The US Census Bureau

Acceleration/Deceleration Trends

State Population Growth Statistics

State Population

2014 Population Growth Watch

Full-Year 2014 Highlights

State PopulationGrowth ReportPowered by Maximus iQ

2014 State Population Growth Watch

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The US Census Bureau recently released 2014 net population growth data by state. This provides a look into what regions and states are attracting new residents, as well as those struggling to generate population growth. Demographic growth is a key component of economic, real estate and housing market performance. Population increases feed into a positive-feedback cycle; new residents typically equates to more jobs and increased demand for homes, apartment and commercial real estate space. The other side of the coin is all too familiar to regions like the Midwest and Rust Belt, where job cuts and out-migration feed into each other and contribute to overall regional decline and weak demand for homes and commercial space.

States such as Nevada, Arizona and Florida, home to some of the most disastrous ‘housing bust markets’ during the recent recession, were not only among the fastest growing states in 2014 but also posted among the strongest growth accelerations in 2014. All three ranked in the top ten states in 2014 population growth, increasing 1.7%, 1.5% and 1.5%, respectively. This is double the overall US average of 0.75%, and largely reflects the rebounding economies and housing markets of Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tampa, Miami, Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Orlando. Warm-weather locales, especially Florida, have long been hot spots for relocating retirees, but a low cost of living and a significantly less distressed housing market are the real factors driving newly strengthening demographic gains in these states. The aforementioned states rank in the top ten in both population growth rate and acceleration over the past one, three and five-year periods and the acceleration in population growth provides a solid foundation for stronger single-family and apartment demand.

The cluster of states surrounding the New York metropolitan region, including New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania, serves as a foil for the cheap, warm-weather, post-housing bust states. High taxes and overall costs of living and doing business are cramping population growth in the region. All four states ranked below average in 2014 population growth, as they have done for the past three and five-year periods. Population gains have slowly decelerated in the past five years, while Connecticut was one of only five states to see population contract in 2014. All four states maintain drawn-out, judicial-only foreclosure processes, which have

slowed their housing market recoveries. Slow demographic growth and stagnant home values, coupled with an expensive cost of living, is a toxic brew that not only drives away residents but also prolongs any housing recovery.

Washington DC and its neighboring states are following a concerning trajectory, though population growth remained strong in DC in 2014, ranking fifth among states. Population growth in DC, Virginia and Maryland has decelerated for three consecutive years. DC is still growing faster than its historical trend, but we fear Federal spending constraints will continue to

impede employment growth, hurting office space demand and cooling the flow of new residents. When the rest of the nation was struggling to grow, the DC area’s economic strength lured people seeking jobs. Now the rest of the economy is improving while the DC area has slowed, shifting the migration dynamics. DC ranked 48th of 51 states plus DC in year-over-year deceleration and 50th in deceleration over the past three years, illustrating this slowdown in migration. This creates a potential supply-demand mismatch, as development, based on recent growth and projections that it will continue, runs into weaker demand as population growth slows.

-0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

West VirginiaIllinois

ConnecticutAlaska

New MexicoVermont

PennsylvaniaMississippi

MaineMichiganWyoming

Rhode IslandOhio

WisconsinNew YorkArkansas

KansasNew Jersey

MissouriKentucky

New HampshireAlabama

IndianaLouisiana

IowaMassachusetts

MarylandOklahomaMinnesotaNebraska

VirginiaUS

HawaiiTennessee

MontanaSouth Dakota

North CarolinaCalifornia

GeorgiaOregon

DelawareWashington

South CarolinaIdahoUtah

ArizonaFlorida

DCColorado

TexasNevada

North Dakota

44 of 51 States (Including DC) Enjoyed Population Growth in 2014, Though a Majority Saw Growth Slow from 2013*

*Annual Population Growth, 2014 vs. 2013. Sources: US Census Bureau, Auction.com Research

0.7%

2014 State Population Growth Watch

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2014 Population Growth Watch for US States and Washington, D.C.

