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Thursday, May 21, 2020 9:00 a.m. – 10:00 a.m. PDT
State of the Wine Industry –Special Edition
Speakers
2
Jeff BitterPresidentAllied Grape Growers
Amy HoopesPresidentWente Family Estates
Danny BragerSenior Vice PresidentNielsen Beverage Alcohol Practice
Paul LearyFounder & PrincipalAssemblage Consulting Group
Max HeinemannWine & Spirits Client ManagerNielsen CGA
Rob McMillanExecutive Vice President & FounderSilicon Valley Bank Wine Division
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Phone Club POS eCommerce
DtC: More Channel Shifting – A Separate ViewExisting Club Members Being Leaned on Heavily. eCommerce Accelerating
3
Date Phone Club & Subscription Tasting Room eCommerceJanuary 1st - March 13th 11.4% 48.6% 34.6% 5.3%March 20th to May 8th 14.1% 60.4% 6.9% 19.2%Change 2.7% 11.8% -27.7% 13.9%
Exports3% Off-Premise
Wholesale18%
Lost Restaurant & Tasting Room
Sales44%
Mailing List & Subscriptions
10%
Wine Club23%
Phone & eCommerce
3%
View from Winery - Average Winery’s Channel Mix –Pre & Post S.I.P. Orders
4
March 20th, 2020Exports
2%Off-Premise Wholesale
20%
Restaurant
Tasting Room
5%
Mailing & Subscription
10%eCommerce
16%
Wine Club35%
Phone10%
8 Weeks to May 8th
“Do you have an employee dedicated to analyzing your consumer data?”How valuable are client lists now?
5Source: SVB 2019 State of the Wine Industry Survey
Full-Time18%
No55%
Part-Time27%
D R I N K S O R D E R E D W I T H TA K E O U T / D E L I V E R Y
37%
42%
43%
44%
47%
47%
50%
51%
55%
60%
Neat Spirit
Dom Non-Craft Beer
Sparkling wine/Champagne
Cocktail kit
Spirit Mixer
Pre-made cocktails
White Wine
Craft Beer
Imported Beer
Red Wine
Have Ordered
NGCA COVID-19 IMPACT SURVEY APRIL 1 2020, SAMPLE SIZE: 159
27%
33%
35%
38%
39%
39%
40%
42%
42%
45%
Red Wine
Imported Beer
White Wine
Spirit Mixer
Pre-made cocktails
Craft Beer
Cocktail kit
Dom Non-Craft Beer
Sparkling wine/Champagne
Neat Spirit
Would Consider Ordering
*Consumers select have ordered, would consider ordering or neither per beverage
SOURCE: RESTAURANTRAK + CUSTOM CONSUMER RESEARCH
[6]
Y O U H A V E S A I D Y O U T Y P I C A L L Y D R I N K T H E F O L L O W I N G . W I L L Y O U D R I N K T H E S E M O R E O R L E S S F R E Q U E N T L Y W H E N R E T U R N I N G T O B A R S A N D R E S T A U R A N T S , C O M P A R E D T O P R I O R
T O C O V I D - 1 9 .
D R I N K S W H E N R E T U R N I N G T O B A R S A N D R E S TA U R A N T S
42%
41%
28%
21%
33%
26%
27%
25%
30%
23%
26%
24%
26%
21%
21%
22%
41%
48%
58%
62%
54%
56%
53%
57%
49%
55%
57%
56%
55%
64%
60%
62%
Cognac
Brandy
Gin
Liqueurs and cordials
Hard seltzers
Sparkling wine/Champagne
Rum
Tequila
Cocktails
Import beer
Craft beer
Whiskey
Vodka
White wine
Domestic non-craft beer
Red wine
More Frequently The Same
NGCA COVID-19 IMPACT SURVEY MAY 13 2020, SAMPLE SIZE: 1136SOURCE: RESTAURANTRAK + CUSTOM CONSUMER RESEARCH
40%
33%
31%
28%
28%
24%
22%
22%
18%
18%
14%
13%
11%
10%
8%
6%
% who drink category
[7]
A look at Channels
Less than pre Covid-19
As often as pre Covid-19
More often than pre Covid-19
Premium Nightclubs 50% 44% 6%
Airport bars 50% 45% 6%
Stadiums 48% 47% 5%
Game-based/experiential bars 48% 47% 6%
Premium Bars 47% 47% 6%
Sports bars 46% 47% 6%
Casinos 46% 47% 7%
Brew pub/Tap rooms 45% 48% 6%
Groceraunts 44% 49% 6%
Neighborhood bars 44% 49% 8%
Fine dining restaurants 38% 53% 9%
Polished Casual restaurants 38% 55% 7%
Casual dining chains 35% 55% 10%
Independently owned restaurants 33% 53% 14%
[8]www.cga.co.uk
Thinking about when normal service in the following outlet types resume, which of the statements applies to you? I plan on visiting....
