State Of The Nation

State Of The Nation Compiled By Kevin Lee of Smart Property Adviser

www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au E: [email protected] T: (02) 9980 1311 M: 0416 083 995

Disclaimer: This document is a compilation of recent articles published in the media. The media sources are quoted beneath their respecti ve article

capture. Smart Property Adviser does not claim to be the author of any articles included within this document.

Quality Starts With Design

If you are in the habit of

glossing through the real estate pages you will have noticed that real estate agents are quick to highlight

in their advertisements if a house is "architect designed"

or "award-winning." This is for good reason. Quality design and

innovation stays with a house for its life and this often translates into additional emotional appeal for a prospective purchaser and improved resale value. 5 March 2013. More.

Buying Early Can Have Its Advantages: Off The Plan Not only can you often get first pick if you get in early, but there can be sound reasons for buying property off the plan. Before a property is constructed developers look for presales to give to the bank so it will provide funding for construction. 6 March

2013. More. How To Maximise Rent

As competition hots up in the market, landlords will need to up the ante to compete for tenants. Increasing supply of rental property can leave owners sitting high and dry as tenants pick

the eyes out of the market. You are in it to make money. You want to attract and keep the best possible tenant at the best possible rent – even in the quiet times. Here are 10 simple things an investor can do to maximise rent. 5 March 2013. More. Zoning Out The Flats

NO-GO precincts for the building of flats and apartments will be created in certain residential areas under a

sweeping reform of state planning zones. But it will be easier to open medical centres and convenience shops near

houses as a way to improve services for communities. 6 March 2013. More First-Home Buyer Numbers Fall To Near Eight Year Low Despite Improving Housing Affordability: REIA

Improving housing affordability is failing to encourage first-home buyers to step onto the property ladder – in fact the exact

opposite is happening. The report found that first-home buyers made up just 16.5% of the market over the December quarter compared to 19% in the September quarter. 6 March 2013. More. Adelaide Tops Most Liveable City List

South Australia’s capital has, once again, ranked number one for

liveability in the My City: The People’s Verdict report. The report, prepared by the Property Council of Australia, surveyed 5842

residents across the nation and looked at 17 attributes that define good cities including design, function, services and culture. The survey encompassed all capital cities as well as Newcastle, Geelong

and Wollongong. 5 March 2013. More. Prestige Markets To See Growth Prices in Sydney’s waterfront property markets look likely to rise this year as buyers return, according to a senior economist. Dr Andrew Wilson, senior economist at Australian Property Monitors (APM),

told Smart Property Investment's sister publication, Real Estate Business, that property prices had been flatlining in the past 12 months due to low confidence and a risk-averse market. 4 March 2013. More. House Prices Best In Three Years

Australian homes are the most

affordable in three years, thanks to rising incomes and falling interest rates. The Real Estate Institute of

Australia's (REIA) Housing Affordability Report shows that housing affordability improved in the December quarter, with the

proportion of income required to meet loan repayments decreasing by 1.4 percentage points to 30.4 per cent. 6 March 2013. More. Renovation Stress Relationships and renos sometimes go together l ike a delicate glass light fitting and a sledgehammer. It all sounds glamourous – ripping

out the kitchen or bathroom, adding that long-talked-about extension, or reconfiguring the layout. But when you add the layer of stress that renovating can create onto the already multi -faceted challenges of l ife – work, mortgage, and quite often, young kids, it

sometimes doesn't take much to tip a relationship on its edge – and it might not even be the renovation itself. 5 March 2013. More. No Surprises In The Reserve’s Decision After a robust start to the property year, experts say it is no surprise that the Reserve Bank kept the cash rate steady at 3 per cent.

Australian Property Monitors senior economist Andrew Wilson went further to say those waiting on further rate cuts this year might be disappointed. "If the economy starts to move forward reasonably well this year, notwithstanding what happens in housing, I do think

the potential direction for the next movement in interest rates is up," he said. 5 March 2013. More. TAS Poised For Massive Economic Boost Plans by telecom giant Vodafone to downscale its offshore presence and double their Tasmanian workforce has poised the island state

for a massive economic boost. Mark Riley, sales manager at Petrusma Property, a Tasmanian-based real estate company, believes the surge of employment would have a positive impact on the property market in Kingston, and bring more people to the area

for work. 4 March 2013. More.

Issue # 029 March 8, 2013

http://www.couriermail.com.au/realestate/investing/quality-starts-with-design/story-fndboir2-1226590663496

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/developments/buying-early-can-have-its-advantages-off-the-plan/2013030459696?utm_source=po&utm_medium=aida&utm_campaign=developments&utm_source=Property+Observer+List&utm_campaign=6d22d27401-March_6_1_29_2013&utm_medium=email

http://matusikmissive.com.au/2013/03/05/how-to-maximise-rent/

http://www.couriermail.com.au/realestate/investing/zoning-out-the-flats/story-fndboir2-1226591275217

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/first-home-buyers/first-home-buyer-numbers-fall-to-near-eight-year-low-despite-improving-housing-affordability-reia?utm_source=po&utm_medium=aida&utm_campaign=news&utm_source=Property+Observer+List&utm_campaign=6d22d27401-March_6_1_29_2013&utm_medium=email

http://apimagazine.com.au/api-online/news/2013/03/adelaide-tops-most-liveable-city-list

http://spionline.com.au/home/11530-prestige-markets-to-see-growth

http://www.couriermail.com.au/realestate/house-prices-best-in-three-years/story-fnczc1bg-1226591435242

http://smh.domain.com.au/blogs/talking-property/renovation-stress-20130305-2fiix.html

http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/no-surprises-in-the-reserves-decision-20130305-2fie3.html

http://spionline.com.au/home/11531-tas-poised-for-massive-economic-boost

State Of The Nation Continued…

E: [email protected] T: (02) 9980 1311 M: 0416 083 995 Disclaimer: This document is a compilation of recent articles published in the media. The media sources are quoted beneath their respective article

capture. Smart Property Adviser does not claim to be the author of any articles included within this document.

