State of the Art 2010 Oct 13 2005 Moscow - Russell …russarchibald.com/StateoftheArt2010Oct132005Moscow.pdfVisit “Successful Delivery Toolkit” CD and other ... Maturity of Project

State of the Art of Project Management in 2010

Russell D. ArchibaldFellow PMI and APM/IPMA, PhD (Hon), MSc, PMP

"Evolution and Management"The Second International Annual Conference

of the Moscow Chapter of PMIOctober 12-13, 2005, Moscow

October 13-14, 2005PMI Moscow Chapter 2nd

International Annual Conference 2

Where I’m Coming From

1959: in charge of PERT on POLARIS solid rocket, Aerojet GeneralPMI Member No. 6, APM (UK) No. 3Clients in 14 countries on 4 continents; books in 6 languagesGlobal perspective across a number of PM application areas/industries



Objective of My Presentation

To convey a comprehensive picture of the worldwide state of the art

in project management 5 years from now



The World of Project Management: Six Players

1. Project Buyers (owners of projects)2. Project Sellers (contractors or

developers of projects)3. Consultants/trainers in PM 4. PM software developers and vendors5. Universities6. Professional associations



Six Areas of Prediction: 2010

1. Strategic Project Management2. Specialization by Project Category3. Total Project Life-Cycle Management4. PM Systems, Tools and Practices 5. PM Discipline and Individuals6. The “Profession” of PM



1. Strategic Project Management

2010:Best organizations will integrate strategic management, project management, and operations management through project portfolio management



Project Portfolio ManagementPortfolios link corporate strategy with project management‘Portfolio steering group’ holds responsibilityMust implement an integrated project portfolio management processVarious types/categories of project portfolios

StrategicObjective

1

OperationalStrategy 1.3



Project 1.1.3

Project 1.1.2

Project 1.1.1

Project 1.2.2

Project 1.2.1

Project 1.3.3

Project 1.3.2

Project 1.3.1

Program 1.1

Project Portfolio for Strategic Objective 1



2. Specialization by Project Category

2010:Widespread use of systematic approach to project categorization and classificationImprovements in

Strategic PMOperational PMPM softwarePM consulting, education, and training



Systematic Approach

Analyze purposes and usesof project categorization

Systematize and prioritize them

Relate them to project characteristics, attributes, and criteria: Categories



The Purposes/Methods Matrix for Project Categorization/PC

One axis: Purposes and Uses of PCSecond axis: Methods of categorizing and classifying projects within the categoriesEnter codes to indicate which methods serve which purpose

4. PM People Development

3. PM Education

2. Operational

1. Strategic

OtherDevelopment or

Deployment

Project End Result

Market Share & Strat. Intent

Methods >Purposes v

Indicate usefulness with codesIndicate usefulness with codes

Project Categorization Purposes/Methods Matrix

Source: Archibald 2005, Lille, France



Categories Based on End Results

1. Aerospace/Defense2. Business &

Organizational Change

3. Communication Systems

4. Events5. Facilities

6. Information Systems7. International

Development8. Media &

Entertainment9. Product/Service

Development10. Research & Dev.

Source: Archibald 2003, p 35-36



Hierarchical and Multi-Dimensional Categorization

Category level1 2 3 4Major category

Sub-category 2Sub-category 3

Sub-category 4Similar to P/WBS approach



Example:Category 5. Facilities Projects

1. Facility decommissioning

2. Facility demolition

3. Facility maintenance & modification

4. Facility design/procure/construct1.Civil 2.Energy 3.Environmental 4.Industrial 5.Commercial 6.Residential 7.Ships 8.Other:

5. Other: ?



Classifying Within Sub-Categories: Many possible Criteria

Project sizeMajor & minor projectsProject complexityExternal or internal customerDegree of customer involvementLevels of risk, who takes responsibility Stand-alone versus create supporting infrastructureStandard versus transitional Mega projects: not categorizableOther: ? (See Crawford, Hobbs and Turner, 2002, 2004 and 2005)

Simple Example: Category/Class Matrix

5.5 Other

5.4.8 Other

5.4.7 Ships

5.4.6 Residential

5.4.5 Commercial

5.4.4 Industrial

5.4.3 Environmental

5.4.2 Energy

5.4.1 Civil

5.4 Design/proc/const

5.3 Maintenance & Modification

5.2 Demolition

5.1 Decommissioning

5. Physical Facilities

Level 3Level 2Category

Risk Level: 1 to 10

CustomerInvolvem

ent: Hi or Low

Customer: Internal or

External

Complex-ity:

1 to 10

Major Projec

t: Yes or

No

Project Size: $M

Classifying Projectswithin

Project Categories & Sub-Categories



Project Categorization Enables Improvements in:

How project buyers and sellers:Strategically select and prioritize projectsOperationally plan and execute their projects:

IndividuallyWithin programs, andWithin project portfolios

Determine their true maturity in PMEducate and train their PM peopleDevelop and manage PM career paths



Organizational Capabilities & Maturity in PM

Many PM Maturity ModelsPMI’s OPM3 (For a critical review see http://www.pmforum.org/pmwt04/viewpoints04-910more.htm )PRINCE2 in UK (http://www.prince2.org.uk/ )Many others

Purposes of these models:Assess current capabilitiesEducateImprove



UK Office of Gov’t Commerce-OGC: Prince2 plus others

Visit www.ogc.gov.uk“Successful Delivery Toolkit” CD and other valuable documents available free“OGC works with government to improve procurement and project/programmemanagement. We also work with suppliers to make the government marketplace more efficient and attractive to business.”



Japanese ApproachJapan’s P2M (Project & Program Management)http://www.pmcc.or.jp/english/p2m.html

Integrated program managementJointly developed by industry and governmentTo date no related maturity model



Maturity of Project Management Within a Category

Different perspective from total organizational PM maturityMaturity must be viewed by project class or categoryThe most mature categories are:

Aerospace/DefenseFacilities



PM Maturity by Project Categories

Research in Brazil:http://www.maturityresearch.com/

Applying the Prado/MMGP maturity model to project categories shown previously.Brazil: 180 million people, strong high-technology industries, 17 PMI chapters



PM Maturity Models2010

At least 2 major models in wide use: PMI’s OPM3, OGC/UK’s PMM 3rd major model will appear: Japan’s P2MTranslations of these will appear in 8 or 10 languagesAdaptations will emerge within specific areas of PM application and project categories



Project Categorization Enables Improvements in: (Cont’d)

PM software applications

Consulting and training in PM services

University offerings in PM

PM Professional associations’ services



3. Total Project Life-Cycle Management

2010:Best PM practitioners (project buyers/owners) will include concept phase plus achievement of project benefits as part of the project management responsibilities



Total Project Life-Cycle Management

Early years: Focus on planning & executing phases2010: Total life cycle management:

Including early conceptual & ‘after’ phasesPortfolio PM links corporate strategy with conceptual life-cycle phase

Include realization of project benefits as part of PM discipline



Realizing Project BenefitsOrganizational change is often required to achieve full benefits from completing a specific project“Business Change Manager” is sometimes appointed in 2005Achieving project benefits will often be included in project life-cycle in 2010Emphasizes importance of Project Sponsor role



Example: Total Life-Cycle Management

New book coming out by Paul Dinsmoreand Terry Cooke-Davies "Right Projects Done Right" “Takes a broad holistic view of projects -- from the project idea all the way through to generation of the benefits proposed by the project”



Project Life-Cycle Models

Predictive

Adaptive, repetitive: Agile PM

Different models for different project categories



Project Life-Cycle ModelsMany life-cycle models are in useThey portray a project as an overall process or systemTheir purposes include:

To enable all to understand overall processTo capture best experience, enable improvementTo relate roles, responsibilities, systems and tools to all elements of the project



Improving the PLCMS

1. Document the integrated project life-cycle model

2. Document & describe the PLCMS3. Re-engineer the integrated process

Apply systems thinking: TOC

4. Implement the improvements5. Repeat these steps as required



Applying Systems Thinking to Project Management

2010Catalogs will exist of life-cycle models for each major project categoryWider application of systems thinking and TOC to project life-cycle models will produce continual improvements



4. PM Systems, Tools and Practices

2010Systems fully integrated with corporate ISPM software more specialized to fit project categories or typesWeb-enabled PM used by all; virtual teams commonplaceWireless everywherePM software vendors will begin consolidation phase of a mature industry



Project Management Software

2010Little change in overall picture (see next slide)Probably (?) some consolidationPM software a mature industry?

Software CategoryPMI PM Software Survey 1999

PMBOK® Guide Knowledge Areas

Suites (36) All

Process/Scope Management (19)

Integration Management

Schedule Management (43)

Time Management

Cost Management (27) Cost Management

Resource Management (27)

Human Resources Management

Risk Management and Assessment (15)

Risk Management

Communications Mgt (17) Subcategories:Graphics Add-ons (21)Timesheets (25)Web Publ/Organ’rs (15)

Communications Management



One or More Corporate PM Systems?

