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Thursday, May 21, 2020 9:00 a.m. 10:00 a.m. PDT State of the Wine Industry Special Edition

State of the Wine Industry – Special Editiond24wuq6o951i2g.cloudfront.net/img/events/457735720/...Cocktail kit Spirit Mixer Pre-made cocktails White Wine Craft Beer Imported Beer

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Page 1: State of the Wine Industry – Special Editiond24wuq6o951i2g.cloudfront.net/img/events/457735720/...Cocktail kit Spirit Mixer Pre-made cocktails White Wine Craft Beer Imported Beer

Thursday, May 21, 2020 9:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m. PDT

State of the Wine Industry –Special Edition

Page 2: State of the Wine Industry – Special Editiond24wuq6o951i2g.cloudfront.net/img/events/457735720/...Cocktail kit Spirit Mixer Pre-made cocktails White Wine Craft Beer Imported Beer

Speakers

2

Jeff BitterPresidentAllied Grape Growers

Amy HoopesPresidentWente Family Estates

Danny BragerSenior Vice PresidentNielsen Beverage Alcohol Practice

Paul LearyFounder & PrincipalAssemblage Consulting Group

Max HeinemannWine & Spirits Client ManagerNielsen CGA

Rob McMillanExecutive Vice President & FounderSilicon Valley Bank Wine Division

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0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Phone Club POS eCommerce

DtC: More Channel Shifting – A Separate ViewExisting Club Members Being Leaned on Heavily. eCommerce Accelerating

3

Date Phone Club & Subscription Tasting Room eCommerceJanuary 1st - March 13th 11.4% 48.6% 34.6% 5.3%March 20th to May 8th 14.1% 60.4% 6.9% 19.2%Change 2.7% 11.8% -27.7% 13.9%

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Exports3% Off-Premise

Wholesale18%

Lost Restaurant & Tasting Room

Sales44%

Mailing List & Subscriptions

10%

Wine Club23%

Phone & eCommerce

3%

View from Winery - Average Winery’s Channel Mix –Pre & Post S.I.P. Orders

4

March 20th, 2020Exports

2%Off-Premise Wholesale

20%

Restaurant

Tasting Room

5%

Mailing & Subscription

10%eCommerce

16%

Wine Club35%

Phone10%

8 Weeks to May 8th

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“Do you have an employee dedicated to analyzing your consumer data?”How valuable are client lists now?

5Source: SVB 2019 State of the Wine Industry Survey

Full-Time18%

No55%

Part-Time27%

Page 6: State of the Wine Industry – Special Editiond24wuq6o951i2g.cloudfront.net/img/events/457735720/...Cocktail kit Spirit Mixer Pre-made cocktails White Wine Craft Beer Imported Beer

D R I N K S O R D E R E D W I T H TA K E O U T / D E L I V E R Y

37%

42%

43%

44%

47%

47%

50%

51%

55%

60%

Neat Spirit

Dom Non-Craft Beer

Sparkling wine/Champagne

Cocktail kit

Spirit Mixer

Pre-made cocktails

White Wine

Craft Beer

Imported Beer

Red Wine

Have Ordered

NGCA COVID-19 IMPACT SURVEY APRIL 1 2020, SAMPLE SIZE: 159

27%

33%

35%

38%

39%

39%

40%

42%

42%

45%

Red Wine

Imported Beer

White Wine

Spirit Mixer

Pre-made cocktails

Craft Beer

Cocktail kit

Dom Non-Craft Beer

Sparkling wine/Champagne

Neat Spirit

Would Consider Ordering

*Consumers select have ordered, would consider ordering or neither per beverage

SOURCE: RESTAURANTRAK + CUSTOM CONSUMER RESEARCH

[6]

Page 7: State of the Wine Industry – Special Editiond24wuq6o951i2g.cloudfront.net/img/events/457735720/...Cocktail kit Spirit Mixer Pre-made cocktails White Wine Craft Beer Imported Beer

Y O U H A V E S A I D Y O U T Y P I C A L L Y D R I N K T H E F O L L O W I N G . W I L L Y O U D R I N K T H E S E M O R E O R L E S S F R E Q U E N T L Y W H E N R E T U R N I N G T O B A R S A N D R E S T A U R A N T S , C O M P A R E D T O P R I O R

T O C O V I D - 1 9 .