www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au

If you would like to voice your opinion on any article you have read in the State Of The Nation Newsletters or elsewhere that has concerned you, please send the article and your opinion on it to us and we will include it in a future issue of the State Of The Nation. Send your opinion to [email protected]

Suburb in Focus

Real Estate’s Sleeping Giant Awakens

The sleepy upper north shore is showing signs of recovery this year, with

sellers increasingly confident in taking their prestige properties to

market. On Saturday, the upper north shore

hosted more auctions than any other area. Almost 80 properties were scheduled for auction. 3 March 2013. More. Housing Approval Soar In NSW NSW is seeing the highest new home approvals over a 12-month

period in seven years, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics have shown. The figures have shown 3,503 NSW homes were approved in January, which planning and infrastructure

minister Brad Hazzard says is evidence of remarkable new housing recovery across the state. 5 March 2013. More. A Wealthy Future Is Within Reach

It needn't be a pipedream; mapping out l ife's finances can be tough but there are tricks to constructing a healthy outcome. Saving more and spending less aren't the only ways to wealth,

though they sure help. Even then, how you save and what you buy will eventually count for more. 6 March 2013. More.

Apartments Fast-Tracked In Townsville

Inner-city living has attracted

growing buyer interest in Townsville with the fast-tracking of construction on one multi -

million dollar project and the announcement of plans for another two-tower development. Work has started on the fourth

residential stage of Honeycombes Property Group's $450 million masterplanned Central development while developers including the Morris Property Group last week announced plans for a $120

mill ion CBD project. 4 March 2013. More. Activity Surges 30 Per Cent In Two Hotspots Investor activity in Perth and Darwin soared more than 30 per cent during 2013 compared to the same time last year, according

to an Australian tax depreciation company. Paul Bennion, managing director of DEPPRO, said the number of tax depreciation reports undertaken in the two capital cities increased by more than 30 per cent during the first months of

this year compared to the same period in 2012. 5 March 2013. More. Multi-Billion Investments To Lift Gold Coast Precinct

One precinct has recorded one of the highest amounts of

development spending on the Gold Coast, according to new research from Colliers International. The figures show that the Robina precinct is planned for $7.7 billion worth of development projects, not only in the suburb of Robina, but also in Burleigh

Heads, Burleigh Waters, Burleigh West, Elanora, Palm Beach, Reedy Creek, Tallebudgera and Varsity Lakes. 6 March 2013. More.

An "Unfair Advantage" - How To Become A Suburb Expert

After you've decided on the type of property that suits your purpose [owner occupied or investment] and fits your budget you need to choose two or three suburbs that you prefer. But when making the final decision on the suburb you will actually invest in, it is vitally

important that you become an expert on that suburb. The only true way you can become a suburb expert is if you spend time in the areas you’re considering. 1 March 2013. More.

Controversy Corner

Doctor Fights Action Over Mother’s Death A doctor who lives with a strict Christian-based religious group in northern NSW had several days to take his mother to hospital for potentially life-saving treatment before she died, a court has been

told. Dr Chris Maendel was a senior figure and resident doctor of the Bruderhof, an Amish-style community who live near Inverell, when in March 2010 his mother Irene unexpectedly collapsed on their property, Danthonia, while holidaying from the US. 6 March 2013.

More.

Some Parting Advice

“People have their own natural comfort zones, which can most often only be expanded through education.”

In this week’s State Of The Nation, we feature the suburb of Albury,

NSW 2640. The City of Albury has an active economy, and a vibrant

cultural scene. Albury sits at the centre of the Sydney-Melbourne-

Adelaide triangle, where 75% of all Australians live. The city has

residential options to match lifestyle preferenc es. According to the

latest data, the median house price in Albury is $267,000 (Source:

REINSW Property Profile March 2012).

In this week’s newsletter, we include Albury’s On The Market

Properties; a Suburb Statistics Report; and Population and

Household Forecasts.

Until Next Time... Kevin Lee

http://www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au/

mailto:[email protected]

http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/real-estates-sleeping-giant-awakens-20130302-2fcyf.html

http://spionline.com.au/home/11535-housing-approvals-soar-in-nsw

http://www.smh.com.au/money/a-wealthy-future-is-within-reach-20130305-2fi6t.html

http://www.couriermail.com.au/realestate/buying/apartments-fast-tracked-in-townsville/story-fndboawi-1226589800047

http://spionline.com.au/home/11534-activity-surge-30-per-cent-in-two-hotspots

http://spionline.com.au/home/11540-multi-billion-investments-to-lift-gold-coast-precinct

http://spionline.com.au/blog/latest-blogs/11528-an-unfair-advantage-how-to-become-a-suburb-expert

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/doctor-fights-action-over-mothers-death-20130305-2fj6i.html

ALBURY, NSW 2640

Properties On The Market

3/5/13 Australian Property Monitors, Property Data

Just Listed

21 Abbott Dr, Albury House 5 3 3

For Sale $985,000

Sale type Private Treaty Land Size 8392sqm

First Listed 23/02/13 (10 days)

