Year-To-Date

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DETACHED HOMES – CONTRACTS • There was an increase of 18.8%

in the number of contracts on detached homes in July 2020 compared to July 2019.

• There is basically no inventory for would-be purchasers looking to buy for less than $300,000.

• Year-to-date, contract activity is down 5.4%.

CONTRACTS

DETACHED HOMES – SETTLEMENTS AND AVERAGE PRICE • The number of settlements in

July was up 11.3% compared to last July. Year-to-date, the number of settlements has decreased 7.7%.

• The average sales price for detached homes increased 8.6% in July 2020 compared to July 2019.

• The average sales price year-to-date is up 6.5%.

SETTLEMENTS

Analysis by Property Type – Fee Simple Detached

DETACHED HOMES – LISTINGS • The number of new listings for

fee simple detached homes increased 26.4% in July 2020 compared to July 2019.

• The number of detached homes on the market on July 31, 2020 was down 36.1% compared to July 31, 2019.

LISTINGS

Fee Simple DetachedListings 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 0 1 - 0 1 -$300,000 - $499,999 82 56 -31.7% 56 22 -60.7%$500,000 - $749,999 435 470 8.0% 414 181 -56.3%$750,000 - $999,999 271 364 34.3% 430 208 -51.6%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 122 234 91.8% 381 249 -34.6%$1,500,000 & higher 94 144 53.2% 424 429 1.2%Grand Total: 1004 1269 26.4% 1705 1090 -36.1%

New This Month Total Active

Fee Simple DetachedContracts 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 1 0 -100.0% 4 6 50.0%$300,000 - $499,999 91 54 -40.7% 715 417 -41.7%$500,000 - $749,999 416 415 -0.2% 3024 2643 -12.6%$750,000 - $999,999 233 316 35.6% 1731 1880 8.6%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 100 172 72.0% 855 942 10.2%$1,500,000 & higher 52 104 100.0% 392 471 20.2%Grand Total: 893 1061 18.8% 6721 6359 -5.4%

New This Month Year-To-Date

Fee Simple DetachedSettlements 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change$299,999 and under 8 1 -87.5% 15 2 -86.7%$300,000 - $499,999 87 37 -57.5% 586 322 -45.1%$500,000 - $749,999 473 465 -1.7% 2752 2372 -13.8%$750,000 - $999,999 265 368 38.9% 1528 1624 6.3%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 157 208 32.5% 783 838 7.0%$1,500,000 & higher 62 92 48.4% 325 370 13.8%Grand Total: 1052 1171 11.3% 5989 5528 -7.7%

Average Sales Price: July 2019 July 2020 % Change YTD 2019 YTD 2020 % ChangeFee Simple Detached $831,944 $903,366 8.6% $813,172 $865,658 6.5%

New This Month Year-To-Date

Page 11: STATPAK AUGUST 2020 NORTHERN VIRGINIA… · days or less, was up in July compared to last July. During the past 16 years, the Index has been as high as 95% (April 2004) and as low

Copyright © 2020 – McEnearney Associates Northern Virginia StatPak - Page 11

Absorption Rate by Property Type The following tables track absorption rate by property type, comparing the rates in the just-completed month to the rates in the same month of the previous year. The absorption rate is a measure of the health of the market and tracks the percentage of homes that were on the market during the given month and in the given price range that went under contract. [The formula is # Contracts/(# Contracts + # Available).] An example: The absorption rate for detached homes priced $500,000-$749,999 in July 2020 was 69.6%. That compares to a rate of 50.1% in July 2019, and the increase means the market was better in 2020 for that type of home. If the absorption rate was less in 2020 than in 2019, we have put the 2020 rate in red. This month there was improvement for 12 of 18 individual price categories with activity.

ABSORPTION RATES – CONDOS AND CO-OPS • The overall absorption rate for

condos and co-ops for July 2020 was 48.4%, a decrease from the 56.4% rate in July 2019.

ABSORPTION RATES – ATTACHED HOMES • The overall absorption rate for

attached homes in July 2020 was 64.2%, a significant increase from the 53.8% rate in July 2019.

ABSORPTION RATES – DETACHED HOMES • July 2020’s absorption rate for

detached homes was 49.3%, a significant increase from the 34.4% rate in July 2019.

• There was one home priced less than $300K on the market at the end of the month.

Condo/Co-opAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate$299,999 and under 180 292 61.9% 217 246 53.1%$300,000 - $499,999 164 234 58.8% 254 299 54.1%$500,000 - $749,999 78 94 54.7% 132 92 41.1%$750,000 - $999,999 32 13 28.9% 38 20 34.5%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 19 3 13.6% 36 9 20.0%$1,500,000 & higher 21 3 12.5% 36 2 5.3%Grand Total: 494 639 56.4% 713 668 48.4%

July 2019 July 2020

Fee Simple AttachedAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate$299,999 and under 3 16 84.2% 2 1 33.3%$300,000 - $499,999 162 324 66.7% 90 271 75.1%$500,000 - $749,999 184 151 45.1% 127 250 66.3%$750,000 - $999,999 69 33 32.4% 79 71 47.3%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 21 8 27.6% 32 24 42.9%$1,500,000 & higher 19 1 5.0% 17 5 22.7%Grand Total: 458 533 53.8% 347 622 64.2%

July 2019 July 2020

Fee Simple DetachedAbsorption Rates Listings Contracts Rate Listings Contracts Rate$299,999 and under 0 1 100.0% 1 0 0.0%$300,000 - $499,999 56 91 61.9% 22 54 71.1%$500,000 - $749,999 414 416 50.1% 181 415 69.6%$750,000 - $999,999 430 233 35.1% 208 316 60.3%$1,000,000 - $1,499,999 381 100 20.8% 249 172 40.9%$1,500,000 & higher 424 52 10.9% 429 104 19.5%Grand Total: 1705 893 34.4% 1090 1061 49.3%

July 2020July 2019