D R I N K S W H E N R E T U R N I N G T O B A R S A N D R E S TA U R A N T S

42%

41%

28%

21%

33%

26%

27%

25%

30%

23%

26%

24%

26%

21%

21%

22%

41%

48%

58%

62%

54%

56%

53%

57%

49%

55%

57%

56%

55%

64%

60%

62%

Cognac

Brandy

Gin

Liqueurs and cordials

Hard seltzers

Sparkling wine/Champagne

Rum

Tequila

Cocktails

Import beer

Craft beer

Whiskey

Vodka

White wine

Domestic non-craft beer

Red wine

More Frequently The Same

NGCA COVID-19 IMPACT SURVEY MAY 13 2020, SAMPLE SIZE: 1136SOURCE: RESTAURANTRAK + CUSTOM CONSUMER RESEARCH

40%

33%

31%

28%

28%

24%

22%

22%

18%

18%

14%

13%

11%

10%

8%

6%

% who drink category

[7]

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A look at Channels

Less than pre Covid-19

As often as pre Covid-19

More often than pre Covid-19

Premium Nightclubs 50% 44% 6%

Airport bars 50% 45% 6%

Stadiums 48% 47% 5%

Game-based/experiential bars 48% 47% 6%

Premium Bars 47% 47% 6%

Sports bars 46% 47% 6%

Casinos 46% 47% 7%

Brew pub/Tap rooms 45% 48% 6%

Groceraunts 44% 49% 6%

Neighborhood bars 44% 49% 8%

Fine dining restaurants 38% 53% 9%

Polished Casual restaurants 38% 55% 7%

Casual dining chains 35% 55% 10%

Independently owned restaurants 33% 53% 14%

[8]www.cga.co.uk

Thinking about when normal service in the following outlet types resume, which of the statements applies to you? I plan on visiting....

Page 9: State of the Wine Industry – Special Editiond24wuq6o951i2g.cloudfront.net/img/events/457735720/...Cocktail kit Spirit Mixer Pre-made cocktails White Wine Craft Beer Imported Beer

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0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%

52 w/e 2-29-2020

7-Mar-20 14-Mar-20 21-Mar-20 28-Mar-20 4-Apr-20 11-Apr-20 18-Apr-20 25-Apr-20 2-May-20 9-May-20 Covid-19YTD

Total U.S. – Nielsen Measured Off Premise ChannelsPercent change vs Year Ago (Dollars)

Total FMCG Alcohol Total Beer/FMB/Cider Total Wine Total Spirits

Spirits leads Off Premise retail growth, Wine closely behind, and Beer trailing

Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 through May 9, 2020

Pre-COVID

COVID-19 period

Value Volume

Wine +30.7% +27.7%

Spirits +35.6% +32.9%

Beer +21.2% +17.0%

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Page 11: State of the Wine Industry – Special Editiond24wuq6o951i2g.cloudfront.net/img/events/457735720/...Cocktail kit Spirit Mixer Pre-made cocktails White Wine Craft Beer Imported Beer

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DtC Wine Shipments

Source: Nielsen in collaboration with

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2017 2018 2019 Jan + Feb 2020 Mar + Apr 2020