2010Best Practice: One integrated corporate systemAble to link different systems when customer or partner demands other systems



PM and Operations Management

2010Best practice: Project and Operations management will be integrated through corporate-wide Project/Operations Planning and Control System



Integrated Operations Planning and Control

Source: Archibald 2003, p 197



Critical Chain vs Critical Path

Resource buffers quantified in CCRange estimates of duration in CCSome claim great benefits from CCOthers say CPM can be used in same way

2010Critical chain still not widely applied



Russian Resource Critical Path/RCP

Considers all constraintsCalculates resource constrained activity float (similar to CC buffers)Uses range estimates for duration and resourcesProduces success probabilities for risk management

(Liberzon/Archibald 2003)



5. PM Discipline and Individuals 2010

Certification will beBased more on proven capabilitiesSharply focused on specific areas of application and/or project typesAwarded at 3 or 4 levels

Demonstrated PM capabilities (not necessarily certification) will be a prerequisite for senior management positionsGovernmental licensing in PM will not exist



PM Certification ProgramsPMI: 2 levels: PMP & CAPM128,328 PMPs on July 31, 2005Heavily based on knowledge of PMBOKCritics say PMP is:

Not based enough on capabilityNot sufficiently application orientedNot certification of project managers per se Only oriented to managing one project



PMI CertificationPMBOK now available in 8 languagesMoving toward

Multi-project program and portfolio managementApplication specific certification

PMI College of Scheduling now working on a potential Scheduling Certification Program



IPMA Certification: 4 Levels

A: Certificated Programme Director/CPDB: Certificated Project Manager/CPMC: Registered Project Management Professional/RPMPD: Project Management Fachman/Fachfrau/PMF



APM (UK) Certification

Currently 3 levels:Certified Project Manager (IPMA level B)Practitioner Qualification (IPMA level C)APMP (IPMA level D)

APM Group accredits trainers for OGChttp://www.apmgroup.co.uk/



Other Certification ProgramsAustralian Institute of PM/IAPM:

3 levelsBased on National Competency Standards for PM

American Society for Advancement of PM/asapm (http://www.asapm.org/ ):

Developing 4 level IPMA certification programNASA: 4 level internal certification http://www.appl.nasa.gov/businessunits/career/pmdp/index.htmlOthers:



6. The ‘Profession’ of Project Management

2010PM will merge into general management, become required competency for top executives, similar to financial management competencyMany will still say it is a profession but no governmental licensing will existPM will be widely known and used by managers at all levels



Chief Projects Officer/CPO2010

Perhaps 20% of companies will have a CPO

Does for PM what the CFO does for financial managementDirects the Project Management Office/PMOAt corporate and/or operating division levels



Licensing of People in PM

True profession requires official licensingNo country, state or province presently licenses project managers or specialistsPM is a management discipline, not a true profession



The ‘Profession’ of PM

Discussions continue around the world: Management discipline or ‘profession’?Experienced practitioners:

“PM is a core competency for every executive and professional”“PM is a sub set of general management; little probability that it will become a ‘legally based profession’



ReferencesArchibald, Russell D., “State of the Art of Project Management:

2005,” PMI Milwaukee/Southeast Wisconsin Chapter Professional Development Day, Milwaukee, WI October 29, 2005 (download at http://www.pmi-milwaukee.org/ )

Ibid, “Purposed and Methods of Practical Project Categorization,” 5th International PM Workshop, Institut Supérieur de GestionIndustrielle, Groupe ESC Lille, France, 22-26 August 2005 (download at http://elearning.esc-lille.fr/ISGI0760EN/ , then <documents and links>, then <IW 5….>, then <Russ Archibald>)

Ibid, “A Global System for Categorizing Projects,” 2nd Latin American Forum—PM in Government, Brasilia, Brazil, 21-22 September, 2004

Ibid, Managing High-Technology Programs and Projects, 2003. NY: Wiley. Russian, 2004, Moscow

Liberzon, Vladimir, & Russell D. Archibald, “From Russia with Love”, PMI Congress, The Hague, 2003 (download at www.russarchibald.com , then <author>, <recent papers>)



Thank you for listening!

Questions? Rebuttals?

Arguments?

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Documents

State of the Art 2010 Oct 13 2005 Moscow - Russell …russarchibald.com/StateoftheArt2010Oct132005Moscow.pdfVisit “Successful Delivery Toolkit” CD and other ... Maturity of Project