Listed by Wood Real Estate

567 Affleck St, Albury House 3 1 1

For Sale $328,000



Listed by Chapman Gould &May Real Estate - A

Lot 1 Anna Court Magnolia Park Est, Albury House 4 2 2

For Sale $343,487

Sale type Private Treaty


Listed by Simonds Homes -WODONGA

Lot 12 Anna Court Magnolia Park Est,Albury

House 3 2 2

For Sale $308,487



Listed by Simonds Homes -WODONGA

Lot 13 Annika Place & Jackies Rst, Albury House 4 2 2

For Sale $396,786



Listed by GJ Gardner Homes -ALBURY

4/183 Baranbale Wy, Albury Unit 2 2 1

For Sale $215,000



Listed by PJ Murphy RealEstate Pty Ltd

apmpropertydata.com.au/Prospect/FindProspectsResults.aspx

3/5/13 Australian Property Monitors, Property Data

9 Bowna Park Drive Tabletop , Albury House 4 2 6

For Sale




60 Chad Terrace Norris Pk, Albury House 4 2 2

For Sale $495,000




64 Dight Street Jindera Via , Albury House 4 2 8

For Sale $649,000



Listed by Michael GeorgiouReal Estate

2 Elizabeth St, Albury House 4 2 8

For Sale



Listed by Carrick Real Estate

747 Jones St, Albury House 3 1

For Sale

Sale type Auction Land Size 724sqm

Auction Date 23/03/2013

Listed by Ray White Albury Owner Wyld

1/681 MacAuley St, Albury Townhouse 3 2 2

For Sale $395,000



Listed by S&L Albury Owner Hehir, Hehir

559 Moffat St, Albury House 3 1 3

For Sale $720,000



Listed by No Agent Property

2/398 Paul Av, Albury Unit 2 1 1

For Sale $234,900




2/398 Paul Avenue Quicks Hl, Albury Unit 2 1 2

For Sale $234,900

apmpropertydata.com.au/Prospect/FindProspectsResults.aspx

http://apmpropertydata.com.au/Search/PropertyDetails.aspx?ActivityId=34852813&AddressId=46249112&State=NSW









ALBURY, NSW 2640

Suburb Statistics Report

SUBURB STATISTICS REPORT | 1

Suburb StatisticsALBURY

HOUSE STATISTICSThe following house statistics relate to Albury. Statistical information is obtained from Residex Pty Limited, unless otherwise specified.

Area Albury

Median Value In 2011, the median (i.e. the middle number in a series) value of houses in this area was $344,000.

The current median value of houses in this area is $386,500.

Over the last 10 years, the median value has been as follows:


Capital Growth During the last three years the capital growth in house prices was 13.9%. The average rate of growth over the last 10 years for this area was 5.4%.

Period Albury Sydney Metro

Growth for the year ended December 2012

12.4% 4.9%


-4.4% -2.5%


5.9% 6.5%

Rental Yield Over the last 10 years, the average rental yield for houses for this area was 4.6% (i.e. a house worth $100 would attract $4.59 of rent per annum).

Last year, the median rental yield for this area was 5.3%.

Last quarter, the median rental yield for this area was 5.6%.

Total Returns The total return for houses over the last 10 years in this area was 10.3%.


House Sales The following chart shows the number of house sales per annum:

House Sales The following chart shows the number of house sales over the past 12 months by sale price:


Suburb StatisticsALBURY

UNIT STATISTICSThe following unit statistics relate to Albury. Statistical information is obtained from Residex Pty Limited, unless otherwise specified.

Area Albury

Median Value In 2011, the median (i.e. the middle number in a series) value of units in this area was $220,000.

The current median value of units in this area is $218,500.

Over the last 10 years, the median value has been as follows:


Capital Growth During the last three years the capital growth in unit prices was 2.1%. The average rate of growth over the last 10 years for this area was 5.0%.

Period Albury Sydney Metro


-0.8% -0.3%


-4.6% 2.2%


7.5% 9.4%

Rental Yield Over the last 10 years, the average rental yield for units for this area was 4.8% (i.e. a unit worth $100 would attract $4.79 of rent per annum).

Last year, the median rental yield for this area was 5.7%.

Last quarter, the median rental yield for this area was 5.4%.

Total Returns The total return for units over the last 10 years in this area was 10.1%.


Unit Sales The following chart shows the number of unit sales per annum:

Unit Sales The following chart shows the number of unit sales over the past 12 months by sale price:


Disclaimer

The Parties making available this report to you give no warranties nor accept any liability for any decision made to invest, divest, or not act as a consequence of the use of this report. The Parties believe the statements, information, calculations, data and graphs contained herein to be correct and not misleading but give no warranty in relation thereto and expressly disclaim any liability for any loss or damage which may arise from any person acting or deciding not to act partly or wholly on the basis of any such statements, information, recommendations, calculations, data or graphs.

The Parties acknowledge and operate in a manner which complies with the Privacy Act of 1988, privacy and personal Information Protection Acts relevant for the State jurisdiction of where this property is located.

The Parties also acknowledge and operate in a manner which complies with any other state's legislation which is applicable to privacy and regulations made under those acts as amended from time to time. The Parties will not used Licensed Data or Licensed Data Products for Direct Marketing. By receiving this Report you are also obliged to be governed by these Acts and principles.

Material published in this Report is protected by the same laws of copyright which apply to books, videos and music. The right to 'copy' always remains with the owner of the material. Unless expressly stated otherwise, you are not permitted to copy, republish or alter anything you find in this report without the express permission of The Parties.

By receiving this report you are taken to have acknowledged that it is being prepared with the assistance of products and services supplied by Residex Pty Limited and you are also taken to not only have agreed to these terms, but also all other terms specified in the websites of The Parties.

The information provided in this report by Residex contains property sales information (LPI

information) provided under licence from Land and Property Information. The information so provided is based on the LPI information last received before the date of this report.

Residex is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by Land and Property Information.

ALBURY, NSW 2640

Population And Household

Forecasts

POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD FORECASTS

forecast.id

forecast.id

Albury City Council

Albury City

Albury City Council population and household forecasts are designed to informcommunity groups, Council, investors, business, students and the general public.

Forecasts have been produced for the years, 2006 to 2031.

The data in this report was last reviewed and updated on 10/12/2012.

