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STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES Jaee Samant Director, Labour Market 3 July 2014

STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES Jaee Samant Director, Labour Market 3 July 2014

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Page 1: STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES Jaee Samant Director, Labour Market 3 July 2014

STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES

Jaee Samant

Director, Labour Market

3 July 2014

Page 2: STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES Jaee Samant Director, Labour Market 3 July 2014

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What am I covering ?

• Why statistics matter

• What unites and divides us

• How they matter – 2 case studies

• My personal reflections

Page 3: STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES Jaee Samant Director, Labour Market 3 July 2014

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Why do statistics matter ?

• Numbers are usually more precise than words and measure progress, success or failure more precisely

• They enable us to see snapshots as well as longer term trends in a world which feels increasingly short-termist

• They enable us to develop and deliver better policy and public services

• They help to tell a story• All statistics are political as well as scientific

Page 4: STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES Jaee Samant Director, Labour Market 3 July 2014

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What unites us ?

• UKSA - statutory duty to serve ‘the public good’• GSS - meet the needs of Government, business

and the public for trusted, authoritative, trusted and timely statistics, and related advice and analysis

• Civil Service Code - provide information and advice, including advice to Ministers, on the basis of the evidence, and accurately present the options and facts

• Take due account of expert and professional advice

Page 5: STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES Jaee Samant Director, Labour Market 3 July 2014

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What can divide us ?

• Our own understanding of the data

• Our own understanding of the wider context in which the data is being developed

• What it actually means versus how it will be perceived by the media and public

• The differing pressures which drive us – but don’t assume that only you care about integrity

Page 6: STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES Jaee Samant Director, Labour Market 3 July 2014

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Case study: NMW / Earnings / ‘cost of living’ 1• Average weekly earnings data are released on a

relatively timely and frequent basis, as are statistics on average inflation measures.

• Detailed (and much more accurate) earnings data is released on an annual basis, around 9 months after the data reference point. Household income data is also released annually, but has a 12 – 14 month time lag.

Page 7: STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES Jaee Samant Director, Labour Market 3 July 2014

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Case study: NMW / Earnings/ ‘cost of living’ 2• Possibly because of this, the public seem to use

‘real’ average weekly wages as a measure for overall living standards, or even to talk about the ‘cost of living crisis’ (which has more to do with inflation above target for much of 2009 - 13).

• Real average weekly wages have been falling, until very recently. However, not only does this headline mask a whole load of detail among the wage distribution (including some better news stories), it is also slightly disconnected with what has been going on in the income distribution.

Page 8: STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES Jaee Samant Director, Labour Market 3 July 2014

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Case study: NMW / Earnings / ‘cost of living’ 3• The NMW and average weekly wages have fallen since the start of the

recession. Average household incomes have also fallen – but by not as much, due to offsetting changes in the tax and benefit system

• Focusing on average measures paints a misleading picture: different groups, and parts of the income distribution have fared very differently in recent years

• Between 2011 – 2013 for example, the largest falls in real earnings were for the top 10% of earners.

• Average inflation has been above target. However, headline measures such as CPI, have hidden how price increases have impacted different households due to their particular consumption patterns

• Government policy and the UK economy’s strong employment record may have played a significant role in maintaining the incomes of

certain groups

Page 9: STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES Jaee Samant Director, Labour Market 3 July 2014

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Case study: NMW / Earnings/ ‘cost of living’ 4This interesting chart from the latest Low Pay Commission report shows how focusing on a shorter, more recent time period can paint a misleading picture. Although the real value of the NMW has fallen since the recession, since its introduction in 1999, it has increased much faster than both average wages and inflation.

Page 10: STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES Jaee Samant Director, Labour Market 3 July 2014

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Case study: Divergence between police recorded crime and the Crime Survey 1

Police recorded crime Crime Survey

Crimes outside the survey’s coverage (e.g. against businesses, non-residents, “victimless”)

Crimes not reported to police

“Comparable” basket

Page 11: STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES Jaee Samant Director, Labour Market 3 July 2014

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Case study: Divergence between police recorded crime and the Crime Survey 2

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National Crime Recording Standard introduced in April 2002 led to improved recording – sustained for around 5 years

Police discretion over crime recording

Downward trend over last 5 years

Page 12: STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES Jaee Samant Director, Labour Market 3 July 2014

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Case study: Divergence between police recorded crime and the Crime Survey 3• Possible drivers:• Performance pressures associated with targets acting as perverse

incentives for some crimes to be downgraded from notifiable into non-notifiable categories/ASB/crime-related incidents

• Cessation of independent audits from 2006/07 may have reduced the focus on addressing non-compliance

• Lack of awareness or adequate understanding of the National Crime Recording Standards as time passed from its launch

• Move to Neighbourhood Policing may also have led to more low level crimes being dealt with outside the formal crime recording system

Page 13: STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES Jaee Samant Director, Labour Market 3 July 2014

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Case study: Divergence between police recorded crime and the Crime Survey 4• HMIC carried out inspection of crime recording in Kent (Feb 2013)

• UK Stats Authority re-assessment of Crime Statistics (June 2013)

• HMIC announced plans to carry out national inspection during 2014

• Public Administration Select Committee Inquiry (October 2013) Reported in April 2014 - “Caught Red Handed – why we can’t count on

police recorded crime”

• De-designation of police recorded crime as National Statistics Accumulating evidence suggests data may not be reliable ONS doesn’t have sufficient information about the quality of these data Authority concerned that previous requirements around need for

independent audit of the data has not been fully addressed

Page 14: STATISTICS, STATISTICS AND DAMN LIES Jaee Samant Director, Labour Market 3 July 2014

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My personal reflections

• The GSS/ONS brand does add credibility• But it does not prevent Parliament, business, the

media or people from failing to understand what the data says

• And nor does it prevent the data from being misrepresented wilfully

• So clarity about the substance of the data as well as the narrative around it are key – which is why statisticians, policy and press office folks working hand in hand is so critical while maintaining independence and integrity