2014 % Change, y-y

3-Year Change

5-Year Change

2014 Acceleration, bps

3-Year Acceleration

5-Year Acceleration

Population % Change

Acceleration/Deceleration, Basis Points

North Dakota ......................... 2.2%

Nevada .................................. 1.7%

Texas ...................................... 1.7%

Colorado ................................ 1.6%

DC ......................................... 1.5%

Florida ................................... 1.5%

Arizona................................... 1.5%

Utah ....................................... 1.4%

Idaho ..................................... 1.3%

South Carolina ....................... 1.3%

Washington ........................... 1.3%

Delaware................................ 1.1%

Oregon .................................. 1.1%

Georgia .................................. 1.0%

California ............................... 1.0%

North Carolina ....................... 1.0%

South Dakota ......................... 0.9%

Montana ................................ 0.9%

Tennessee .............................. 0.8%

Hawaii.................................... 0.8%

US ................................ 0.7%

Virginia .................................. 0.7%

Nebraska................................ 0.7%

Minnesota ............................. 0.6%

Oklahoma .............................. 0.6%

Maryland ............................... 0.6%

Massachusetts ....................... 0.5%

Iowa ....................................... 0.5%

Louisiana ............................... 0.4%

Indiana .................................. 0.4%

Alabama ................................ 0.3%

New Hampshire ..................... 0.3%

Kentucky ................................ 0.3%

Missouri ................................. 0.3%

New Jersey ............................ 0.3%

Kansas ................................... 0.3%

Arkansas ................................ 0.3%

New York ................................ 0.3%

Wisconsin .............................. 0.3%

Ohio ....................................... 0.2%

Rhode Island ......................... 0.2%

Wyoming ............................... 0.2%

Michigan ............................... 0.1%

Maine .................................... 0.1%

Mississippi ............................. 0.1%

Pennsylvania ......................... 0.0%

Vermont ................................. 0.0%

New Mexico .......................... -0.1%

Alaska ................................... -0.1%

Connecticut........................... -0.1%

Illinois ................................... -0.1%

West Virginia ........................ -0.2%

North Dakota ......................... 7.9%

Delaware................................ 6.2%

Texas ...................................... 5.1%

Colorado ................................ 4.6%

Utah ....................................... 4.5%

Nevada .................................. 4.4%

Florida ................................... 4.1%

Arizona................................... 4.0%

South Dakota ......................... 3.5%

Washington ........................... 3.5%

South Carolina ....................... 3.4%

Idaho ..................................... 3.2%

DC ......................................... 3.1%

North Carolina ....................... 3.0%

Hawaii.................................... 3.0%

California ............................... 2.9%

Wyoming ............................... 2.9%

Georgia .................................. 2.9%

Virginia .................................. 2.7%

Oregon .................................. 2.7%

Montana ................................ 2.6%

Oklahoma .............................. 2.4%

Tennessee .............................. 2.4%

US ................................ 2.3%

Maryland ............................... 2.3%

Nebraska................................ 2.1%

Minnesota ............................. 2.0%

Massachusetts ....................... 2.0%

Alaska .................................... 2.0%

Louisiana ............................... 1.6%

Iowa ....................................... 1.4%

Indiana .................................. 1.2%

Kansas ................................... 1.2%

New York ................................ 1.1%

New Jersey ............................ 1.1%

Kentucky ................................ 1.0%

Alabama ................................ 1.0%

Arkansas ................................ 1.0%

Missouri ................................. 0.9%

Wisconsin .............................. 0.9%

New Hampshire ..................... 0.7%

Mississippi ............................. 0.5%

Ohio ....................................... 0.4%

Michigan ............................... 0.3%

New Mexico ........................... 0.3%

Pennsylvania ......................... 0.3%

Rhode Island ......................... 0.3%

Connecticut............................ 0.2%

Illinois .................................... 0.2%

Maine .................................... 0.2%

Vermont ................................. 0.0%

West Virginia ........................ -0.3%

Delaware.............................. 11.3%

North Dakota ....................... 11.2%

Texas ...................................... 8.7%

Utah ....................................... 8.1%

Colorado ................................ 7.7%

Florida ................................... 6.7%

Arizona................................... 6.1%

Washington ........................... 5.9%

Nevada .................................. 5.8%

South Dakota ......................... 5.7%

Alaska .................................... 5.4%

Hawaii.................................... 5.4%

South Carolina ....................... 5.3%

North Carolina ....................... 5.2%

Idaho ..................................... 5.1%

Virginia .................................. 5.1%

California ............................... 5.0%

Georgia .................................. 5.0%

DC ......................................... 4.9%

Wyoming ............................... 4.3%

Oklahoma .............................. 4.3%

Maryland ............................... 4.3%

Oregon .................................. 4.2%

Montana ................................ 4.0%

US ................................ 3.9%

Tennessee .............................. 3.9%

Nebraska................................ 3.8%

Louisiana ............................... 3.5%

Massachusetts ....................... 3.5%

Minnesota ............................. 3.3%

Kansas ................................... 2.5%

Iowa ....................................... 2.4%

Arkansas ................................ 2.4%

New Mexico ........................... 2.4%

New York ................................ 2.3%

Kentucky ................................ 2.2%

Indiana .................................. 2.1%

New Jersey ............................ 2.1%

Alabama ................................ 1.9%

Missouri ................................. 1.7%

Wisconsin .............................. 1.6%

Mississippi ............................. 1.2%

Connecticut............................ 1.0%

Pennsylvania ......................... 1.0%

New Hampshire ..................... 0.8%

Illinois .................................... 0.7%

Ohio ....................................... 0.6%

Vermont ................................. 0.3%

Rhode Island ......................... 0.1%

West Virginia ......................... 0.1%

Michigan ............................... 0.1%

Maine .................................... 0.0%

Nevada ...................................... 39

Oregon ...................................... 32

