State of the Global Change Grand Challenge

Report to the Portfolio Committee on Science and Technology

15 September 2010

Last time we had the privilege of presenting to the Portfolio almost a year to the date –

16 September 2009

Structure of the presentation

• Quick re-cap on the Grand Challenge – what we plan to achieve,

– impact measures,

– priority initiatives

• Progress to date

• Plans for the next 12 months– Human Capital Development

– Key Research programmes

– Risk and Vulnerability Atlas

Design drivers

The form, shape, and structure of the Global Change Grand Challenge is a South African project that must support science and technology as well as key social, economic development, and environmental management objectives

Global Change Grand

ChallengeNational

Sustainable Development Framework,

2008

Climate Change Response

Strategy, 2004 and current

Research and Development

Strategy, 2002

White Paper on Science and Technology,

1996

National Industrial Policy

Framework, 2007

Sectoral Policies (water,

agriculture, etc.)

Primary Impact Measures

• Extent to which scientific understanding of global change has improved as a result of South African research efforts

• Extent to which South Africa contributes to the development and deployment of innovative technologies that support appropriate responses to the negative impacts of environmental changes, particularly climate change

• Extent to which decision-makers have used improved scientific understanding and technological development to achieve sustainable development goals in South Africa and Africa

Scorecard

• Four key dimensions– Human capital development and

transformation– Development of knowledge and research

assets– Impact on policy, social, and economic

development– Growing South Africa as a science destination

A

Understanding a changing planet

B

Reducing the human footprint

C

Adapting the way we live

D

Innovation for sustainability

1. Observation and monitoring

2. Dynamics of the oceans around southern Africa

3. Dynamics of the complex internal earth systems

4. Linking the land, air and sea

5. Improving model predictions at different scales

1. Waste minimisation methods and technologies

2. Conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services

3. Institutional integration to manage ecosystems and ecosystem services

4. Doing more with less

1. Preparing for rapid change and extreme events

2. Planning for sustainable urban development in a South African context

3. Water security for South Africa

4. Food and fibre security for South Africa

1. Dynamics of transition at different scales - mechanisms of innovation and learning

2. Resilience and capability

3. Options for greening the developmental state

4. Technological innovation for sustainable social-ecological systems.

5. Social Learning for sustainability, adaptation, innovation and resilience.

Centre of Excellence

Applied Centre for Climate and Earth Systems Studies

(ACCESS)

Global Change,

Society, and Sustainability

South African Environmental

Observation Network (SAEON)

Africa Earth Observation

Network (AEON) programmes

Inkaba ye Africa/ Ikhure Africa

Space Agency (Global Change

Monitoring Network)

South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas (R&V Atlas)

SA Polar Research

Entity

Bureau on Global Change Science

Global Change Performance and Investment Council

Knowledge Brokering

Support Unit

Mitigation and adaptation technologies

• Technologies for environmental monitoring and observation

• Waste management and minimisation industry

• Water sector

• Food and fibre-related technologies

• Technologies to support resilience in the built environment

Notable Progress

• Applied Centre for Climate and Earth Systems (ACCESS) in place

• AEON-related programmes continue to deliver, particularly new human capital

• Development of the electronic Risk and Vulnerability Atlas portal

• Call issued for the establishment of Risk and Vulnerability Service Centres at rural universities

• Planning for new integrated Masters programme/s

Key priorities – 2010/ 11

• Bureau for Global Change Science• Risk and Vulnerability Atlas and Service Centres• HCD interventions• Initiation of research programme on ‘Global

Change, Society, and Sustainability’• International partnerships• Technology development roadmaps• Africa partnership

Atlas – Phases 1 & 2

• Phase 1 – Theme pages within electronic spatial portal and hard copy Atlas

• Phase 2 – Theme pages populated &

maintained– Ensure that the portal is usable– Orientation & stakeholder outreach– Tracking use (feedbacks to

usability)

Theme page structure

Themes represent a point of entry for users of the Atlas interested in particular sectors and/or subjects. Information, data and cited studies may further appear on more than one theme page, indicating the cross-sectoral nature of particular issues in South Africa.

Pages & timeframe

1. Socio-economic (Phase 1)2. Atmospheric/climate (Phase 1) 3. Disaster Management (interoperability with NDMC system) (2011-12)4. Agriculture (2010-11)5. Forestry (2011-12)6. Water (surface & ground) (2010-11)7. Health (2011-12) 8. Air quality/Emissions (2010-11)9. Human Settlements (2010-11)10.Biodiversity (terrestrial & freshwater) (2010-11)11.Coastal/marine (2010-11)

Component 1:High resolution weather forecasting(1-10 days)

Weather & ClimateAtmospheric Modelling Strategic Initiative

(AMSI)

Component 2:Long-range forecasting(weeks to months)

Component 3:Climate Change projections (including Climate Systems Analysis Group, UCT)

Component 4:Model Development

SEAMLESS FORECASTING: Using common forecast systems to predict for multiple time scales

Operational Forecasting

Climate Change Strategic Initiative – modelled impacts on key sectors + adaptation support

R&V Service Centres

• Targeted at rural universities

• Two complementary objectives– Capacity development– Decision support

• Maximum of 5 Centres to be established over the next 18-24 months

Bureau – enhancing science-policy links

Challenge 1:-Science being generated does not meet the needs of policy-makers

Challenge 2:-The work of

researchers are not effectively

informing policy decision

Bureau for Global Change Research

- Committee made up of an equal mix of policy-makers and researchers

- Specific focus is on complex systems and inter-disciplinary knowledge

- Engage with the current science of how this can be better integrated into policy

- Identify specific research priorities to be funded as part of the global change grand challenge

- Feed into national planning and sectoral planning process

Human Capital Development

• Fully aligned with long-term environmental skills development process led by the Department of Environmental Affairs

• Flagship – new innovative multi-disciplinary and interdisciplinary programmes (mainly at Masters level)

• Close engagement with business and government who will be the eventual employers of

• Targeted research chairs and other HCD support initiatives

International and African Partnerships

• Strong portfolio of international partnerships– Need to be refined, improved and targeted to our

objectives

• SADC-level process– Process has started to developed a SADC-wide

science and technology plan to support climate change

– Four focus areas – mitigation, adaptation, risk and vulnerability and data and observation

Thank You