Contents:

Summary & key results 3Key drivers of change 3

Population summary 5

How many will live here in future? 7

How old will we be? 9

What type of households will we live in? 10

Assumptions 11Residential development 11

Births and deaths 12

Non-private dwellings 13

Migration 14

Detailed data 15Age structure 15

Households 17

Residential development 19

Components of population change 20

Supporting info 22What factors contribute to population change? 22

How did we do the forecasts? 24

Household & suburb life cycle 27

Data notes 29

Glossary 30

References 33

DISCLAIMER: Whilst all due care has been taken to ensure the content of this report is accurate and Current, there may be errors or omissions in it and no legal responsibility is accepted for the information and opinions in this website.

Copyright © id.consulting pty ltd - www.id.com.au 2012

Date created: 11/12/2012

2006 Population and household forecasts Albury City Council

Page 2

Summary & key results

Key drivers of change

Historical migration flows, Albury City, 2001 to 2006

Note: The migration flows depicted above do not represent future or forecast migration flows. The arrows represent

migration flows to the LGA/SLA as a whole and do not indicate an origin or destination for any specific localities within

the LGA/SLA.

Albury is located in southern New South Wales, about 460 kilometres from Sydney and 260 kilometres from

Melbourne. The City, along with its near neighbour, Wodonga in Victoria, is located in a strategic location on the main

Sydney-Melbourne freeway and railway. The history of residential development in Albury dates back to the 1830s,

when a town was established at the major river crossing. The town became an important river port, shipping wool,

wheat and wine along the Murray to South Australia. The opening of the railway to Melbourne saw the end of the river

transport. The town has expanded rapidly in the post war period, assisted in part by the Albury-Wodonga region

being designated as a national growth centre in the 1970s. In this period, a number of manufacturing industries were

attracted to the area and the subsequent economic development has seen the population more than double between

the 1940s and 1980s, reaching 37,000 by 1981. In this period many new suburbs were developed such as Lavington,

North Albury and in later years Thurgoona.

Albury has had a slightly increasing population through the 1990s, with much of this growth sourced from migrants

from the surrounding rural and regional LGAs. Similar to most rural and regional centres, the City also loses persons

to Melbourne in net terms, most notably young adults moving to study or to access employment. The City also lost

persons in net terms to South East Queensland over this period.

It is assumed that a number of these patterns will continue into the future, most notably flows into the City from

surrounding areas. The migration flows within Albury are expected to reflect where the supply of residential land is

located (destination) and where young people have grown up and left home (source).

With the progressive residential development of the City, the availability of land for development and the range of


Page 3

land uses, areas have developed different roles within the housing market. The central areas (Albury (Central), East

Albury and South Albury) attract a large number of persons in their late teens and early twenties, attracted in part by

the availability of rental accommodation, employment and entertainment. Some areas, such as Glenroy, Lavington

and West Albury play a more traditional family role and are expected to attract families with children while

experiencing some net loss of young adults and school leavers. New greenfield areas in Thurgoona are expected to

attract a range of young and mature families seeking to upgrade their dwelling or establishing new households.

Thurgoona is also likely to attract persons in their late teens following the establishment of student accommodation on

the Sturt University Campus. The more rural parts of the City are also attractive to families seeking a rural

environment and a new lifestyle. This variety of function and role of the small areas in the Albury means that

population outcomes differ significantly across the municipality. There are also significant differences in the supply of

residential property within the City which will also have a major influence in structuring different population and

household futures over the next five to twenty years. Large new greenfield opportunities have been identified in

Thurgoona. There is also development expected in Hamilton Valley and Springdale Heights. There are likely to be

other greenfield, rural residential and most notably infill development opportunities throughout the City, albeit at lower

levels than the major growth areas identified above. Infill development is expected to be concentrated in existing

areas such as Lavington, Albury (Central) and North Albury


Page 4


Population summary

In 2031, the population of Albury City will be 68,570, an increase of 20,101 persons (41.47%) from 2006. This

represents an average annual growth rate of 1.40%.

Albury City Council's areas Forecast year

Change between 2006 and 2031

Location Area name 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 number

Avg. annual

% change

Albury City 48,469 49,477 54,355 59,495 64,005 68,570 20,101 1.40

Albury (Central) 5,417 5,134 5,346 5,495 5,963 6,478 1,061 0.72

East Albury 6,112 6,332 6,657 6,893 7,241 7,607 1,495 0.88

Glenroy 3,027 3,077 3,462 4,073 4,501 4,754 1,727 1.82

Hamilton Valley 323 361 658 957 1,224 1,488 1,165 6.30

Lavington 12,861 12,445 12,943 13,451 13,927 14,403 1,542 0.45

North Albury 6,591 6,234 6,396 6,621 6,881 7,148 557 0.33


Page 5

Population numbers in forecast.id for the 2006 base year are derived on Estimated Resident Population from the Australian Bureau of

Statistics. These differ from (and are usually higher than) Census counts as they factor in population missed by the Census, and

population overseas on Census night. They are generally considered a more accurate measure of population size than Census counts

South Albury 1,470 1,417 1,446 1,479 1,512 1,550 80 0.21

Springdale Heights 1,774 1,993 2,427 2,778 3,104 3,476 1,702 2.73

Thurgoona - Rural East 6,595 8,113 10,529 13,201 15,045 17,018 10,423 3.86

West Albury - Splitters Creek 4,299 4,371 4,491 4,547 4,607 4,648 349 0.31


Page 6


Albury City

Albury is located in southern New South Wales, about 460 kilometres from Sydney and 260 kilometres from

Melbourne. Albury is bounded by Greater Hume Shire in the north-west, north and north-east, and the City of

Wodonga in the south. Albury includes the suburbs and rural localities of Albury (Central), East Albury, Ettamogah,

Glenroy, Hamilton Valley, Hume Weir, Jindera (part), Lake Hume Village, Lavington, North Albury, South Albury,

Splitters Creek, Springdale Heights, Table Top (part), Thurgoona and West Albury.

How many will live here in future? - Albury City

This summary analyses data for the period 2006 to 2021, as the short to medium term is likely to be the most

accurate and useful forecast information for immediate planning purposes. Please note that this data is

available for all years between 2006 and 2031.