Georgia ...................................... 26

Idaho ......................................... 26

Arizona....................................... 25

Florida ....................................... 23

South Carolina ........................... 22

New Hampshire ......................... 22

Delaware.................................... 21

Tennessee .................................. 15

Washington ............................... 14

Texas .......................................... 13

Rhode Island ............................. 10

Maine ........................................ 10

Colorado ...................................... 4

Ohio ............................................. 1

California ..................................... 0

US .....................................-1

Missouri ...................................... -2

Michigan .................................... -2

Alabama ..................................... -2

West Virginia .............................. -3

Pennsylvania .............................. -4

Kentucky ..................................... -5

Iowa ............................................ -6

Nebraska..................................... -6

Kansas ........................................ -6

Wisconsin ................................... -6

Arkansas ..................................... -6

North Carolina ............................ -7

Louisiana .................................... -9

New Jersey ............................... -10

Montana ................................... -11

Indiana ..................................... -11

Minnesota ................................ -12

Mississippi ................................ -14

Vermont .................................... -16

Maryland .................................. -16

New Mexico .............................. -17

New York ................................... -19

Illinois ....................................... -21

Connecticut............................... -21

Massachusetts .......................... -25

Virginia ..................................... -26

Utah .......................................... -28

Oklahoma ................................. -30

South Dakota ............................ -41

Hawaii....................................... -41

DC ............................................ -71

Alaska ....................................... -92

Wyoming .................................. -94

North Dakota .......................... -100

Nevada .................................... 104

Idaho ......................................... 31

North Dakota ............................. 28

South Carolina ........................... 24

Rhode Island ............................. 22

Michigan ................................... 20

New Hampshire ......................... 19

Arizona....................................... 19

Maine ........................................ 14

Ohio ........................................... 12

Oregon ...................................... 12

Montana ...................................... 3

Delaware...................................... 2

Tennessee ................................... -2

Missouri ...................................... -5

Indiana ..................................... -11

Wisconsin ................................. -13

Iowa .......................................... -13

Florida ...................................... -14

Alabama ................................... -14

Vermont .................................... -16

Minnesota ................................ -18

Washington .............................. -19

Nebraska................................... -20

Colorado ................................... -21

US ...................................-22

California .................................. -24

North Carolina .......................... -25

Georgia ..................................... -27

New Jersey ............................... -28

Pennsylvania ............................ -28

West Virginia ............................ -28

Oklahoma ................................. -29

Illinois ....................................... -30

Kansas ...................................... -31

Mississippi ................................ -31

South Dakota ............................ -32

Texas ......................................... -33

Kentucky ................................... -39

Massachusetts .......................... -44

Utah .......................................... -48

New York ................................... -48

Louisiana .................................. -50

Arkansas ................................... -52

Connecticut............................... -53

Wyoming .................................. -55

Hawaii....................................... -57

Maryland .................................. -58

Virginia ..................................... -69

New Mexico ............................ -100

DC .......................................... -160

Alaska ..................................... -181

North Dakota ........................... 103

Florida ....................................... 82

Michigan ................................... 57

Nevada ...................................... 54

Arizona....................................... 45

New Hampshire ......................... 30

Rhode Island ............................. 30

Delaware.................................... 23

Maine ........................................ 17

Montana ...................................... 8

Ohio ............................................. 7

Idaho ........................................... 3

Oregon ........................................ 2

Minnesota ................................... 0

California .................................... -1

Iowa ............................................ -6

South Carolina ............................ -8

South Dakota .............................. -9

Colorado ................................... -10

US ...................................-13

Tennessee ................................. -14

Indiana ..................................... -14

Vermont .................................... -15

Maryland .................................. -16

Georgia ..................................... -19

Massachusetts .......................... -21

New Jersey ............................... -21

New York ................................... -24

Nebraska................................... -24

Wisconsin ................................. -25

Mississippi ................................ -31

Missouri .................................... -32

Kentucky ................................... -32

Texas ......................................... -32

Hawaii....................................... -34

Washington .............................. -34

Pennsylvania ............................ -39

Illinois ....................................... -47

Virginia ..................................... -50

Arkansas ................................... -52

Alabama ................................... -52

Connecticut............................... -53

North Carolina .......................... -54

DC ............................................ -56

West Virginia ............................ -58

Kansas ...................................... -59

Oklahoma ................................. -68

Louisiana .................................. -82

Utah .......................................... -89

New Mexico ............................ -136

Alaska ..................................... -174

Wyoming ................................ -237

No Change Negative growth

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