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0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%
52 w/e 2-29-2020
7-Mar-20 14-Mar-20 21-Mar-20 28-Mar-20 4-Apr-20 11-Apr-20 18-Apr-20 25-Apr-20 2-May-20 9-May-20 Covid-19YTD
Total U.S. – Nielsen Measured Off Premise ChannelsPercent change vs Year Ago (Dollars)
Total FMCG Alcohol Total Beer/FMB/Cider Total Wine Total Spirits
Spirits leads Off Premise retail growth, Wine closely behind, and Beer trailing
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels; Total U.S. (Dollars) COVID-19 to Date; w/e March 7 through May 9, 2020
Pre-COVID
COVID-19 period
Value Volume
Wine +30.7% +27.7%
Spirits +35.6% +32.9%
Beer +21.2% +17.0%
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DtC Wine Shipments
Source: Nielsen in collaboration with
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2017 2018 2019 Jan + Feb 2020 Mar + Apr 2020
Direct to Consumer Wine Shipments (total U.S.)Percent change vs YAG
Volume Value
Avg Price/bottle• -$4 March 2020 vs YAG• -$9 April 2020 vs YAG
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Hard Seltzers --
Source: Nielsen Measured Off Premise Channels
$-
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
$60,000,000
$70,000,000
$80,000,000
$90,000,000
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20
Weekly Malt-based Hard Seltzer Dollar Sales
Current 52 weeks 1 Yr Ago 2 Yr Ago 3 Yr Ago 4 Yr Ago
• Now $2.3 Billion; approaching 10% of Beer category• Seltzer/Seltzer-like Ciders/Spirits/Wine – another $150MM
13
2020 Allied Grape Growers Bunch Counts 2020 % Change % ChangeVariety and Location Bunch From FromWhites Count 2019 5-Year AvgChardonnay (Dist 11 & 17 - Lodi/Clarksburg) 74.0 -14.0% 2.8%Chardonnay (Dist 12 & 13 - San Joaquin Valley) 88.6 -15.1% -5.0%French Colombard (All San Joaquin Valley) 142.9 -5.3% 11.7%Muscat of Alexander - (All San Joaquin Valley) 65.4 -26.1% -5.1%Pinot Grigio - (All San Joaquin Valley, including Lodi) 91.1 -8.8% 0.2%Thompson Seedless - (San Joaquin Valley) 25.9 -19.9% -19.5%RedsBarbera 86.4 -35.2% -13.7%Cabernet Sauvignon (Dist 11 - Lodi) 87.0 -13.2% -7.4%Cabernet Sauvignon (Dist 12 & 13 - San Joaquin Valley) 95.7 -8.2% -1.7%Grenache (All San Joaquin Valley) 95.7 37.1% 17.3%Merlot (Dist 11 - Lodi) 80.8 -2.4% 9.0%Merlot (Dist 12 & 13 - San Joaquin Valley) 97.5 -4.4% 1.0%Petite Sirah - (All San Joaquin Valley, including Lodi) 52.2 3.5% -7.3%Rubired (All San Joaquin Valley) 185.2 4.5% 19.3%Syrah (All San Joaquin Valley) 131.2 15.0% 29.6%Zinfandel (Dist 11 - Lodi On wire) 56.5 -4.2% 9.6%Zinfandel (Dist 11 - Lodi Head trained) 47.6 -4.8% 5.3%Zinfandel (Dist 12 & 13 - San Joaquin Valley) 90.7 11.1% 16.1% 14
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