In 2006, the total population of Albury City was estimated at 48,469 people. It is expected to experience an

increase of over 11,000 people to 59,495 by 2021, at an average annual growth rate of 1.38% per annum over

15 years. This is based on an increase of over 4,900 households during the period, with the average number

of persons per household falling from 2.43 to 2.37 by 2021.

Albury CityForecast year

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Population 48,469 49,477 54,355 59,495 64,005 68,570

Change in Population (5yrs) 1,008 4,878 5,140 4,510 4,565

Average Annual Change (%) 0.41 1.9 1.82 1.47 1.39

Households 19,573 20,618 22,538 24,547 26,425 28,338

Average Household Size (persons) 2.43 2.34 2.35 2.37 2.37 2.37

Population in non private dwellings 962 1,257 1,298 1,339 1,380 1,421

Dwellings 20,386 21,775 23,763 25,832 27,795 29,794

Dwelling occupancy rate 96.01 94.69 94.84 95.03 95.07 95.11


Page 7


Page 8


How old will we be?

In 2006, the most populous age group in Albury City was 15-19 year olds, with 3,767 persons. In 2021 the most

populous forecast age group will continue to be 15-19 year olds, with 4,302 persons.

The number of people aged under 15 is forecast to increase by 1,949 (19.7%), representing a rise in the

proportion of the population to 19.9%. The number of people aged over 65 is expected to increase by 2,783

(43.1%), and represent 15.5% of the population by 2021.

The age group which is forecast to have the largest proportional increase (relative to its population size) by

2021 is 70-74 year olds, who are forecast to increase by 65.8% to 2,369 persons.


Page 9


What type of households will we live in?

In 2006, the dominant household type in Albury City was Couples without dependents, which accounted for

27.4% of all households.

The main changes in household type between 2006 and 2021 are forecast to be:

The largest increase is forecast to be in Lone person households, which will increase by 1,635 households,

comprising 28.4% of all households, compared to 27.3% in 2006.

In contrast Other families is forecast to increase by 52 households, to comprise 1.8% of all households in 2021,

compared to 2.0% in 2006.


Page 10

Assumptions

Residential development

Principal forecast land assumptions for the period 2007-2011 are based on 2011 Census dwelling counts. Post

census:

● Thurgoona - Rural East - 3,376 additional dwellings ● Springdale Heights - 1,148 additional dwellings ● Lavington - 935 additional dwellings ● Glenroy - 740 additional dwellings ● Albury (Central) - 674 additional dwellings ● East Albury - 674 additional dwellings ● Hamilton Valley - 575 additional dwellings ● North Albury - 503 additional dwellings ● West Albury - Splitters Creek - 115 additional dwellings ● South Albury - 82 additional dwellings


Page 11

Assumptions

Births and deaths

Fertility (birth) rates:

The forecast number of births in Albury City is a reflection on the fertility rates assumed for small areas within

Albury City. These rates are derived from historic age-specific birth rates in the area, modified based on the

forecast age structure at each year of the forecast.

Death rates

The forecast number of deaths in Albury City is a reflection on the death rates assumed for small areas. For

historical years, this will equal the number of deaths published by the ABS, where this information was available

at the time of forecasting. These rates are based on historical estimates for Albury City, which have been

extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 and over).

Although women are still forecast to outlive men, the increase in expectation of life over time for men is

expected to be higher.


Page 12

Assumptions

Non-private dwellings

963 people were estimated to be living in non-private dwellings in Albury City in 2006. Residential non-private

dwellings include aged care facilities as well as defence force facilities, hospitals, prisons, staff quarters and

boarding houses. The number of persons in non-private dwellings in Albury City is expected to increase to

1,339 persons in 2021 and 1,421 persons in 2031.


Page 13

Assumptions

Migration

Migration assumptions influenced by:

● Migration profile from 2006-2011 based on modelling to match 2011 Census based Estimated Resident Population (ERP) by age.

● Between 2006-2011 there was little growth through migration despite an increase in residential development. New dwellings were accessed by homeleavers from within the City, and any inward migration was countered by a similar (or greater) level of out migration in particular age groups. Overall the City lost younger adults (20-29 years). leaving home and moving to metropolitan areas for increased employment, education or employment opportunities, and 'empty-nesters' (45-59 years)

● From 2011 onwards: ● Gain of family households (0-14 and 30-44 year olds) attracted to new housing being provided in the

growth areas ● A loss of young adults in the 2006-2011 period, id expected to turn to a small gain owing to the level of

development opportunity ● Small loss of empty-nesters (55-64 years) ● Little net change through migration in retirees and older people (65-74 years).


Page 14

Detailed data

Age structure

Forecast age structure, Albury City (Persons)