Direct to Consumer Wine Shipments (total U.S.)Percent change vs YAG

Volume Value

Avg Price/bottle• -$4 March 2020 vs YAG• -$9 April 2020 vs YAG

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Hard Seltzers --

Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels

$-

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

$60,000,000

$70,000,000

$80,000,000

$90,000,000

1 W

/E 0

5/11

/19

1 W

/E 0

5/18

/19

1 W

/E 0

5/25

/19

1 W

/E 0

6/01

/19

1 W

/E 0

6/08

/19

1 W

/E 0

6/15

/19

1 W

/E 0

6/22

/19

1 W

/E 0

6/29

/19

1 W

/E 0

7/06

/19

1 W

/E 0

7/13

/19

1 W

/E 0

7/20

/19

1 W

/E 0

7/27

/19

1 W

/E 0

8/03

/19

1 W

/E 0

8/10

/19

1 W

/E 0

8/17

/19

1 W

/E 0

8/24

/19

1 W

/E 0

8/31

/19

1 W

/E 0

9/07

/19

1 W

/E 0

9/14

/19

1 W

/E 0

9/21

/19

1 W

/E 0

9/28

/19

1 W

/E 1

0/05

/19

1 W

/E 1

0/12

/19

1 W

/E 1

0/19

/19

1 W

/E 1

0/26

/19

1 W

/E 1

1/02

/19

1 W

/E 1

1/09

/19

1 W

/E 1

1/16

/19

1 W

/E 1

1/23

/19

1 W

/E 1

1/30

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1 W

/E 1

2/07

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1 W

/E 1

2/14

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1 W

/E 1

2/21

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1 W

/E 1

2/28

/19

1 W

/E 0

1/04

/20

1 W

/E 0

1/11

/20

1 W

/E 0

1/18

/20

1 W

/E 0

1/25

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1 W

/E 0

2/01

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1 W

/E 0

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1 W

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1 W

/E 0

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/E 0

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1 W

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1 W

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3/28

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1 W

/E 0

4/04

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1 W

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4/11

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1 W

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4/18

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1 W

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4/25

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1 W

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5/2/

20

Weekly Malt-based Hard Seltzer Dollar Sales

Current 52 weeks 1 Yr Ago 2 Yr Ago 3 Yr Ago 4 Yr Ago

• Now $2.3 Billion; approaching 10% of Beer category• Seltzer/Seltzer-like Ciders/Spirits/Wine – another $150MM

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Page 14: State of the Wine Industry – Special Editiond24wuq6o951i2g.cloudfront.net/img/events/457735720/...Cocktail kit Spirit Mixer Pre-made cocktails White Wine Craft Beer Imported Beer

2020 Allied Grape Growers Bunch Counts 2020 % Change % ChangeVariety and Location Bunch From FromWhites Count 2019 5-Year AvgChardonnay (Dist 11 & 17 - Lodi/Clarksburg) 74.0 -14.0% 2.8%Chardonnay (Dist 12 & 13 - San Joaquin Valley) 88.6 -15.1% -5.0%French Colombard (All San Joaquin Valley) 142.9 -5.3% 11.7%Muscat of Alexander - (All San Joaquin Valley) 65.4 -26.1% -5.1%Pinot Grigio - (All San Joaquin Valley, including Lodi) 91.1 -8.8% 0.2%Thompson Seedless - (San Joaquin Valley) 25.9 -19.9% -19.5%RedsBarbera 86.4 -35.2% -13.7%Cabernet Sauvignon (Dist 11 - Lodi) 87.0 -13.2% -7.4%Cabernet Sauvignon (Dist 12 & 13 - San Joaquin Valley) 95.7 -8.2% -1.7%Grenache (All San Joaquin Valley) 95.7 37.1% 17.3%Merlot (Dist 11 - Lodi) 80.8 -2.4% 9.0%Merlot (Dist 12 & 13 - San Joaquin Valley) 97.5 -4.4% 1.0%Petite Sirah - (All San Joaquin Valley, including Lodi) 52.2 3.5% -7.3%Rubired (All San Joaquin Valley) 185.2 4.5% 19.3%Syrah (All San Joaquin Valley) 131.2 15.0% 29.6%Zinfandel (Dist 11 - Lodi On wire) 56.5 -4.2% 9.6%Zinfandel (Dist 11 - Lodi Head trained) 47.6 -4.8% 5.3%Zinfandel (Dist 12 & 13 - San Joaquin Valley) 90.7 11.1% 16.1% 14

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Silicon Valley Bank©2020 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and of the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB). SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license.

This content is intended for US audiences only.This material, including without limitation to the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of SVB Financial Group, Silicon Valley Bank, or any of its affiliates.

The material is based in part on information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable but which has not been independently verified by us, and, as such, we do not represent the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice, nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision.

Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation, offer or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment, or to engage in any other transaction.

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Thank You