2006 2021 2031 Change

Age group number % number % number %2006 to

2031

0-4 years 3,151 6.5 3,834 6.4 4,341 6.3 1,190

5-9 years 3,205 6.6 3,938 6.6 4,489 6.5 1,284

10-14 years 3,520 7.3 4,053 6.8 4,636 6.8 1,116

15-19 years 3,767 7.8 4,302 7.2 5,002 7.3 1,235

20-24 years 3,760 7.8 4,169 7.0 4,829 7.0 1,069

25-29 years 3,170 6.5 3,979 6.7 4,496 6.6 1,326

30-34 years 3,047 6.3 4,051 6.8 4,544 6.6 1,497

35-39 years 3,270 6.7 4,178 7.0 4,751 6.9 1,481

40-44 years 3,277 6.8 4,035 6.8 4,766 7.0 1,489

45-49 years 3,546 7.3 3,799 6.4 4,607 6.7 1,061

50-54 years 3,251 6.7 3,522 5.9 4,186 6.1 935

55-59 years 2,897 6.0 3,263 5.5 3,754 5.5 857

60-64 years 2,154 4.4 3,131 5.3 3,344 4.9 1,190

65-69 years 1,768 3.6 2,742 4.6 3,026 4.4 1,258

70-74 years 1,429 2.9 2,369 4.0 2,715 4.0 1,286

75-79 years 1,391 2.9 1,746 2.9 2,220 3.2 829

80-84 years 1,028 2.1 1,289 2.2 1,650 2.4 622

85 years and over 841 1.7 1,094 1.8 1,214 1.8 373

Total Persons 48,472 100.0 59,494 100.0 68,570 100.0 20,098


Page 15


Page 16

Detailed data

Households

Forecast households, Albury City

2006 2021 2031 Change

Type number % number % number %2006 to

2031

Couples without dependents 5,366 27.4 6,820 27.8 7,925 28.0 2,559

Couple families with dependents

5,314 27.2 6,621 27.0 7,743 27.3 2,429

One parent family 2,209 11.3 2,571 10.5 2,965 10.5 756

Other families 397 2.0 449 1.8 515 1.8 118

Lone person households 5,339 27.3 6,974 28.4 7,916 27.9 2,577

Group households 945 4.8 1,112 4.5 1,276 4.5 331

Total households 19,570 100.0 24,547 100.0 28,340 100.0 8,770


Page 17


Page 18

Detailed data

Residential development

Residential development and structural private dwellings, Albury City

YearDwelling

commencements

Structural private dwellings

(inc. commencements)

% change

from previous

year

2007 277 20,664 1.4

2008 277 20,942 1.3

2009 277 21,219 1.3

2010 277 21,496 1.3

2011 277 21,773 1.3

2012 289 22,062 1.3

2013 378 22,440 1.7

2014 436 22,876 1.9

2015 444 23,320 1.9

2016 441 23,761 1.9

2017 432 24,193 1.8

2018 420 24,613 1.7

2019 410 25,023 1.7

Residential development and structural private dwellings, Albury City

YearDwelling

commencements

Structural private dwellings

(inc. commencements)

% change

from previous

year

2020 407 25,430 1.6

2021 400 25,830 1.6

2022 398 26,228 1.5

2023 393 26,621 1.5

2024 386 27,007 1.4

2025 392 27,399 1.5

2026 394 27,793 1.4

2027 397 28,190 1.4

2028 397 28,587 1.4

2029 401 28,988 1.4

2030 402 29,390 1.4

2031 402 29,792 1.4


Page 19

Detailed data

Components of population change

Components of population change, Albury City

Forecast period

2007 to 2011 2012 to 2016 2017 to 2021 2022 to 2026 2027 to 2031

Births 3,070 3,096 3,435 3,688 3,919

Deaths 1,769 2,010 2,099 2,228 2,377

Net Migration -589 3,752 3,763 3,012 2,982

Net Population Change 1,006 4,879 5,139 4,512 4,564


Page 20


Page 21

Supporting info

What factors contribute to population change?

At the small area level, the primary drivers of population change are the age structure of the existing population, the

housing markets attracted to and away from an area and their associated demographic characteristics (fertility

patterns, household types etc.) and the supply of dwellings and mix of housing stock in the area.

Dwelling additions

The addition of dwellings is the major driver of population growth, providing opportunities for new households (such

as young people leaving the family home and divorces) or households relocating from other areas.

Current age structure

The age structure of the local population impacts on Albury City's household types and size, the likelihood of the local

population having children and to die, as well as the propensity for people to move. Age specific propensities for a

population to have children or die are applied to each small area's base population. An older population will have

fewer births, more deaths, while a younger population will have vice versa.

Birth rates

Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas

having very low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing,

with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all. This can have a large impact on the

population profile with comparatively fewer children than in previous periods.

Death rates

Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been

changing with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men gaining on women's greater life chances.

Migration

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. While births and deaths are relatively easy

to predict due to reliable age specific behaviour, migration is volatile, often changing due to housing market

preferences, economic opportunities and changing household circumstances. Migration patterns vary across

Australia and change across time, but most moves tend to be short and incremental in nature. Regional areas have


Page 22

larger moves due to the distances between towns and cities, where people often move for economic reasons, mainly

the availability of employment or education and training opportunities.

The most mobile age groups in the population are the young adults. They tend to move to attend educational

institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. It is for this reason that young people often move the

greatest distances and sometimes move against pre-established patterns. Market research has shown that empty

nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation if appropriate and affordable alternative housing is

supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.


Page 23

Supporting info

How did we do the forecasts?

Approach

The diagram below describes the general approach used by .id in its population and household forecasts. An

analysis of the current population and household structure often reveals the role and function of an area and the

degree to which an area may be going through some form of demographic transition.

Demographic changes, such as birth, death and migration rates are applied to the base population. At the same time,

scrutiny of urban development drivers is undertaken (residential development opportunities, vacancy rates etc.). The

combination of varied assumptions about these inputs results in forecast population and households by type.

Modelling process

The modelling process used for producing the small-area forecasts is based on a 'bottom-up' approach, with all

assumptions being derived from a local perspective. The components of the model are derived exclusively from

housing and demographic assumptions. The drivers of the forecasts are predominantly based on levels of new

residential development and demographic assumptions, such as in and out migration rates from the local areas. The

diagram below describes the detail of the modelling process used by .id in its population and household forecasts.


Page 24

The population forecasts are based on a combination of three statistical models. They include a cohort component

model, a housing unit model and a household propensity model. Each of the models has a series of inputs, which

when linked to the other models gives the forecast outputs. The models are further explained below.

Cohort Component Model

The cohort component model is a standard demographic model used for population forecasts. It takes a base

population by single year of age and sex and makes assumptions about future levels of births, deaths and migration,

with the result being a forecast population by age and sex.

Each year the population ages by one year, with additions to population through in-migration and births. Births are

derived by multiplying age specific fertility rates of women aged 15-44 by the female population in these age groups

for all years during the forecast period. The population decreases are based on out-migration and deaths. Deaths

are derived by multiplying age and sex specific mortality rates for all age groups for all years during the forecast

period.

In and out migration is based on multiplying the population in each age group by a migration matrix. The base year

population is derived from 2006 Census counts and then adjusted to an estimated resident population by small area.

Each year through the forecast period, the population is run against age-specific birth, death and migration rates to

create new population figures.

Housing Unit Model

The housing unit model is used to forecast future levels of residential development in areas and the resulting impact

on the total population and the number of households. This model is critical in giving population forecasts credibility,

especially in areas where there are residential development constraints and where historical migration patterns would

be expected to change.

The housing unit model is based on forecasting a number of variables. These include total population living in private

and non-private dwellings, the number of households and the number of dwellings. The share of housing stock that

does not contain households is known as the vacancy rate. The population living in private dwellings divided by the


Page 25

number of households is known as the average household size.

These variables have changing relationships over time, as households undergo normal demographic processes,

such as family formation and ageing. Levels of residential development, vacancy rates and average household size

(see housing propensity model below) are used as the drivers of the model. Every year there is an assumption about

the level of residential development activity, which adds to the stock of dwellings in an area. This stock of dwellings is

multiplied by the vacancy rate, which gives the total number of vacant dwellings and the total number of occupied

private dwellings (households). Households are multiplied by the assumed average household size for the year to

derive the new number of persons living in private dwellings. The average household size is derived from the

household propensity model (see below).

Population in non-private dwellings is modelled separately. A non-private dwelling is a form of housing, which is

communal in nature. Examples of non-private dwellings include nursing homes, student accommodation, nursing

quarters, military barracks and prisons. In forecasting the number of persons in non-private dwellings, the population

is analysed according to the different types of living arrangements. Decisions about future changes may be based on

local knowledge through consultation with institutions or local government if there are a large number of people living

in non-private dwellings.

Household Propensity Model

This model is used to integrate the cohort component and housing unit models to ensure consistency between the

outputs of both models. The model works by assuming that the age structure of the population is an indicator of

household size and type. These differences are assumed at the local area based on the household type and size

from the 2006 Census.

The population is divided into household types based on five year age groups and sex. Each of these household

types has an associated household size. From this relationship, all the household forming population (adults and any

non-dependents) effectively represent a share of a household. Dependents in a household (children) represent no

share of a household, although their departure frequently drives demand for housing in the region. Lone persons

represent 1 or 100% of a household. Couples with dependents represent 50% of household. Couples without

dependents represent almost 50% of a household (as they can include related adults). Lone parents represent 100%

of a household. Group household members' and other household members' shares vary according to the region

(20%-45%, 5 persons to 2.5 persons per household)

These relationships are extrapolated forward from 2006 with some adjustments, depending on the type of area. While

the overall trend assumes that a greater share of the population will live in smaller households at all age groups in the

future, many areas will go against this trend, depending on their place within the life cycle of suburbs. The projected

decrease in the fertility rate and resulting likelihood of smaller families reinforces the assumption that a greater share

of the population will live as couples and alone in the future.


Page 26

Supporting info

Household & suburb life cycle

Household life cyles

The sorts of households that people live in and changing preferences over time affects the way in which a population

changes. As people grow from children to adults and into old age, they change the sorts of households that they live

in. The traditional path has been to start as a child in a family household, move into a group or lone person

household as a youth, becoming a part of a couple relationship within 5-10 years. Rearing of children is followed by

an ‘empty-nester’ period and ultimately being a lone person, as partners die.

Understanding the changes that people make at different ages in their life, and the different types of housing they are

likely to consume at those life stages is an important factor in forecasting future population and household types. The

life stage which the majority of households in an area are going through gives an insight into its location in the suburb

life-cycle (see below), and the likely life-path of those households in the future.

Suburb life cycles

The dominant household types present in a suburb or town - where the majority of the populations sit in the

household life path - dictate in part the role and function of the area. This is shown by its place in the "suburb life

cycle".

New areas are typically settled by young households (young couples and young families, perhaps some mature

families). As the families grow and mature, household size increases. After initial rapid development, most households


Page 27

"age in place", with slowly shifting demand for services, facilities and dwelling types.

As households age further and children begin to leave home, the average household size decreases, resulting in

more empty nester (two person) households, often still living in large family homes. Family breakups can also result in

single parent families and lone person households. If a suburb can't attract young families back to the area, it slowly

becomes populated by older couples whose children have left home and older lone persons whose partners have

died, resulting in declining population for some time.

Alternatively, if a suburb is in a location close to economic drivers of change, it may be able to attract families to move

back into the older dwellings in the area, increasing household size and population again. This will generally happen

sooner, with less loss of services if the area has a diversity of housing options suiting a wide variety of household

types. Empty nesters are likely to downsize into lower maintenance properties, freeing up larger format housing for

families to move into, and continue the cycle again. The loop in the diagram represents the process of sustainability

of an LGA (or suburb), if it can attract families back into older housing in the area. Depending on the proximity of an

area to work and education it may also attract young lone persons and group households. The attractiveness of an

area to family groups, group and lone person households is shown in the migration assumptions section.

Generally, more diverse communities are more sustainable in the long term, as they are able to maintain a range of

services and facilities useful to all age groups. Certain policy responses can influence the suburb life cycle in different

directions.


Page 28

Supporting info

Data notes

Base population estimates

The population figures used in the forecasts for 2006 are derived from estimated resident population from the

Australian Bureau of Statistics. These figures are published at the Statistical Local Area level, which are extrapolated

to Census Collection District (CCDs) and then aggregated to the chosen small area, sometime splitting CCDs if

necessary.

These figures are subject to change or updating from time to time, most notably after Census release (usually one to

two years after the Census is conducted).

.id is currently in the process of updating forecasts to reflect results from the 2011 Census. The first step involves an

update of the existing 2006 based forecasts. Net change in dwellings from the 2011 Census is added to the 2006-11

period and Estimated Resident Population by age and sex is matched at 2011 for each small area. The text at the top

right hand corner of the home page will indicate whether this process has been undertaken for these forecasts.

Base household estimates

The household estimates used in the forecasts for 2006 were based on age and sex-specific population propensities

by different household types. Usual residents’ estimates by Census Collection District were extrapolated to Estimated

Resident Population and then multiplied by household factors to give estimated ‘Resident Households’.

The multiplying factor varies depending on the household type (and the area), such as a factor of 1 for persons living

in lone person households to 0.5 for an adult in couple families with dependent households. Children and other

dependents, such as elderly parents, are not assumed to ‘form’ households.


Page 29

Supporting info

Glossary

Age Specific Propensities (birth and death)

This relates to the modelling of births and deaths. At each year of age, there is a certain statistical likelihood of a person dying or giving birth. These age specific propensity rates are applied to the base and forecast population for each year of the forecast period.

Ageing in Place

This refers to an existing resident population ageing in their current location, as distinct from other impacts on future population such as births, deaths and in and out migration.

Average annual percentage change

A calculation of the average change in total population for each individual year.

Average household size

The average number of persons resident in each occupied private dwelling. Calculated as the number of persons in occupied private dwellings divided by the number of occupied private dwellings. This excludes persons living in non-private dwellings, such as prisons, military bases, nursing homes etc.

'Bottom up' forecast

Population forecast based on assumptions made at the local area level. Local drivers of change such as land stocks and local area migration form the basis.

Broadhectare Land or Sites

Broadhectare land refers to undeveloped land zoned for residential development on the fringe of the established metropolitan area. These areas are generally used for rural purposes until residential subdivision takes place. This type of land is also referred to as ‘greenfield’.

Commencement

The construction of a new dwelling (or beginning of).

Dwelling

A habitable residential building.

Dwelling Stock

The supply of dwellings (either occupied or unoccupied) in a given geographic area.

Empty Nesters

Parents whose children have left the family home to establish new households elsewhere.

Estimated Resident Occupied Private Dwellings (EROPD)

This measure attempts to increase the scope of Occupied Private Dwellings definition to include an estimate of SPD’s that were temporarily unoccupied at the time of the Census (i.e. the resident was away for an extended period of time and did not fill in a Census form). This measure is not available from the Census and is estimated through the processes described in the most recent Victorian Department of Planning & Community Development population forecasts for Victoria. This measure yields much higher estimates of occupancy rates than the usual OPD measure.

Estimated Resident Population (ERP)

This is the estimate of the population based on their usual residence. The ERP at the time of the Census is calculated as the sum of the enumerated (counted) population plus persons temporarily absent less persons who are non-permanent (visitor) residents. An undercount of population by small area at Census time is also accounted for. The ERP used in these forecasts is then backdated to June 30. The ERP for forecast years are based on adding to the estimated population the components of natural increase and net migration.

Forecast Period

In this report, the forecast period is from 2006 to 2031. Most data on the website has focused on the period from 2006 to 2021.

Household


Page 30

One or more persons living in a structural private dwelling.

In-centre development

Residential development based on increasing dwelling densities around suburb and town centres. Usually around existing transport nodes and service infrastructure, rather than developing previously undeveloped land on the urban fringe.

'Infill' Development

Residential development, usually of a relatively small scale, on redevelopment sites in established urban areas. This usually takes place on land previously used for another urban purpose such as industry or schools. Also referred to as ‘intensification’ of existing areas.

Mature families

One and two parent families with older children, generally of secondary and tertiary school age.

Migration

The movement of people or households from one location to another.

Natural Increase

The increase in population based on the births minus deaths, not including the impact of migration.

Net Household Additions

The overall increase in occupied dwellings, determined by the level of new dwelling construction that is permanently occupied, or conversion of non-permanently occupied dwellings to permanently occupied minus demolitions.

Non-private dwellings

These dwellings include persons resident in establishments such as prisons, student or nurses’ accommodation, nursing homes, military facilities, and hospitals.

Occupancy Rate

The proportion of structural private dwellings that are occupied by a household.

Occupied Private Dwellings (OPD)

These are all Structural Private Dwellings (SPD’s) that are occupied by a household. Excluded are dwellings that were under construction, being demolished or where the house was temporarily vacant.

Private dwellings

Self contained dwelling including houses (attached or detached), flats, townhouses etc. Retirement village units are also private dwellings as are houses or flats rented from the government.

Redevelopment Sites

These are sites in already established areas not originally developed for residential uses, but identified for conversion to residential use. Examples include former school sites, quarries, derelict industrial land, former petrol stations and the like.

Structural Private Dwellings (SPD)

This is the stock of houses, flats, and other dwelling types. The SPD is the usual base stock from which commencements are added and demolitions deducted.

'Top down' forecast

Population forecast based on assumptions made at the State and National level and allocated into smaller regions e.g. Local Government Areas, suburbs.

Visitor population forecasts

Visitor population forecasts are based on 'non-event' affected, mid-week visitor levels. The 2006 base figures are sourced from Census, with an adjustment for undercount similar to that applied to the resident population (see Estimated Resident Population). Overall forecast levels are based on long term trends in visitor population growth in the Shire, with specific reference to current proposals for the purposes of allocation in the short-term. Visitor population forecasts have been included as they are a significant component of total population and may require specific servicing arrangements pertinent to resource allocation within Council.

Young families

One and two parent families with young children, generally of pre and primary school age.


Page 31

Supporting info

References

● Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006 and 2011 Censuses of Population and Housing. ● Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2006 Estimated Resident Population, June 30 2006, Cat. No: 3235.0. ● Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2011 Estimated Resident Population (preliminary), June 30 2011, Cat. No:

3235.0.


Page 33

Documents

State Of The Nation